全球供應鏈中斷對宏觀經濟結果的因果效應：證據與理論.pdf

《全球供應鏈中斷對宏觀經濟結果的因果效應：證據與理論.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《全球供應鏈中斷對宏觀經濟結果的因果效應：證據與理論.pdf（25頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions onMacroeconomics Outcomes:Evidence and TheoryBai,Fernandez-Villaverde,Li,and ZanettiGeorge Alessandria(Rochester)IMF|November 2024SummaryI Isolating aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions(SCD)big&un-resolved issue.I Berlin Blockade and Air

2、liftI Suez closings in 56&67-75I 1973 Oil shock started with Oil EmbargoI Port StrikesI COVIDI SanctionsI Challenge:SCD rarely alone/exogenous.I Easy to identify micro effects(Barrot and Sauvignan,2016 Carvalho,et al.,2021)I This paper:I Propose a novel measure based on ship movementsI Develop a mod

3、el to identify effectsI Recover role of foreign supply disruptions.I Convincing.Need more work in this spirit!1SummaryI Isolating aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions(SCD)big&un-resolved issue.I Berlin Blockade and AirliftI Suez closings in 56&67-75I 1973 Oil shock started with Oil EmbargoI

4、 Port StrikesI COVIDI SanctionsI Challenge:SCD rarely alone/exogenous.I Easy to identify micro effects(Barrot and Sauvignan,2016 Carvalho,et al.,2021)I This paper:I Propose a novel measure based on ship movementsI Develop a model to identify effectsI Recover role of foreign supply disruptions.I Conv

5、incing.Need more work in this spirit!1SummaryI Isolating aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions(SCD)big&un-resolved issue.I Berlin Blockade and AirliftI Suez closings in 56&67-75I 1973 Oil shock started with Oil EmbargoI Port StrikesI COVIDI SanctionsI Challenge:SCD rarely alone/exogenous.I E

6、asy to identify micro effects(Barrot and Sauvignan,2016 Carvalho,et al.,2021)I This paper:I Propose a novel measure based on ship movementsI Develop a model to identify effectsI Recover role of foreign supply disruptions.I Convincing.Need more work in this spirit!1What is a supply disruption?I Incre

7、ase in cost or time to get input?I If its a cost,is response to tariff similar?or foreign productivity?or even domesticproductivity?I Know a lot about dynamics to tariff/foreign shocks at firm,product,aggregate.I But,dont generally think they affect price level by themselves.I More likely its relate

8、d to time.I Cant get what you want today at any cost.I How long do firms have to wait for inputs?And why?Can they speed things up?I Shipping or production frictions?Does it matter for downstream firms?I Less explored in aggregateBut time is a common consideration for firms in trade.2What is a supply

9、 disruption?I Increase in cost or time to get input?I If its a cost,is response to tariff similar?or foreign productivity?or even domesticproductivity?I Know a lot about dynamics to tariff/foreign shocks at firm,product,aggregate.I But,dont generally think they affect price level by themselves.I Mor

10、e likely its related to time.I Cant get what you want today at any cost.I How long do firms have to wait for inputs?And why?Can they speed things up?I Shipping or production frictions?Does it matter for downstream firms?I Less explored in aggregateBut time is a common consideration for firms in trad

11、e.2What is a supply disruption?I Increase in cost or time to get input?I If its a cost,is response to tariff similar?or foreign productivity?or even domesticproductivity?I Know a lot about dynamics to tariff/foreign shocks at firm,product,aggregate.I But,dont generally think they affect price level

12、by themselves.I More likely its related to time.I Cant get what you want today at any cost.I How long do firms have to wait for inputs?And why?Can they speed things up?I Shipping or production frictions?Does it matter for downstream firms?I Less explored in aggregateBut time is a common consideratio

13、n for firms in trade.2International Trade Takes More TimeI Moving goods around the world takes longer than inside of a country(nature of frictions,transportation,policy)and increases delivery uncertainty.I Leads firms to hold extra inventories(goods in process and larger buffer stocks).I Premium can

14、 be quite large 2x as domestic only transactions.I The time has fallen with new technologies(containerization,air freight).I There are more transport opportunities internationally-inventories depends on the abilityto access fast but expensive modes of transport in response to supply and demandshocks

15、.I Inventories were key to allowing for shutdowns in COVIDI Production fell to zero,consumption held up,absorbed by inventoryI Fast transport allowed us to restart the economy by moving the most valuable goods.I Example:5/20-12/20:Almost all Personal Protective Equipment(PPE)shipped by Air.3Internat

16、ional Trade Takes More TimeI Moving goods around the world takes longer than inside of a country(nature of frictions,transportation,policy)and increases delivery uncertainty.I Leads firms to hold extra inventories(goods in process and larger buffer stocks).I Premium can be quite large 2x as domestic

17、 only transactions.I The time has fallen with new technologies(containerization,air freight).I There are more transport opportunities internationally-inventories depends on the abilityto access fast but expensive modes of transport in response to supply and demandshocks.I Inventories were key to all

18、owing for shutdowns in COVIDI Production fell to zero,consumption held up,absorbed by inventoryI Fast transport allowed us to restart the economy by moving the most valuable goods.I Example:5/20-12/20:Almost all Personal Protective Equipment(PPE)shipped by Air.3050100150Relative to Pre-Covid2019m120

19、20m12021m12022m12023m12024m1ProductionSalesInventoryLast date:9/24,Source:CensusMotor Vehicle Quantity Dynamics4Delivery delays in US:Domestic and Imports2016201720182019202020210.10.20.30.40.50.60.7share of value by airTotal imports(right)Share by air(left)012345total import value(billions USD)5Mea

20、suring DelaysI Lots of measures of delays.I Most PMIs diffusion index(only direction)I ISM has a long measure of delaysI Alternatively can use unfilled orders series.I Logistic industry has measuresI COVID experience.6Delivery delays in US:Domestic and Imports406080100Days2019m62020m62021m62022m6Ove

21、rallSource:Days(ISM),Shipping from China(Freightos)Last:September 2022.7Delivery delays in US:Domestic and Imports406080100Days2019m62020m62021m62022m6OverallImportChina/BoatSource:Days(ISM),Shipping from China(Freightos)Last:12/22.7Domestic and foreign supplier delays(Census,Pulse survey)2020-09202

22、0-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-0380100120140160180200share of respondents(8/9/21=100)Foreign supplier delaysDomestic supplierdelaysDelays in delivery/shipping to customersLast observation:March 28,2022In the last week,did this business have any of the following?8Changes in

23、 Time:Delays,Stockouts,and ProductionI On impact,delays lead to stockouts.I Stockouts affect the products with highest demand and lowest inventories(misallocation).I With roundabout production,these stockouts are a constraint on production.I Could increase production as firms will order sooner.I In

24、Alessandria et al.,2023;Alessandria et al.,2022 we explore the effect of delays in amodel with logistic frictions(fixed costs,shipping times,and risk)that differ for local andglobal supply chains.I Below we compare a shock that delays the arrival of inputs by 30 days with a shock thatequal the extra

25、 holding costs9Trade Costs vs International delivery delays:Model10Changes in Time:Delays,Stockouts,and PricesI With delays,sales are constrained by inventory.I If firms raise prices then prices are allocative.I But most firms dont raise prices.There is rationing and stockoutsI Statistical agencies

26、dont adjust for this(missing products get the inflation level ofcontinuing products).I These stockouts preced the recent increase in inflation(Cavallo and Kryvstvov,2023)I Is the issue that fiscal/monetary authorities were responding to wrong prices?11Leading to More StockoutsRiteAide Fall 202212Sto

27、ckouts Lead Price Changes50100150200stockout-202468Price of Goods2019m1 2020m1 2021m1 2022m1 2023m1 2024m1Price of Goodsstockout13ConclusionsI Important research agenda studying supply disruptions on global economyI Need to measure these disruptions and understand how firms prepare/adjust to them.I

28、Need a model with time/delays and inventories.I Disruptions can be surprises or anticipated.I Future tariffs or planned shutdowns(holidays).14Delays and Inflation Highly Correlated-5051015Inflation(%)50100150Current Delivery Times(Days)19501960197019801990200020102020Delivery DaysInflationSource:Day

29、s(ISM),Inflation(BLS)15Inventories and Pricing II Firms hold inventories:I To economize on fixed order costs(f)&holding costs(r+)I As a buffer owing to delivery lags&demand or supply uncertaintyI Inventory levels vary by product&supplier,range between 1-6 months supply.I Inventories held throughout

30、supply chain(manufacturers,wholesalers,retailers)I Total inventories large:about 1/3 of a years goods production in the US,more in ROW.I Crucial to deal with March/April 20 shutdowns16Delays happening when inventory levels are low11.21.41.61.8Inventory-sales ratio(eop)2016m1 2017m1 2018m1 2019m1 202

31、0m1 2021m1 2022m1 2023m1RetailManufacturesLast date:8/22,Source:Census17bibliographyAlessandria,George et al.(2022).“Supply chain recessions.”Unpublished manuscript.Alessandria,George et al.(2023).“The aggregate effects of global and local supply chaindisruptions:20202022.”Journal of International Economics 146.NBER InternationalSeminar on Macroeconomics 2022,p.103788.18