S&PGlobalCommodityInsights-Wind technology an_Indra Mukherjee.pdf

1、 2024 S&P Global.Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGYWinds of change:Tech and supply chain trendsChina Wind Power 2024Indrayuth Mukherjee/Associate Director/Clean Energy TechnologyOct.1

2、6,2024 2024 S&P Global.2024 S&P Global.TopicsGlobal wind installed capacity footprint and future growth projectionThe evolving competitive landscape of wind turbine supplyEvolution of product development strategies of key wind turbine vendors groupsThe current global wind turbine manufacturing suppl

3、y chain and the way forwardSource:S&P Global Commodity Insights.2024 S&P Global.3S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts the addition of 1 terawatt of new wind capacity worldwide by 2030,with China expected to contribute half of this growthData compiled September 2024.Gross capacity additions have b

4、een shown.The inner donut shows historical capacity additions from 2015 to 2023.The outer donut shows forecast capacity additions from 2024 to 2030.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.50%17%33%51%21%28%ChinaRest of the WorldUS and EuropeOnshore wind additions by geographic segment625 GW(201523)800

5、GW(est.202430)55%3%42%50%10%40%ChinaRest of the WorldUS and EuropeOffshore wind additions by geographic segment66 GW(201523)200 GW(est.202430)2024 S&P Global.4The competitive landscape for wind turbine supply is divided into 2 groups of OEMs based on their geographic focusData compiled September 202

6、4.Goldwind=Goldwind Science and Technology Co.Ltd.;Envision=Envision Energy Ltd.;Ming Yang=Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Ltd.;Windey=Windey Energy Technology Group Co.Ltd.;Sany=Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd.;Dongfang=Dongfang Electric Corp.Ltd.;SE Wind=Shanghai Electric Group Co.Ltd.;CRRC=CRRC Group Co.

7、Ltd.;CSSC=CSSC Science&Technology Co.Ltd.;United Power=GuoDian United Power Technology Co.Ltd.;Sinovel=Sinovel Wind Group Co.Ltd.;Suzlon=Suzlon Energy Ltd.;HE Wind=Harbin Electric Corp.;Vestas=Vestas Wind Systems A/S;Siemens=Siemens Energy AG;GE=GE Vernova Inc.;Nordex=Nordex SE;ENERCON=ENERCON GmbH.

8、*Installation in 2022.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.20 marketsVestasSiemensGE*NordexENERCONGoldwindEnvisionWindeyMingYangSE WindCSSCCRRCDongfangSanyUnited PowerHE WindSinovelSuzlon0510152025303540012345678910111213141516171819Western OEMsChinese OEMsOther RegionalConsolidated wind turbine man

9、ufacturer positioning overview,20232023 installation volume(GW)Number of markets with installations 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.ExcludesTechnology capabilityOnshoreOnshore+Offshore20 markets 2024 S&P Global.5While western OEMs are slowing down the scaling of turbine sizes,Ch

10、inese players are pushing ahead,and rapidly unveiling newer and larger modelsNote:Only includes firm orders.Orders shown include announced new project orders,repowering orders and framework agreements.They exclude MOUs,component orders and project orders part of a previously accounted for framework

11、agreementData compiled September 2024.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.=10 MW51 models60 models52 models18 models19 models8 GW38 GW35 GW1 GW2 GWOnshore wind turbine portfolios and order intake 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.Add notes here.Data compiled Mmm.YYYY.Onshore turb

12、ine modelsOrder intake 2023Western OEMsChinese OEMsOther regional OEMs20 models17 models17 models9 models14 models=16 MW1 GW3 GW3 GW7 GW0.17 GWOffshore wind turbine portfolios and order intake 2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.Add notes here.Data compiled Mmm.YYYY.Offshore turbine

13、 modelsOrder intake 2023Western OEMsChinese OEMsOther Regional OEMs 2024 S&P Global.6Average turbine selling prices of Chinese and non-Chinese vendors have continued to diverge,boosting Chinese exportsNote:Only includes firm orders.Orders shown include announced new project orders,repowering orders

14、and framework agreements.They exclude MOUs,component orders and project orders part of a previously accounted for framework agreementData compiled July 2024.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.0.000.200.400.600.801.001.2020192020202120222023Q1-2024Q2-2024Western OEMChinese OEMsAverage selling price

15、 of onshore wind turbines,2019 to Q2 2024(nominal$per watt)2023 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insights.Average domestic bid prices for Chinese turbine makers used as a proxy for ASP.For western OEMs,a blended ASP of Vestas,Nordex,and Siemens Energy have been taken.Data compiled August.2023.

16、Significant divergence between Western OEM ASP and average bid price for China projects by local OEMs 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01234567892018201920202021202220232023H1 2024Export volume by Chinese OEMs(GW)Export as%of China wind installationsExport as%of RoW wind installationsChina turbine e

17、xport volumes v/s additionsFirm Orders 2024 S&P Global.7The global wind turbine manufacturing footprint is fragmented,with various markets striving to preserve and expand their localized supply chains 2024 S&P Global.2024 S&P Global.8Key conclusions The globally installed wind capacity is expected t

18、o double by 2030,with key markets including China,Europe,and the US driving over 80%of this growth.Larger turbines have driven cost reductions,but theres a growing need to balance continuous innovation with technology robustness and reliability.A widening price gap between Western and Chinese turbin

19、e makers has enabled the latter to start expanding their global footprint.While many markets aim to strengthen local wind supply chains including through policy,doubling the global wind installed capacity by 2030 will require balancing local and global supply chains.Source:S&P Global Commodity Insig

20、hts.2024 S&P Global.2024 S&P Global.9Contact us 2024 S&P Global.PRIMARY CONTACT(S)Indrayuth MukherjeeIndra.M CONTACT USAmericas+1 800 597 1344Asia-Pacific+60 4 296 1125Europe,Middle East,Africa+44(0)203 367 2024 by S&P Global Inc.All rights reserved.S&P Global,the S&P Global logo,S&P Global Commodit

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