麥肯錫：贏得競爭 — 中國汽車市場正在改變方向(英文版)（208頁）.pdf

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1、October 2019 McKinsey China Auto CEO Quarterly Winning the race: Chinas auto market shifts gears December 2019 McKinsey China Auto CEO Quarterly Chief editors: Paul Gao, Arthur Wang, Mingyu Guan, Editorial board: Pei Shen, Micheala Fang, Tianwen Yu, Levix Liang, Tony Zhou Authors: Bill Peng, Ting Wu

2、, Frank Chu, Daniel Zipser, Christopher Thomas, Tony Zhou, Forest Hou, Yezhou Shi, Sonny Chen, Ondrej Burkacky, Georg Doll, Johannes Deichmann, Christian Knochenhauer, Dominik Lelievre, Pei Shen, Lihong Pan, Rong Jing Managing editors: Glenn Leibowitz, Lin Lin Project management: Yezhou Shi, Zilong

3、Cheung, Chang Zhao, Karim Khemiri, Jiahao Chen Copyright 2019 McKinsey Arthur Wang is a partner in McKinseys Hong Kong office; Mingyu Guan is a partner in McKinseys Shenzhen office; Bill Peng is a partner in McKinseys Hong Kong office; Ting Wu is a partner in McKinseys Shenzhen office; Frank Chu is

4、a partner in McKinseys Taipei office. Copyright 2019 McKinsey Arthur Wang is a partner in McKinseys Hong Kong office; Mingyu Guan is a partner in McKinseys Shenzhen office. The authors would like to thank Frank Chu, Ting Wu, and Bill Peng for their contribution to this article. Copyright 2019 McKins

5、ey China Statistical Yearbook; McKinsey 1 IHS projected data (June 2019) 2 Based on newborn data in the corresponding years; mortality factor is not accounted for The age-appropriate first-time vehicle buyer group is decreasing, a new challenge facing the Chinese automotive market. 22 McKinsey China

6、 Auto CEO Quarterly, Fall 2019 creating an unprecedented challenge for Chinas automotive market. In China, buying a vehicle is deemed a necessity for newlyweds. Since 2014, the number of couples tying the knot has declined from close to 12 million couples in 2013 to less than 9 million in 2017. Over

7、lap between newlyweds and the first-time buyer group offers further indication as to why market demand is weakening (see Exhibit 2). Vehicle owners are less inclined to trade in their vehicles In light of the dwindling first-time buyer market, experienced buyers will eventually take over as the driv

8、ing force supporting sales. However, influenced by the boom in shared mobility, and increasingly advanced public transport systems, the utilization rate of passenger vehicles is falling, and the trade-in cycle is lengthening (see Exhibit 3). Assuming consumers wait for an average one additional mont

9、h before buying a new car, we estimate annual trade-in volume will shrink by 8.3 percent. This lengthening of the trade-in cycle, coupled with the drop in the pool of young would-be first-time buyers, pose significant issues for the industry. Exhibit 2: Marriage registrations data offer insight into

10、 the size of the age-appropriate, first-time vehicle buyer group 11.6 12.6 13.6 16.2 18.0 19.7 23.0 24.0 11.0 11.5 11.811.9 11.4 10.5 9.6 8.7 12112010151314162017 Passenger vehicle sales (million units) Number of newlywed couples (million couples) Correlation between the number of newlywed couples a

11、nd passenger vehicle sales trends Source: IHS; China Statistical Yearbook; McKinsey Number of newlywed couples vs. passenger vehicle sales 95%92%87%74%63%54%42%36% 23 Unleashing value in Chinas slowing auto market Macroeconomic growth is slowing and the market is normalizing Prior to Q4 2015, the gr

12、owth of passenger vehicle sales was tightly correlated to GDP growth (see Exhibit 4). However, in the two years to end-2017, the two temporarily diverged. Preferential policies supporting sales of small displacement cars spurred a significant change in consumer behavior. We estimate that the nine-qu

13、arter period during which these tax incentives were on offer may have triggered the advance purchase of millions of passenger vehicles. After the withdrawal of the preferential tax policy at the start of 2018, the correlation between passenger vehicle consumption and the economy resurfaced. Exhibit

14、3: Urban public transport and shared mobility is sapping willingness to trade in vehicles; the trade-in cycle is lengthening Percentage of second-hand vehicle transactions in China by vehicle age 8.0% 9.7% 10.9% 21.0% 22.0% 22.6% 71.0% 68.3% 66.5% 172016 710 years Within 6 years 2018 100% 10 years+

15、18.4 201620172018 16.2 21.0 +14.1% p.a. Passenger traffic of metro systems in Chinese cities Unit: 1 bn rides 3.8 17 7.9 20162018 10.0 +63.1% p.a. Number of online bookings Unit: 1 bn bookings Source: China Automobile Dealers Association, China Urban Railway Transport Association, Development of Chi

16、nas Sharing Economy Annual Report (2019), McKinsey The proportion of second-hand vehicles with a low vehicle age is decreasing gradually, showing that the trade-in cycle is lengthening Passenger traffic of urban metro systems is increasing Ride-sharing bookings are increasing rapidly 24 McKinsey Chi

17、na Auto CEO Quarterly, Fall 2019 Exhibit 4: After eliminating impact of the preferential tax policy, growth of passenger vehicle consumption is positively correlated to the macro-economy 5 0 -15 -10 7.0 -5 15 6.6 10 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.3 20 7.6 25 7.4 7.730 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 Q3Q1Q2Q4Q3 Quarterly growth

18、rate of passenger vehicle sales (YoY) Unit: % Q2Q1 Quarterly GDP growth rate (YoY) Unit: % Q4Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2 Q3 Q4Q1Q3 Q4Q2Q4 Q1Q1 GDP (right axis)Passenger vehicles (left axis) 2014201520162017201820132019 The growth of passenger vehicle sales is positively correlated to macroeconomic trends The growth

19、of passenger vehicle sales is once again positively correlated to macroeconomic trends Source: IHS; China Statistical Yearbook; McKinsey From Q4 2015 to end of 2017, amid purchase tax incentives for low-emission vehicles, there was a temporary divergence between the growth of passenger vehicle sales

20、 and the macro economic trend Based on our estimates, this nine-quarter stimulus fostered the advance purchase of millions of passenger vehicles 25 Unleashing value in Chinas slowing auto market Big city consumers, and premium brand demand, will provide impetus for growth Lower vehicle penetration r

21、ates, and local consumers relatively strong desire for vehicle ownership, has traditionally spurred more rapid sales growth in lower-tier cities. However, this trend reversed in 2018. Sales growth in higher- tier cities started to lead the market, while lower-tier cities lagged behind (see Exhibit 5

22、). We believe that the preferential tax policy unlocked the early Exhibit 5: From 2018, higher-tier cities outperformed lower-tier cities driven by vehicle purchase tax incentive withdraw and unbalanced population growth -3.6 6.1 4.9 9.8 Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Tier-4 cities Tier-3 cities Growth

23、 in passenger vehicle sales by city-tier classification1 Unit: % 9.3 6.2 1.9 -1.5 JV brands local brands1 Premium brands Total -254 -14 29 -239 12.7 12.6 3.1 Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Tier-3 statistical yearbooks at different city levels and the National Bureau of Statistics website 1 Based on the

24、 number of insured vehicles 2 Based on resident population data in 241 cities Sources of YoY growth for tier-3 Autohome 1 Based on the number of insured vehicles 2 Compact or small-size passenger vehicles YoY growth 28.7% 14.0% 16.4% 27 Unleashing value in Chinas slowing auto market Automakers at ho

25、me and overseas are battling significant earnings pressure Price reductions designed to boost sales are commonplace in Chinas automotive market, and price-cutting behavior continues in 2019. At the same time, pressure on brands to further reduce prices of cheaper models, such as compact passenger ve

26、hicles, is much higher than that on high-priced models, including mid-size and full-size passenger vehicles. Persistent price wars aimed at low-priced models with large market share are driving steady declines in the domestic industrys profit margin (see Exhibit 7). Likewise, the global financial pe

27、rformance of international automotive companies is also subject to tremendous pressure (see Exhibit 8). Many international automotive companies have enjoyed rich returns in China, but the days of easy sales growth are over. The proliferation of ACES (autonomous, connected, electric, and shared) offe

28、rings is forcing automotive Exhibit 7: Prices continue to drop, pressuring low-price vehicles. The automotive industrys profit margin is also on the decline 2019120152017 100.0 95.7 94.9 Chinese Passenger Vehicle Pricing Index 2015 as the base 8.7 7.8 6.4 2015201720191 Profit margin of Chinas automo

29、tive manufacturing industry Unit: % 81.1% 84.1% 86.9% 18.9% 15.9% 13.1% % discount Compact sedan Mid-size sedan Mid/Full- size sedan Actual Sales price 100% MSRP and real transaction prices of sedan cars by class 1H 20192: 100% = MSRP Source: National Bureau of Statistics; CAAM; JD Power; ISE; McKin

30、sey 1 Jan-Jun, 2019; 2 Based on the arithmetic average of the monthly data during Jan-Jun 2019 Chinese automotive industry profits are dropping More pressure on low-priced vehicles Vehicle pricing is dropping year by year 28 McKinsey China Auto CEO Quarterly, Fall 2019 companies to expand investment

31、 in new products and technologies. However, facing the reality of declining profit margins, both international and domestic automotive companies have no choice but to more carefully plan their capital expenditures. Branding is becoming more important as competition heats up Over the past few years,

32、the rapid rise of Chinese brands has been a bright spot in the passenger vehicle market. However, since 2018, these brands have started to lose their shine, and their combined market share has dropped by close to 3 percentage points from its peak in 2017. Excluding the electric vehicle market, in wh

33、ich Chinese brands are predominant, the share of Chinese brands has fallen to less than a third of the market (see Exhibit 9). Meanwhile, Japanese auto brands have enjoyed particular success. Chinese consumers have rewarded Japanese companies long-term commitment to improving reliability, fuel effic

34、iency, and powertrain technologies. Despite the overall decline in their market share, leading Chinese companies Exhibit 8: Global auto companies are also under significant performance pressure Source: McKinsey analysis; IHS statistical data; companies financial reports Key automotive companies 2,38

35、5 1,178 584 564 23 2,621 1,732 2,433 1,064 1,568 4,267 4,096 3,389 3,644 Q12019Q12018 Q1 2019 and Q1 2018 net profit USD million YoY growth in net profit in Q1 2019 -4% -7% -9% -32% -76% -47% -99% 29 Unleashing value in Chinas slowing auto market (Geely, SGMW, Great Wall, Changan, SAIC Motor, GAC Mo

36、tor, BYD, and Chery) are starting to wield their economies of scale, reflecting the current survival of the fittest market situation (see Exhibit 10). The ratio of the combined market share of these eight companies to the total market share of Chinese brands increased by 14 percentage points in just

37、 three years, reaching 78 percent in the first half of 2019. Other weaker Chinese brands with monthly sales in thousands of units must somehow counter this onslaught from the big players. Chinese car companies have been prone to launching new brands in response to several issues, including difficult

38、y in raising the value of the primary brand, the need to break into a new market segment, or desire to reach a new demographic. When overall sales growth in China was powering along in the double-digits, there was adequate space for these new brands to survive, but precious few were able to carve a

39、niche in the high-end market. Now, as the market moves through a period of stagnation, several such sub- brands are under serious threat. Exhibit 9: Chinese brands are losing out, particularly in the ICE market 1.51.51.5 2.0 1.50.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 12.6 11.0 9.6 19.0 21.0 22.7 22.3 24.625.6 37.5 35.334.8

40、 Korea 20182017 100% Jan-Jun, 2019 France USA China Germany Others Japan Proportion of passenger vehicle sales by brand origin Unit: % 37.5 35.3 34.8 36.3 32.6 32.0 Jan-Jun, 2019 182017 ICE onlyICE+EV Source: Data on Chinas newly sold vehicles with insurance coverage; McKinsey Market shares of Chine

41、se passenger vehicle brands Unit: % 30 McKinsey China Auto CEO Quarterly, Fall 2019 Exhibit 10: Market concentration is increasing among Chinese brands, reflecting a survival of the fittest situation 64.1 65.6 74.2 78.2 35.9 34.4 25.8 21.8 2016172019218 Leading companies Other companies -15 10 -30 0

42、 -25 201720192 -40 18 -10 -35 -20 -5 5 15 20 25 Other companies Leading companies1 YoY growth in sales of Chinese brands Unit: % Source: Data on Chinas newly sold vehicles with insurance coverage 1 Geely, SGMW, Great Wall, Changan, SAIC, GAC, BYD, and Chery; selection criteria: top 8 homegrown brand

43、s in sales over the past 3 years and business bigger than other domestic brands (Chery in 8th place on the sales ranking from January to May 2019 has twice as many sales as the automaker in 9th place) 2 Jan-Jun, 2019 Leading Chinese brands are growing much faster than SMEs Leading companies market s

44、hare is increasing, while companies at the bottom find it increasingly hard to survive Proportion of market share among Chinese brands Unit: % Lessons for Chinas independent auto companies from GMs brand transition Chinas independent auto brands can learn much from the evolution of General Motors (G

45、M)s brand matrix (Exhibit 11). There remains some overlap in the pricing of Chevrolet and Buick, but there was a time when GMs brand mix was complicated by two other similarly positioned marques: Pontiac and Oldsmobile. It is not hard to imagine the resulting contradictions in product positioning, p

46、ricing, design, production, and marketing with four brands squeezed into a similar price range. In the end, GM acted decisively to eliminate both historic brands. 31 Unleashing value in Chinas slowing auto market In the mid-1980s, GM launched the Saturn brand to counter the encroachment of Japanese

47、vehicles into the US market. Saturn took an innovative approach, as reflected in their slogan, “A different kind of car company. However, GM found it hard to allocate sufficient resources to maintain Saturns unique and independent brand image. As a result, Saturn was unable to fulfill its mission of

48、 defending GM against Japanese vehicles, only serving to cannibalize other brands under the GM umbrella Exhibit 11: lessons learned for GMs multi- brand strategy: A complex brand matrix is extremely difficult to manage, and a broad- brush, streamlined approach to branding may be the ultimate way out

49、 Pricing: high Pricing: low Discontinued brands Source: Retrieved documents; McKinsey Traditional core brands Special brands Focus on SUVsPersonalized brand GMs brand matrix1 Saturn, established in 1985 and discontinued in 2009 Saturns brand slogan: A different kind of car company Pontiac, discontinued in 2010 Oldsmobile, discontinued in 2004 Hummer, discontinued in 2010 1 Only includes brands established locally within the US; excluding regional brands outside of the US, such as Vauxhall and Holden 32 McKinsey China Auto CEO Quarterly, Fall 20