羅蘭貝格：下一代制造業準備就緒（中英）（2022）（52頁）.pdf

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1、思考：行動思考：行動羅蘭貝格下一代制造業準備就緒下一代制造業準備就緒Next Generation Manufacturinggets ready to rollNext Generation Manufacturinggets ready to roll經過漫長而緩慢的旅程，制造業將再次振奮人心After a long,slow ride,manufacturing is aboutto get exciting again經過漫長而緩慢的旅程，制造業將再次振奮人心After a long,slow ride,manufacturing is aboutto get exciting aga

2、in翻譯：報告廳翻譯組更多相關內容請參考：翻譯：報告廳翻譯組更多相關內容請參考：After a long,slow ride,manufacturing is about to get exciting again Next Generation Manufacturing gets ready to roll三大主題三大主題壓力之下為什么51%的受訪高管希望完全停止內部生產產品P.6進入新時代的一瞥進入新時代的一瞥六大趨勢已達到臨界點，為公司提供了獨特的機會。P.8恢復力量恢復力量制造業如何成為真正的價值創造者，而不是純粹的成本中心。制造業如何成為真正的價值創造者，而不是純粹的成本中心。P.

3、19THE BIGSix megatrends have reached a tipping point and offer a unique opportunity for companies.P.8A glimpse into a new eraWhy 51 percent of executives surveyed would like to stop manufacturing products in-house altogether.P.6How manufacturing can become a true value generator instead of a pure co

4、st center.P.19UNDER PRESSURERegain strength目錄下一代制造|思考：第 3 幕第 4 頁第 4 頁 執行摘要 第1第1 6 頁6 頁引言 第2第2 8 頁8 頁介紹六大趨勢 第3第3 14 頁14 頁介紹區域NGM基準 第4第4 16 頁16 頁制造業再造 為什么該趨勢應該被視為機會，而不是詛咒。第5第5 19 頁19 頁如何成為下一代制造商第 26 頁第 26 頁 總結過去和未來的功能封面插圖 Matthias Seifarth/Wildfox RunningContentsPAGE 4 Executive summary 1 PAGE 6 Intro

5、duction 2 PAGE 8 Introducing the six megatrends 3 PAGE 14 Introducing the Regional NGM Benchmark 4 PAGE 16 Manufacturing reinvented Why the trends should be seen as an opportunity,not a curse.5 PAGE 19 How to become a Next Generation Manufacturer PAGE 26 Conclusion The once and future functionCover

6、illustration Matthias Seifarth/Wildfox Running3Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act4 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|執行摘要幾十年來，制造企業一直承受著巨大的壓力，以降低成本，提高質量，并保護利潤率?？偟膩碚f，他們是成功的。通過采用精益思想和其他優化方法，通過將自動化和外包零件、組件，有時是整個產品集成到位于低成本市場的工廠，他們達到了。然而，這些手段已經達到了極限，并被證明是不夠的。今天，有許多趨勢已經達到了臨界點：可持續性、行業顛覆、區域化、民粹主義、個性化和數字化。鑒于這一新視角，制造業“競爭力”

7、的觀點從主要關注成本（勞動力、材料）轉變為更廣泛的觀點，其中包括CO2排放、綠色能源、供應鏈的復雜性、靈活性或依賴性等因素發揮更大的作用。從我們的立場來看，制造商的機會之窗已經打開！在這項研究中，我們展示了這些趨勢如何構成我們這個時代的前瞻性公司的一個重大機會?？吹竭@個機會并決心采取果斷行動的公司、首席運營官和制造負責人可以重新思考和重新配置他們的運營，并將他們的制造再次轉變為真正的價值創造者。我們的報告分為五個部分：首先首先，我們研究到這么多制造商對制造業的未來感到絕望，并思考為什么大公司和亞洲公司的悲觀情緒最為強烈，以及競爭力的概念總體上是如何變化的。其次其次，我們考慮了六大趨勢中的每一個

8、，以及它們對制造公司的意義。第三第三，我們介紹了區域NGM基準，該工具將向您展示世界上最重要的制造業市場六大趨勢中每一個趨勢的相關性。第四第四，我們看看為什么六大趨勢應該被視為制造商的機會。第五第五，我們建議您可以做些什么來開始您成為下一代制造商的旅程。Executive summaryFOR DECADES NOW,manufacturing companies have been under tremendous pressure to keep their costs down,quality up,and margins defended.By and large,they were

9、successful.By adopting lean thinking and other optimization methodologies,by integrating automation and outsourcing parts,components,and sometimes entire products to factories located in lower-cost markets,they delivered.However,these levers have reached their limits and are turning out not to be su

10、fficient any more.Today,there are a number of trends that have reached a tipping point:Sustainability,industry disruption,regionalization,populism,individualization,and digitalization.Given this new perspective,the view of manufacturing competitiveness changes from mainly a cost focus(labor,material

11、)to a much broader view where factors like CO2 emissions,green energy,complexity of the supply chain,flexibility,or dependency play a much bigger role.From where we are standing,a window of opportunity for manufacturers has opened!In this study,we show how each of these trends may constitute one of

12、the great chances of our time for forward-looking companies.Companies,COOs,and Heads of Manufacturing that see this opportunity and are determined to take decisive action can rethink&reconfigure their operations and turn their manufacturing once again into a true value generator.Our report is divide

13、d into five parts:First,we look at the desperation that so many manufacturers feel about the future of manufacturing and consider why pessimism is strongest among large companies,and Asian companies and how the notion of competitiveness in general is changing.Second,we consider each of the six trend

14、s and what they mean for manufacturing companies.Third,we introduce the Regional NGM Benchmark,a tool that will show you at a glance the relevance of each of the six trends in the worlds most important manufacturing markets.Fourth,we look at why the six megatrends should be seen as an opportunity fo

15、r manufacturers.Fifth,we suggest what you can do to begin your journey toward becoming a Next Generation Manufacturer.4 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動5|A從從“負債負債”到到“資產資產”六大趨勢讓公司重新思考和重新配置他們的制造戰略可持續性將繼續存在可持續性將繼續存在六大趨勢六大趨勢數字化取勝數字化取勝行業變革首當其沖行業變革首當其沖位置更重要位置更重要轉型轉型大規模個性化大規模個性化民粹主義崛起

16、民粹主義崛起顧客公司顧客公司嵌入式可持續性提高效率制造足跡重新配置伙伴關系制造戰略制造戰略8 組杠桿和 70 個單獨的措施8 組杠桿和 70 個單獨的措施新的生產技術供應商網絡新的商業模式數字技術資料來源：羅蘭貝格AFrom a liability to an assetSIX MEGATRENDS ALLOW COMPANIES TO RETHINK&RECONFIGURE THEIR MANUFACTURING STRATEGY Source:Roland BergerMANUFACTURING STRATEGY8 clusters of levers with 70 individual

17、 measuresBoosted efficiency Embedded sustainabilityDigital technologiesNew business modelsSupplier networkPartnershipsNew production technologiesManufacturing footprint reconfiguration Sustainability is here to stayDigitalization to winPopulism on the riseIndustry disruption at the forefrontTransfor

18、mation to mass individualizationLocation matters moreCUSTOMERSCOMPANYSIX MEGATRENDS 5Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act6 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|1 引言從19世紀中期到20世紀末，從19世紀中期到20世紀末，制造業是經濟繁榮的主要驅動力。即便是現在，傳統制造業仍是世界經濟的支柱，到2020年，傳統制造業約占全球GDP的16%，如果算上輔助服務業，這一比例還會更高.現代制造業遠非化石，它仍然是個人、公司和國家經濟機會的重要來源。即使在今天，僅在美國，制造商就

19、吸引了所有私營部門研發資金的58%。盡管取得了如此長的成功記錄，但在過去十年中，制造公司面臨的壓力一直在增加，并在許多方面產生影響。追求有助于推動全球供應鏈增長的低成本現在已經造成了巨大的復雜性：例如，空中客車公司與來自100多個國家的8,000家直接供應商和18,000家間接供應商合作。大眾汽車更加復雜，約有40,000家直接供應商。投資者要求他們的投資獲得更高的現金回報，這最終意味著在全球貿易重新政治化的同時更高的成本效率。消費者表示他們想要更多的生態產品，政府已經收緊了環境和安全法規。數字化還繼續以令人驚訝和顛覆性的方式分解價值。吸引員工也比以往更加困難。即使發達經濟體的制造業工作份額已

20、經下降，尋找人來承擔剩余工作的難度也越來越大。僅在美國，制造商去年10月就只能填補大約一半的熟練勞動力空缺963.6萬個職位中只有48.5萬個鑒于制造業在促進就業方面的重要性，這一比例應受到政策制定者的密切關注。制造業高管們的情緒很低落。羅蘭貝格公司最近為這項研究對約200名受訪者進行了調查，其中67%的受訪者表示，制造業普遍面臨“效率和成本降低方面的巨大壓力”。大約60%的人認為幾乎沒有機會減輕這些限制。調查還表明亞洲（不包括中國）的公司可能會感受到更大的壓力，這可能是因為激烈的區域競爭，以及他們生產的許多產品的商品化性質。在各種力量的沖擊下，許多公司更愿意成為輕資產機構，不那么受日常制造業

21、務運營問題的限制。在同一項調查中，51%的受訪高管表示，他們希望完全停止內部生產產品。他們寧愿是蘋果公司，純粹負責產品的設計、品牌和營銷，而其他人負責實際的組裝工作。這一略微的多數掩蓋了更廣泛的觀點差異，這取決于地區和市值。中國以外的亞洲公司(60%)已經受夠了，相比之下，中國公司的比例為50%，歐盟公司為53%，有趣的是，美國公司的比例為41%。最大的公司也最渴望放棄制造業，這或許反映了他們業務的全球化競爭性質，他們必須面對民粹主義環境、報復的政治家、全球供應鏈短缺，以及來自公眾和政府的巨大壓力(特別是在可持續發展方面)。一家公司的傳統會影響高管們的看法。工業公司的高管們對外包制造最不感興趣

22、(也許是因為他們作為產品制造商的光榮傳統)，其次是較小的公司。另一方面，健康和消費1IHS Markit2 全國制造商協會，關于制造業的事實，2021 年，https:/www.nam.org/facts-about-manufacturing/3 空中客車公司，可持續供應鏈，2021 年，https:/ Volkswagen AG，大眾汽車為其 40,000 家供應商提供生產保護措施說明，2020 年，https:/ 我們的數據世界，高收入國家制造業就業份額，2015 年，https:/ourworldindata.org/6 紐約時報，隨著經濟反彈，制造商面臨新的障礙，2021 年，htt

23、ps:/ 31-33,2021，https:/www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm#iag31-33emp1.f.pFROM THE MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY to the end of the twentieth century,manufacturing was a key driver of economic prosperity.Even now,traditional manufacturing remains the backbone of the world economy,accounting for an estimated 1

24、6 percent of global GDP in 2020,1 more when ancillary services are included.2 Far from a fossil,modern manufacturing continues to be an important source of economic opportunity for individuals,companies,and countries.Even today,manufacturers attract 58 percent of all private sector research and deve

25、lopment dollars in the US alone.Despite that long record of success,pressure on manufacturing companies has been building for the past decade,bearing down on many fronts.The pursuit of lower costs that helped drive the growth of global supply chains has now created enormous complexity:Airbus,for ins

26、tance,works with 8,000 direct and 18,000 indirect suppliers from over 100 countries.3 Volkswagen is even more complex,with around 40,000 direct suppliers.4Investors are demanding greater cash returns on their investments,which in the end means greater cost efficiency at the same time as global trade

27、 has been rrepoliticized.Consumers say they want more ecological products and governments have tightened environmental and safety regulations.Digitalization also continues to unbundle value in surprising and disruptive ways.Attracting employees is more difficult than it used to be,too.Even as the sh

28、are of manufacturing jobs in developed economies has fallen,5 finding people to take the remaining jobs is getting tougher.In the US alone,manufacturers were able to fill only about half of their available positions for skilled labor last October only 485,000 out of 963,0006 a ratio policymakers sho

29、uld watch closely,given the importance of manufacturing as a catalyst for employment.The mood in the manufacturing executive suite is somber.In a recent Roland Berger survey of around 200 respondents conducted for the purpose of this study,67 percent of the respondents to our survey said manufacturi

30、ng generally faced intense pressure in terms of efficiency and cost reduction.Roughly 60 percent see few opportunities to lessen those constraints.The survey also suggests that companies from Asia(excl.China)may feel the pressure even more intensely,possibly because of red-hot regional competition,a

31、nd the commoditized nature of many of the products that they produce.Battered by a variety of forces,many companies would prefer to become asset-light institutions,less constrained by operational issues in the day-to-day business of manufacturing.In that same survey,51 percent of executives surveyed

32、 said they would like to stop manufacturing products in-house altogether.They would rather be Apple,purely responsible for the design,branding,and marketing of products,while someone else does the actual physical assembly.That slight majority masks much wider variations of opinion,depending on regio

33、n and market cap.Asian companies outside of China have had enough(60 percent)compared to 50 percent of Chinese companies,53 percent of European Union companies,and interestingly,41 percent of US companies.BThe largest companies are also the most eager to drop manufacturing,a reflection,perhaps,of th

34、e competitive global nature of their business and that they have to face populist environments,vindictive politicians,global supply chain shortages,and intense pressure from the public and the government(especially with respect to sustainability).A companys heritage made a difference in executives o

35、utlook.Executives at industrial companies had the least interest in outsourcing manufacturing(owing,perhaps,to a proud tradition as a product-maker),followed by smaller companies.On the other hand,health and consumer 1 Introduction1 IHS Markit2 National Association of Manufacturers,Facts About Manuf

36、acturing,2021,https:/www.nam.org/facts-about-manufacturing/3 Airbus,Sustainable Supply Chain,2021,https:/ Volkswagen AG,Volkswagen supports its 40,000 suppliers with instructions for protective measures in production,2020,https:/ Our World in Data,Share of manufacturing employment in high income cou

37、ntries,2015,https:/ourworldindata.org/6 The New York Times,As Economy Rebounds,Manufacturers Face New Hurdles,2021,https:/ of Labor Statistics,Manufacturing:NAICS 31-33,2021,https:/www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm#iag31-33emp1.f.p6 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動7|60505341企業最愿

38、意把生產線交給別人，這或許反映出它們的制造業根基較淺，或者它們認識到，企業的價值更多地體現在品牌上。然而，盡管關閉工廠的愿望可以理解，但這是一個錯誤的愿望。以低成本和高質量生產大量復雜的產品并不容易，如果你選擇了你的利基市場并提供良好的服務，你的客戶會獎勵你:：以臺積電為例，它是一家純粹專注于代工制造的公司（半導體），利潤豐厚（2020年凈收入為39%）。7三星是一家在可持續發展、促進數字化和連通性、建立新的合作和伙伴關系方法以及重新配置其制造足跡方面取得長足進步的公司，在過去5年中能夠持續獲得約9-18%的凈利潤.受訪者對工廠主面臨的挑戰并不是錯誤的。正如我們將在本文中展示的那樣，制造的許多

39、方面都很艱難，而且越來越艱難。但我們還將證明，響應這些趨勢的緊迫性為制造商提供了一個難得的機會，將他們的資產和專業知識從不利因素轉變為競爭優勢。B追隨蘋果的腳步追隨蘋果的腳步全球都希望成為一個輕資產機構世界各地的許多公司寧愿完全停止內部制造.%世界各地的許多公司寧愿完全停止內部制造.%1 亞洲中國歐盟美國(不包括中國).尤其是最大的公司%.尤其是最大的公司%1 6154473310,000m收入歐元收入歐元收入歐元收入7 臺積電，2020 年年報，https:/ 三星電子，財務摘要，2021 年，https:/ were most open to leaving the assembly li

40、ne to someone else,perhaps reflecting of shallower manufacturing roots or the recognition that more of the companys value is in its brand.However,as understandable as this wish to shut down the factory might be,its a mistaken aspiration.Producing large numbers of certain amounts of complex goods at

41、low cost with a high degree of quality is not easy to do,and if you pick your niche and serve it well,your customers will reward you:Consider TSMC,a purely contract manufacturing focused company(semiconductors),which is highly profitable (39 percent net income in 2020).7 Samsung,a company that has m

42、ade great strides in sustainability,fostering digitalization and connectivity,establishing new collaborations and methods of partner-ship,and reconfiguring its manufacturing footprint,was able to rake in consistent profit net of around 9-18 percent in the last 5 years.8 Its not that the respondents

43、are wrong about the challenges that factory owners face.As we will show in this paper,many aspects of manufacturing are tough and getting tougher.But we will also demonstrate that the urgency to respond to these trends has given manufacturers a rare opportunity to transform their assets and expertis

44、e from a liability into a competitive advantage.BIn the footsteps of AppleTHE GLOBAL DESIRE TO BECOME AN ASSET-LIGHT INSTITUTIONSource:Roland Berger1 Total%of responses for Agree and Fully agreeASIA (excl.CN)CNEUUSMany companies around the world would rather stop doing manufacturing in-house complet

45、ely.%160505341.particularly the largest companies%1 334754617 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.,Annual Report,2020,https:/ Samsung Electronics,Financial Highlights,2021,https:/ METHODOLOGY We conducted C-level interviews and a survey with 200 respondents from dozens of companies around the wo

46、rld,most of them medium-sized to large enterprises with an international footprint.After conducting interviews with subject matter experts and calibrating their responses with our own experience,we identified six megatrends highly relevant to manufacturing.Survey respondents came from all major indu

47、strial clusters:North America,Asia,and Europe,and from a diverse range of industries:machinery,automotive,electronics,technology,food and beverage,life sciences,chemicals,materials,steel,and semiconductors.10,000 m EUR revenue 7Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act8 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|2 介紹六大趨勢當我們開始評估

48、今天的制造業狀況時，我們看到公司面臨的大多數挑戰背后有六大趨勢如何正確看待，也構成了機遇：趨勢一趨勢一可持續發展的驅動力可持續發展的驅動力隨著人為氣候變化的影響越來越大，政府、投資者、消費者以及現在的許多公司都開始強制實施大大小小的改變，其核心目標是：拯救我們的星球。來自監管機構的壓力和激勵措施不斷增加，這通常是由公民草根運動（例如“未來的星期五”）和越來越多的綠色選民行為（例如在德國，綠黨在秋季表現出色，在新三屆中贏得了領導地位）推動的路聯合政府。社交媒體引發的公眾抗議，例如對通過微信公開的中國環境丑聞的反應，也影響了輿論。這項活動也不僅僅是說說而已。通過歐洲綠色協議等倡議，歐盟明確表示，其

49、目標是到2050年使這個世界上最大的市場實現氣候中和。德國于2021年在運輸和建筑行業征收碳稅，價格在2025年之前每年都會增加，然后分別在2026年和2027年進入拍賣并最終進入自由市場。其他引入碳稅的國家包括中國，2021年新引入的排放交易體系涵蓋電力行業；加拿大，2019年開始征收聯邦燃料費；阿根廷，2018年對幾乎所有液體燃料和煤炭征稅；和日本，自2012年以來幾乎對所有化石燃料征稅。在機構投資者中，對投資的社會和環境影響的擔憂在2016年至2019年期間幾乎翻了一番，將環境和社會問題視為“可能以犧牲業績為代價的首要問題”的投資者比例從 17%上升至36%。投資于ESG任務的管理資產(

50、AUM)正以驚人的速度增長。按照目前的增長率，到2030年，符合ESG的資產將覆蓋所有資產的95%以上。確保這些名稱保留其意義的機制也正在到位，因為越來越多的研究公司提供基于ESG的透明度評級，傳統的信用評級機構開始對公司的ESG質量進行評級。正如貝萊德首席執行官拉里芬克在2021年所說，投資者看待以可持續發展為重點的公司的方式發生了“結構性轉變”?！霸谖覀兛蛻舻膬炏仁马椓斜碇?，沒有任何問題比氣候風險更高，”芬克在給貝萊德股東的信中寫道?！八麄兠刻於紗栁覀??！蓖瑫r，消費者的看法也發生了變化。羅蘭貝格最近的一項研究得出結論，77%的消費者愿意支付更高的價格為提供環保產品的品牌。面對消費者和投資者

51、都在增長在重視ESG的同時，許多制造公司都在努力實施自己的舉措，重點是減少運營中的二氧化碳排放。9 歐盟委員會，2021 年歐洲綠色協議，https:/ec.europa.eu/info/戰略/優先事項-2019-2024/歐洲-綠色-deal_en10 世界銀行，碳定價儀表板，2021 年，https:/carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data11 全球基礎設施中心，2019 年全球基礎設施投資者調查，https:/cdn.gihub.org/umbraco/media/2564/global-infrastructure-investor-

52、調查報告 2019.pdf12 德意志銀行，投資者對銀行的可持續性有何期望？，2021，https:/ MSCI，ESG 評級，2021 年，https:/ 全球最大的基金經理 CNBC 表示，可持續投資將繼續激增，推動更多披露，2021年，https:/ Yvonne Ruf，David Frans，Klimaschutz Ein neues Paradigma derWettbewerbsfhigkeit，2021，https:/ Introducingthe six megatrendsbetween 2016 and 2019,11 as the share of investors

53、who see environmental and social concerns as a first order question,possibly at the expense of performance rose from 17 percent to 36 percent.Assets under management(AUM)invested in ESG mandates are increasing at an enormous pace.At their present rate of growth,ESG-compliant assets will cover more t

54、han 95 percent of all assets by 2030.12 The machinery to make sure those designations retain their meaning is also being put in place,as more and more research firms offer ESG-based transparency ratings,and the traditional credit rating agencies branch out to rate companies for ESG quality.13 As Bla

55、ckRock CEO Larry Fink put it in 2021,there has been a tectonic shift in the way investors view sustainability-focused companies.No issue ranks higher than climate risk on our clients list of priorities,Fink wrote in his letter to BlackRock shareholders.They ask us about it every day.14At the same ti

56、me,there has also been a change in consumers views.A recent Roland Berger study concluded that 77 percent of consumers are willing to pay a higher price for brands that offer environmentally friendly products.15Faced with consumers and investors both growing more serious about ESG,many manufacturing

57、 companies are working harder on their own initiatives,with an emphasis on CO2 reduction in their operations.AS WE STARTED ASSESSING the state of manufacturing today,we saw that six trends were behind most of the challenges companies faced and viewed correctly,also constituted the opportunities:Tren

58、d 1THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITYAs the impact of human-caused climate change mounts,governments,investors,consumers,and now many companies have begun to force large and small changes that have at their heart a single goal:to save our planet.Pressure and incentives from regulators continue to increase

59、,often driven by citizen grassroots movements(such as Fridays for Future)and increasingly green voter behavior(e.g.in Germany,the Greens did well enough in the fall to have earned a leadership position in the new three-way coalition government).Public outcry driven by social media,such as the reacti

60、on to Chinese environmental scandals publicized through WeChat,have also shaped opinion.Nor is this activity all just talk.Through initiatives such as the European Green Deal,the European Union has made it clear that it aims for the worlds largest market to be climate neutral by 2050.9 Germany intro

61、duced a carbon tax in the transport and building sector in 2021,with prices set to increase every year until 2025,before going into an auction and finally a free market in 2026 and 2027,respectively.Other countries that have brought in carbon taxes include China,with a newly introduced emissions tra

62、ding system in 2021 covering the power sector;Canada,with a federal fuel charge introduced in 2019;Argentina,with a tax on almost all liquid fuels and coal implemented in 2018;and Japan,which has taxed almost all fossil fuels since 2012.10Among institutional investors,concern about the social and en

63、vironmental impact of investments nearly doubled 9 European Commission,A European Green Deal,2021,https:/ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en10 The World Bank,Carbon Pricing Dashboard,2021,https:/carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data11 Global Infrastructure

64、Hub,Global Infrastructure Investor Survey,2019,https:/cdn.gihub.org/umbraco/media/2564/global-infrastructure-investor-survey-report-2019.pdf12 Deutsche Bank,What do investors expect from the bank with regard to sustainability?,2021,https:/ MSCI,ESG Ratings,2021,https:/ 14 CNBC,Worlds largest money m

65、anager says sustainable investing surge to continue,pushes for more disclosure,2021,https:/ Yvonne Ruf,David Frans,Klimaschutz Ein neues Paradigma der Wettbewerbs-fhigkeit,2021,https:/ Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動9|大眾與供應商密切合作，以實現脫碳目標并監督他們對人權規則的遵守情況。三星開發了一種生態設計流程，以提高資源和能源效率并

66、防止制造過程中的環境危害。工業回收的努力也正在獲得動力。幾乎所有的飲料制造商和塑料供應商都加入了終結塑料廢物聯盟，而將先進的塑料回收技術推向市場的DePoly和Ioniqa等初創公司正在獲得大量資金，以減少塑料行業產生的垃圾。一些公司，如博世，已經設法實現碳中和，但其他公司（尤其是鋼鐵、化工、混凝土和能源行業）必須創造性地思考才能實現目標。毫無疑問，遲早，每個人都將被迫發揮創造力，以找到最終達到他們想要的目標的方法。大多數分析師認為，除了與碳排放、社會不平等或供應商丑聞相關的更高成本外，不符合ESG要求的公司必須支付的利率將侵蝕他們的利潤（如果他們設法獲得投資者的話）。精心設計的ESG響應中存

67、在重大機遇也沒有什么壞處。正如我們稍后在報告中指出的那樣，ESG明星更有可能成為華爾街的寵兒。例如，特斯拉以“加速世界向可再生能源轉型”為使命，在成立不到20年的時間里，就市值超過了所有其他汽車公司。有這么多因素推動和拉動制造商轉向可持續解決方案，難怪在擁有250多名成員的制造外包平臺Fictiv發布的2021年制造狀況報告中，68%的C級或VP級高管告訴民意調查者，可持續性問題達到了受訪者企業歷史上的最高水平，突顯了可持續發展對高層管理人員日益重要的重要性。但企業還有很長的路要走：36%的受訪者表示他們有良好的意愿但沒有切實可行的計劃，58%的受訪者表示他們對供應商的可持續發展標準的控制有限

68、，凸顯了ESG透明度在整個價值鏈中的重要性。43%的人表16 終結塑料垃圾聯盟，2021 年，https:/endplasticwaste.org/en/about17 家回收初創公司，前 92 名塑料、PET 回收初創公司，2021 年，https:/www.回收啟動.org/top/plastic-waste/18 視覺資本家，按市值計算的全球頂級汽車制造商，2021 年，https:/ Fictiv，2021 年制造業狀況報告，https:/ 年制造狀況報告示，他們在小型項目方面做得很好，但難以擴展可持續發展計劃。毋庸置疑，許多公司在可持續性方面都有很長的待辦事項清單，包括有關其制造足跡

69、的決策（例如如何獲得更清潔的能源和減少浪費，確保其供應商不違反環境規則或使用童工）。由于每個生產環境固有的復雜性和高資本支出，沒有什么比切換（一組）工廠更復雜的了。目前，實現完全碳中和的手段主要與碳抵消（在許多情況下意味著植樹）、購買可再生電力、轉向替代生產工藝或實施節電有關。對于許多行業（例如鋼鐵/混凝土生產）來說，這還不夠。在這些領域，實現下一代制造需要更多的創新。趨勢二趨勢二生產和需求的區域化生產和需求的區域化重大破壞，例如全球大流行（Covid-19）、更高的關稅（特朗普）、某些產品的集中（亞洲的半導體供應商，其危機具有巨大的連鎖反應，例如日本的瑞薩Naka 火災）、犯罪（索馬里海盜）

70、)、恐怖主義和運輸困難（2021年3月蘇伊士運河封鎖六天）、環境災難、童工丑聞（尤其是在紡織行業）以及需要較長的生產周期，這讓許多公司懷疑是否廉價勞動力和生產設施的價格現在太高了。權衡政治壓力和便利性，許多制造商現在正在重新思考擴展供應鏈的智慧。在不考慮地理或地緣政治的情況下優化成本組件在紙面上效果很好，但在現實生活的不可預測性的影響下并不總是那么好?，F在，一些人開始看到縮小制造足跡和增強區域能力的環境、經濟和運營優勢。醫療保健制造就是一個重要的例子。在努力提高疫苗、個人防護裝備和其他安全設備的國內生產之后，關鍵材料和零件的供應現在是許多公司和政府最關心的問題。難怪山德VW works clo

71、sely with its suppliers to achieve decarbonization goals and to monitor their compliance with human rights rules.Samsung has developed an eco-design process to improve resource and energy efficiency and prevent environmental hazards during manufacturing.Industrial recycling efforts are gaining momen

72、tum as well.Almost all beverage manufacturers and plastic providers have joined the Alliance to End Plastic Waste,16 and startups such as DePoly and Ioniqa,which are bringing advanced plastic recycling technologies to the market,are receiving significant funding to reduce the waste produced by the p

73、lastics industry.17Some companies,such as Bosch,have already managed to become carbon neutral but others(especially in the steel steel,chemical,concrete,and energy industries)will have to think creatively to reach their goals.And there is no question that,sooner or later,everyone will be forced to g

74、et creative to find ways to end up where they want to be.Most analysts believe that in addition to higher costs related to carbon emissions,social inequality,or supplier scandals,the interest rates non-ESG compliant firms will have to pay will eat into their profits(if they manage to secure investor

75、s at all).It also doesnt hurt that there is a significant opportunity in a well-designed ESG response.As we note later in the report,ESG stars are likelier to be Wall Street darlings.Tesla,for instance,starting with its mission of accelerating the worlds transition to renewable energy,was able to ov

76、ertake all other automotive companies by market cap less than 20 years after its founding.18With so many factors pushing and pulling manufacturers toward sustainable solutions,its no wonder that in the 2021 State of Manufacturing Report by Fictiv,a manufacturing outsourcing platform with over 250 me

77、mbers,68 percent of C-or VP-level executives told pollsters that sustainability concerns had reached their highest level in the respondents corporate history,underlining sustainabilitys growing importance to top management.19 But companies have a long way to go:36 percent of respondents stated that

78、they have good intentions but no practical plan and 58 percent said that they have limited control over their suppliers sustainability standards,highlighting the importance of ESG transparency along the entire value chain.Forty-three percent said that they do a good job with small projects but have

79、difficulty scaling a sustainability initiative.It goes without saying that many companies have a long to-do list when it comes to sustainability,including decisions about their manufacturing footprint(such as how to obtain cleaner energy and reduce waste,making sure their suppliers dont violate envi

80、ronmental rules or use child labor).Due to the inherently complex nature and high capital expenditures necessary in every production environment,there is nothing more complex than to switching(a set of)factories around.Currently,the levers to achieve full carbon neutrality relate mainly to carbon of

81、fset(which in many cases means planting trees),purchasing renewable electricity,switching to alternative production processes,or implementing power savings.For many industries(e.g.steel/concrete production)that is not enough.In these sectors,more innovation will be necessary to achieve Next Generati

82、on Manufacturing.Trend 2THE REGIONALIZATION OF PRODUCTION AND DEMANDMajor disruptions such as a global pandemic(Covid-19),higher tariffs(Trump),the concentration of certain products(semiconductor suppliers in Asia whose crises have a massive ripple effect,e.g.the Renesas Naka fire in Japan),crime(So

83、mali pirates),terrorism and transportation difficulties(the six-day Suez Canal blockage in March 2021),environmental disasters,child labor scandals(especially in the textile industry),and the need for long lead times in production are leading many companies to wonder whether the price of cheaper lab

84、or and production facilities is now too high.Weighing up the political pressure and the convenience,many manufacturers are now rethinking the wisdom of their extended supply chains.Optimizing components for cost without considering geography or geopolitics worked well on paper but not always so well

85、 when subject to the unpredictabilities of real life.Now,some are starting to see environmental,economic,and operational advantages in shrinking their manufacturing footprint and reinforcing their regional capabilities.Healthcare manufacturing is an important case in point.Following the efforts to r

86、amp up domestic production of vaccines,PPE,and other safety equipment,the availability of critical materials and parts is now a top-of-mind concern for many companies and governments.No wonder Sandoz 16 Alliance To End Plastic Waste,2021,https:/endplasticwaste.org/en/about17 Recycling Startups,Top 9

87、2 Plastic,PET Recycling startups,2021,https:/www.recyclingstartups.org/top/plastic-waste/18 Visual Capitalist,The Worlds Top Car Manufacturers by Market Capitalization,2021,https:/ Fictiv,State of Manufacturing Report,2021,https:/ Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act10 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|士和奧地利政府最近宣布了一項聯合

88、計劃，以提高歐洲抗生素生產的長期競爭力，并且高達92%的醫療器械制造商計劃將其生產轉移到岸上或近岸。醫療保健以外的許多公司也在考慮將生產轉移到離家更近的地方或重要的終端市場。在Covid-19之后進行的一項調查中，44%的美國制造業受訪者表示他們將轉向更區域化的供應鏈。Fictiv還發現，88%的機器人制造商、79%的汽車制造商和63%的電子制造商打算轉向在岸或近岸制造。全面思考和優化眾多工廠的足跡是這里的關鍵。很多時候，靈活性、安全性、資源可用性和文化相似性的長期利益大大超過了成本節約的直接利益。將工廠轉移到另一個地點并培訓相關員工的成本非常高，因此有遠見的方法是長期保持競爭優勢的關鍵。趨勢

89、三趨勢三民粹主義的魅力民粹主義的魅力政府面臨越來越大的壓力來確保工作并為其公民提供高薪職業。許多人愿意為關鍵的、社會薄弱地區的工廠提供巨額補貼，或為愿意在特定地區開店的公司提供基礎設施。2016年，美國選民將經濟和就業列為美國面臨的最重要問題。根據蓋洛普的數據，2020年，89%的人仍將經濟列為極其重要或非常重要。與1930年代一樣，一群獨特的政治家利用日益增長的經濟和社會不滿以及快速的技術變革（尤其是媒體的變革）來追求各種反動的、通常是仇外心理的政策。對于公司來說，這可能會帶來很大的問題。盡管民粹主義政客引發的擔憂在很大程度上是虛構的，但他們實施的政策變化可能會對企業產生切實的影響。無論是關

90、稅，不公平的法律待遇，還是國有化，這些日子里，主要企業比多年來更擔心極其重要或非常重要的事情。超民族主義政策遠未消退，一些國家為公司將生產遷回國內提供補貼，例如所得稅豁免和資本利得稅豁免，和其他國家在Covid大流行期間禁止出口藥品，或控制世界上大部分的半導體供應。公司在最近的貿易戰和民粹主義的商品出口中斷中遭受了很多損失。社交媒體也仍然是一張通配符，它以一種人們仍然知之甚少的方式塑造觀點，但會對公司的福祉產生強大的影響。預測政治事件的進程是困難的，但難以否認波動加劇的總趨勢。所有公司都明智地做好準備，尤其是制造商。在實體關稅和簽證限制加強的情況下，專業服務人員可以用Zoom電話代替親自拜訪，

91、但實體生產網絡不能只上線。例如，半導體生產設備制造商ASML在特朗普政府推動其取消向中國出口其光刻機（目前幾乎擁有全球壟斷地位）時，發現其未來動搖了。趨勢四趨勢四行業顛覆行業顛覆技術進步正在加速高質量商品的生產，但以攪動行業的方式。電動汽車可能看起來像引擎蓋下的傳統汽車，但據英國金融時報報道，傳統的內燃機有2000個運動部件，而現代電動汽車的發動機只有20個，這大大降低了復雜性，并對全球汽車生態系統產生了深遠的影響。20 ChemistryViews，加強歐洲抗生素制造的未來，2020，https:/www.chemistryviews.org/details/news/11262095/加強

92、_Future_of_Antibiotics_Manufacturing_in_Europe.html21 Fictiv，2021 年制造業狀況報告，https:/ 年制造狀況報告22 蓋洛普，最重要的問題，2021，https:/ 梅根布雷南（Megan Brenan），2020 年經濟在選民的關鍵選舉問題清單中名列前茅，https:/ EuroStart Enterprises，商業脫歐：如何將您的企業遷至法國，2021年，https:/ 業-brexit-relocate-enterprise-france25 金融時報，您的電動汽車有多環保？，2021 年，https:/ polici

93、es are far from on the wane,with some countries offering subsidies for companies to move production home,such as income tax exemptions and capital gains tax exemptions,24 and other countries banning the exportation of medicines during the Covid pandemic,or controlling the majority of the worlds semi

94、conductor supply.Companies have suffered a lot from recent trade wars and populist export stoppages of goods.Social media too continues to be a wild card,shaping opinions in ways that are still only dimly understood but that can have powerful effects on companies well-being.Foreseeing the course of

95、political events is difficult,but the general trend toward more volatility is hard to deny.All companies are wise to prepare,but particularly manu-facturers.In times of physical tariffs and heightened visa restrictions,professional service workers can substitute Zoom calls for in-person visits,but a

96、 physical production network cant just go online.The semiconductor production equipment manufacturer ASML,for example,found its future shaken when the Trump administration pushed it to cancel the export of its photolithography machines(in which it currently holds almost a worldwide monopoly)to China

97、.Trend 4INDUSTRY DISRUPTIONAdvances in technology are speeding up the production of high-quality goods but in ways that are roiling industry.An electric car might look like a traditional vehicle with an engine under the hood,but according to the Financial Times,the traditional internal combustion en

98、gine has 2,000 moving parts,while a modern electric cars engine has only 20,a drastic reduction in complexity with far-reaching consequences for the global automotive ecosystem.25 and the Austrian government recently announced joint plans to drive the long-term competitiveness of European antibiotic

99、s production20,and that a whopping 92 percent of medical device manufacturers plan to bring their manufacturing back on-shore or near-shore.Many companies outside of healthcare are also considering moving production closer to home or a significant end market.In a survey conducted in the wake of Covi

100、d-19,44 percent of all manufacturing respondents in the US stated that they will be shifting to a more regional supply chain.Fictiv also found that 88 percent of robotics manufacturers,79 percent of automotive manufacturers,and 63 percent of electronics manufacturers intend to move to on-shore or ne

101、ar-shore manufacturing.21 Thinking holistically and optimizing the footprint of a multitude of factories is key here.Many times,the immediate benefits of cost savings are significantly outweighed by the long-term benefit of flexibility,safety,resource availability,and cultural similarity.It is very

102、costly to move a plant to another location and to train the related workforce,so a visionary approach is key to keep a competitive advantage in the long term.Trend 3THE ALLURE OF POPULISMGovernments are under more and more pressure to secure jobs and provide well-paying careers for their citizens.Ma

103、ny are willing to heavily subsidize plants in critical,socially weak locations or provide infrastructure to companies willing to set up shop in a particular region.In 2016,US voters named the economy and jobs as the most important problems facing America.22 In 2020,according to Gallup,89 percent sti

104、ll ranked the economy as either extremely important or very important.23 As in the 1930s,a distinctive group of politicians have capitalized on rising economic and social discontent and rapid technological change(particularly changes in media)to pursue a variety of reactionary and often xenophobic p

105、olicies.CFor companies,this can be very problematic.While the fears populist politicians stoke are often largely imaginary,the policy changes they put in place can have real consequences for business.Whether its a tariff,unfair legal treatment,or nationalization,major businesses have more to fear th

106、ese days than they have had for years.20 ChemistryViews,Strengthening Future of Antibiotics Manufacturing in Europe,2020,https:/www.chemistryviews.org/details/news/11262095/Strengthening_Future_of_Antibiotics_Manufacturing_in_Europe.html21 Fictiv,State of Manufacturing Report,2021,https:/ Gallup,Mos

107、t Important Problem,2021,https:/ Megan Brenan,Economy Tops Voters List of Key Election Issues,2020,https:/ EuroStart Enterprises,Business Brexit:How To Relocate Your Enterprise to France,2021,https:/ Financial Times,How green is your electric vehicle?,2021,https:/ Think:Act|Next Generation Manufactu

108、ring下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動11|C漲潮漲潮民粹主義的受歡迎程度不斷增長1980-2020年民粹主義總票數1980-2020年民粹主義總票數24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%19801990200020102020右翼選票左翼選票資料來源：TIMBRO，威權民粹主義指數，2021，https:/ 數據來自 1980 年以來自由選舉的歐洲國家（不包括半威權國家）的全國選舉；根據不同的公共資源和主要研究將政黨分為左翼或右翼民粹主義者。27https:/ is also enabling customization,over-the-air updates

109、(e.g.Tesla)and more options that can be built in at the level of scripts instead of hardware.Companies can also future-proof products by pre-producing hardware even before the software needed to run it is ready,making a future upgrade possible when the programming is complete.For instance,all Tesla

110、cars already have all the hardware needed for full self-driving sensors,cameras,processors,and radar and just await the software to run them.27 At the same time,advances in technology continue to reduce the need for many products a single smartphone,for instance,can now substitute what would have be

111、en whole rooms of electronic goods,from cameras to satellite navigation systems,to stereos and television sets.At the same time,the rise of the sharing economy decreases urbanites need to buy vehicles,as a plethora of startups give them easy access to a wide range of alternative forms of transportat

112、ion,including scooters,mopeds,and electric bicycles.These trends are followed by increasing demand volatility,which comes from a different adoption rate of things like electric products and from market disruptions.As a consequence,it becomes more and more difficult for traditional manufacturers to p

113、redict demand and schedule their processes accordingly.Needless to say,the software embedded in all these products constitutes an increasingly important portion of product value.But many manufacturers continue to struggle with the implications of this revolution,particularly companies rooted in a tr

114、adition of mechanical engineering.26 Data aggregated from national elections in European countries with free elections(semi-authoritarian countries excluded)since 1980;categorization of parties into left-or right-wing populists depending on different public sources and primary research.27 https:/ Po

115、pulism Index,2021,https:/ rising tideTHE POPULARITY OF POPULISM KEEPS GROWING26 1980199020002010202022%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%24%Aggregated populist votes,1980-2020Right-wing votesLeft-wing votes11Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act12 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|預計軟件熱潮將使產品更加高效和耐用，進一步減少對新物理產品的需求。例如，對于汽車

116、而言，共享所有權的趨勢預計將導致整體訂單量小得多，并且對單個車輛級別的定制需求減少。與此同時，由于客戶對共享產品的關注度降低，對更強大產品的需求可能會增加。對于汽車原始設備制造商而言，這意味著來自汽車實際生產的收入將越來越少，而更多來自其運營。對于制造部門來說，這意味著與銷售和外部利益相關者建立更緊密的聯系。與此同時，公司被迫將新的生產技術和技能以及改變的足跡整合到他們的制造業務中（例如共享經濟汽車的小型區域維修和大修中心）。不應低估這些挑戰，因為許多制造商目前都在努力適應電動產品的新世界。通常需要與電池供應商進行更好的合作，以及獲得關鍵原材料（例如鈷）。更不用說處理更淺的制造深度的系統了。因

117、此，不言而喻，合資企業將成為許多領域的新常態。一些制造商已經在為這個新世界進行自我改造，例如通過構建更堅固的產品來承受共享經濟中的艱苦使用，或者通過實施顛覆性的新商業模式。例如，荷蘭增材制造公司Hubs運營著一個3D打印機網絡，其他公司可以將其用于制造，并以MaaS（制造即服務）模式進行營銷。趨勢五趨勢五大規模定制和規模的終結大規模定制和規模的終結傳統上，選擇是一種奢侈品。處于市場頂端的消費者可以擁有他們想要的定制產品，并具有他們想要的飾面和功能。但這種個人關注不再局限于薩維爾街?，F在，技術使越來越多的消費者能夠準確地得到他們想要的東西。這給制造商帶來了各種新的挑戰。在傳統制造業中，規模經濟推

118、動了大多數決策。銷量越多，價格越便宜;價格越便宜，對消費者的價值就越高。然而，今天，發生變化。多種技術的融合使得在銷售點即時引入選項變得越來越容易且具有成本效益 技術能力、顏色和交付方式都可以在最后一秒決定。這給一些玩家帶來了重大挑戰。沒有規模，制造商如何在成長過程中獲得動力？如果3D打印等新技術讓幾乎所有東西都更容易制造，它們能否通過設計或功能實現差異化？許多大公司已經在利用這種能力為客戶創造新的價值：運動服：運動服：耐克和阿迪達斯提供可定制的運動鞋和服裝。醫療設備：醫療設備：3D打印為制造商提供了更多定制植入物和關節的能力。制藥：制藥：現在可以在生產層面（個性化藥物、干細胞和基因療法）根據

119、患者需求調整劑量。材料：材料：現在，可以根據客戶的確切規格制造鋼材。他們并不孤單。位于維也納的cyLEDGE Media的配置器數據庫列出了僅美國的438個在線配置器網站和德國的575個在線配置器。配置商提供的個性化產品和配件涵蓋種類繁多的商品，從美容產品、電子產品、工業產品和車輛到寵物用品和打印平臺。對于原始設備制造商和制造商而言，這將意味著他們的經營方式將發生一些深刻的變化。原始設備制造商將不得不與他們的客戶建立比以前更緊密的關系，并做出更好的預測。對于制造部門而言，復雜性的增加意味著生產失敗的可能性增加、記賬成本增加以及規模經濟的降低。他們將需要以最具成本效益的方式配置選項理想情況下使用

120、軟件，保留硬件標準，同時完全定制客戶體驗的非物理方面。趨勢六趨勢六新的數字范式新的數字范式數字化集成計算機網絡和傳感器以前所未有的效率為客戶創造更多價值的簡寫是我們的第六個也是最price;the cheaper the price,the better the value for the consumer.Today,however,thats changing.The convergence of several technologies is making it increasingly easy and cost effective to introduce options on th

121、e fly at point of sale technological capabilities,colors,and delivery method can all be decided at the last second.This is creating major challenges for some players.Without scale,how will manufacturers gain momentum as they grow?And if new technologies such as 3D printing make almost everything eas

122、ier to manufacturer,will they be able to differentiate by design or function?Already,many major companies are using this capacity to create new kinds of value for the customer:Athletic wear:Nike and Adidas are offering customizable sneakers and apparel.Medical devices:3D printing gives manufacturers

123、 more capacity to customize implants and joints.Pharmaceuticals:Doses can now be adjusted to patient needs right at the production level(personalized medicine,stem cell and gene therapies).Materials:Now,steels can be made to fit the customers exact specifications.And they arent alone.The Configurato

124、r Database of cyLEDGE Media in Vienna lists 438 online configurator websites in the US alone,and 575 online configurators in Germany.Configurators offerings of individualizations and accessories span a huge variety of goods,from beauty products,electronics,industrial goods,and vehicles to pet suppli

125、es and printing platforms.For OEMs and manufacturers,this will mean some profound changes to their ways of doing business.OEMs will have to build a much closer relationship with their customers than before and forecast better.For the manufacturing department,increasing complexity will mean more poss

126、ibilities for production failures,additional bookkeeping costs,and lower economies of scale.They will need to configure options in the most cost-effective way possible ideally with software,leaving the hardware standard while completely tailoring the non-physical aspects of the customer experience.T

127、rend 6THE NEW DIGITAL PARADIGMDigitalization shorthand for the power of integrated computer networks and sensors to produce more value to the The software boom is expected to make products much more efficient and durable,further reducing the need for new physical products.For automobiles,for example

128、,the trend toward shared ownership is expected to lead to much smaller overall order quantities and less need for customization at the level of the individual vehicle.At the same time,the demand for more robust products is likely to increase,as customers pay less attention to shared products.For aut

129、omotive OEMs,this means that less and less revenue will stem from the actual production of the car and more from its operation.For the manufacturing unit,it means closer connections with sales and external stakeholders.At the same time,companies are forced to integrate new production technologies an

130、d skills and a changed footprint into their manufacturing operations(e.g.small regional repair and overhaul centers for shared economy vehicles).One should not underestimate these challenges,as many manufacturers are currently struggling with adapting to the new world of electrically driven products

131、.Oftentimes a much better cooperation with battery cell suppliers is needed,as well as access to critical raw materials(e.g.cobalt).Not to mention a system that copes with the far shallower manufacturing depth.It therefore goes without saying that joint ventures will become the new norm in many area

132、s.Some manufacturers are already reinventing themselves for this new world,such as by building more rugged products that can withstand hard use in the shared economy,or by implementing disruptive new business models.For example,Hubs,a Dutch additive manufacturing company,runs a network of 3D printer

133、s that other firms can use for manufacturing,which it markets under a MaaS(Manu-facturing as a Service)model.Trend 5MASS CUSTOMIZATION AND THE END OF SCALETraditionally,choice was a luxury product.Consumers at the top of the market could have what they wanted made to order with the finish and featur

134、es that they desired.But such personal attention is no longer restricted to Savile Row.Now,technology is making it possible for more and more consumers to get exactly what they want.This is creating a variety of new challenges for manu-facturers.In traditional manufacturing,scale economics drove mos

135、t decisions.The more units sold,the cheaper the 12 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動13|后一個趨勢，它是一項正在改變幾乎所有人類組織運作方式的進步。從政府到銀行，從娛樂到教育，從醫療到咨詢，數字化正在推動各種革命。制造商也不例外。在數字化的早期階段，制造企業最明顯的變化是ERP系統和面向消費者的網絡銷售。然而，現在工廠可以徹底數字化，許多公司都看到了令人鼓舞的結果。人們討論多年的技術（物聯網、工業4.0、人工智能和大數據）終于成熟，并準備好加速制造。在工廠內，物聯網和

136、工業4.0設備的興起，例如機器人、自動導引車、傳感器、工人增強現實技術和增材制造，正在導致更智能、更緊密的供應鏈以及供應商和客戶之間的透明度更高，減少庫存的需要。與此同時，自主機器人和智能地板輸送機不斷提高工廠空間的靈活性和效率。制造業中的人工智能可以接管越來越多的復雜任務，生產更復雜的產品，并對這些產品進行質量控制。此外，預測性維護可以使用大數據和人工智能來預測制造環境中的故障，增加正常運行時間并減少生產成本。然而，數字化也帶來了新的威脅，首先是網絡安全。制造商需要適應來自其管轄范圍以外國家的黑客攻擊，在其系統中創建備份和冗余，并投資于新的數字能力和人力資源，以免變得脆弱。過去，工廠發生火災

137、會導致該工廠停止生產。如今，中央IT系統中的系統關閉能夠關閉所有工廠的全部生產。28 香港理工大學，人工智能驅動的 WiseEye 實現織物故障檢測自動化，2019 年，https:/www.polyu.edu.hk/cpa/milestones/en/201903/technology_innovation/技術/ai_powered_wiseeye_automates_fabric_fault_detectio/索引.html29 DLabs.ai，預測性維護：這就是人工智能如何改變工業 4.0，2020，https:/dlabs.ai/blog/predictive-maintenanc

138、e-this-is-how-ai-can-transform-industry-4-030 制造商，制造商增加對數字技術的投資以應對大流行，2020 年，https:/ of Erlangen)合作，開發整個供應鏈上的連續100%可追溯性。乍一看，這六大趨勢似乎印證了許多制造業高管的感覺，即從事這不是一個好生意。沒有一個制造業部門不面臨相當大的挑戰和壓力。但由于這六大趨勢已經達到了一個臨界點，制造公司有一個難得的機會通過在一系列新的關注點上與眾不同來獲得優勢。與政策制定者必須試圖哄騙不情愿的公眾和根深蒂固的權力做出必要的犧牲以建設更美好的未來不同，制造公司的高管們今天有各種各樣的機會可以采取行

139、動，為一些社會最緊迫的問題提出解決方案.無論這意味著發明一種疫苗來阻止全球大流行，還是通過制造電動汽車來限制氣候變化，制造商都有一個不尋常的機會來創造世界需要的價值。對于最敏捷的，這也可能被證明是獲得持久競爭優勢的千載難逢的機會。customer with greater efficiency than ever before is our sixth and final trend,and its an advance that is changing how almost every human organization operates.From government to bankin

140、g,entertainment to education,healthcare to consulting,digitalization is powering a variety of revolutions.Manufacturers are no exception to the rule.In the early stages of digitalization,the most apparent changes for manufacturing companies were ERP systems and for the consumer-facing,web sales.Now,

141、however,the factory can be thoroughly digitalized,and many companies are seeing encouraging results.The technologies people have discussed for years(IoT,Industry 4.0,artificial intelligence,and big data)have finally matured,and are ready to speed manufacturing ahead.Within the factory,the rise of Io

142、T and Industry 4.0 devices,such as robots,autonomous guided vehicles,sensors,augmented reality technology for workers,and additive manufacturing,is leading to smarter,better-connected supply chains and more transparency across suppliers and customers,reducing the need for inventory.At the same time,

143、autonomous robots and smart floor conveyors keep increasing the flexibility and efficiency of factory space.AI in manufacturing can take over more and more complex tasks,produce more complex products,and perform quality control on those products.28 Moreover,predictive maintenance can use big data an

144、d AI to predict failures in a manufacturing environment,increasing uptime and reducing production costs.29However,digitalization also comes with new threats,first and foremost cybersecurity.Manufacturers need to adapt to hacker attacks from countries outside their jurisdiction,create backups and red

145、undancy in their systems and invest in new digital capabilities and human resources in order not to become vulnerable.In the past,a fire in a plant was able to stop production in that one plant.Nowadays,a system shutdown in the central IT system is able to shut down the complete production of all pl

146、ants.On the demand side,the urgency to make these changes continues to grow.In a post-Covid survey of manufacturers in the US,76 percent of respondents state that they will be increasing investments in digitalization.30 Manufacturers are also looking to digital assistance to meet efficiency targets

147、and make the supply chain greener by driving greater efficiency in the usage of energy and raw materials.No wonder that in the 2021 State of Manufacturing Report by Fictiv,91 percent of senior executives at its 250+member companies reported that they had increased their investment in digital busines

148、s.Virtually everyone 95 percent said they see a digital transformation as essential to the companys future success.With digitalization,consumer orders can immediately be transferred upstream and related parts ordered just in time.If parts or production capacities are missing,their absence can be imm

149、ediately communicated to the customer and dissatisfaction with delivery avoided.Digitalization can reduce the amount of inventory that needs to be in stock and give procurement officers earlier warning about emerging supply shocks(such as Covid or the Suez blockage).Looking ahead,the Holy Grail for

150、manufacturing is complete digital transparency of the supply chain.The good news is that companies like DiIT,a specialist in integrated software solutions for wire harnesses,which has partnered with the University of Erlangen to develop continuous 100 percent traceability along an entire supply chai

151、n,are currently working on it.At first glance,these six trends might seem to confirm the feeling of many manufacturing executives that its not a good business to be in.There isnt a sector of manufacturing that doesnt face considerable challenges and pressure.But because these six megatrends have rea

152、ched a tipping point,manufacturing companies have a rare opportunity to gain the upper hand by differentiating themselves on a new range of concerns.Unlike policymakers who must try to cajole a reluctant public and entrenched powers to make the sacrifices necessary to build a better future,executive

153、s at manufacturing companies have a variety of opportunities they can act on today to come up with solutions to some of societys most pressing problems.Whether that means inventing a vaccine that stops a global pandemic or limiting climate change by building electric cars,manufacturers have an unusu

154、al opportunity to create value that the world needs.For the nimblest,this may also prove to be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to gain a lasting competitive edge.28 The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,AI-powered WiseEye automates fabric fault detection,2019,https:/www.polyu.edu.hk/cpa/milestones

155、/en/201903/technology_innovation/technology/ai_powered_wiseeye_automates_fabric_fault_detectio/index.html29 DLabs.ai,Predictive Maintenance:This Is How AI Can Transform Industry 4.0,2020,https:/dlabs.ai/blog/predictive-maintenance-this-is-how-ai-can-transform-industry-4-030 The Manufacturer,Manufact

156、urers increasing investments in digital technology in response to pandemic,2020,https:/ Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act14 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|3 介紹區域NGM基準正如美國政治家和長期擔任眾議院議長的托馬斯“提示”奧尼爾曾經指出的那樣，所有政治都是地方性的。同樣，全球制造最終也是本地化的。無論您在哪里制造和銷售，成功都取決于您管理制造、供應商和當地情況的能力。為了幫助您更清楚地了解這六種趨勢如何影響不同地區的公司，我們創建了一個記分卡，它采用30項公開可用

157、的數據衡量標準，并將它們與我們為17個最重要的制造市場確定的六種趨勢進行對比。與趨勢最相關的數字最高。例如，可持續性在瑞典排名4.3，這表明如果您想在瑞典制造，可持續性不是可選的問題。六種趨勢的強度因市場而異。在最大的制造業市場中，我們注意到我們的指標所顯示的目前最重要的特征。美國美國對于美國來說，最相關的趨勢是數字化（鑒于高風險資本投資、高比例的在線零售、企業對數字技術的大量使用以及數字公共服務的提供）、民粹主義（如高關稅所證明的）,對民主的滿意度低,民粹主義政黨的選票多,簽署的自由貿易協定數量少)和個性化(由于Hofstede個性化指數中的高分)。對制造業的影響是，面對不斷變化的法律要求，

158、許多公司必須保護其供應鏈并重新評估其生產策略。他們還需要通過使用更多的自動化和大數據以及通過向消費者提供高度個性化的商品和相關服務包來進行更多投資并適應對數字化的高期望。中國中國與中國最相關的趨勢是行業顛覆（由于每GDP的大量專利和研發支出高）和地理位置（考慮到營商便利、良好的物流績效、廉價的能源和勞動力以及良好的教育），盡管可持續性正在迅速追趕，并將在未來發揮關鍵作用。對制造業的影響是，中國仍將是一個可供投資的增長型市場，并將繼續推動世界創新。因此，制造商應投資于年輕人才和新技術，并嘗試與可持續性等方面相關的新商業模式。歐盟歐盟就優勢而言，目前歐盟最引人注目的是其意識形態氣候。除了民粹主義傾

159、向外，大量的自由貿易協定和對其他國家產品的低關稅表明了對開放市場的堅定承諾。同時，可持續性也與歐盟密切相關，正如歐盟在羅蘭貝格氣候變化作戰雷達上的高分、強烈的性別平等、高水平的勞工權利和其他相關標準所表明的那樣。因此，公司應繼續在歐盟投資，并利用有利的當地市場和開展業務的條件。他們應該通過轉變其制造業務以實現可持續發展并提供更可持續的商品和服務，從而在可持續發展領域處于領先地位。巴西巴西與巴西最相關的趨勢是民粹主義（民粹主義政權的高投票率、高水平的貿易關稅、高度的腐敗以及簽署的自由貿易協定水平低）和地點問題（鑒于高水平的失業、低工資和能源價格）。3 Introducing theRegiona

160、l NGM BenchmarkAS THOMAS TIP ONEILL,the American politician and long-time Speaker of the House of Representatives,once noted,all politics is local.Similarly,global manufacturing is also local in the end.Wherever you make and sell,success comes down to how well you manage your manufacturing,suppliers

161、 and local circumstances.To help you see more clearly how these six trends are affecting companies in different regions,we have created a scorecard that takes 30 publicly available data measures and maps them against our six identified trends for 17 of the most important manufacturing markets.Number

162、s are highest where the trend is most relevant.For example,sustainability ranks 4.3 in Sweden,an indication that if you want to manufacture in Sweden,sustainability is not an optional concern.D The strength of the six trends differs from market to market.Among the biggest manufacturing markets,we no

163、te what our indicators suggest are the most significant characteristics now.USAFor the US,the most relevant trends are digitalization(given high venture capital investment,a high share of online retail,high usage of digital technologies by enterprises,and the offering of digital public services),pop

164、ulism(as evidenced by high levels of tariffs,low satisfaction with democracy,large numbers of votes for a populist party,and the low number of free trade agreements signed)and individualization(owing to the high score in the Hofstede individualization index).The impact for manufacturing is that many

165、 companies have to secure their supply chains and reevaluate their production strategy in the face of changing legal requirements.They also need to invest more and adapt to the high expectations regarding digitalization by using,say,more automation and big data and by delivering highly individualize

166、d goods and related service packages to consumers.CHINAThe most relevant trends for China are industry disruption(owing to the high number of patents per GDP and high spending on R&D)and location(considering ease of doing business,good logistical performance,cheap energy and labor,and good education

167、),although sustainability is quickly catching up and will play a key role in the future.The consequences for manufacturing are that China will remain a growth market in which to invest and which will continue to drive world innovation.Manufacturers should thus invest in young talent and new technolo

168、gies and try out new business models with relevance to aspects like sustainability.EUIn terms of strengths,what is most striking in the EU at the moment is its ideological climate.Aside from tendencies towards populism,the large number of free trade agreements and low tariffs on other countries prod

169、ucts are indications of a deep commitment to open markets.At the same time,sustainability is also strongly relevant to the EU,as indicated by the EUs high score on the Roland Berger Climate Change Combat Radar,the strong gender equality,a high level of labor rights,and other related criteria.Compani

170、es should thus continue to invest in the EU and take advantage of the beneficial local market and conditions for doing business.They should lead in the sustainability space by transforming their manufacturing operations to end up with a sustainable footprint and offering more sustainable goods and s

171、ervices.BRAZILThe most relevant trends for Brazil are populism(as evidenced by the high share of votes for a populist regime,the high level of trade tariffs,high perceived corruption,and low level of free trade agreements signed)and location matters(given high levels of unemployment,low wages,and en

172、ergy prices).14 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動15|因此，公司應該為這個經常供應整個南美地區的大型市場中的破壞性事件做好準備，并通過多源、多工廠戰略對沖風險。需要建立替代材料和勞動力來源，以確保穩健的制造運營和為未來做好準備。印度印度與巴西相似，與印度最相關的趨勢也是地理位置問題，(圍繞經商的便利、良好的物流、廉價的勞動力和能源)和民粹主義(由于高水平的貿易關稅、高水平的政黨意識、簽署的自由貿易協定數量少以及民粹主義政府的高選民比例)。在這方面，制造商也應投資于不斷增長且具有吸引力的市場，但要為供應鏈

173、中斷做好準備，這可能源于意外的民粹主義法規、原材料的缺乏或公眾動蕩。D不同地區，不同影響不同地區，不同影響六大趨勢的強度因市場而異可持續性將繼續存在可持續性將繼續存在數字化取勝數字化取勝行業顛覆處于最前沿行業顛覆處于最前沿民粹主義抬頭民粹主義抬頭位置更重要位置更重要巴西美國中國印度歐盟（平均）向大規模個性化轉型向大規模個性化轉型資料來源：羅蘭貝格54321location matters(around ease of doing business,good logistics,and cheap labor and energy)and populism(due to the high lev

174、el of trade tariffs,high level of awareness of political parties,low number of free trade agreements signed,and high voter share for populist governments).Here too,manufacturers should invest in the growing and attractive market but brace themselves for disruptions in the supply chain that may stem

175、from unexpected populist regulations,unavailability of raw materials,or public unrest.Companies should thus prepare for disruptive events in this large market that often supplies the whole region of South America and hedge their risks with a multi sourcing,multi plant strategy.Alternative materials

176、and sources of labor need to be established in order to ensure robust manufacturing operations and preparedness for the future.INDIASimilar to Brazil,the most relevant trends for India are also Source:Roland BergerDDifferent regions,different impactHOW THE STRENGTH OF THE SIX TRENDS DIFFERS FROM MAR

177、KET TO MARKETSustainability is here to stayTransformation to mass individualizationIndustry disruption at the forefrontDigitalization to winLocation matters morePopulism on the riseBrazilUSAChinaIndiaEU(average)1543215Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act16 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|4 重塑制造業為什么該趨勢應該被視為機遇，而不是

178、詛咒。我們的調查發現我們的調查發現，制造業高管感受到的壓力感因地區和規模而異。來自亞洲(不包括中國)的公司更有可能感受到壓力79%的亞洲公司比59%的美國公司更有壓力?；蛟S并非巧合的是，只有41%的美國公司希望停止生產，相比之下，60%的亞洲公司(不包括中國)、50%的中國公司和53%的歐洲公司希望停止生產。會不會是那些在向中國和墨西哥轉移的大潮中幸存下來的美國制造企業擁有特殊程度的適應力，或者對自己的專業領域感到異常安全?收入超過5億美元的公司的領導者比小盤公司更有可能感受到巨大的壓力(68%-76%vs38%)。然而，這些大公司也更有可能在驅動這種壓力的六個趨勢中看到重新配置制造業的機會窗

179、口(88%對營收超過100億歐元和低于5億歐元的公司分別為54%)。當今最成功的三家制造公司的例子表明，這些大公司的領導者在這個充滿挑戰的時代感知機遇并沒有錯：特斯拉成立17年后，市值已超過所有其他汽車制造公司，證明了投資者對未來成功的高度信心。他們通過遵循所有六大趨勢來做到這一點：只生產可以使用可再生能源的車輛；通過生產自己的太陽能來使他們的制造足跡更加環保；引領電氣化和自動駕駛等顛覆性技術；通過建立區域生產足跡；通過個性化軟件;通過及早獲得關鍵原材料；并投資于高度自動化和新的生產技術。例如，通過其新開發的Gigapress，特斯拉能夠將相應底盤部分的組件數量從70個減少到1個。臺積電是全球

180、最大的半導體制造商，擁有超過50%的市場份額和極高的盈利能力。公司實施了降低能耗的綠色制造系統；與戰略客戶和供應商合作；通過提供設計靈活性和尖端制造，發明了新的價值創造模式；并且正在建立其全球制造足跡。它還使用大數據來優化流程，并將其制造運營的幾乎每個方面都實現了數字化。減少原材料和能源的消耗不僅影響利潤，而且使公司成為全球可持續發展的領跑者。與此同時，米其林正在向世人展示，老牌企業可以在這個美麗的新世界取得成功。這家有132年歷史的輪胎制造商正在將可持續性嵌入其DNA中，通過在其原料中取代以石油和橡膠為基礎的材料，根據行駛里程租賃輪胎，并與回收公司和微型膠粉制造商合作以確保供應鏈安全，建立了

181、新的價值創造模式和戰略合作伙伴關系。自2014年推出其所謂的4R戰略(減少、再利用、回收、更新)以來，米其林的股價上漲了50%以上。盡管他們各自采取了截然不同的戰略，但這三個企業的領導者都明白，今天對價值的定義要求的不僅僅是更低的價格、更快的交付和更好的質量。相反，他們被要求更加可持續，并以更加謹慎、更加敏捷、更好的價值觀和更好的風險管理來管理他們的供應鏈。4 Manufacturing reinvented Why the trends should be seenas an opportunity,not a curse.software;by securing critical raw

182、materials early on;and by investing in high automation and new production technologies.Through its newly developed Gigapress,for example,Tesla was able to reduce the number of components in the respective chassis section from 70 to 1.TSMC is the the largest semiconductor fabricator in the world with

183、 over 50 percent market share and sky-high profitability.The firm implemented green manufacturing systems that reduce power;partnered with strategic customers and suppliers;invented new value creation models by offering design flexibility and cutting-edge manufacturing;and is building on its worldwi

184、de manufacturing footprint.It also uses big data to optimize processes and has digitalized almost every aspect of its manufacturing operations.Reducing the consumption of raw materials and energy not only impacts the bottom line but also positions the company as a front-runner in global sustainabili

185、ty.Michelin,meanwhile,is showing that old companies can succeed in this brave new world.The 132-year-old tire manu-facturer is embedding sustainability in its DNA,enabling new value creation models and strategic partnerships by replacing oil and rubber-based materials in their feedstocks,leasing the

186、ir tires based on kilometers run,and partnering with recycling companies and micronized rubber powder manufacturers to secure their supply chain.Since introducing what it calls its 4R strategy(reduce,reuse,recycle,renew)in 2014,Michelin has grown its stock price by over 50 percent.Although they have

187、 each pursued very different strategies,the leaders of these three businesses have understood that todays definition of value demands more than a lower price,faster delivery,and better quality.Instead,they are being called upon to be more sustainable and govern their supply chain with more care,more

188、 agility,better values,and better risk management.FOUR SURVEY FOUND that the sense of pressure that manufacturing executives feel varies dramatically by region and size.Companies from Asia(excl.China)are more likely to feel under pressure 79 percent of Asian companies compared to 59 percent of Ameri

189、can companies.Perhaps not coincidentally,only 41 percent of American companies would want to stop manufacturing compared to 60 percent of businesses from Asia(excl.China),50 percent of Chinese firms,and 53 percent of European companies.Could it be that the American manufacturing companies that have

190、survived the exodus to China and Mexico possess a special degree of resilience or feel unusually secure in their niche?Leaders of companies with revenues of more than USD 500 m were much more likely to feel under intense pressure than smaller caps(68-76 percent vs.38 percent).However,these large fir

191、ms are also more likely to see in the six trends that drive this pressure a window of opportunity to reconfigure manufacturing(88 percent vs.54 percent for companies with more than EUR 10 bn and less than EUR 500 m revenue,respectively).E The example of three of todays most successful manufacturing

192、companies suggest that these large-company leaders are not wrong in sensing opportunity in these challenging times:Tesla has surpassed all other automotive manufacturing companies by market cap 17 years after its founding,testifying to high investor confidence in future success.They did it by follow

193、ing all six of the megatrends:by producing only vehicles that can use renewable energy;by producing their own solar power to make their manufacturing footprint greener;by leading in disruptive technologies such as electrification and autonomous driving;by establishing a regional production footprint

194、;by individualizing through 16 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動17|E趨勢是你的朋友嗎？趨勢是你的朋友嗎？大公司和亞洲公司認為大趨勢是積極的NGM 機會NGM 機會當前趨勢提供了重新思考制造業的機會之窗當前趨勢提供了重新思考制造業的機會之窗%1 當前趨勢提供了重新思考制造業的機會之窗當前趨勢提供了重新思考制造業的機會之窗%1 8186716788807254亞洲中國歐盟美國10,000m(不包括中國)收入歐元收入歐元收入歐元收入因此，利用NGM的公司可以提高制造績效和競爭力%因此，利用N

195、GM的公司可以提高制造績效和競爭力%1 因此，利用NGM的公司可以提高制造績效和競爭力%因此，利用NGM的公司可以提高制造績效和競爭力%1 8582677277808254亞洲中國歐盟美國10,000m(不包括中國)收入歐元收入歐元收入歐元收入資料來源：羅蘭貝格1“同意”和“完全同意”回答的總百分比EIs the trend your friend?LARGER COMPANIES AND ASIAN COMPANIES SEE MEGATRENDS AS POSITIVESource:Roland Berger1 Total%of responses for Agree and Fully

196、agreeASIA (excl.CN)ASIA (excl.CN)CNCNEUEUUSUS10,000 m EUR revenue thus,companies that leverage NGM can boost manufacturing performance&competitiveness%1The current trends provide a window of opportunity to rethink manufacturing%1thus,companies that leverage NGM can boost manufacturing performance&co

197、mpetitiveness%1The current trends provide a window of opportunity to rethink manufacturing%185818286677172675477725480808288NGM opportunities10,000 m EUR revenue 17Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act18 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|制造業競爭力制造業競爭力（在過去）標準：主要關注成本標準：主要關注成本勞動材料等等F不僅僅是削減成本不僅僅是削減成本制造業新競爭力標準概述可持續性將繼續存在

198、可持續性將繼續存在數字化取勝數字化取勝行業顛覆走在最前列行業顛覆走在最前列趨勢的影響趨勢的影響民粹主義抬頭民粹主義抬頭位置更重要位置更重要向大規模個性化轉型向大規模個性化轉型制造業競爭力制造業競爭力（現在和未來）標準：擴大標準：擴大勞動力和材料對CO2排放的影響（例如物流概念）對ESG的影響新風險（例如關鍵原材料的可用性）新的足跡方面（例如政府的本地制造要求）數據的可用性/訪問權限.機會之窗機會之窗積極應對新標準，不僅可以提高制造業的競爭力，也可以提高整個公司的競爭力資料來源：羅蘭貝格FMore than cost cuttingAN OVERVIEW OF THE NEW COMPETITI

199、VENESS CRITERIA FOR MANUFACTURINGSource:Roland BergerCriteria:Major focus on cost Labor Materials etc.Competitiveness of manufacturing(In the past)Transformation to mass individualizationLocation matters moreSustainability is here to stayDigitalization to winPopulism on the riseIndustry disruptionat

200、 the forefrontIMPACT OF TRENDSProactively addressing the new criteria not only boosts the competitiveness of manufacturing but also the competitiveness of the entire companyWindow of opportunityCriteria:Broadening Labor&materials Impact on CO2 emissions(e.g.logistics concept)Impact on ESG New risk(e

201、.g.availability of critical raw materials)New footprint aspects(e.g.local manufacturing requirements by governments)Availability of/access to data .Competitiveness of manufacturing (Today&in the future)18 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動19|5 如何成為一名下一代制造商下一代制造不是單一的下一代制造不是單一的一勞永逸

202、的方法論。這是一系列利用數字化、市場需求和當下需求的做法，幫助您在所在行業贏得持久的競爭優勢。正如我們在上面看到的，擁有全球足跡的大公司特別有可能將制造業視為一種負擔。在競爭激烈的環境中生產更多商品化產品且缺乏技術優勢的公司正在遭受痛苦并尋求退出?？沙掷m性問題、全球化競爭、供應鏈短缺、民粹主義或破壞性事件造成的中斷、數字化的競爭以及消費者需求的增加導致成本和限制不斷上升，這些因素每年都在給它們帶來更大的壓力。但如果米其林和其他老牌公司能夠利用這些趨勢發揮他們的優勢，你也可以。1.在制造業中嵌入可持續性要求。在制造業中嵌入可持續性要求。如果產品“更環?！?，大部分且不斷增長的人口愿意為產品支付溢價

203、。與此同時，政府正在補貼和激勵向更可持續實踐的過渡。隨著對全球變暖的擔憂加劇，大多數分析師認為，在這些獎勵之后將出現越來越大的懲罰，例如美國大學捐贈基金對石化公司股票撤資的新生行動?，F在采取行動可能更有利，而可持續性仍然提供競爭優勢，而不僅僅是開展業務的成本。31 Statista,Verbrauchs-und Medienanalysis VuMA 2021,2020,https:/ How to become aNext Generation ManufacturerNEXT GENERATION MANUFACTURING isnt a single once-and-done meth

204、odology.Its a range of practices that take advantage of digitalization,the needs of the market,and the needs of the moment to help you win a lasting competitive edge in your sector.As we have seen above,large companies with a global footprint are particularly likely to see manufacturing as a liabili

205、ty.Companies in very competitive environments that produce more commoditized products and lack a technological edge are suffering and looking for an exit.Rising costs and constraints arising out of sustainability concerns,globalized competition,supply chain shortages,disruptions due to populist or d

206、isruptive events,competition from digitalization,and increased consumer demands are squeezing them harder every year.But if Michelin and other old companies have been able to leverage these trends to their advantage,so can you.G1.Embed sustainability requirements in manufacturing.A large and growing

207、 part of the population is willing to pay a premium for a product if it is greener.31 Governments,meanwhile,are subsidizing and incentivizing transitions to more sustainable practices.As anxiety about global warming rises,most analysts believe that these carrots will be followed by increasingly big

208、sticks,such as the nascent move toward petrochemical company stock divestment by US university endowments.Its likely more advantageous to act now,while sustainability still offers a competitive edge and is not yet just a cost of doing business.Concrete measures to take in manufacturing might include

209、:Increase your energy efficiency,change your manufacturing processes,generate your own or buy renewable energy,change your fleet to green Strengthen your efforts in attracting a more diverse workforce Audit key CO2 sources in your product supply chain and develop an improved roadmap with key supplie

210、rs Get yourself audited by a specialized sustainability agency to create more transparency and better KPIs2.Reconfigure your manufacturing footprint.For the last 40 years,manufacturing companies had put labor arbitrage as their highest priority.Now,automation and a new-found sense of vulnerability a

211、re encouraging many manufacturers to try to bring their production assets closer to their customers.What makes most sense for your firm now?What locations will be more advantageous to you in a few years,as automation continues to advance,and the cost of renewable power continues to decline?Like a ch

212、ess player,you need to look at both where you are now and where you want to be.Concrete measures to take in manufacturing might include:Redesign your manufacturing footprint from global to regional factories Rethink investments/expansions in countries where populism could become a risk for(global)tr

213、ade Consider the risk of supply chain disruptions and increasing logistics costs and move production and supply chains closer to the end markets.Automation will help you produce closer/in high-cost markets Reconfigure the footprint depending on the availability of(cheap)green energy Create a network

214、 of mini plants to serve local markets3.Establish new collaborations and methods of partnerships.Mastering the new trends in manufacturing requires com-petencies that many companies currently do not have.In 31 Statista,Verbrauchs-und Medienanalyse VuMA 2021,2020,https:/ Generation Manufacturing|Thin

215、k:Act20 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|總共約 70 項措施總共約 70 項措施G從這里到達那里從這里到達那里介紹下一代制造的八個層次傳統杠桿傳統杠桿下一代制造下一代制造多年來，出路是多年來，出路是杠桿杠桿描述描述杠桿杠桿描述描述嵌入式可持續性嵌入式可持續性創造透明度并加強可持續性數字技術數字技術利用數字技術和IIoT（工業物聯網）制造足跡重新配置伙伴關系制造足跡重新配置伙伴關系重新考慮區域站點足跡建立新的伙伴關系/合作供應商網絡供應商網絡新的生產技術新的生產技術重新思考供應商網絡與協作重新評估物理生產技術新的商業模式新的商業模式重新思考價值創造的深度提高效率提高效率降低直接和間接成本

216、資料來源：羅蘭貝格3自動化自動化2低成本國家低成本國家1精益管理精益管理84261537GGetting there from hereINTRODUCING THE EIGHT LEVERS OF NEXT GENERATION MANUFACTURINGLeverLeverFor years,the way out wasDescriptionDescriptionNew business modelsRethink depth of value creation4Boosted efficiencyReduce direct and indirect costs 8Manufacturi

217、ng footprint reconfigura-tionRethink regional site footprint2Supplier networkRethink supplier network&collaboration6Embedded sustainabilityCreate transparency and enforce sustainability1Digital technologiesLeverage digital technologies&IIoT5PartnershipsEstablish new partnerships/collaborations3New p

218、roduction technologiesReevaluate physical production technologies7TRADITIONAL LEVERSNEXT GENERATION MANUFACTURINGAutomation3Low-cost countries2Lean management1Source:Roland Berger70 MEASURES IN TOTAL 20 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動21|要許多公司目前不具備的能力。此外，規模對于在供應商給予您的優先級（例如半導體）方

219、面擁有重要發言權變得同樣重要。因此，伙伴關系變得越來越重要。采取的具體措施可能包括：與其他行業的領導者合作以加速創新并確保獲得新技術（例如力拓和蘋果的綠色鋁）通過收購或與關鍵技術供應商建立獨家合作伙伴關系（例如特斯拉收購Grohmann Engineering），確保獲得關鍵技術建立制造集群，實現生產資產共享加入平臺（如Catena-X）以建立價值鏈上的智能數據交換并優化整體流程與客戶共同設計聯合制造4.考慮重新創造價值的新商業模式考慮重新創造價值的新商業模式。下一代制造不僅僅是以不同的方式做事。這也是關于做不同的事情?？紤]新商業模式的機會，例如：提供制造即服務將制造資產利用率更改為按使用付費

220、，即僅在您實際使用機器時向供應商付款通過將選定的流程劃分為獨立公司（例如MAN鑄造廠），向競爭對手開放您的能力銷售制造數據集，例如特定機器類型的性能數據5.利用數字技術利用數字技術。車間數字化將提高效率和透明度，從而成為大多數其他杠桿的推動力。采取的具體措施可能包括：使用自動化、機器人和支持人工智能的生產計劃和執行使用數字化更好地與您的客戶（訂購、訂單管理）以及您的供應鏈（供應鏈連接系統）建立聯系，以增加信任并減少庫存需求通過使用分析以及云和邊緣計算來利用您的數據來生成有助于您進一步發展的見解6.重新設計您的供應商網絡。重新設計您的供應商網絡。您的供應商是您成功的一部分，甚至是您成功的核心。利

221、用他們的核心競爭力和資產是您成功的關鍵。采取的具體措施可能包括：通過外包更復雜的模塊，最大限度地利用供應商的專業知識和制造能力同時，審查您的供應鏈設置，重點關注當地的二氧化碳排放和物流工作確保通過云平臺與您的供應商進行智能數據集成，以實現產品和流程分析和改進增加供應鏈的多樣性以分散風險7.利用新的生產技術利用新的生產技術。公司需要利用新的生產技術和流程，這些技術和流程會導致生產力發生階梯式變化，并且對其他公司來說進入門檻很高。采取的具體措施可能包括：為早期識別新技術定義技術篩選流程成為研究和創新網絡的一部分保護您的生產技術IP以保持優勢8.提高效率。提高效率。作為傳統制造中最重要的杠桿，實現效

222、率仍然是企業最重要的杠桿之一。采取的具體措施可能包括：在投資I4.0/自動化之前最大限度地實現卓越運營根據技術篩選和用例分析，定義整體I4.0戰略和全球推廣計劃系統地分析過程改進潛力，包括間接制造領域，例如。機器人過程自動化6.Reengineer your supplier network.Your suppliers are part of or even the core of your success.Leveraging their core competency and assets is key to your success.Concrete measures to take

223、might include:Maximize the utilization of your suppliers know-how and manufacturing capabilities by outsourcing more complex modules At the same time,review your supply chain setup with a focus on local CO2 emissions and logistical efforts Assure smart data integration with your supplier via cloud p

224、latforms to enable product and process analysis and improvement Increase diversity in your supply chain in order to spread out risk7.Leverage new production technologies.Companies need to leverage new production technologies and processes that pose step changes in productivity and have a high barrie

225、r to entry for other companies.Concrete measures to take might include:Define a technology screening process for the early identification of new technologies Become part of research and innovation networks Protect your production technology IP to keep an advantage8.Boost efficiency.Having been the m

226、ost important lever in classical manufacturing,achieving efficiency is still one of the most important levers for companies.Concrete measures to take might include:Maximize operational excellence before investing in I4.0/automation Define an overall I4.0 strategy and global rollout plan based on tec

227、hnology screening and use case analysis Systematically analyze process improvement potential,including in indirect manufacturing areas,e.g.robotic process automationaddition,scale becomes equally important to have a significant say in the priority your suppliers give you(e.g.semiconductors).Thus,par

228、tnerships are more and more important.Concrete measures to take might include:Partner with leaders from other industries to accelerate innovation and assure access to new technologies(e.g.Rio Tinto and Apple for green aluminum)Assure access to critical know-how through takeovers or exclusive partner

229、ships with key technology suppliers(e.g.Tesla buying Grohmann Engineering)Set up manufacturing clusters for production asset sharing Join platforms(like Catena-X)to set up a smart exchange of data along the value chain and optimize overall processes Co-design for joint manufacturing with customers4.

230、Consider new business models that reinvent how you create value.Next Generation Manufacturing is not simply about doing things differently;its also about doing different things.Consider your opportunities for new business models,such as:Offer manufacturing as a service Change manufacturing asset uti

231、lization to pay-per-use,i.e.pay your supplier only for the time you actually use a machine Open your capacities to competitors by carving out selected processes into an independent company(e.g.MAN foundry)Sell manufacturing data sets,e.g.performance data of specific machine types5.Leverage digital t

232、echnologies.Digitalizing the shop floor will enable efficiency and transparency gains and thus serve as an enabler for most of the other levers.Concrete measures to take might include:Use automation,robots,and AI-enabled production planning and execution Use digitalization to better connect with you

233、r customers(ordering,order management)as well as your supply chain(supply chain connectivity systems)with the aim of increasing trust and reducing stock-keeping requirements Leverage your data by using analytics as well as cloud and edge computing to generate insights that will help you develop furt

234、her21Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act22 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|一家汽車供應商重回快車道一家汽車供應商重回快車道客戶端客戶端一家營業額超過10億歐元的汽車供應商，在全球近20個地點擁有5,000多名員工。公司簡介公司簡介總部FTE 的位置總部FTE 的位置收入收入德國5,000 名員工10億歐元在價值鏈中的位置在價值鏈中的位置原材料第 3 層2級第一層代工制造足跡制造足跡全球約 20 個地點全球約 20 個地點資料來源：公司資料；羅蘭貝格業務描述業務描述汽車零部件的開發和生產為上述產品提供售后服務和支持An automotive s

235、upplier moves back into the fast laneCASESTUDYTHE CLIENTAn automotive supplier with over EUR 1 bn turnover and more than 5,000 employees in almost 20 locations globally.Company profileSource:Company information;Roland BergerBusiness description Development and production of automotive components Pro

236、vision of after-sales services and support for said productsLocation of headquartersPosition in the value chainManufacturing footprintFTERevenueGermany 5,000 employees EUR 1 bnRaw materialTier 3Tier 2Tier 1OEM20 locations around the world22 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動23|挑戰

237、挑戰一家傳統的家族企業現在面臨：來自OEM客戶的巨大成本壓力以及來自亞洲低成本供應商的競爭 推動產品創新而不是生產創新的壓力越來越大推動產品創新而不是生產創新的壓力越來越大建立生產工藝技術能力需要大量投資制造深度但沒有明確的戰略方向制造深度但沒有明確的戰略方向大多數挑戰與全球大趨勢有關，這些趨勢滲透到當今業務的許多方面，并且難以用現有方法解決：原始設備制造商將可持續性要求提高為采購標準原始設備制造商將可持續性要求提高為采購標準由于對關鍵商品（例如半導體）的控制有限而產生的供應鏈風險 每個地區的專有技術能力的可用性和積累每個地區的專有技術能力的可用性和積累 政府和客戶對產品原產地和區域生產的認識

238、不斷提高政府和客戶對產品原產地和區域生產的認識不斷提高解決方案解決方案第一步是了解公司未來的戰略和愿景。該公司代表什么以及它想在哪個領域發展？第二步是了解公司在新愿景方面的定位，從市場趨勢開始，包括公司戰略和行動以及制造方面。公司在六大趨勢方面處于什么位置？它想去哪里發展？兩者之間的區別如下面的蜘蛛圖所示，是我們發現的下一代制造機會制造部門最有可能利用不同的趨勢來提高其績效，將自己定位為真正的價值創造者，并提高整體公司業績。事實證明，我們的客戶在所有趨勢中都具有巨大潛力，尤其是在利用可持續性和位置/區域化趨勢方面。通過彌合這一差距，我們的客戶將能夠更好地提高其競爭地位并應對其面臨的挑戰。在與客

239、戶合作仔細選擇對我們發現的關鍵差距影響最大的杠桿后，我們制作了一個優先級的杠桿列表（所有這些都包含一長串專門為解決機會而量身定制的措施）。突出顯示的杠桿對我們的客戶特別有吸引力，因為該公司非常成熟（因此已經采取行動提高效率）并且已經實施了解決制造某些方面的數字化戰略。經過深入討論，該列表被轉換為影響力矩陣，這是一個路線圖，用于彌合已識別的差距并從公司當前的制造足跡中釋放新價值。在這里，我們能夠將傳統的、眾所周知的措施（例如效率和自動化提高）以及相對較新的杠桿（例如重新思考增值和可持續性）聚集在一起。這為客戶提供了“速贏”和長期措施的路線圖，這將幫助公司實現其目標，并將制造從單純的成本中心轉變為

240、真正的資產，為客戶、股東和員工釋放新的價值。THE CHALLENGEA traditional,family-owned company now faced:Immense cost pressure from their OEM customers and competition from low-cost suppliers in Asia Increasing pressure to drive product innovation instead of production innovation Heavy investments required to build up produ

241、ction process technology capabilities Manufacturing depth but no clear strategic directionMost challenges were related to global megatrends that penetrate many aspects of business today and are difficult to resolve with established methods:Increasing sustainability requirements by the OEMs as purcha

242、sing criteria Supply chain risks arising due to limited control over critical goods(e.g.semiconductors)Know-how capability availability and build-up in each region Growing awareness around product origin and regional production by governments and customersTHE SOLUTIONThe first step was to understand

243、 the strategy and the vision of the company going forward.What did the company stand for and where did it want to play?The second step was to understand how the company was positioned with respect to its new vision,starting from the market trends,both in terms of corporate strategy and actions and i

244、n manufacturing.Where did the company stand in terms of the six megatrends and where did it want to go?The difference between the two,illustrated in the spider diagram below,was the Next Generation Manufacturing opportunity we identified where the manufacturing unit had the most potential to leverag

245、e the different trends to boost its performance,position itself as a true valuegenerator,and improve overall company performance.HOur client,it turned out,had significant potential in all of the trends,but especially in leveraging sustainability and location/regionalization trends.By bridging this g

246、ap,our client would be better able to improve its competitive positioning and address the challenges it faced.IAfter working with the client to carefully select the levers with the most impact on the critical gaps we identified,we made a prioritized list of levers(all of which contain a long list of

247、 measures specifically tailored to address opportunities).The highlighted levers were especially attractive to our client,because the company was quite mature(thus had already taken action to boost efficiency)and had already implemented a digitalization strategy that addressed some aspects of manufa

248、cturing.After a thorough discussion,this list was converted into an Impact-Effort Matrix,a roadmap to bridge the identified gaps and unlock new value from the companys current manufacturing footprint.Here,we were able to cluster traditional,well-known measures such as efficiency and automation incre

249、ase as well as relatively new levers such as rethinking value add and sustainability.This gave the client a roadmap of both quick wins and long-term measures that will help the company reach its goals and transform manufacturing from just a cost center to a real asset,unlocking new value for custome

250、rs,shareholders,and employees.23Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act24 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|HNGM機會蜘蛛網NGM機會蜘蛛網如何將制造業定位為真正的價值創造者可持續性將繼續存在4數字化取勝3行業顛覆2走在最前列1民粹主義崛起位置更重要制造戰略中解決趨勢的程度企業戰略在何種程度上解決了趨勢資料來源：羅蘭貝格向大規模個性化轉型1：戰略中沒有解決趨勢，也沒有設定目標2：部分確定趨勢，部分確定目標和措施部分確定趨勢，部分確定目標和措施3：戰略、措施和目標納入趨勢戰略、措施和目標納入趨勢4：趨勢是戰略的關鍵基石，措

251、施實施效果顯著HThe NGM opportunity spiderweb HOW TO POSITION MANUFACTURING AS A TRUE VALUE GENERATOR Sustainability is here to stayTransformation to mass individualizationIndustry disruption at the forefrontDigitalization to winLocation matters morePopulism on the riseDegree to which trend is addressed in

252、manufacturing strategy 1:The trend is not addressed in the strategy and no targets have been set2:Trend is partly identified,and targets and measures partly defined3:Trend incorporated in strategy and measures and targets are detailed4:Trend is a key cornerstone of the strategy,measures implemented

253、with visible resultsDegree to which trend is addressed in corporate strategySource:Roland Berger123424 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行動思考：行動25|I解鎖新價值解鎖新價值高效的影響力矩陣示例影響影響重新思考增值重新思考增值（例如，開發新的制造能力，轉變制造與購買）可轉型和自動化的車間（例如實施模塊化/平臺制造和具有數字化調度的小批量）生態系統和生態系統和新的伙伴關系方法（例如建立工業制造集群和大學伙伴關系）循環經濟設計循環經

254、濟設計（例如設計可回收產品）努力努力效率工業4.0伙伴關系/商業模式可持續性資料來源：羅蘭貝格通過流程優化提高成本競爭力（例如利用精益六西格碼，減少開銷）虛擬工廠虛擬工廠（例如，使用AR/VR、數字孿生）優步化制造（例如共享資產，實施按使用付費的生產資產）ESG透明度ESG透明度（例如跟蹤CO2排放，實施KPI監控）CASESTUDYIUnlocking new valueEXAMPLE OF A HIGHLY EFFECTIVE IMPACT-EFFORT MATRIX Cost competitiveness by process optimization (e.g.leverage Le

255、an Six Sigma,reduce overhead)Virtual factory(e.g.use AR/VR,digital twins)Transformable&automated shopfloor(e.g.implement modular/platform manufacturing and smaller lot sizes with digitalized scheduling)Uberized manufacturing(e.g.share assets,implement pay-per-use production assets)ESG transparency (

256、e.g.track CO2 emissions,implement KPI monitoring)Value-add rethought(e.g.develop new manufacturing capabilities,shift make vs.buy)Design for circular economy (e.g.design recyclable products)Ecosystems&new methods of partnership(e.g.set up industry manufacturing clusters and university partnerships)I

257、mpactEffortSource:Roland BergerEfficiencyIndustry 4.0Partnerships/business modelsSustainability25Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act26 思考：行動思考：行動下一代制造|結論-過去和未來的功能幾十年過去了，傳統觀點認為制造業是聰明的高管想要逃避的艱難、混亂的業務，地緣政治和物理環境的變化以及技術的進步可能很快就會改變這種共識。特斯拉和米其林等世界一流公司的例子表明，制造業仍然具有重要意義。在這個新時代，制造并不容易它什么時候容易過？但它可能很快就會再次成為

258、一個偉大的時刻，因為制造商向他們的客戶提供的產品和解決方案比以前認為的更適合他們的精確需求和愿望。并非所有制造商都能實現這一轉變。許多人將繼續努力以二十世紀的戰略應對二十一世紀的挑戰。改變所需的學習可能過于深刻，而為獲取價值而制定的新戰略與他們以前的傳統經驗相去甚遠。但有了正確的商業模式和正確的技術組合，您就不必成為恐龍中的一員。制造部門也可以通過成為價值創造者而不是削減成本的目標來提高他們在組織中的重要性?，F在融合的大趨勢提供了一個獨特的機會，使這個經常被忽視的部門成為組織內的明星。政府可能是這項努力的重要盟友。政策制定者應注意，各國可以通過利用這些大趨勢來獲得競爭優勢，從而加強其制造業部門

259、、關鍵的經濟驅動力和就業提供者以及稅收和財富的重要來源。區域化和其他重要驅動力的復蘇表明，低成本是有限度的，現在可以在國內產生價值。沒有多少空閑時間了。汽車行業等主要制造業的變革已經在進行中。機器學習和增材制造等革命性技術的新用途每天都在被發現。想要在這個新世界中發揮作用的公司將需要盡快發明一個。AFTER DECADES in which conventional wisdom considered manufacturing a tough,messy business smart executives would want to escape,changes in the geopoli

260、tical and the physical environments and advances in technology may soon alter that consensus.The example of such world-beating companies as Tesla and Michelin shows that manufacturing is still relevant.Manufacturing wont be easy in this new era when was it ever an easy business?but it may soon be a

261、great one again,as manufacturers deliver to their customers products and solutions better suited to their precise needs and desires than previously considered possible.Not all manufacturers will be able to make this transition.Many will keep on trying to meet twenty-first century challenges with twe

262、ntieth century strategies.The learning required to change may be too profound and the development of new strategies for capturing value too far removed from their previous conventional experience.But with the right business model and the right mix of technologies,you dont have to be one of the dinos

263、aurs.Manufacturing departments can also raise their importance in their organization by becoming value generators instead of targets for cost cutting.The now converging mega-trends offer a unique opportunity to make this often-overlooked department a star within the organization.Governments may be a

264、n important ally in this effort.Policymakers should note that countries can strengthen their manufacturing sectors,a key economic driver and provider of employment,and a substantial generator of taxes and wealth,by leveraging these megatrends to gain a competitive advantage.The resurgence of regiona

265、lization and other important drivers show that low cost has a limit and value can now be generated right at home.There is not much time to spare.Changes in major manufacturing industries,such as the automotive sector,are already underway.New uses for revolutionary technologies,such as machine learning and additive manufacturing,are being found every day.Companies that want a role in this new world will need to invent one soon.Conclusion The once and future function26 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing