1、 Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.Logistics OutlookJanuary 2024Transportation&Infrastructure2 Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.Build strategy and manage risk through the lens of geopolitics and macroeconomics.Understand the forces s

2、haping the future of your organizationAssess their economic impactSeparate noise from signalFind better optionsA unique global networkWe are a division of Expeditors,one of the worlds foremost supply chain companies.Our core team of global,regional and industry experts is complemented by our extende

3、d network of logistics and supply chain practitioners on the ground in 350 locations in 100+countries globally.Quantifying impact is at the heart of our valueWe believe that geopolitics and macroeconomics can shape any business.But understanding them is only half the story:we combine qualitative ana

4、lysis and proprietary data to quantify impact on your business and produce actionable insights.We focus on what mattersWe fully integrate macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis,unlike any other consulting firm.Our approach is tailored to the issues,geographies and industries you care about.We focus

5、 on getting to the so-what of politics so you dont have to.Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.3Summary of medium-term input cost pressuresInflation rates easing,but price levels set to remain historically highSource:OnyxMACRO&GEOPOLITICAL RISKSOCEAN FREIGHT MARKET DYN

6、AMICSRAW MATERIAL MARKET DYNAMICSOIL/MARINE FUEL MARKET DYNAMICSA regional conflict in the Middle East that affects oil supply could send prices$100/barrelA swing in momentum in Ukraine raises the risk of Russia further weaponizing energy suppliesPotential for a prolonged Chinese slump that reduces

7、energy demand and supply of processed inputsGeopolitical risk is dominating the market,pushing rates higher in Q1-Q2 with potential for sustained higher rates depending largely on events in the Middle EastOtherwise,market fundamentals are neutral to bearish as global merchandise trade will improve b

8、ut will be outpaced by new container capacity“Rockets and feathers”:input costs remain high,unlikely to fall furtherMacro and geopolitical dynamics drive higher-for-longer costs,but unlikely return to extreme cost inflation of 2021-22Commodities tied to the energy transition and construction are mos

9、t vulnerable to upward price pressure in 2024Crude oil prices face risk tug-of-war:downside macro and upside geopolitical risksFuel spreads have reverted as expected,and will normalize further as+1 mmbd new global refinery capacity will ease pressureSourcing decisions must remain cost-conscious Onyx

10、 Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.4Forecast01002003004005006007008009001000020406080100120140Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Brent Crude(left)VLSFO(right)HSFO(

11、right)Steady upward pressure on fuel costsTightening supplies will bring more upside price riskSource:Bloomberg,Energy Information Administration(EIA),OnyxOutlook through 2024Demand:Uncertainty clouds the market Global outlook is soft,with downside risks in Q1-Q2 and potential rebound in H2 2024 Con

12、tinued air travel recovery back to pre-pandemic trend Trade recovery picks up in 2024Supply:Steady growth and excess capacity Resilient US production growth in 2023 OPEC maintains price floor Steady expansion in refining capacity for higher-grade marine fuelsFactors to watch policy and geopolitics T

13、ightening balance in late 2024 increases vulnerability to shocks Geopolitical wildcards IMO and EU regulations on maritime emissions will necessitate a shift to renewable fuelsMarine fuel costs move with crude oil;high-grade premium has narrowedMarine bunker fuel prices(Rotterdam,USD/tonne)and Brent

14、 crude spot price(USD/barrel)Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.5Logistics infrastructure progress stalled in key marketsLogistics performance across the worldSource:World Bank,Onyx614145655556513027262827261939474654354438272929253241265650475054516614159910141720052

15、007200920112013201520172019202120232025United StatesChinaMalaysiaIndiaBrazilMexicoLogistics Performance Index(LPI):Rank out of 139 countries Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.6Growth in Indias port capacity has been sluggishSlow turnaround times and low containerizat

16、ion levelsSource:Onyx;Ministry of Ports,Shipping,and WaterwaysESTIMATES OF CONTAINERIZATION LEVELS(2022)%01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,60020162017201820192020+4%+1%CAPACITY AT MAJOR PORTSMILLION TONNESPort capacityTraffic handledAVERAGE TURNAROUND TIME IN 2021HOURS28354

17、74754Jawaharlal NehruCochinNew MangaloreEnnoreChennai23.5Global median turnaround time254070IndiaDeveloping countriesDeveloped countriesLow containerization levels cause inefficiencies when transitioning between modes of transport and contribute to higher logistics costs Onyx Strategic Insights.Repr

18、oduction by written authorization only.7How do you view the security situation in the country today vs.12 months ago?*Share of respondents,AmCham Mexico 2022 surveyMexico:Deteriorating security impacts transportMost companies think security will continue to worsen*Based on a 2022 survey of C-suite a

19、nd security executives from foreign and domestic businesses operating in MexicoSource:AmCham Mexico Business Security Survey 2022,OnyxHow do you think the countrys security situation will be in the next 12 months?*Share of respondents,AmCham Mexico 2022 survey25%47%19%7%No responseMuch better 1%Bett

20、er 1%SameWorseMuch worseWorse+Much worse:72%Better+Much better:2%16%51%25%5%No responseMuch better 1%Better 2%SameWorseMuch worseWorse+Much worse:67%Better+Much better:3%Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.8Perception:10 states with the greatest challenges regarding bu

21、siness security*AmCham Mexico Business Security SurveyMexico City area and US-Mexico border states see worsening security perceptionsBaja California is no longer viewed among safest states*Based on a 2022 survey of C-suite and security executives from foreign and domestic businesses operating in Mex

22、icoSource:AmCham Mexico,OnyxPerception:10 states with the least challenges regarding business security*AmCham Mexico Business Security SurveyRank201820221TamaulipasEstado de Mxico2Estado de MxicoGuanajuato3Ciudad de MxicoCiudad de Mxico4MichoacnMichoacn5GuerreroJalisco6VeracruzTamaulipas7JaliscoNuev

23、o Len8GuanajuatoPuebla9 SinaloaVeracruz10PueblaChihuahuaRank201820221YucatnHidalgo2QuertaroMorelos3AguascalientesNayarit4CampecheOaxaca5Quintana RooTabasco6Baja CaliforniaQuintana Roo7SonoraTlaxcala8San Luis PotosYucatn9 ChiapasBaja California Sur10TlaxcalaCampeche Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproducti

24、on by written authorization only.9Which are among the greatest concerns in terms of company security?*Share of respondentsCargo transport is among the greatest concernsWith minimal help from authorities,most companies apply security enhancements from within*Based on a 2022 survey of C-suite and secu

25、rity executives from foreign and domestic businesses operating in MexicoSource:AmCham Mexico,Onyx35%36%48%63%64%Information securityTravel protocolsPhysical security offacilitiesSecurity of personneland familiesCargo transportWhich of the following have had an impact on improving company security?*S

26、hare of respondents84%Security enhancements within our company9%Efforts by federal authorities5%Efforts by state authoritiesWhat type of company measures have helped improve security conditions?*Share of respondents95%63%58%58%58%42%42%37%32%32%26%21%Risk analysisSatellite tracking oftransport/goods

27、Physical securityCrisis management plansTraining and securityawarenessTravel protocolsCybersecurityimprovementsCollaboration with otherbusinessesCollaboration withauthoritiesSatellite tracking ofexecutivesExecutive protectionCancellation of operations Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written

28、authorization only.10Vietnams logistics performance middling in ASEANBut Hanoi is investing heavily in its infrastructure to grow capacity3.63.33.30.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0MalaysiaVietnamPhilippines4.12.1WORLD BANK LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX 20231=LOW,5=HIGHTop 10 global average LPI scoreBo

29、ttom 10 global average LPI scoreSource:World Bank,Oxford Economics,Onyx051015202015161718 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30+7%INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT AND STORAGEUSD$B 2015 PRICESForecastMaster Transport Infrastructure Plan(2021 2030)aims to expand port network,scale up national highway system and

30、upgrade existing airports Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.11Customs procedures still a hurdle for businessesBusinesses cite red tape and corruption as issues2020 SURVEY ON BUSINESSES SATISFACTION WITH IMPORT-EXPORT ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES%OF RESPONDENTSSource:Vie

31、tnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry,General Department of Vietnam Customs,Ministry of Finance,USAID,Nikkei Asia9910202381211122217105839555744731935201575303100%Physical inspection of goodsDocument inspectionTax refundComplaint settlementCustoms declarationTax payment221Level of ease in carrying o

32、ut customs proceduresIn a separate survey released in 2023 by Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry:59%of firms face issues with“specialized inspections”,such as checks on product quality30%declined to answer a question on“unofficial fees”Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorizat

33、ion only.12 Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.Get in touchWebsite CLinkedInhttps:/ Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.13Onyx Strategic Insights(Onyx,Onyx SI,We,Our,or Us)is a division of Expeditors International of Washington,Inc.(Expe

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