中國有色金屬行業：風起云涌的黃金板塊-221129（16頁）.pdf

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1、 Table_yemei1 觀點聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。關于海通國際的分析師證明，重要披露聲明和免責聲明，請參閱附錄。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究報告 Research Report 29 Nov 20228 中國有色金屬中國

2、有色金屬 China Non-ferrous Metals 風起云涌的黃金板塊 The Gold Sector is In the Ascendant Table_Info 股票名稱 評級 股票名稱 評級 紫金礦業 Outperform 川能動力 Outperform 天齊鋰業 Outperform 銅陵有色 Outperform 贛鋒鋰業 Outperform 金力永磁 Outperform 華友鈷業 Outperform 馳宏鋅鍺 Outperform 洛陽鉬業 Outperform 錫業股份 Outperform 山東黃金 Outperform 盛屯礦業 Outperform 石英股份

3、Outperform 立中集團 Outperform 中礦資源 Outperform 萬豐奧威 Outperform 格林美 Outperform 安寧股份 Outperform 南山鋁業 Outperform 博威合金 Outperform 天華超凈 Outperform 寧波韻升 Outperform 銀泰黃金 Outperform 貴研鉑業 Outperform 神火股份 Outperform 甬金股份 Outperform 赤峰黃金 Outperform 鑫鉑股份 Outperform 橫店東磁 Outperform 盛達資源 Outperform 東陽光 Outperform 資料來

4、源：Factset,HTI Related Reports Presentation：國內碳酸鋰庫存連續 6 周下降（Domestic lithium carbonate inventory fell for six consecutive weeks）(13 Nov 2022)Presentation：國內碳酸鋰庫存連續 4 周下降（Domestic lithium carbonate inventory fell for four consecutive weeks）(6 Nov 2022)海外鋰企三季報跟蹤系列 2-Pilbara:鋰輝石精礦量價齊升，項目產能穩步提高（3Q22 Over

5、seas Lithium Tracking Series 2 Pilbara:the Sales and Price of Spodumene Concentrate Rose,with the Project Capacity Increased）(26 Oct 2022)(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)1.美國美國 2 年期和年期和 10 年期國債收益率倒掛年期國債收益率倒掛 根據歷史數據可知，美國 2 年期和 10 年期國債收益率倒掛往往意味著后續會發生經濟衰退。而經濟衰退時政府會通過儲備黃金策略減少風險，使得黃金有較大上漲空間。2.

6、通脹和加息放緩利使得金價有充足的上升空間通脹和加息放緩利使得金價有充足的上升空間 短期內通脹和加息將成為黃金投資的主線，從通脹的角度看，美國本次通脹屬于結構性問題。從加息的角度看，美聯儲在今年已經連續六次加息，給美國政府帶來了較高的信用風險，使得美聯儲加息放緩具有較大的確定性。3.貨幣需求高漲利好黃金上行貨幣需求高漲利好黃金上行“去美元化”浪潮已開啟。已有較多國家開始拋售美債，并同步增加外匯儲備中非美資產的配置。相較于其他資產配置，黃金的優勢較為突出，目前全球央行對黃金有旺盛的需求。投資建議：投資建議：建議長期持有，短期關注通脹、加息和地緣政治影響。風險提示：風險提示：全球疫情影響經濟復蘇；美

7、聯儲加速加息風險；地緣政治風險。Table_Author Yijie Wu 406080100120Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22HAI China Non-ferrous MetalsMSCI China 29 Nov 2022 2 Table_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 一、復盤歷史上的黃金價格一、復盤歷史上的黃金價格 自 1968 年至今，黃金價格總計經歷過三次大漲，第一輪主要受貨幣體系更迭影響，后三輪主要受黃金市場消費和全球經濟衰退影響?！镜谝惠啞俊镜谝惠啞?975-1980 年：布雷頓森林體系瓦解年：布雷頓森林體系瓦解 1971 年，美國尼

8、克松政府違約導致美元與黃金脫鉤，布雷頓森林體系瓦解。自此后黃金價格開始上漲，直至 1980 年達到 700 美元/盎司?！镜诙啞俊镜诙啞?000-2012 年：世界經濟衰退年：世界經濟衰退 以 2000 年互聯網為代表的新經濟泡沫破裂和“9.11 事件”的沖擊為代表，拉開了世界經濟不穩定的序幕，各國政府通過儲備黃金對沖風險，價格從 2001 年的 300 美元/盎司上漲至 2011 年的 1400 美元/盎司，漲幅超 3 倍?！镜谌啞俊镜谌啞?019 年年 9 月月-2020 年年 12 月：新冠月：新冠疫情疫情對全球經濟的沖擊對全球經濟的沖擊 2020 年 3 月，美股受疫情沖擊接連

9、熔斷，且全球疫情始終沒得到有效控制，使得買入黃金進行避險的需求有增無減。全球最大的黃金 ETF 資金流入創新高，政府和投資者為規避全球流動性寬松和潛在通脹的風險，選擇配置黃金，使黃金市場大漲。圖圖 1 倫敦現貨黃金歷史價格倫敦現貨黃金歷史價格 資料來源：Wind，海通國際 0.00500.001000.001500.002000.001968197419801986199219982004201020162022倫敦現貨黃金(美元/盎司）4XgUdYpXmVmUoMoMsQ9P9RaQtRqQnPtReRrQrQkPoMwP8OpOpPxNmMtQxNqMxO 29 Nov 2022 3 Ta

10、ble_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 二二、美國、美國 2 年期和年期和 10 年期國債收益率倒掛年期國債收益率倒掛 根據歷史數據可知，1990 年、2000 年和 2008 年的經濟衰退均發生在美國 2 年和10 年期國債收益率倒掛之后，因此美國國債收益率倒掛往往意味著后續會發生經濟衰退。而經濟衰退時政府會通過儲備黃金減少風險，使得黃金有較大上漲空間。圖圖 2 美國美國 10 年國債年國債-2 年期國債收益率年期國債收益率 資料來源：Wind，海通國際 由圖可知，自從 2022 年 7 月 6 日至今，美國 2 年期國債收益率始終低于 10 年期國債收益率，收益率差值于 11 月

11、 16 日達到 68 個基點的峰值，預期未來存在經濟衰退的可能，利好黃金市場。三三、通脹和加息放緩利使得金價有充足的上升空間、通脹和加息放緩利使得金價有充足的上升空間 黃金的屬性包括主要資產屬性、貨幣屬性與商品屬性，其價格也主要由這三類屬性共同影響。從短期來看，由于資產屬性對各類風險最為敏感，故資產屬性對黃金價格的影響最為劇烈，貨幣屬性次之，而商品屬性對黃金而言，整體的供需結構調整與其價格的波動相關性不強。從資產屬性看，黃金屬于最典型的無息資產，是其他風險資產的重要替代品。作為無息資產，實際利率常常被認為持有黃金作為資產配置的機會成本，當實際利率高時，持有黃金的成本高，投資者傾向于投資債券等付

12、息資產，而對黃金的需求下降，黃金價格有走弱的趨勢。從實際利率的角度出發，以美國十年期通脹國債指數（TIPS）為代表的實際利率水平指標與黃金價格顯示出明顯的負相關。-0.8-0.30.20.71.21.72.22.7199019941998200220062010201420182022衰退期美國:10年國債-2年期國債（%）29 Nov 2022 4 Table_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 圖圖 3 美國美國 10 年期通脹指數國債與黃金價格相關關系年期通脹指數國債與黃金價格相關關系 資料來源：Wind，海通國際 實際利率=名義利率-通貨膨脹率。黃金作為一種抗通脹的資產，一般而言

13、其價格往往與通脹率以及通脹預期正相關。從當前美國的通脹態勢看，此輪美國的通脹速度和規模不亞于 70 年代的滯漲時期。70 年代滯漲期美國通脹率從 2.7%上升至 9.4%耗時20 個月，而本輪通脹率水平從 2.6%上升至高點 9.1%僅耗時 16 個月。圖圖 4 美國通脹率走勢美國通脹率走勢 資料來源：Wind，海通國際 從本次通脹的起因看，美國的本輪通脹是在夸張的擴張性財政政策、“大水漫灌”的貨幣政策等供需因素共同作用下的結果。按照貨幣主義理論的觀點，通貨膨脹無論何時何地都是一種貨幣現象：當過多的貨幣追逐有限商品時，就必會推高商品價格。2020 年 3 月，美聯儲兩度緊急降息，將基準利率降至

14、 0-0.25%，并開啟了“無上限”量化寬松政策。從 2020 年 2 月末至 2022 年3 月末，美聯儲總資產規模由 4.2 萬億美元迅速擴張至近 9 萬億美元，兩年時間累計增長超 1 倍，這為美國高通脹提供了流動性基礎。-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50050010001500200025002003200520072009201120132015201720192021倫敦現貨黃金（美元/盎司，左軸）美國10年期通脹指數國債收益率(%，右軸)-3.00-1.001.003.005.007.009.0011.0013.0015.

15、0017.0019581962196619701974197819821986199019941998200220062010201420182022美國:核心CPI:當月同比美國:CPI:當月同比 29 Nov 2022 5 Table_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 與美聯儲貨幣“大放水”相配合，財政政策“大刺激”也對美國通脹提供了政策沃土。美國政府先后推出了七輪財政紓困救助法案，金額累計達 6.7 萬億美元。美國聯邦政府財政赤字從 2019 年的 9840 億美元跳升至 2020 年的 3.1 萬美元，財政赤字占GDP 比重由 2019 年的 4.6%躍升至 2020 年的 1

16、5.2%。財政政策的大規模刺激導致了總需求的過度擴張，加劇了供需失衡。短期內，大量的貨幣進入流通市場，而價格是具有粘性的，大量增加的貨幣導致的貨幣超額供給需要長時間的中高程度的通脹率進行消化。高利率環境給美國政府帶來巨大的償債付息壓力，同時對經濟復蘇的抑制作用可能會帶來大衰退風險，美聯儲加息放緩的意愿日益強烈。美聯儲貨幣政策是影響黃金價格走勢的核心因素之一。2022 年 11 月 2 日，美聯儲結束貨幣政策會議后宣布加息75 個基點。這是美聯儲今年連續第六次加息，也是連續第四次加息 75 個基點。截止目前，2022 年美聯儲已連續六次加息，高額的利息壓力加重了美國債務負擔。美國國債存在規模大、

17、增速快的特點，截至 2021 年，美國國債規模為 30.23 萬億，占 2021年 GDP 的 137.2%。2019-2021 年美國國債規模增速較快，2020 年同比增長 18.67%，2021 年同比增長 12.35%。伴隨著美聯儲加息，利率水平升高，美國政府的償債付息壓力上升，很有可能帶來信任危機。圖圖 5 美國美國 GDP 同比增速（不變價格）同比增速（不變價格）資料來源：Wind，海通國際 -10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0019481951195419571960196419671970197319761979198319861989199219951998

18、2002200520082011201420172021美國:GDP:不變價:折年數:同比（%）29 Nov 2022 6 Table_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 圖圖 6 美國聯邦政府債務與占美國聯邦政府債務與占 GDP 比重（單位：百萬美元）比重（單位：百萬美元）資料來源：Wind，海通國際 高利率對經濟的嚴重抑制阻礙了美國經濟的進一步復蘇，甚至有導致大衰退的風險。美國商務部數據顯示，今年第三季度美國實際國內生產總值按不變價格折年數計算僅為增長 1.77%，較上季度增長 1.8%更為惡化。同時占美國經濟總量約 70%的個人實際消費支出僅增長 0.26%，較前一季度明顯收縮。鑒

19、于前三季度美國經濟連續萎縮，加之消費者支出和房地產市場迅速走弱，高利率導致的衰退如陰云籠罩。圖圖 7 美國人均消費支出增長率（不變價格）美國人均消費支出增長率（不變價格）資料來源：Wind，海通國際 0204060801001201400.005000.0010000.0015000.0020000.0025000.0030000.002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021美國:聯邦政府:負債:總額（十億美元，左軸）美國:聯邦政府總額:占GDP比重（%，右軸

20、）-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022美國:不變價:折年數:人均個人消費支出增長率：季調 29 Nov 2022 7 Table_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 四四、貨幣需求高漲利好黃金上行、貨幣需求高漲利好黃金上行 美元是世界上主要的外匯儲備貨幣、國際投融資貨幣和錨貨幣。但是由于美國實施金融制裁，利用美元地位轉嫁通脹壓力，對于部分國家而言，無論從政治還是經濟的角度出

21、發，“去美元化”意愿已開始發酵。同時美國近年來債務增長速度超過經濟增長速度，持有美元的風險大幅上升。圖圖 8 美國外債總額大幅上升美國外債總額大幅上升 資料來源：Wind，海通國際 對于各國央行來說，黃金始終保持著儲備貨幣的地位，從貨幣儲備的角度來看，美元的替代品一般有商品貨幣、加密貨幣（比特幣）、數字貨幣和其他貨幣等。從各替代品的角度來看，以黃金為代表的商品貨幣可能是目前階段最好的選擇。這幾年各國央行越發意識到美元資產存在風險，開始持續拋售美元資產，然后不斷買入黃金。據世界黃金協會數據，自 2010 年起，世界黃金儲備基本處于上升趨勢，截至 2022 年3 月，世界黃金儲備已達到 35590

22、 噸，10 年 CAGR 達 1.29%。今年上半年，各國央行凈買入 270 噸黃金。這與上半年 266 噸的五年平均產量持平。今年到目前為止，各國央行在黃金儲備中增加了 300 多噸黃金。50.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.00110.00120.000.005000000.0010000000.0015000000.0020000000.0025000000.0030000000.0020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022美國:外債總額（百萬美元，

23、左軸）美國:外債總額:占GDP比例（%，右軸）29 Nov 2022 8 Table_header1 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 圖圖 9 全球黃金儲備情況全球黃金儲備情況 資料來源：Wind，海通國際 從替代空間來看，截至 2022 年 6 月底，全球外匯儲備規模 12.03 萬億美元，其中美元外匯儲備 6.65 萬億，而黃金資產儲備規模約 2.09 萬億美元（按 2022 年 9 月 31 日價格計算），替代空間較為廣闊。五五、黃金企業資源梳理、黃金企業資源梳理 我們對主要黃金企業的資源儲量、21 年礦產金產量、22 年礦產金產量預測以及產量展望進行了梳理，主要數據如下：表表 1 黃金企業基

24、本情況黃金企業基本情況 單位：噸單位：噸 資源儲量資源儲量 21 年礦產金產量年礦產金產量 22 年礦產金產量年礦產金產量 產量展望產量展望 產量產量 備注備注 紫金礦業 2373 47.5 60.0 80-90 25 年指引 山東黃金 1281 24.8 39.3 80 25 年 E，集團層面 赤峰黃金 563 8.1 15.8 20 23 年 E，我們預計權益量 銀泰黃金 170 7.2 8 16 23 年 E 招金礦業 1219 12.6 14.7-23 年海域金礦投產 湖南黃金 144 5.2 5.4-中金黃金 510.5 20 19.5-資料來源：各公司年報，海通國際預測 六六、風險

25、提示、風險提示 全球疫情影響經濟復蘇；美聯儲加速加息風險；地緣政治風險。-1.50%-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%27000.0028000.0029000.0030000.0031000.0032000.0033000.0034000.0035000.0036000.0037000.0020002001200220032004200620072008200920102011201320142015201620172018202020212022世界黃金儲備（噸，左軸）黃金儲備增長率（右軸）29 Nov 2022 9 Table_heade

26、r2 中國有色金屬中國有色金屬 APPENDIX 1 Summary 1.US 2-year and 10-year treasury bond yields are inversely linked According to historical data,the upside down of the US two-year and 10-year bond yields often means that economic recession will occur later.When the economy is in recession,the government will reduc

27、e the risk through the gold reserve strategy,making gold have greater room to rise.2.Inflation and slowing interest rate increase make the gold price have enough room to rise In the short term,inflation and interest rate increase will become the main line of gold investment.From the perspective of i

28、nflation,the current inflation in the United States is a structural problem.From the perspective of interest rate increase,the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for six consecutive times this year,which has brought high credit risk to the U.S.government,making it more certain that the Federa

29、l Reserve will slow down its interest rate increase.3.High money demand is good for gold The wave of de dollarization has started.More countries have begun to sell off US debt and simultaneously increased the allocation of African US assets in foreign exchange reserves.Compared with other asset allo

30、cation,gold has more prominent advantages.At present,the global central banks have strong demand for gold.Investment suggestions:We suggest to hold for a long time and pay attention to inflation,interest rate increase and geopolitical influence in the short term.Risk warning:The global epidemic affe

31、cts the economic recovery;The risk of the Federal Reserve accelerating interest rate increase;Geopolitical risks.10 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附錄附錄APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和

32、海通國際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HS

33、IPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認證分析師認證A

34、nalyst Certification:我，Yijie Wu，在此保證（i）本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點，并且（ii）我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關；及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Yijie Wu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the su

35、bject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the securit

36、y or securities of the subject companies discussed.利益沖突披露利益沖突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通國際及其某些關聯公司可從事投資銀行業務和/或對本研究中的特定股票或公司進行做市或持有自營頭寸。就本研究報告而言，以下是有關該等關系的披露事項（以下披露不能保證及時無遺漏，如需了解及時全面信息，請發郵件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker

37、or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email

38、to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通證券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（統稱“海通”）在過去12個月內參與了603799.CH的投資銀行項目。投資銀行項目包括：1、海通擔任上市前輔導機構、保薦人或主承銷商的首次公開發行項目；2、海通作為保薦人、主承銷商或財務顧問的股權或債務再融資項目；3、海通作為主經紀商的新三板上市、目標配售和并購項目。Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role

39、in investment banking projects of 603799.CH within the past 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 603799.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter

40、or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.作為回報，海通擁有002340.CH 及 002738.CH一類普通股證券的1%或以上。The Haitong beneficially owns 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of 002340.CH and 002738.CH.6037

41、99.CH 及 603993.CH目前或過去12個月內是海通的投資銀行業務客戶。603799.CH and 603993.CH are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.603993.CH,600547.CH,000630.CH,600988.CH,600711.CH,300428.CH 及 000603.CH目前或過去12個月內是海通的客戶。海通向客戶提供非投資銀行業務的證券相關業務服務。603993.CH,600547.CH,000630.CH,600988.C

42、H,600711.CH,300428.CH and 000603.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.福建馬坑礦業股份有限公司,四川四環鋅鍺科技有限公司 及 包頭盛泰汽車零部件制造有限公司目前或過去12個月內是海通的客戶。海通向客戶提供非證券業務服務。福建馬坑礦業股份有限公司,四川四環鋅鍺科技有限公司 and 包頭盛泰汽車零

43、部件制造有限公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.海通預計將（或者有意向）在未來三個月內從603799.CH 及 002738.CH獲得投資銀行服務報酬。Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next three month

44、s from 603799.CH and 002738.CH.海通在過去的12個月中從福建馬坑礦業股份有限公司,000630.CH,四川四環鋅鍺科技有限公司 及 包頭盛泰汽車零部件制造有限公司獲得除投資銀行服務以外之產品或服務的報酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 福建馬坑礦業股份有限公司,000630.CH,四川四環鋅鍺科技有限公司 and 包頭盛泰汽車零部件制造有限公司.海通擔任601899.

45、CH,603993.CH,600547.CH 及 1818.HK有關證券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 601899.CH,603993.CH,600547.CH and 1818.HK.11 評級定義評級定義（從（從2020年年7月月1日開始執行）日開始執行）：海通國際（以下簡稱“HTI”）采用相對評級系統來為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司：優于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應仔細閱讀HTI的評級定義。并且HTI發布分析師觀點的完整信息，投資者應仔細閱讀全文而非

46、僅看評級。在任何情況下，分析師的評級和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應基于各自情況（比如投資者的現有持倉）以及其他因素。分析師股票評級分析師股票評級 優于大市優于大市，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 中性中性，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大，基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則，我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市弱于大市，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數：日本 TOPIX,韓國 KOSPI,臺灣 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美國 SP500;其他

47、所有中國概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research

48、.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or rel

49、ied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return o

50、f its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls

51、into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP50

52、0;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.評級分布評級分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年9月月30日海通國際股票研究評級分布日海通國際股票研究評級分布 優于大市優于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通國際股票研究覆蓋率 89.4%9.2%1.4%投資銀行客戶*5.5%6.8%4.5%*在每個評級類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。上述分布中的買入，中性和賣出分別對應我們當前優于大市，中性和落后大市評級。只有根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則，我們才將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。請注意在上表中不包含非評級

53、的股票。此前的評級系統定義（直至此前的評級系統定義（直至2020年年6月月30日）：日）：買入，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 中性，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大，基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則，我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。賣出，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 12 各地股票基準指數：日本 TOPIX,韓國 KOSPI,臺灣 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research R

54、atings Distribution,as of Sep 30,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.4%9.2%1.4%IB clients*5.5%6.8%4.5%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperfor

55、m,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total ret

56、urn over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only o

57、f FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Ja

58、pan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通國際非評級研究：海通國際非評級研究：海通國際發布計量、篩選或短篇報告，并在報告中根據估值和其他指標對股票進行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍數提出建議價格。這種排名或建議價格并非為了進行股票評級、提出目標價格或進行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitativ

59、e,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通國際海通國際A股覆

60、蓋股覆蓋：海通國際可能會就滬港通及深港通的中國A股進行覆蓋及評級。海通證券（600837.CH），海通國際于上海的母公司，也會于中國發布中國A股的研究報告。但是，海通國際使用與海通證券不同的評級系統，所以海通國際與海通證券的中國A股評級可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen.

61、Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI

62、and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通國際海通國際優質優質100 A股股（Q100）指數指數：海通國際Q100指數是一個包括100支由海通證券覆蓋的優質中國A股的計量產品。這些股票是通過基于質量的篩選過程，并結合對海通證券 A股團隊自下而上的研究。海通國際每季對Q100指數成分作出復審。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-qualit

63、y A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.MSCI ESG評級免責聲明條款：評級免責聲明條款：盡管海通國際的信息供貨商（包括但不限于MSCI ES

64、G Research LLC及其聯屬公司（ESG方）從其認為可靠的來源獲取信息（信息）,ESG方均不擔?；虮ＷC此處任何數據的原創性，準確性和/或完整性，并明確表示不作出任何明示或默示的擔保，包括可商售性和針對特定目的的適用性。該信息只能供閣下內部使用，不得以任何形式復制或重新傳播，并不得用作任何金融工具、產品或指數的基礎或組成部分。此外，信息本質上不能用于判斷購買或出售何種證券,或何時購買或出售該證券。即使已被告知可能造成的損害,ESG方均不承擔與此處任何資料有關的任何錯誤或遺漏所引起的任何責任，也不對任何直接、間接、特殊、懲罰性、附帶性或任何其他損害賠償（包括利潤損失）承擔任何責任。MSCI

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68、ion with any data herein,or any liability for any direct,indirect,special,punitive,consequential or any other damages(including lost profits)even if notified of the possibility of such damages.盟浪義利（盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數據通免責聲明條款：）數據通免責聲明條款：在使用盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數據之前，請務必仔細閱讀本條款并同意本聲明：第一條 義利（FIN-ESG）數據系由盟浪可持續數字科技有限

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78、 loss.4.If any term is not contained in this disclaimer but written in other agreements on our website(e.g.User Registration Protocol of SusallWave Website,User Service(including authentication)Agreement of SusallWave Website,Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website),it should be executed according to o

79、ther agreements.If there is any difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.重要免責聲明：重要免責聲明：非印度證券的研究報告非印度證券的研究報告：本報告由海通國際證券集團有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全資附屬公司海通國際研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）發行，該公司是根據香港證券及期貨條例（第571章）持有第4類受規管活動（就證券提供意見）的持牌法團。該研究報告在HTISGL的全資附屬公司Haitong International(Jap

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122、對于因本研究報告而產生的或與之相關的任何問題，本研究報告的收件人應通過以下信息與HTISSPL聯系：Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd 50 Raffles Place,#33-03 Singapore Land Tower,Singapore 048623 電話:(65)6536 1920 日本投資者的通知事項：日本投資者的通知事項：本研究報告由海通國際證券有限公司所發布，旨在分發給從事投資管理的金融服務提供商或注冊金融機構（根據日本金融機構和交易法（“FIEL”）第61（1）條，第17-11（1）條的執行及相關條款）。英國及

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