在地緣政治緊張和政策不確定性下的美國貨幣政策.pdf

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1、See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification,Important Disclosures and Research Analyst AffiliationsCiti Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc.(the Firm),which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the F

2、irm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Certain products(not inconsistent with the authors published research)are available only on Citis portals.Citi Resear

3、chNovember 11,2024Nathan Sheets ACGlobal Chief EconomistNUS Monetary Policy Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Policy UncertaintyThis presentation was approved for distribution on November 11,2024;the disclosures in Appendix A1 are current as of the same date.2The Context for Monetary PolicyPublic Debt&

4、Fiscal Deficit Projections(IMF)*As of 2024*Data are for general government.Source:Citi Research,IMF,Caldara and Iacoviello(2022),“Measuring Geopolitical Risk”Geopolitical Risk IndexAs of October 2024Geopolitical Risk Index:Decadal AveragesAs of October 2024General Government Debt:2023(%of GDP)Defici

5、t:2024-26 Avg(%of GDP)0255075100125150876543210USJapan (250,4.0)GermanyFranceItalySpainUKAustraliaCanadaChinaIndonesiaRussiaIndiaSaudi ArabiaKoreaTaiwanPolandBrazilMexicoDM CountriesEM Countries20102012201420162018202020222024501001502002503003501985-2019 AverageIndex,1985-2019=1003How Well Has the

6、Fed Navigated the Challenges?OIS Rate:5yr 5yr ForwardAs of November 2024Inflation ExpectationsAs of September/November 2024Source:Citi Research,BLS,U-Mich,Bloomberg,Haver AnalyticsKey PointsLong-term inflation expectations have been well anchored.Markets have expected that the Fed will do its job.Bu

7、t theres uncertainty about where the Fed Funds rate will land over the longer run.How tight will the Fed need to be?Percent201920202021202220232024012345678Core CPI(YoY%)Breakeven:5yr 5yr ForwardPercentJan-21 Jul-21Jan-22 Jul-22Jan-23 Jul-23Jan-24 Jul-245432103-4%Range4Some Further Factors Likely to

8、 Shape Monetary PolicySource:Citi ResearchPotential Implications of the US Election:TariffsTightening of immigration policyDeregulation(disinflationary?)Threats to Feds independence?Some Longer-Term Forces:Shifting contours of globalizationEfforts to achieve net zero?Aging demographicsAdvent of AICi

9、ti ResearchIf you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document,please call USA 1-888-800-5008(TTY:711),from outside the US+1-210-677-3788Appendix A-1ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for t

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