1、?德?2025?德?1?2025?2024?12?31?l?分?缺?COMEX?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?德?農?哈?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?分?.?%?.?%?l?熱?德?受?點?分?組?分?德?危?決?德?續?續?忽?l?德?德?德?組?組?全?德?沖?勁?納?組?德德?勁?德?忽?德?l?組?.?忽?點?組?.?類?組?忽?緒缺?忽?l?分?危?忽?德?續?組?續?忽?德?A?續?粘?l?德?德?(?010-8092-7696*?yangchao_?S?2024-12-19?12?2024-12-13?2024-12-09?12?2024-11-20?2024-11

2、-19?2025:?2024-11-13?A?2024-11-08?2024-11-08?組?熱?2024-11-06?2024-11-03?A?2024?A?2024-10-30?組?vs?2024-10-28?Q?2024-10-28?2024-10-23?德?2?Catalog?分?.?.?.?.?.?.?德?德?.?點?德?.?德?.?續?續?.?.?.?.?克德?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?分?.?.?德?3?2024?分?缺?全?忽?德?點?忽?忽?組?忽?續?續?德?1?11?30?2024?全?分?%?1?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?2024?11?

3、30?NYMEX?-15.12-12.00-5.81 11.00 29.63 0.54-21.53 5.40 36.81-7.66 24.42 33.97 COMEX?-4.26-1.25 9.68 6.64 14.64-3.30-1.35 1.06 7.83 4.27-5.17 29.12 COMEX?-0.68-0.71 9.74 2.63 1.95-0.38 6.57 2.55 5.10 3.56-2.74 29.06?1.02 6.12 1.79-4.41 6.88 5.96-0.75 0.65 2.68-0.52 6.21 28.02?500 1.59 5.17 3.10-4.16

4、4.80 3.47 1.13 2.28 2.02-0.99 5.73 26.47?1.22 2.22 2.08-5.00 2.30 1.12 4.41 1.76 1.85-1.34 7.54 19.16?-16.81 14.85 0.62 2.21-2.87-6.74 0.28-6.38 37.62-0.49 2.75 17.59?德 DAX 0.91 4.58 4.61-3.03 3.16-1.42 1.50 2.15 2.21-1.28 2.88 17.16 LME?-4.89-4.11 0.56 19.23 2.02-0.96-8.15 8.37 6.23-1.73 2.62 16.95

5、?-2.69-0.35 2.62 2.13 1.33-0.11 3.69-0.38 4.13-0.74 5.07 15.40?225 8.43 7.94 3.07-4.86 0.21 2.85-1.22-1.16-1.88 3.06-2.23 14.18?-9.16 6.63 0.18 7.39 1.78-2.00-2.11 3.72 17.48-3.86-4.40 13.94?-6.27 8.13 0.86 2.09-0.58-3.87-0.97-3.28 17.39-1.70 1.42 11.82?-13.77 13.61 0.75 1.98-2.32-5.51-1.07-4.63 26.

6、13 0.58 0.19 11.41?3.04 7.59 2.50-5.81 4.32-1.30 0.50 2.59 0.32-1.82-1.11 10.67?SENSEX30-0.68 1.04 1.59 1.13-0.70 6.86 3.43 0.76 2.35-5.83 0.52 10.47 LME?-4.15-2.41 4.80 10.46 2.45-5.09-8.30 6.79 6.46 0.56-0.71 9.02 10?德德?1.35 8.58-1.43 11.32-3.82-2.02-8.17-3.07-3.12 13.12-2.50 8.04?3.65 2.46 0.01 4

7、.27 1.18 1.23-5.89-1.83-2.46 4.90 0.08 7.47?德?100-1.33-0.01 4.23 2.41 1.61-1.34 2.50 0.10-1.67-1.54 2.18 7.16 10?德?1.30 0.87 0.41 0.11 0.21 1.01 0.87-0.08 0.19 0.34 1.17 6.58 LME?0.66-1.51 4.46 12.51 0.78-4.52-3.74 0.29 6.82-2.87-5.17 5.33?STOXX 1.84 3.20 4.39-2.45 1.74-2.85 0.46 1.48 0.96-3.30-0.08

8、 5.20?2.12 0.59 0.36 1.75-1.60 1.16-1.69-2.23-0.96 3.11 1.81 4.34?0.96 0.28 0.45 0.28 0.02 0.35-0.65-1.81-1.01 1.43 1.74 2.01?-0.73-0.43-1.11-0.01 1.76 0.00 1.46 2.31 1.20-3.75-1.14-1.03?德 CAC40 1.51 3.54 3.51-2.69 0.10-6.42 0.70 1.32 0.06-3.74-1.57-4.08?-1.98-0.12-0.13-1.16 1.71-1.24 1.05 2.04 0.80

9、-2.25-2.81-4.16 NYMEX WTI?5.86 3.23 6.20-1.95-5.80 5.81-3.56-5.47-7.15 3.46-1.60-4.88 ICE?4.74 1.82 6.30-1.24-5.75 4.60-4.11-4.69-6.41 3.29-0.99-6.43 CBOT?-4.93-4.07 2.97 1.19-0.22-5.55-4.93 0.44 5.74-3.18 5.48-8.06 CBOT?-5.14-3.15-2.56 7.85 12.68-15.22-8.06 4.69 5.80-2.05-3.68-12.50 SHFE?-3.28-2.75

10、-10.09 6.03 0.98-4.60-5.97-2.92 9.50-1.27-3.38-17.05 DCE?-1.34-8.18-16.57 16.77-0.92-4.79-6.28-1.50 8.59-2.62 1.98-18.08 CBOT?-5.84-6.77 4.49-2.43 3.61-8.26-7.29-2.30 5.68-5.72-0.38-23.67?Wind?德?4?續?COMEX?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?%?哈?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?分?DCE?.?%?CBOT?.?%?分?德?忽?全?忽?點?分?受?點?+?分?危?危?點?德忽 LNG?意

11、?緒?危?1?COMEX?2?WTI?NYMEX?Wind?Wind?LME?忽?危?危?緒?LME?德?-?德?德-?LME?危?危?分?分?分?20253035401500180021002400270030002024-01-022024-02-022024-03-022024-04-022024-05-022024-06-022024-07-022024-08-022024-09-022024-10-022024-11-02?(?):COMEX?(?):COMEX?/?/?0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.050607080902024-01-022024-02-02202

12、4-03-022024-04-022024-05-022024-06-022024-07-022024-08-022024-09-022024-10-022024-11-02?(?):WTI?(?):NYMEX?/?/?德?5?危?忽?分?點?克?-?危?分?3?LME?4?Wind?Wind?分?緒?德?危?全分?分?緒缺危?危點?缺德?德?分?點?危?忽?危?德?缺?5?CBOT?6?CBOT?Wind?Wind?2000250030003500660076008600960010600116002024-01-022024-02-022024-03-022024-04-022024-05

13、-022024-06-022024-07-022024-08-022024-09-022024-10-022024-11-02?:LME?:LME?:LME?/?/?24002900340039004400300500700900110013002024-01-022024-02-022024-03-022024-04-022024-05-022024-06-022024-07-022024-08-022024-09-022024-10-022024-11-02?(?):?(?):?/?/?80090010001100120013003003504004505002024-01-022024-

14、02-022024-03-022024-04-022024-05-022024-06-022024-07-022024-08-022024-09-022024-10-022024-11-02?(?):CBOT?(?):CBOT?/?/?8101214161820224004505005506006507007502024-01-022024-02-022024-03-022024-04-022024-05-022024-06-022024-07-022024-08-022024-09-022024-10-022024-11-02?(?):CBOT?(?):CBOT?/?/?德?6?德?德?德?

15、德?德?點?忽?德?組?點?德?類?德?類?德?點?德?勁?勁?點?類?點?7?德 10?2?德?8?德 10?2?德?Wind?Wind?點?潛?德?點?CPI 性?德?續?德?組?德?組?續?續?緒?德?點?2.53.03.54.04.55.05.52.53.03.54.04.55.05.52023-12-312024-01-312024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-31?德:德?:10?德:德?:2?%?%?1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22

16、.41.01.52.02.53.02023-12-312024-01-312024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-31?德?:10?德?:2?%?%?德?7?9?10?Wind?Wind?點?缺?組?組?11?2024?德?12?2024?續?全?Wind?Wind?續?續?忽?缺?忽?續?續?危?1.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.1496981001021041061081102024-01-012024-02-012024-03-

17、012024-04-012024-05-012024-06-012024-07-012024-08-012024-09-012024-10-012024-11-01?1973?3?=100?13013514014515015516016596981001021041061081102024-01-012024-02-012024-03-012024-04-012024-05-012024-06-012024-07-012024-08-012024-09-012024-10-012024-11-01?1973?3?=100?-100102030402023-12-292024-01-292024

18、-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-31?500?%?-10-50510152025302023-12-292024-01-292024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-31?225?SENSEX30?%?德?8?忽?緒?忽?潛?德?忽?缺?德 GDP?點?.?%?.?%?全?.?%?缺?全?缺?納?.?%?.?%?納?農?缺?德?

19、點?13?德 GDP?14?德 GDP?全?Wind?Wind?德?PMI?.?%?.?.?%?缺?分?.?%?.?%?德?PMI?%?.?%?.?%?納?全?.?%?.?%?.?%?危?.?%?缺?德?PMI?忽?德?PMI?0500100015002000250017000190002100023000250002022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09?德:GDP:?:?:?德:GDP:?:?:?(?)?德:GDP:?:?:?-?(?)(?)-2.0-1.00.01.02.03

20、.04.05.02023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3GDP?:?:?GDP?:德?:?GDP?:?:?GDP?:?:?德:GDP:?:?:?(%)?德?9?15?德 ISM?PMI?全?16?德 ISM?PMI?全?Wind?Wind?德?.?%?全?.?全?納?全?忽?受哈?納?全?納?德?.?%?.?%?缺?全?沖?點?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?德?點?17?德?全?GDP?18?德?納?Wind?Wind?德?.?.?缺?全?沖?熱?沖?緒缺?熱?%?緒缺?缺?.?%?.?%?德?點?.?%?.?%?缺?30405060?PMI?分?

21、2024-112024-10?%?30405060?PMI?2024-112024-10?%?-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.02023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3?德:GDP?:?:?:?德:GDP?:?:?:?德:GDP?:?:納?:?德:GDP?:?:?:?德:GDP?:?:?(%)-20-100102030-40-2002040602020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-0

22、52024-09?德:?納?:?:?:?德:?納?:?:?:?%?%?德?10?德?分?受?忽?內?%?%?沖?缺?19?德?20?德?Wind?Wind?德?.?%?缺?缺?全?忽?沖?忽?.?熱?熱?危?.?德?.?缺?全?忽?換?.?%?.?%?.?%?性?農?危?克?性?換?農?21?德?22?德?換?Wind?Wind?4060801001201402015-052015-122016-072017-022017-092018-042018-112019-062020-012020-082021-032021-102022-052022-122023-072024-022024-09

23、?德:?德:?德:?1966?2?=100?-30-20-10010203002004006008002015-022015-102016-062017-022017-102018-062019-022019-102020-062021-022021-102022-062023-022023-102024-06?德:?:?:?德:?:?:?:?%?-20-1001020300500100015002015-052016-012016-092017-052018-012018-092019-052020-012020-092021-052022-012022-092023-052024-0120

24、24-09?德:?:?:?德:?:?:?:?%?3.03.43.84.24.65.05.45.86.26.67.00204060801002021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052024-082024-11?德:?:?:?德:?:?(?)?%?德?11?熱?德?換?.?.?缺?.?農?忽?23?德?換?換?24?德 CPI?CPI?Wind?Wind?德 CPI?.?%?.?%?全?.?%?.?%?.?%?CPI?.?%?續?.?%?.?%?德?PPI?

25、.?%?.?.?%?.?%?分?.?%?.?%?性?25?德 PPI?PPI?26?德 PCE?PCE?Wind?Wind?德?PCE?.?%?.?%?.?%?性?PCE?.?%?農?.?%?.?%?缺?內?納?.?%?缺?性?.?%?PCE?忽?緒缺?120140160180200141924292022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-10?德:熱?:?德:?:?-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0-1

26、.01.03.05.07.09.011.02020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?德:CPI:?:?德:?CPI:?:?德:CPI:?:?德:?CPI:?:?(%)(%)-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.09.011.013.015.02020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012

27、023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?德:PPI:?:?:?德:?PPI:?:?:?德:PPI:?:?:?德:?PPI:?:?:?(%)(%)-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.09.011.013.015.02020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?德:PCE:?德:?PCE:?德:PCE:?德:?PCE:?(%)(%)?德?12?.?%?.?

28、%?.?%?.?%?忽?忽?受?忽?.?%-?.?%?點?緒缺?忽?緒?忽?受?忽?農?勁?缺?忽?27?FOMC?勁?點?忽?缺?忽?忽?受?Longer Run?忽?忽?%?受?024681012141984-031985-091987-031988-091990-031991-091993-031994-091996-031997-091999-032000-092002-032003-092005-032006-092008-032009-092011-032012-092014-032015-092017-032018-092020-032021-092023-032024-09?德

29、:?(%)?德?13?28?2024?12?29?2024?9?FOMC?FOMC?受?農?受?緒缺?GDP?.?%?.?%?續?換?.?%?.?%?哈?換?PCE?PCE?性?PCE?.?%?.?%?忽?PCE?農?.?%?.?%?忽?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?2?12?勁?緒缺?(%)2024 2025 2026 2027?GDP?12?2.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 9?2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8?12?4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 9?4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 PCE?12?2.4 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 9?2.3 2.1 2

30、.0 2.0 2.0?PCE?12?2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0-9?2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0-?12?4.4 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 9?4.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.9?FOMC?德?14?熱?德?受?性?危?分?忽?忽納?組?類?類?缺?緒缺?勁?緒缺?忽?勁?GDP?.?%?.?%?忽全?熟德GDP?.?%?德 GDP?.?%?GDP?.?%?GDP?哈?德?意?納?PMI?.?%?%?納?PMI?.?%?農?納?忽?PMI?.?%?.?%?%?忽?潛?納?全?30?全?德?GDP?31?納?PMI?Wind?Wind?熟德 IFO?.?缺?缺?IFO?.?.?熟

31、德?緒缺?IFO 熱?.?.?熱?熟德?忽?意?緒缺?熟德?GfK?-?.?-?.?-?.?忽?熟德?續?-1.00.01.02.03.04.02021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09?:GDP:?:?:?德:GDP:?:?:?德:GDP:?:?:?:GDP:?:?:?:GDP:?:?:?%?30405060702020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-0920

32、23-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?:?PMI?:納?PMI?:?PMI?%?德?15?忽?缺?緒缺?32?熟德 IFO?33?熟德 GFK?Wind?Wind?德?換?受?忽?.?%?換?點?換?.?換?忽?%?缺?忽?換?.?%?熟德換?.?%?34?20 德換?35?HICP?HICP?Wind?Wind?HICP?.?%?.?%?.?%?HICP?受?忽?.?%?缺?勁?全?.?%?.?%?.?%?忽?受607080901001101202020-01-312020-05-312020-09-302021-01-312021-05-3120

33、21-09-302022-01-312022-05-312022-09-302023-01-312023-05-312023-09-302024-01-312024-05-312024-09-30?德:IFO?:?德:IFO?:?德:IFO?:?2015?-100?-50-40-30-20-10010202020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-112024-032024-072024-11?德:GFK?5.06.07.08.09.02020-092020-122021-0

34、32021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09?20德:?:?%?-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.5-5.00.05.010.015.02020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?:HICP:?:?HICP:?:HICP:?:?HICP:?%?%?德?16?忽?熟忽?勁?

35、熟點?受?忽?忽?%?緒缺?忽?點?勁?點?緒缺?36?Wind?組?類?組?忽?點?分?意?忽?德?決危?忽?分?危?續?分?忽?續?忽?勁?忽?德 GDP?.?%?.?%?農?.?%?全?納?哈?納?.?%?.?%?分?.?%?-1012345671999-012000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-0

36、12024-01?:?:?:?%?德?17?性?續?全?德?37?德 GDP?38?德 GDP?3?GDP?Wind?Wind?德?PMI?.?%?分?克?納?PMI?.?%?納?分?意?納?PMI 受?忽?.?%?德?忽?潛?德?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?忽?德?39?德?納?PMI?40?德?Wind?Wind?-0.90-0.400.100.601.102023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09?德:GDP:?:?:?德:GDP?:?:?%?-2.0-1.00.01.02.02022-012022-032022-052022-

37、072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-072024-09?德:GDP?:GDP?德:GDP?:3?GDP?%?4045505560652022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-072024-092024-11?德:?PMI?德:納?PMI?德:?PMI?%?-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0

38、-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.02023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-10?德:?(?):?:?:?德:?(?):?:?:?（%）?%?德?18?德?ILO 換?受?性?.?%?德?忽?受?換?德?41?德 ILO 換?42?德 CPI?CPI?Wind?Wind?德?CPI?.?%?缺?全?納?納?受?忽?.?%?.?%?.?%?德?忽?續?.?%?德?忽?.?%?忽?勁?.?%?德?忽?德?CPI?.?%?忽?43?德?Wind?2.02.53.03.54.04.

39、55.05.52019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-012024-06?德:ILO?:16?:?性:?%?-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0-20246810122020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?德:CPI:?德:?CPI:?德:CPI:?德:?CPI:?%?%?024681

40、0121416181975-011977-011979-011981-011983-011985-011987-011989-011991-011993-011995-011997-011999-012001-012003-012005-012007-012009-012011-012013-012015-012017-012019-012021-012023-01?德:?%?德?19?組?受?全?德?德?忽?德?勁?熱?德?.?%?.?%?德?忽?續 GDP?續?續?GDP?.?%?全?續?續?分?.?%?.?%?GDP 忽?農?續?44?續 GDP?45?續?納?PMI?Wind?Wind

41、?續?忽納?續?.?.?納?PMI?.?.?納?納?點?續?PMI?.?.?缺?納?缺?分?續?德?.?%?.?%?.?克?缺?全?忽?.?%?.?%?.?缺?全?缺?續?續?-2.00.02.04.06.0?:GDP:?:?:?納?納?2024-092024-06?%?40455055602020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-10?續:?PMI?續:納?PMI?續:?PMI?%?德?20?46?續?

42、熱?47?續 CPI?CPI?Wind?Wind?續?德?CPI?.?%?.?%?續?勁?忽?忽?續?忽?CPI?.?%?CPI?.?%?性?48?續?CPI?CPI?49?續?分?Wind?Wind?續?忽?勁?忽?.?%?潛?缺?續?:?續?.?%?續?忽?忽?勁?德?預?續?-4000-3000-2000-100001000-40000-30000-20000-10000010000200002021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?續:?:熱?續:?:?(?)

43、?%?-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.02020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-09?:CPI:?:?CPI:?:CPI:?:?CPI:?%?%?-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5-202462020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01

44、2024-052024-09?:?:CPI:?:?:?CPI:?:?:?CPI:?:?:CPI:?%?%?-2.0-1.00.01.02.0-10-50510152015-012015-092016-052017-012017-092018-052019-012019-092020-052021-012021-092022-052023-012023-092024-05?續:?分?:?續:?分?:?%?%?德?21?50?續?Wind?續?勁?續?續?類?組?續?勁?分?分?續?緒?續?忽?續?續?勁忽?GDP?.?%?.?%?農?.?%?忽?全?全?分?危?納?分?分?受?分?點?分?.?%

45、?.?%?.?%?全?迪?分?分?分?.?%?迪?分?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?忽?分?.?%?分?受?哈?忽?分?-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.61998-091999-092000-092001-092002-092003-092004-092005-092006-092007-092008-092009-092010-092011-092012-092013-092014-092015-092016-092017-092018-092019-092020-092021-092022-092023-092024-09?續:?(?)?%?德?22?51

46、?GDP?52?分?Wind?Wind?換?.?%?.?%?換?忽?換?.?%?.?%?換?.?%?.?%?換?換?換?.?%?.?%?類?忽熱?克?53?換?54?CPI?Wind?Wind?缺?緒?忽?.?缺?全?德?德?-10-505102023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09?:GDP:?:?:GDP:?:?%?-10-505101520252022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-

47、07-012023-09-012023-11-012024-01-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-01?:?分?:?:?:?:?分?:?:?%?02468101214162021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09?:?:?:?:?:?:?(%)-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.00.02.04.06.08.010.02020-01-312020-05-312020-09-

48、302021-01-312021-05-312021-09-302022-01-312022-05-312022-09-302023-01-312023-05-312023-09-302024-01-312024-05-312024-09-30?:CPI:?:CPI:?%?%?德?23?55?56?Wind?Wind?德?Merrill Lynch?忽?德?分?缺?分?分?勁?潛?GDP?CPI?忽?受?分?-1000-500050010002022-01-012022-04-012022-07-012022-10-012023-01-012023-04-012023-07-012023-10

49、-012024-01-012024-04-012024-07-012024-10-01?-1000-5000500100015002024-01-012024-02-012024-03-012024-04-012024-05-012024-06-012024-07-012024-08-012024-09-012024-10-012024-11-01?德?24?57?58?德?Wind?分?缺?忽?緒?全?分?熱?忽?換?德?忽?德?缺?德?忽?全?忽?分?分?分?勁?忽?分?勁?分?分?缺?農勁?受?受?分?農?受?農?-30-20-100102030405060-2-101234567201

50、1-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01CPI:熱?:熱?(%)(%)?德?25?3?分?M?/M?分?GDP/?PPI?CPI?德?PP?德?CPI?M?/M?GDP/?PPI?CPI?缺?M?M?性?GDP?性?德?德?分?德?PPI?德?CPI?克德?59?德?2000.1-2024.11?60?德?2000.1-2024.11?Wind?Wind?德?德?德?組?組?全?德?沖?勁?納?組?德德?勁?德?忽?德?0%20%40%60%80

51、%100%2004-062006-062008-062010-062012-062014-062016-062018-062020-062022-062024-06?0%20%40%60%80%100%2000-012002-012004-012006-012008-012010-012012-012014-012016-012018-012020-012022-012024-01?德?26?61?忽?2025?.?.?.?德?組?熱?德?組?德?勁?德?組?2.0?1.0?組?全?點?分?組?全?忽?勁?類?全?缺?組?德?全?德?續?4?組?2.0?全?1.0?組?2.0?組?1.0?20

52、25-2034?德?1.7?2025?7.1%2017-2020?德?0.67?3.13?3.39%?14.67%?21%?15%?35%?21%?分?分?勁受?類?2025?勁?德?DACA?2018?緒?德?德?27?德?分?分?勁全?硬?德?德?301?分?25%?10%?10%?德?分?60%?德?德?德?德?2024?.?.?德?德勁?克?受?德勁?德勁?德勁?德勁?德勁?全?忽?忽德勁克?組?忽?意?組?忽?忽?續?德?續?組?類?5?德?Roberts,John G.,Jr.?受?2005?9?29?Maryland Bush,G.W.Thomas,Clarence?受?1991

53、?10?23?Georgia Bush,G.H.W.Alito,Samuel A.,Jr.?受?2006?1?31?New Jersey Bush,G.W.Sotomayor,Sonia?2009?8?8?New York Obama Kagan,Elena?2010?8?7?Massachusetts Obama Gorsuch,Neil M.?受?2017?4?10?Colorado Trump Kavanaugh,Brett M.?受?2018?10?6?Maryland Trump Barrett,Amy Coney?受?2020?10?27?Indiana Trump Jackson

54、,Ketanji Brown?2022?6?30?Washington,D.C.Biden?勁?全?受?德?德?勁全?組?.?組?.?預?點?德?分?組?德?28?組?德?MAGA?農?全?組?.?忽德勁?組?組?組?缺?全?全?全?德?點?德?組?忽?忽?忽?意?熟?組?全?忽?6?組?2.0?全?1962?全?全?2015?Key Square Group?J.D.?組?11?24?3-3-3?2028?GDP?3%?3%?GDP?分 300?全?全?全?點?預?全?1976?組?全?墻?組?德勁?組?決?德?2025?180?全?全?受?德?德?威 53?組?組?組?德?點?點?克?全?

55、全?墻?德?德?2019?全?2019?受?德?2023?點?(2023)?德?(2023)?全?德?50?德勁?德?德?德?德?點?德?德?分?呈?德?分?德?分?德?德?全?組?克?組?組?組?2024?組?點?挖?受?德?德?德?29?熟?63?1983?危?納?CEO?組?點?德?紹?德?德?全?德?勁?點?點?組?德?德?德?類?USMCA?NAFTA?德勁?德?德?德?德?受?德?分分?分?德?分?德勁?受?德?德?德?德勁?德?德?德勁?SpaceX?CEO?X?Twitter?OpenAI?意?全?2?全?德?CNN?組?分?缺?組?勁?缺?組?德?德?德?德?續?點?點?德?

56、勁?缺?德?德?分?分?全?忽?危?缺?勁?.?組?2.0?全?德?德?德?德?%?德?分?德?德?德?德?30?組?.?組?忽?德?全?性?克?德?分?.?組?德?德?德?分?公?德?類?組?缺?德全?德?%?德?性?%?7?組?1.0?德?2018?6?500?25%?德?德?500?25%?2018?7?340?25%?2018?8?160?25%?2018?9?2000?10%?2019?5?10%?25%?2019?9?1200?15%?納?2020?2?15%?7.5%?德?缺?德續?德?%?勁?農勁?德?然?德?忽?德?德?分?性?.?%?.?%?德?德?分?.?%?.?%?.?

57、%?德?德?-?.?熱?德?德?分?性?%?德?德?受?-?.?德?%?德?德?分?.?%?缺?.?%?德?德?.?%?缺?德?-?DID?-?德?德?-?.?%?-?%?-?.?德?德?%?熱?%?勁?德?德?.?%?熱?%?%?德?忽?.?%-?.?%?缺?組?%?%?忽?德?德?.?%?德?德?分?性?.?%?.?%?.?%?%?-?.?德?德?分?農?%?德?受?缺?德?德?分?%?.?%?.?%?德?31?62?2017-2023?德?德?63?2018?2019?2023?德?德?Wind?Wind?德?勁?忽?德?危?勁?德?分?德?德?忽?德?分?分?農?德?換?64?2019

58、?德?65?2017-2023?德?GDP?Wind?Wind?缺?-?德?缺?缺?A?.?性?.?%?德?GDP?性?A?A?%?.?02,0004,0006,0002017201820192020202120222023?分?(?)?(?)-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%?德:?分?(?)?201820192023(?2017?)0102030405060700501001502002503003504002017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021

59、-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-072024-012024-07?(?):?:熱?(?):?德:熱?(?)(?)0246810-101234562017201820192020202120222023?GDP?:?GDP?:?續?GDP?:?納?GDP:?(%)(%)?德?32?66?2010-2023?A?67?2010-2023?A?iFinD?iFinD?勁?德?忽?德?勁?缺?忽?缺?德?德?德?德?忽?缺?分?忽?德?德?德?續?德?全?勁?忽?8?2024?1-6?德?全?德?德?(?)?121,298.4 6.9%100.00%?17,76

60、5.4 0.5%14.65%?德 17,140.4 4.7%14.13%?德?20,277.6 14.2%16.72%?續 5,264.5 -3.4%4.34%?德?9,701.7 14.2%8.00%?德 5,169.5 -0.6%4.26%?德?2,558.2 15.2%2.11%?2,428.2 -2.0%2.00%?3,668.1 1.8%3.02%?4,068.2 4.9%3.35%?德 2,644.8 4.5%2.18%?1,598.2 6.4%1.32%?264.8 5.6%0.22%?9,358.9 14.7%7.72%?6,028.7 0.8%4.97%?缺?德?續?勁?德?

61、德?續?緒?德?德?01020304050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,0002010?2011?2012?2013?2014?2015?2016?2017?2018?2019?2020?2021?2022?2023?A?A?(?)(%)57911132010?2011?2012?2013?2014?2015?2016?2017?2018?2019?2020?2021?2022?2023?(%)?德?33 德?德?忽?類勁?德?續?分?.?德?組?德忽?意?點?類?德?意?德?意?意?9?組?1.0?組?1.0?2017?4?2018?3?德?USTR?2017?3

62、01?德?德?301?德?德?5G?裝?2018?2019?德?德?類?5500?500?意?組?2018?2019?德?組?類?2019?5?德?危?2020?8?組?TikTok?德?德?組?德?德?類?意?德?2019?5?組?13873?點?德?德?危?德?分?納?德?2020?11?組?13959?德全?德?德?德?點?類?德 35?德?2020?12?德?德?德?潛?德?2018?德?德?德?危?德?點?全?分?農?德?意?全?德?分?分?缺忽?G?意?緒缺?德農?類?分?2024?7?勁?德?勁全?德?哈?分?分?分?點?裝?點?意?危?緒缺分?分?分?哈?分?德農?分?全?.?

63、德?34?分?克?緒?忽?忽?忽?點?忽?分?分?缺?忽?分?分?勁?續?缺?熱?A?缺?農?忽?德?分?勁?農勁?點?德?分?勁?全?德?忽?緒缺?忽?勁?危?缺?勁?德?德?德?德?續?農?熱?德?勁?德?德?德?全?德?德?點?68?德?69?2019?全?iFinD?iFinD?02468-40-200204060802000-012001-082003-032004-102006-052007-122009-072011-022012-092014-042015-112017-062019-012020-082022-032023-10?德?(?):?德:德?:10?(%)(%)01

64、234562010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01?德:德?:10?德:德?:10?(%)?德?35?德?續?全?德?點?點?德?受?分?分?危?分?勁?忽?危?缺?忽?全?德?換?10?1995?缺?分?性?1995?7?2001?1?2007?9?2019?8?-?1998?11?2003?6?2008?12?2020?3?.?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?CPI?.?%?.?%?.?%?

65、.?%?德?分?500?.?%-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%?.?%?.?%-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%?-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%?.?%-?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?WTI?-?.?%?.?%-?.?%-?.?%-?.?%?-?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?.?%?Wind?.?換?全?忽?勁?克?熱?續?農?勁?換?熱換?勁?缺?換?缺?缺?德?換?.?%?%?CPI?德?36?.?%?CPI?全?缺?分?克?性?點?組?缺?全?換?點?粘?熱?忽?組?熱?分?缺?.?.?%?忽?70?德?CPI?換?71?德?Wind?Wind?.?續?忽?

66、缺?克?缺?換?德?忽?續?德?分?忽?忽?忽?忽?續?續?德?續?%?.?%?忽?%?類?全?續?忽?全?-?克德?德?忽?%?%?缺?3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.02021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-10?德:?CPI:?:?德:CPI:?:?:?德:?:?(%)(%)2.03.04.05.06.07.02018-012018-06

67、2018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-062023-112024-042024-09?德:?:?:1?德:?:?:5?德:?:?:?:1?德:?:?:?:3?(%)?德?37?續?分?缺?德?續?續?分?沖?續?72?73?2014?缺?Wind?Wind?德?缺?續?克?忽?續?德?換?分?全?.?忽?缺?忽?全?德?勁?CFTC?CFTC?勁?德?BIS?熱?德?續?危?續?續?忽?續德?缺?分?分?忽?意?勁?024681990199219941996199820

68、0020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022?續:?德:?(%)901101301501700.01.02.03.04.05.02014-122015-122016-122017-122018-122019-122020-122021-122022-122023-122024-12?10?德?(%)?德?38?11?德?勁?CFTC?BIS?續?續?續?續?續德?分?分?CETC?BIS?德?BIS?潛?續?IMF?續忽?.?缺?.?續?勁?熱?內?缺?74?續?75?BIS?Wind?續?熱?缺?續?忽?續?續?分?缺?克?續?克?續?續?分?

69、續?忽?分?%?%?續?4060801001201401602007-032008-032009-032010-032011-032012-032013-032014-032015-032016-032017-032018-032019-032020-032021-032022-032023-03?續?(?)-40,000-20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000-100,000-50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,00020102012201420162018202020222024CME:?:?CME:?:?(?)(?)?德?3

70、9?忽?忽?.?%?缺?.?%?76?忽?Wind?.?缺?忽?-?-?-?-?性?續?-?全?缺?危?點?忽?-?忽?克?VIX?忽?-?-?續?忽?類 YCC?德?德?VIX?克?續?-?.?%-?.?%?克?沖?30354045505560657002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023?分?續?續?(?)(%)?德?40?77?德?Wind?78?

71、VIX?Wind?缺?續?%-?.?%?.?%?續?德?續?忽?忽?.?%?續?忽?緒缺?續?70901101301501701902100.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01?2?德?(%)0102030405060708090100-2

72、50,000.0-200,000.0-150,000.0-100,000.0-50,000.00.050,000.0100,000.02000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01?VIX?(?)?德?41?79?2024?德?80?2024?VIX?Wind?Wind?忽?/?組?德?危?忽?

73、德?忽?危?沖?缺?德?忽?%?%?德?危?81?德?德?82?全?Wind?Wind?1401451501551601653.03.54.04.55.02024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-12?2?德?(%)10152025303540-250,000.0-200,000.0-150,000.0-100,000.0-50,000.00.050,000.0100,000.02024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-0

74、72024-082024-092024-102024-112024-12?VIX?(?)1900210023002500270029001.01.52.02.53.02023-12-292024-01-292024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-312024-11-30?德?德?:10?/?%?-1000100200300-1001020302024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024

75、-11?德?德?德?德?德?德?42?83?VIX?COMEX?84?Wind?Wind?忽?/?危?+德?分?德?農?危?危?危?受?緒缺克?危?缺?全?危?忽?德?德?危?85?+19?分?德分?危?86?分?Wind?Wind?190021002300250027002900101520253035402023-12-292024-01-292024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-312024-11-30?500?(VIX)?(?):COMEX?/?01

76、002003004002023-12-292024-01-292024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-312024-11-30?1985-2019?=100?-5.0-3.0-1.01.03.0303540452023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-10?+19?分?德:分?:?+19?分?德:?:?+19?分?德:?:?/?/?24000250002

77、6000270002800029000300002022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-10分?:?:?/?德?43?87?德?分?88?德迪?迪?EIA?Wind?Wind?忽?.?%?.?%?德?點?忽?組?德?德?全?沖?危?換?缺?組?德?點?忽?89?德德?德?德?90?德德?全?Wind?Wind?9.010.011.012.013.014.028.029.030.031.032.02020-01-312020-06-302020-11-302021-04-302021-0

78、9-302022-02-282022-07-312022-12-312023-05-312023-10-312024-03-312024-08-312025-01-312025-06-302025-11-30?:分?:?:?德:分?:?:?/?/?3040506070802020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052024-082024-11?德:?:?%?-2.0-1.00.01.02.

79、03.04.00.02.04.06.02003-05-152004-05-152005-05-152006-05-152007-05-152008-05-152009-05-152010-05-152011-05-152012-05-152013-05-152014-05-152015-05-152016-05-152017-05-152018-05-152019-05-152020-05-152021-05-152022-05-152023-05-152024-05-15?德:德?:10?德?德?:10?%?%?0100002000030000400002001-112003-042004-

80、092006-022007-072008-122010-052011-102013-032014-082016-012017-062018-112020-042021-092023-022024-07?德:德?德:德?:?德:德?:?(?)?德?44?91?組?德德?92?德?Wind?Wind?德?德?.?%?.?%?德?公?受?受?意?忽?農?忽?續?德?忽?危?危?忽?分?勁?危?忽?分?德?93?德德?熱?94?德德?Wind?Wind?0100002000030000400001?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?2024?2023?2022?2021?2020?20

81、19?2018?2017?-500000050000010000002001-112003-052004-112006-052007-112009-052010-112012-052013-112015-052016-112018-052019-112021-052022-112024-05?德:?:3?性?德:?:3?性?德:?:3?性?0100002000030000400002021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-10?:德?:熱?:?:

82、熱?:?:熱?(?)4050401004015040200401?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?2019?2020?2021?2022?2023?2024?德?45?95?德?96?德?Wind?Wind?忽?德?續?哈?危?點?點?德?組?缺?德?受?危?勁?分?忽?全?點?組?類?受?全?忽?忽?勁?分?續?分?全?勁?類?點?97?FX?DXY?98?Macrobond?Macrobond?忽?.?.?德?分?分?勁?類?公?050001000015000200001?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?2019?2020?2021?2022?2023?202

83、4?0.51.52.53.52023-12-292024-01-292024-02-292024-03-312024-04-302024-05-312024-06-302024-07-312024-08-312024-09-302024-10-312024-11-30德?:1?德?:2?德?:5?德?:10?德?:30?%?德?46?德?分?受?全?分?德?忽?.?.?續?缺?德?分?納?忽?忽?忽?德?點?德?忽?德?99?德?熟德 10?100?德?缺?德?100?Macrobond?Macrobond?忽?缺?組?類?受?全?德?忽?危?續?續?勁?德?點?忽?哈?農?危?續?勁?受?忽

84、?德?47?101?102?PPP?Macrobond?Macrobond?忽?.?.?組?德?缺?意?德?德?忽?組?點?受?組?受?全?類?分?忽?意?德?103?500?104?點?Macrobond?Macrobond?德?48?105?Mag?106?續?Macrobond?Macrobond?續?勁?忽?忽?續?點?受?哈?續?全?續?續?續?類?德?忽?德?類?續?缺?107?續?108?續?忽?Macrobond?Macrobond?忽?熱?克?缺?GDP?潛?缺?德?49?109?GDP?110?全?PE?2010?缺?Macrobond?Macrobond?忽?德?類?忽?

85、勁?克?受?組?點?德?忽?點?A?粘?A?續?A?農?缺?農?熱?A?缺?組?德?續?德?分?分?12?2025?分?組?德?點?德?2450-2900?/?+德?分?德?危?危?危?全?60-75?/?10Y?德?點?組?危?德?沖?危?勁?3.7%-4.3%02040608010012001020304050?500?SENSEX30?225?200?德DAX?德CAC40?德?100PE?TTM?2010?%?德?50 10Y?意?分?紹?德?1.6%-2.1%?德?續?點?組?紹受?危?點?組?受?全?續?分?全?點?100-110?德?分?類?分?受?全?德?0.95-1.06?德

86、?分?緒?德?點?德?1.20-1.35?組?公?德?續?德?點?續?135-160?組?德?分?勁?德?勁?7.10-7.40?組?公?點?勁?組?受?全?分?勁?德?墻?續?全?續?勁?類?9?潛?挖?德?墻?組?德?點?A?續?A?組?德?續?德?分?德?51?德?類?忽?分?續?德?德?組?缺?忽?組?組?勁?德?組?勁?德?續?組?勁?德?缺?勁?缺?德?續?缺德?熱?德?組?勁?德?決?決?熱?組?德?52?1?COMEX?.?2?WTI?NYMEX?.?3?LME?.?4?.?5?CBOT?.?6?CBOT?.?7?德 10?2?德?.?8?德 10?2?德?.?9?.?10?.

87、?11?德?.?12?續?全?.?13?德 GDP?.?14?德 GDP?全?.?15?德 ISM?PMI?全?.?16?德 ISM?PMI?全?.?17?德?全?GDP?.?18?德?.?19?德?.?20?德?.?21?德?.?22?德?.?23?德?.?24?德 CPI?CPI?.?25?德 PPI?PPI?.?26?德 PCE?PCE?.?27?.?28?12?.?29?9?.?30?全?德?GDP?.?31?PMI.?32?德 IFO?.?德?53?33?德 GFK?.?34?20 德?.?35?HICP?HICP?.?36?.?37?德 GDP?.?38?德 GDP?3?GDP?.

88、?39?德?PMI.?40?德?.?41?德 ILO?.?42?德 CPI?CPI?.?43?德?.?44?續 GDP?.?45?續?PMI.?46?續?.?47?續 CPI?CPI?.?48?續?CPI?CPI?.?49?續?分?.?50?續?.?51?GDP?.?52?分?.?53?.?54?CPI?.?55?.?56?.?57?.?58?德?.?59?德?2000.1-2024.11?.?60?德?2000.1-2024.11?.?61?.?62?-?德?德?.?63?2019?2023?德?德?.?64?德?.?65?-?德?GDP?.?66?-?A?.?67?-?A?.?68?德?.

89、?69?全?.?德?54?70?德?CPI?.?71?德?.?72?.?73?.?74?續?.?75?.?76?.?77?德?.?78?VIX?.?79?德?.?80?VIX?.?81?德?德?.?82?全?.?83?VIX?COMEX?.?84?.?85?+19?分?德分?.?86?分?.?87?德?分?.?88?德?.?89?德德?德?德?.?90?德德?全?.?91?德德?.?92?德?.?93?德德?.?94?德德?.?95?德?.?96?德?.?97?FX?DXY?.?98?.?99?德?德 10?.?100?德?德?100?.?101?.?102?PPP?.?103?500?.?1

90、04?點?.?105?Mag?.?106?續?.?德?55?107?續?.?108?續?.?109?GDP.?110?全?PE?2010?.?1?11?30?2024?全?分?%?.?2?12?(%).?3?.?4?2.0?全?1.0?.?5?德?.?6?2.0?.?7?1.0?德?.?8?1-6?德?全?德?.?9?1.0?.?10?分?.?11?.?12?分?.?德?56?續?續?續?續?續?緒?勁?續?德?分?德?全?續?德?危?續?受?納?熱?納?熱?續?危?沖?受?續?續?受?續?續?熱?續?續?續?續?續?續?續?危?危?納?續?德?勁?續?緒?續?緒?續?續?受?A?%?-?%?%?%?%?%?%?-?%?%?%?3088?20?-?chengxi_?-?suyiyun_?99?31?-?luyunru_?-?liyangyang_?8?1?-?-?chuying_