全球碎片化對新興市場的影響.pdf

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1、Impact of Global Fragmentation on Emerging Markets1.Central Banking2.International Spillovers of AE policies3.EMs challenges4.How can EMs benefit?Fragmentation-impact estimates are from:The Price of Fragmentation(w/di Giovanni,Silva,Soylu,Yildirim)S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan1/4Future BlocsUnaffiliated EMs

2、 China Ally EMs ChinaUS AlliesUnited States Blocs:from Gopinath,Gourinchas,Presbitero and Topalova.Dark color:more open,more connected,higher importedintermediate shares(7.7%to 11.4%).Thick arrows:higher share of intermediate inputs from thatbloc(1.4%to 56%).S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan2/4Full Trade-War be

3、tween US and ChinaLarger the trade cost shock,higher the inflation if you are in the trade-war-blocInflation(%)Trade Cost Change20%50%90%China Ally EMs0.8932.2373.971Unaffiliated EMs0.0220.0850.193Higher unemployment in EMs that are affiliated with China bloc Unemployment(%)Trade Cost Change20%50%90

4、%China Ally EMs1.8784.1156.434Unaffiliated EMs0.0640.1540.264S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan3/4Takeaways1.Central Banking:A possible“lack of”inflation-unemployment trade-off Higher inflation and higher unemployment in EMs(if they are part of the trade war).2.International Spillovers:AE policies that lead to h

5、igh interest rates Higher global cost of capital for EMs,higher risk premia,lower investment,lower growth3.EMs challenges:Temptation to adopt zero-sum strategies Deviating from what worked:global integration,strong institutions,policy credibility4.How can EMs benefit?By not joining to trade war By k

6、eeping up with the reforms to eliminate domestic distortions(financial frictions)By evidence-based policy making(policy credibility)By having strong institutions(central bank independence).so attract capital flows,allocate it efficiently to finance growth and green transition.S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan4/

7、4Takeaways1.Central Banking:A possible“lack of”inflation-unemployment trade-off Higher inflation and higher unemployment in EMs(if they are part of the trade war).2.International Spillovers:AE policies that lead to high interest rates Higher global cost of capital for EMs,higher risk premia,lower in

8、vestment,lower growth3.EMs challenges:Temptation to adopt zero-sum strategies Deviating from what worked:global integration,strong institutions,policy credibility4.How can EMs benefit?By not joining to trade war By keeping up with the reforms to eliminate domestic distortions(financial frictions)By

9、evidence-based policy making(policy credibility)By having strong institutions(central bank independence).so attract capital flows,allocate it efficiently to finance growth and green transition.S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan4/4Takeaways1.Central Banking:A possible“lack of”inflation-unemployment trade-off High

10、er inflation and higher unemployment in EMs(if they are part of the trade war).2.International Spillovers:AE policies that lead to high interest rates Higher global cost of capital for EMs,higher risk premia,lower investment,lower growth3.EMs challenges:Temptation to adopt zero-sum strategies Deviat

11、ing from what worked:global integration,strong institutions,policy credibility4.How can EMs benefit?By not joining to trade war By keeping up with the reforms to eliminate domestic distortions(financial frictions)By evidence-based policy making(policy credibility)By having strong institutions(centra

12、l bank independence).so attract capital flows,allocate it efficiently to finance growth and green transition.S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan4/4Takeaways1.Central Banking:A possible“lack of”inflation-unemployment trade-off Higher inflation and higher unemployment in EMs(if they are part of the trade war).2.Int

13、ernational Spillovers:AE policies that lead to high interest rates Higher global cost of capital for EMs,higher risk premia,lower investment,lower growth3.EMs challenges:Temptation to adopt zero-sum strategies Deviating from what worked:global integration,strong institutions,policy credibility4.How

14、can EMs benefit?By not joining to trade war By keeping up with the reforms to eliminate domestic distortions(financial frictions)By evidence-based policy making(policy credibility)By having strong institutions(central bank independence).so attract capital flows,allocate it efficiently to finance growth and green transition.S ebnem Kalemli-Ozcan4/4