【公司研究】神州信息-銀行創新加速核心業務有望加速替代-20200609[34頁].pdf

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1、 / 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 9,077 10,146 11,757 13,915 16,693 (+/-)% 11% 12% 16% 18% 20% 42 376 458 566 696 (+/-)% -86% 803% 22% 24% 23% 0.04 0.39 0.47 0.58 0.72 342 38 31 25 20 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 (%) 0.8% 7.4% 8.4% 9.6% 10.7% (%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% () 970 970 970 970 970 2020/6/9 6 17.6

2、2-18.76 14.37 12 9.4519.99 14,235 970 A 970 B/H 0/0 18 -18% -1% 16% 33% 50% 2019/62019/92019/122020/3 % 1M 3M 12M -5% -18% 36% -7% -15% 24% + -20200508 -20200316 S0550519100001 13810884820 S0550119110002 15652991086 S0550119110012 18811346899 S0550119120003 18688975825 000555 2020-06-09 2 / 34 1. .

3、4 2. IT201950% . 5 3. IT . 11 3.1. IT. 11 3.2. IT . 13 3.2.1. ITIOE . 13 3.2.2. ITIOE . 14 3.3. 2016. 15 3.4. . 16 3.4.1. Gauss DBAIARMX86 . 18 3.4.2. OceanBaseOracle . 19 3.4.3. PingCAP TiDB . 20 3.5. IT. 21 3.6. . 22 4. . 23 4.1. 2012. 23 4.2. . 25 4.3. . 27 5. . 28 5.1. 2020-2022117.57/139.15/166

4、.93 . 28 5.2. 2020-20224.58/5.66/6.96 . 30 5.3. 2020171-18217.62-18.76 . 31 6. . 31 1 . 5 2 . 6 32019 . 6 42019 . 6 5 . 7 6 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 7 9 . 7 3 / 34 10 . 8 11 . 8 12 . 9 13IT . 9 14IT . 10 15IT . 10 16IT .11 172018IT . 12 182017IT . 12 192018 . 12 202018 . 12 212015 . 14 22 . 15 23SmrtEnsemble .

5、 16 24 . 17 25 . 17 26 . 18 27OLTPOLAP . 19 28OceanBase . 20 29 . 20 30 . 21 312020-2023 . 22 32. 22 33. 23 34 . 24 35 “”. 24 36. 25 37 . 25 38 . 26 39 . 27 40 . 28 41 . 29 42. 29 43 . 30 44 . 30 45. 31 46. 31 4 / 34 1. IT 2013 1998 2013-2019 IDC7 2020-2023ITITIDC 2018IT1116.8+10.1%419.9 +23.6%IT IT

6、 IOE 2020-2023160 4420142015 15 201975 IBM20192019 1246072020-2023 16044 2012 2016 2019 2020-20224.58/5.66/6.96 202045-50 xP/E100-111 202030 x P/E71171-18217.62-18.76 5 / 34 2. IT201950% IT 1984 111985 1994 1997 IT20009 2001 00861.HK2000 1 Wind 3 2013*STA IT2015 IT 6 / 34 2 Wind 2019 54.0829.4%50%20

7、19 39.0/27.4/29.2 80046 11151990 230300 32019 42019 Wind Wind ICT 7 / 34 100%96%7.111.5 5 Wind 6 7 Wind 2019 Wind 2014-2019/CAGR9.1%/6.1%2014-2019 66101CAGR9.1% 2018ATM2019 3.8 8 9 Wind Wind 8 / 34 2014-2019 2254201950% 2018-2019 10 Wind 2017 2014-2019 11 Wind 9 / 34 2014-2019100% 201497%201975% 12

8、Wind IT2019 102093908IT 13IT Wind 10 / 34 14IT Wind ROEROE2019ROE ROE7.4%ITROE15.6% IT 40% 15IT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ROE% 11.6% 11.3% 6.2% 6.4% 0.9% 7.4% 9.0% 11.0% 19.8% 17.3% 13.8% 15.6% 8.3% 6.2% 13.4% 9.3% 4.9% 10.1% 4.4% 5.5% 3.2% 3.9% 0.5% 3.8% 3.1% 5.0% 10.6% 11.7% 9.2% 10.3% 15.0% 8

9、.4% 15.9% 10.0% 5.3% 10.6% 1.05 0.97 0.95 0.81 0.85 0.95 1.03 0.93 0.80 0.66 0.73 0.73 0.46 0.53 0.60 0.67 0.66 0.65 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Wind 11 / 34 3. IT 2020-2023 160 3-4 3.1. IT 2018IT1100IDC2018 IT1116.810.1%2010-2018IT 7.8% 16IT IDC 2018IT419

10、.9IDC 2018419.923.6% IT IDC2019-202320.8% 2023IT1071.5 IT IT2018 IT43.3%IT 21.4%/IT30.9%2018 IT201752.1%48.8%50% 12 / 34 172018IT 18 2017IT IDC IDC 2019124607201819 186 1216301478722 25813470 68444128 2524 2013-2019 2013-2019 IDC7 192018 202018 IDC IDC 13 / 34 IT2020 120191024 3.5% 1% 2019 93.61+44%

11、20183.72% 201926972020 94.4 220184 3000 ITIT2020-2023 IT2020-2023IT2015-2019 IT IT 3.2. IT 3.2.1. ITIOE 1964IBMSystem/360 System/360OS/360 OS IBM360IBM 1965DECPDP-8 DEC PC19982002 1987IBMSAFEIT80 ITIBM SAFE1987-1988 SAFEIIIBMSAFEII IBMSAFEII SAFE 14 / 34 OracleOLTP OLTP Oracle 2015 Oracle56% 212015

12、IDC 3.2.2. ITIOE 2014 20149 2015 152019 75 20155 IBM OracleEMCIT IT + 15 / 34 22 3.3. 2016 20152016 SmrtGalaxy armX86 TiDBGaussDBOceanBase WebWebLogic WAS 2016SmrtGalaxy 16 / 34 23SmrtEnsemble 2020202043 T/CESA 1076-2020T/CESA 1075-2020 3.4. 1978 Oracle 2020 17 / 34 24 1978 1982 1985 1989 OracleOrac

13、le 1995 1997 OracleBDA 1999 2000 OracleMySQL 2004 B2BOracleIOE 2013 2015 OceanBase 2017 POLARDB 2019 Gauss DB 90 25 IOE Oracle Gauss DBOceanBase PingCAPTiDB 18 / 34 3.4.1. Gauss DBAIARMX86 2001 10 2011 201120188 OLAP OLTP2019515GaussDB 26 AI-NativeGaussDB AI-NativePB Petabyte250 OLAPTPC-DS2.68M 4.95

14、M85%OracleGaussDB X86ARMGPUNPUOracle X86 OLTPOn-Line Transaction ProcessingOLAPOn-Line Analytical ProcessingOLTP OLAP 19 / 34 27OLTPOLAP OLTP OLAP DB DB 100MB-GB100GB-TB GaussDBGaussDB GaussDB 100GaussDB 200GaussDB 300GaussDB100 OLTP DatabaseGaussDB200OLAP DatabaseOLTP GaussDB 300HTAP DatabaseOLTP+O

15、LAP Gauss OLTP2017 GaussDB20183Gauss OLTP App8500TPS3500 Gauss OLAP2015 Gauss OLAP Gauss HTAP 2018Gauss HTAP GaussDB+ARM 3.4.2. OceanBaseOracle OceanBase2019102 TPCTransaction Processing Performance CouncilTPC-C OceanBaseOracle 20 / 34 OceanBase 100% “” 4200/ 28OceanBase PCSSD “” paxos MySQL/ORACLEM

16、ySQL/ORACLE MySQL/ORACLEOceanBase 3.4.3. PingCAP TiDB TiDBPingCAPPingCAP 2015 TiDB 1000 TiDB PingCAP 29 PingCAP 21 / 34 3.5. IT Oracle TDSQL 30 450014.4 42002.9 3.51005.0 2309.6 11.7 43.7 2020324201912 22 / 34 312020-2023 6500 30 3500 15 12300 36 13430 40 39021 39 4057 160 2020324 201912 3.6. 20128

17、20 32 20 5G 23 / 34 SmrtGAS 33 4. 4.1. 2012 502012 20164 , 50 24 / 34 34 35 25 / 34 36 2019 2019 NO.1 2020 37 4.2. 2019 2019 26 / 34 38 OpenLab TaiShan GaussDBAI-Native / 2019725 2019 FinTech “” CPUTaiShanGaussDB IT “” Stack 2019320 27 / 34 201911 4.3. IT + 2019 201920252025 39 28 / 34 + 5. 5.1. 202

18、0-2022117.57/139.15/166.93 2020-202228%/31%/31% 19.2%/19.9%/20.4%201938.99 21.7525%17.2411%2020-2022 IT 2020-2022 40 3,504 3,899 5,010 6,573 8,643 49%11%28%31%31% 574 730 964 1,306 1,760 16.4%18.7%19.2%19.9%20.4% 1,335 2,175 2,769 3,659 4,855 63%27%32%33% 374 544 710 962 1,294 28.0%25.0%25.7%26.3%26

19、.6% 2,168 1,724 2,242 2,914 3,788 -20% 30%30%30% 200 186 253 344 466 9.2%10.8%11.3%11.8%12.3% 2020-20225%/7%/8%20.4%/21.8%/23.1% 201927.411.16 33%16.2410%2020-2022 29 / 34 2020-2022 20%33%-5%10% 41 2,949 2,740 2,882 3,073 3,321 33%-7%5%7%8% 545 524 589 669 768 18.5%19.1%20.4%21.8%23.1% 941 1,116 1,3

20、39 1,607 1,928 19%20%20%20% 360 366 439 527 632 38.3%32.8%32.8%32.8%32.8% 2,008 1,624 1,543 1,466 1,392 -19% -5%-5%-5% 185 158 150 142 135 9.2%9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7% 2020-20229%/9%/10% 17.7%/17.6%/17.6%201929.16 16.4419%12.7217% 2020-20225% 15% 42 2,098 2,916 3,184 3,485 3,822 -31%39%9%9%10% 415 517 563 6

21、14 672 19.8%17.7%17.7%17.6%17.6% 1,570 1,644 1,721 1,803 1,888 5%5%5%5% 343 306 320 336 351 21.8%18.6%18.6%18.6%18.6% 528 1,272 1,462 1,682 1,934 141% 15%15%15% 72 211 242 279 320 13.6%16.6%16.6%16.6%16.6% 30 / 34 43 9,077 10,146 11,757 13,915 16,693 11% 12% 16% 18% 20% 18.6% 18.6% 19.1% 19.7% 20.2%

22、 3,504 3,899 5,010 6,573 8,643 49% 11% 28% 31% 31% 16.4% 18.7% 19.2% 19.9% 20.4% 2,949 2,740 2,882 3,073 3,321 33% -7% 5% 7% 8% 18.5% 19.1% 20.4% 21.8% 23.1% 2,098 2,916 3,184 3,485 3,822 -31% 39% 9% 9% 10% 19.8% 17.7% 17.7% 17.6% 17.6% 527 591 680 785 907 -5% 12% 15% 15% 16% 29.2% 19.3% 18.9% 18.6%

23、 18.3% 5.2. 2020-20224.58 / 5.66 / 6.96 44 477 402 466 552 662 -5.3% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% 237 375 493 653 867 2.6% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 552 504 584 691 829 6.1%5.0%5.0%5.0% 5.0% 63 81 32 31 29 0.7%0.8%0.3%0.2% 0.2% 42 376 458 566 696 0.5%3.7%3.9%4.1% 4.2% -86%803%22%24% 23% 31 / 34 5.3. 2020171-18

24、217.62-18.76 2020-2022117.57/139.15/166.934.58/5.66/6.96 EPS 0.47/0.58/0.72 202045-50 xP/E100-111 IT 2020windP/E 48x202045-50 xP/E 202027.69 8%2.22100-111 45 () () 2020/6/9 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 119 2.2 3.0 53 40 158 3.7 4.8 43 33 48 36 Wind 202030 xP/E71 IT 2020Wind P/E 31x202030 xP/E 20202.3671

25、46 () () 2020/6/9 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 210 7.3 9.2 29 23 166 5.0 6.9 33 24 349 11.4 14.5 31 24 31 24 Wind 2020171-18217.62-18.76 6. 1 2 3 32 / 34 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,449 1,736 2,050 2,404 376 458 566 696 797 797 797 797 164 (7) (7) (7) 3,689 4,272 5,054 6,060 102 80 75 73 1,889 2,175 2,556 3,047 - - - - 45 45 45 45 81 32 31 29 7,777 8,920 10,380 12,208 (95) (20) (20) (20) - - - - (349) (178) (241) (313) 477 477 477 477 4 - - - 491 500 514 536 290 372 413 470 107 74 51 34 367 (