1、ResearchPearl River Delta Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewQuarterly Report Q4 2022PRDJanuary 202302PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview01PRD Macroeconomic OverviewGuangdong Province Pearl River Delta City ClusterZhaoqingFoshanJiangmenGuangzhouDongguanZ

2、hongshanZhuhaiShenzhenHuizhouRegional Overview03PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewPRDs Share in Chinas Total GDP,20228.6%PRDs Share in Chinas Total Retail Sales,20228.0%PRDs Share in Chinas TotalPopulation,20215.6%PRDs Share in Chinas Import&Export Volume,202218.9%Source:Na

3、tional and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform04PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewPRDs Overall Economy Remained Stable in 2022Q1Q2Q3Q42,3922,2502,1821,8982,6222,3462,1521,8332,9422,4762,4322,2093,0332,6052,5122,317PRDs GDP,2019-2022(Billion RMB)Y

4、oY Nominal Growth,Q4 2022+3.1%Growth vs Q3YoY Nominal Growth,2022+4.1%Growth vs 2021Source:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform201920202021202275375874471189183975064289686482186089490782487105PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewPRDs Re

5、tail Sales Recorded a Slight Increase in 2022PRDs Retail Sales,2019-2022(Billion RMB)YoY Nominal Growth,Q4 2022-0.2%Growth vs Q3YoY Nominal Growth,2022+1.6%Growth vs 2021Source:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformQ1Q2Q3Q420192020202120229819498697761,057972887

6、6611,2711,0111,0048101,0741,0778831,309PRDs Secondary Sector Continued to Grow Steadily in 2022Value Added of Secondary Sector of the PRD,2019-2022(Billion RMB)YoY Nominal Growth,Q4 2022+2.9%Growth vs Q3YoY Nominal Growth,2022+6.0%Growth vs 202106PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market O

7、verviewQ1Q2Q3Q42019202020212022809732691631822693602575848673622624854689615614PRDs Freight Turnover in 2022 Showed Strong ResilienceFreight Turnover of Guangdong Province,2019-2022(Billion Ton-km)YoY Growth,Q4 2022+0.7%Growth vs Q3YoY Growth,2022+0.2%Growth vs 202107PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics

8、 Real Estate Market OverviewQ1Q2Q3Q42019202020212022Key Economic Indicators in Each PRD CitySource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform08PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewThe total GDP of PRD remained above RMB 10 tn10 TrillionPRD cit

9、ies highest GDP growth in 2022 was 4.2%4.2%LegendGDP(Billion RMB,2022)&YoY Real GrowthImport&Export Volume(Billion RMB,2022)&YoY Nominal GrowthRetail Sales(Billion RMB,2022)&YoY Nominal GrowthZhaoqing271(+1.1%)39(-4.9%)112(-3.8%)Guangzhou2,884(+1.0%)1,095(+1.1%)1,030(+1.7%)Huizhou540(+4.2%)309(+1.2%

10、)204(+3.1%)Foshan1,270(+2.1%)6,64(+7.7%)359(+1.0%)Dongguan1,120(+0.6%)1,393(-8.7%)426(+0.4%)Shenzhen3,239(+3.3%)3,674(+3.7%)971(+2.2%)Zhongshan363(+0.5%)280(+4.1%)159(+4.1%)Jiangmen377(+3.3%)177(-0.9%)131(+2.4%)Zhuhai405(+2.3%)305(-8.0%)105(-0.3%)Overall Population Attractiveness of PRD Further Incr

11、eased in 2010 20202005-2010Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the PRDOutbound migration from Guangdong(to which PRD belongs)to regions such as Zhejiang,Shanghai,Beijing surpassed inbound migration from the abovementioned 3 regions,while inbound migration from all other provincial-level regions to

12、Guangdong surpassed outbound migration.2015-2020Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the PRDInbound migration from all other provincial-level regions except Zhejiang and Shanghai surpassed outbound migration.Net InflowNet OutflowSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Managem

13、ent Platform09PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewGuangzhou18.81(+0.72%)1,030(+1.7%)Zhaoqing4.13(+0.31%)112(-3.8%)Shenzhen17.68(+0.27%)971(+2.2%)Zhongshan4.47(+0.81%)159(+4.1%)Foshan9.61(+0.99%)359(+1.0%)Jiangmen4.84(+0.65%)131(+2.4%)Dongguan10.54(+0.51%)426(+0.4%)Huizhou6.07

14、(+0.15%)204(+3.1%)Population Growth in the PRD Continued to Drive Consumer Market ExpansionYRDShanghaiJiaxingNingboNanjingShaoxingHangzhouNantongHefeiSuzhouWuxiChengyuChengduMeishanChongqingJJJBeijingTianjinLangfangBaoding10PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewTIer-1 CitySatel

15、lite CityTIer-2 CityTIer-3 CityLegendPopulation Size(Million)and YoY Change Rate in 2021Retail Sales(Billion RMB)and YoY Nominal Change Rate in 2022Source:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform based on publicly available informationPopulation in 2021(Million)28.00,35.00)21.00,28.00)14.00,21.00)7.00,14

16、.00)0.00,7.00)Retail Sales in 2022(Billion RMB)1,200,1,800)900,1,200)600,900)300,600)0,300)02PRDs LogisticsMarket11PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewStock DistributionStock in Guangzhou,Foshan,Dongguan and Huizhou Took Up 80%of Regional TotalShenzhen merely accounted for 4.

17、5%of the total stock of the region due to land shortage4.5%Stock in Guangzhou,Foshan,Dongguan and Huizhou combinedtook up 80.0%of regional total80.0%Stock in Dongguan,Huizhou combined was 7.3 times of that in Shenzhen7.3TimesSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform12PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistic

18、s Real Estate Market OverviewFoshan3.36Dongguan3.26Guangzhou2.84Huizhou1.04Shenzhen0.59Jiangmen0.58Zhaoqing0.97Zhongshan0.482.00,5.001.00,2.00)0.00,1.00)Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Stock Floor Area(Million sqm)Overall Rent Level of PRD in Q4 Increased by 0.8%YoY1.31 RMB/sqm/day6 out of 8 key logist

19、ics markets in PRD registered QoQ drop6/8 CitiesSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform13PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview1.50,2.001.25,1.50)1.00,1.25)0.00,1.00)Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)and QoQ Change,Q4 2022 Foshan1.22-0.3%Foshan1.22-0.3%Dongguan1.46-1.7%Dongguan1.46-1

20、.7%Guangzhou1.44+1.1%Guangzhou1.44+1.1%Huizhou1.27-0.2%Huizhou1.27-0.2%Zhaoqing0.84-6.4%Zhaoqing0.84-6.4%Shenzhen1.56-4.8%Shenzhen1.56-4.8%Jiangmen1.09+1.2%Jiangmen1.09+1.2%Zhongshan1.21-3.0%Zhongshan1.21-3.0%RentOver 70%of PRD Cities Registered QoQ Drop in Q4OccupancyPRDs Overall Occupancy Fell Bel

21、ow 90%for the First Time in Two YearsOverall occupancy rate of PRD in Q4 fell by 5.5 pp YoY-5.5pp7 out of 8 key logistics markets in PRD registered QoQ drop7/8 Cities14PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)0.0%,8

22、0.0%)Average Occupancy Rate and QoQ Change,Q4 2022Foshan90.0%-1.9ppFoshan90.0%-1.9ppDongguan86.9%-9.9ppDongguan86.9%-9.9ppGuangzhou90.6%-3.8ppGuangzhou90.6%-3.8ppHuizhou95.3%-0.2ppHuizhou95.3%-0.2ppZhaoqing95.2%-1.2ppZhaoqing95.2%-1.2ppShenzhen96.2%-1.8ppShenzhen96.2%-1.8ppJiangmen99.3%+0.2ppJiangme

23、n99.3%+0.2ppZhongshan64.6%-34.4ppZhongshan64.6%-34.4pp4.50%,5.00%)5.00%,5.25%)5.25%,5.75%)5.75%,6.50%Cap Rate and QoQ Change,Q4 2022Foshan5.09%+12bpFoshan5.09%+12bpDongguan4.92%+9bpDongguan4.92%+9bpGuangzhou4.67%+12bpGuangzhou4.67%+12bpHuizhou5.29%-1bpHuizhou5.29%-1bpZhaoqing5.53%+3bpZhaoqing5.53%+3

24、bpShenzhen4.86%+31bpShenzhen4.86%+31bpJiangmen5.86%+12bpJiangmen5.86%+12bpZhongshan5.44%+12bpZhongshan5.44%+12bpCap RatesMost PRD Cities Slightly Increased in Q4Due to the rise of risk-free rates and the fluctuating leasing performance of the logistics sector,especially the rent drops registered in

25、many PRD markets,cap rates in 7 markets in PRD increased in 2022 Q4,in which most markets(except Shenzhen)have seen a minor increase of between 3 and 12 basis points.By contrast,the cap rate of Huizhou have seen a slight decrease of 1 basis point.As the core cities in the region,the cap rates of bot

26、h Guangzhou and Shenzhen remained below 5%in Q4,lowest among all PRD key logistics markets.Limited supply in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has led to a large-scale demand spillover to neighboring Foshan,Dongguan,Huizhou,and Zhongshan,driving down the cap rates in these markets to no greater than 5.75%.Sour

27、ce:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform15PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewLogistics Market Transactions in 2022Merely a few transaction cases in Chinas en-bloc logistics investment market in 2022 involved PRD markets.With the anticipated economic recovery resulting from the

28、 relaxation of COVID control measures and the gradual clarification of various uncertainties,investors decision-making processes are bound to accelerate in 2023.However,as the differentiation between different logistics markets in China deepens,choosing the right assets that are in accord with their

29、 investment strategies will become an important step for investors before making an investment decision.As the home to some of the best-performing,most stable and most resilient logistics markets in China,it is anticipated that the PRD will continue to attract investors attention.16PRD Non-bonded Gr

30、ade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformDateNameLocationNo.of AssetsGFA(sqm)Volume of Transaction(RMB mn)SellerBuyerCap RateJuly 2022ESR GIC Prime Logistics and Industrial PortfolioDongguan,Wuhan,Changsha,Chongqing,Nanjing,Wuxi,Shenyang,Tianjin9873,000Bal

31、ance Sheet4,900ESRGIC/ESR JV5.30%-5.80%June 2022SC Capital Morgan Stanley PortfolioNantong,Taicang,Jiaxing3210,770850SC CapitalMorgan Stanley5.30%May 2022Goodman NWS Logistics PortfolioChengdu,Wuhan6531,0002,290GoodmanNWS5.50%-6.00%May 2022Dongbai Link Logistics PortfolioChangshu,Jiaxing3192,144947D

32、ongbaiGroupLink5.10%-5.50%March 20222 Logistics Parks of China South CityHefei,Zhengzhou2405,7001,710China South CityShenzhen IntlN/AFebruary 2022DLJ Greater Shanghai Logistics PortfolioShanghai,Suzhou,Kunshan,Taicang,Hangzhou11558,3344,500DLJGIC/ESR JV4.50%February 2022Logistics Asset on 3130 S.Lia

33、nhua Rd.,Minhang,ShanghaiShanghai1131,2151,382ElandPing An/DNE5.00%Guangzhou&Foshan Logistics Sub-markets,Q4 2022Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)ConghuaZengchengHuangpuPanyuShundeGaomingNanhaiHuaduSanshuiAverage Occupancy RateConghuaZengchengHuangpuPanyuShundeGaomingNanhaiHuaduSanshui1.40,2.001.20,1.40)1.0

34、0,1.20)0.00,1.00)90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)0.0%,80.0%)Source:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform17PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSanshuiHuaduShundeGaomingConghuaZengchengHuangpuNanhaiPanyuNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)1.00,2.000.40,1.00)0.00,0.40)Shenzhen,Dongguan&

35、Huizhou Logistics Sub-markets,Q4 2022Average Occupancy RateHuiyangDongguanShenzhen1.50,2.001.30,1.50)1.00,1.30)0.00,1.00)90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)0.0%,80.0%)Non-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)1.00,5.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)DongguanHuiyangShenzhenSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform18PRD Non-bo

36、nded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)HuiyangDongguanShenzhen03Summary&Outlook1 MacroPRDs key economic indicators such as GDP,retail sales,import&export volume and secondary sector value added in 2022 have seen substantial growth despite unforeseen COVID impacts

37、such as hindered consumption and production slowdowns in many parts of the region.PRDs consumer market in Q4 registered YoY drop due to COVID impact,while real economy and international trade sectors in the region showed strong resilience despite COVID restrictions,providing solid support for the re

38、gions logistics market demand.3 Leasing PerformancePopularity of each PRD market is inversely proportional to their distance from Guangzhou and Shenzhen.PRD has seen the delivery of over 1.5 million sqm of new supply in 2022,equivalent to 13.4%of total stock in the region by 2021 Q4.PRDs overall occ

39、upancy rate dropped below 90%in Q4 due to new supply as well as sluggish demand.It is expected that PRDs overall leasing performance is bound to improve in 2023,as a result of demand rebound and slowdown in new supply,yet differentiation of performances between different cities or sub-markets may fu

40、rther intensify.2Demand3PL and conventional e-commerce users continued to dominate PRDs tenant composition.Due to the slowdown in economic growth and the consumer market resulting from COVID outbreaks,the growth of logistics demand in the PRD is also constrained to a certain extent in 2022.As we loo

41、k ahead to 2023,PRDs logistics demand is bound to gradually resume with the relaxation of COVID restrictions and the rebound of the consumer market.4InvestmentCap rates of most key logistics markets in the PRD remained stable in Q4.PRD has seen fewer en-bloc logistics transaction cases compared with

42、 YRD in 2022,yet PRD will remain a key focus area for investors in 2023 as leasing performance improves and market confidence resumes.As Chinas logistics real estate market continues to differentiate,differentiation of leasing performances between different markets within the PRD will further intens

43、ify.Choosing the right asset will become an increasingly important issue for investors.19PRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewScan&subscribeto stay tunedAbout ZhenliangDeveloped by JLL Valuation team,ZhenLiang Platform based on more than 30 years of real estate valuation pract

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