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1、JJJJanuary 2023ResearchBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewQuarterly Report Q4 202201JJJ Macroeconomic Overview02JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview03JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Loc

2、al Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformRegional OverviewBeijingHebeiTianjinJJJs Share in Chinas Total GDP,20228.3%JJJs Share in Chinas Total Population,20217.8%PRDs Share in Chinas Import&Export Volume,202214.8%JJJs Share in Chinas Total Retail Sales,20227.1%YoY Nominal Growth,Q

3、4 2022+6.7%Growth vs Q3YoY Nominal Growth,2022+4.1%Growth vs 2021JJJs Overall Economy Remained Stable in 2022JJJs GDP,2019-2022(Billion RMB)Q1Q2Q3Q404JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformJJJs Re

4、tail Sales Recorded a Notable Decline in 2022YoY Nominal Growth,Q4 2022-21.7%Growth vs Q3YoY Nominal Growth,2022-7.1%Growth vs 2021JJJs Retail Sales,2019-2022(Billion RMB)Q1Q2Q3Q405JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang A

5、sset Management PlatformJJJs Secondary Sector Remained Stable in 2022YoY Nominal Growth,Q4 2022-5.2%Growth vs Q3YoY Nominal Growth,2022+0.7%Growth vs 2021Value Added of Secondary Sector of the JJJ,2019-2022(Billion RMB)Q1Q2Q3Q406JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:Nati

6、onal and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformJJJs Freight Turnover in 2022 Dropped due to COVID SurgeYoY Growth,Q4 2022-9.2%Growth vs Q3YoY Growth,2022-6.2%Growth vs 2021Freight Turnover of JJJ,2019-2022(Billion Ton-km)Q1Q2Q3Q407JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate

7、 Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformKey Economic Indicators in Each JJJ City08JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformBeijing4,161(+0.

8、7%)3,640(+19.7%)1,379(-7.2%)Hebei4,237(+3.8%)563(+3.9%)1,372(+1.6%)Tianjin1,631(+1.0%)2,010(+21.1%)357(-5.2%)LegendGDP(Billion RMB,2022)&YoY Real GrowthImport&Export Volume(Billion RMB,2022)&YoY Nominal GrowthRetail Sales(Billion RMB,2022)&YoY Nominal GrowthBeijings Share in JJJs Import&Export Volum

9、e,202260%YoY Nominal Growth of Import&Export Volume in Beijing&Tianjin,2022+20%YoY Nominal Growth of Beijings Retail Sales-7.2%YoY Nominal Growth of Tianjins Retail Sales-5.2%As the key powerhouse of the regions economy,Beijing accounted for over 40%of JJJs total GDP and retail sales and contributed

10、 60%of JJJs total import&export volume.Import&export in both Beijing and Tianjin have seen 20%growth in 2022 despite various pressures.Beijing&Tianjins consumption have been hindered by multiple waves of COVID outbreak,thus their retail sales dropped 7.2%and 5.2%YoY respectively in 2022.As COVID sit

11、uation gets under control,Beijing&Tianjins consumption are expected to rebound in 2023.Overall Population Attractiveness of JJJ Decreased Gradually in 2010 202009JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Pla

12、tform2005-2010Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the JJJInbound migration from all provincial-level regions except Shanghai and Guangdong surpassed outbound migration.2015-2020Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the JJJAn increasing number of people has moved out of the region to south-eastern co

13、astal regions such as YRD and PRD.This indicates that JJJs economic growth is under pressure in the past decade,leading to a weakening population attractiveness.Net InflowNet OutflowThe Population Attractiveness of JJJ Further Weakened in 2021Beijing21.89(-0.02%)1,379.4(-7.2%)Langfang5.54(+0.95%)141

14、.0(+0.5%)Tianjin13.73(-0.98%)357.3(-5.2%)Baoding9.20(-0.51%)172.2(+1.3%)Population in 2021(Million)28.00,35.00)21.00,28.00)14.00,21.00)7.00,14.00)0.00,7.00)Retail Sales in 2022(Billion RMB)1,200,1,800)900,1,200)600,900)300,600)0,300)YRDShanghaiJiaxingNingboNanjingShaoxingHangzhouNantongHefeiSuzhouWu

15、xiChengyuChengduMeishanChongqingPRDZhaoqingHuizhouDongguanGuangzhouFoshanJiangmenShenzhenZhongshanLegendPopulation Size(Million)and YoY Change Rate in 2021Retail Sales(Billion RMB)and YoY Nominal Change Rate in 2022TIer-1 CitySatellite CityTIer-2 CityTIer-3 City10JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Rea

16、l Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform based on publicly available information02JJJs LogisticsMarket11JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewThe scope of study of this section covers key logistics markets in JJJ,namely Beijing,Tianjin,Langfang and Bao

17、dingTianjin7.87Beijing2.37Langfang1.98Baoding0.29Baoding0.29Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Stock Floor Area(Million sqm)5.00,10.002.00,5.00)1.00,2.00)0.00,1.00)Stock DistributionTianjin Supply Remains High,Langfang and Beijing Facing New SupplyShare of Tianjins stock in regional total63%Tianjins stock

18、 surpassed 7 million sqm,3.3 times of that in Beijing7million sqm3.3Times12JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformOverall Rent Level of JJJ in Q4 Decreased by 1.6%YoY1.25 RMB/sqm/day4 out of 4 key logistics markets in JJJ registered QoQ

19、drop4/4 CitiesRentAll JJJ Markets Registered QoQ Drop in Q413JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformLangfang1.31-5.3%Langfang1.31-5.3%Beijing2.06-0.5%Beijing2.06-0.5%Tianjin0.98-3.2%Tianjin0.98-3.2%Baoding0.93-3.8%Baoding0.93-3.8%Average

20、 Rent(RMB/sqm/day)and QoQ Change,Q4 2022 1.50,2.501.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)OccupancyBeijing,Langfang and Baoding Have Seen Occupancy Drop in Q4Overall occupancy rate of JJJ in Q4 fell by 5.6 pp YoY-5.6pp3 out of 4 key logistics markets in JJJ registered QoQ drop3/4 Cities14JJJ Non-bonded Grade

21、A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformTianjin74.7%+1.7ppTianjin74.7%+1.7ppBaoding76.5%-6.9ppBaoding76.5%-6.9ppLangfang50.9%-10.5ppLangfang50.9%-10.5ppBeijing88.7%-3.3ppBeijing88.7%-3.3ppAverage Occupancy Rate and QoQ Change,Q4 202290.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70

22、.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)Cap rates in all JJJ key markets have seen a slight increase of 4-12 basis points in 2022,mainly due to the rise in risk-free rates and rent drops in these logistics markets.As the core market of JJJ,Beijings cap rate remained below 5%,which is the lowest in the region.With the

23、rising pressure of oversupply in certain parts of the region,cap rates of JJJs key markets may face further adjustment.Cap RatesAll JJJ Cities Increased in Q415JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformTianjin5.34%+11bpTianjin5.34%+11bpBeij

24、ing4.72%+10bpBeijing4.72%+10bpBaoding5.86%+12bpBaoding5.86%+12bpLangfang5.20%+4bpLangfang5.20%+4bpCap Rate and QoQ Change,Q4 20224.50%,5.00%)5.00%,5.25%)5.25%,5.75%)5.75%,6.50%Logistics Market Transactions in 2022Merely a few transaction cases in Chinas en-bloc logistics investment market in 2022 in

25、volved JJJ markets.With the anticipated economic recovery resulting from the relaxation of COVID control measures and the gradual clarification of various uncertainties,investors decision-making processes are bound to accelerate in 2023.However,as the differentiation between different logistics mark

26、ets in China deepens,choosing the right assets that are in accord with their investment strategies will become an important step for investors before making an investment decision.Although most JJJ markets are facing increasing pressures from new supply,Beijing is expected to continue to attract inv

27、estors attention as the best-performing and most resilient logistics market in the region.16JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform based on publicly available informationDateNameLocationNo.of AssetsGFA(sqm)Volume of Transaction(RMB mn)S

28、ellerBuyerCap RateJuly 2022ESR GIC Prime Logistics and Industrial PortfolioDongguan,Wuhan,Changsha,Chongqing,Nanjing,Wuxi,Shenyang,Tianjin9873,000Balance Sheet4,900ESRGIC/ESR JV5.30%-5.80%June 2022SC Capital Morgan Stanley PortfolioNantong,Taicang,Jiaxing3210,770850SC CapitalMorgan Stanley5.30%May 2

29、022Goodman NWS Logistics PortfolioChengdu,Wuhan6531,0002,290GoodmanNWS5.50%-6.00%May 2022Dongbai Link Logistics PortfolioChangshu,Jiaxing3192,144947DongbaiGroupLink5.10%-5.50%March 20222 Logistics Parks of China South CityHefei,Zhengzhou2405,7001,710China South CityShenzhen IntlN/AFebruary 2022DLJ G

30、reater Shanghai Logistics PortfolioShanghai,Suzhou,Kunshan,Taicang,Hangzhou11558,3344,500DLJGIC/ESR JV4.50%February 2022Logistics Asset on 3130 S.Lianhua Rd.,Minhang,ShanghaiShanghai1131,2151,382ElandPing An/DNE5.00%Beijing&Langfang Logistics Sub-markets,Q4 202217JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Rea

31、l Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformLangfangFangshanShunyiDaxingTongzhouPingguAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)2.10,2.501.80,2.10)1.50,1.80)0.00,1.50)Average Occupancy Rate90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)LangfangFangshanShunyiDaxingTongzhouPinggu1.00,2.000.50,1.0

32、0)0.00,0.50)LangfangShunyiTongzhouDaxingFangshanPingguNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)Tianjin Logistics Sub-markets,Q4 2022XiqingDongliJinnanBinhaiWuqingBaodiBeichenNingheAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)1.20,1.501.00,1.20)0.80,1.00)0.00,0.80)18JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overv

33、iewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformBinhaiWuqingBeichenDongliNingheBaodiJinnanXiqingAverage Occupancy Rate90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)XiqingDongliJinnanBinhaiWuqingBaodiBeichenNinghe1.00,2.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)Non-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)Baoding Logistics Sub-m

34、arkets,Q4 2022Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)XushuiZhuozhouNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)1.00,2.000.30,1.00)0.00,0.30)1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)19JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformXushuiZhuozhouAverage Occupancy Rate9

35、0.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)XushuiZhuozhou03Summary&Outlook1 MacroJJJs economic growth has seen notable slowdown in 2022 as a result of unforeseen factors such as COVID surges.COVID restrictions hindered consumption in Beijing and Tianjin,JJJs total retail sales in 2022 dropped by

36、7.1%YoY,while its retail sales in 2022 Q4 has seen major contraction of 21.7%compared with 2021 Q4.The consumer market in JJJ is in urgent need of recovery.JJJs secondary industry value added has seen YoY drop in Q4,and its share in total GDP was significantly lower than that of YRD and PRD3 Leasing

37、 PerformanceJJJ has seen the delivery of over 1.6 million sqm of new supply in 2022,equivalent to 14.7%of the total stock in the region by 2021 Q4.Due to new supply as well as sluggish demand,JJJs overall occupancy rate in 2022 Q4 was down 1.7%compared with the previous quarter and was down 5.6%comp

38、ared with 2021 Q4.All of JJJs 4 key logistics markets recorded a QoQ rent drop in Q4,driving down JJJs overall rent level to 1.25 RMB/sqm/day.2Demand3PLs,automobile/auto parts and retail occupiers dominate JJJs tenant composition.Due to the slowdown in economic growth and the contraction of consumer

39、 market and industrial production resulting from COVID outbreaks,together with COVID restrictions on inter-provincial logistics,JJJs logistics demand has faced downward pressures.As we look ahead to 2023,JJJs logistics demand is bound to gradually resume with the relaxation of COVID restrictions and

40、 the rebound of the consumer market.However,as JJJs overall population attractiveness is not as strong as other key city clusters such as YRD and PRD,JJJs consumption and logistics market may not recover as fast as the abovementioned regions.4InvestmentCap rates in all JJJ key markets have seen a sl

41、ight increase in 2022,mainly due to the rise in risk-free rates and rent drops in these logistics markets.JJJ has seen fewer en-bloc logistics transaction cases compared with YRD in 2022,yet JJJ will remain a key focus area for investors in 2023 as market confidence resumes.As the supply and demand

42、trend of different markets in JJJ varies,differentiation of leasing performances between different markets within JJJ will further intensify.Choosing the right asset will become an increasingly important issue for investors.20JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewScan&subscribe

43、 to stay tunedAbout ZhenliangDeveloped by JLL Valuation team,ZhenLiang Platform based on more than 30 years of real estate valuation practice and over 300 valuers,helping real estate professionals gain insight into the business environment and grasp market opportunities.Our team has experts from var

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48、her party without prior express written permission of Shanghai Jialiang.If need to repost or quote this report,please cite the source and include this statement in its Contact UsAuthorGeorge XiongJones Lang Lasalle Zhenliang Asset Management PlatformSpokespersonJSigrid ZhouJones Lang Lasalle Zhenliang Asset Management PlatformDirector,Head of Zhenliang Research InstituteS