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1、 Table_yemei1 觀點聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究報告由海通國際分銷,海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司,海通證券印度私人有限公司,海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌,海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。關于海通國際的分析師證明,重要披露聲明和免責聲明,請參閱附錄。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究報告 Research Report 6 Apr 2023 中國石油中國石油 P
2、etroChina(601857 CH)原油均價抬升,盈利創新高 Crude oil average price rises,profits reach new highs Table_Info 維持優于大市維持優于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM 評級 優于大市 OUTPERFORM 現價 Rmb6.18 目標價 Rmb7.79 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G:0-5 MSCI ESG 評級 B 義利評級 A-來源:MSCI ESG Research LLC,盟浪.Reproduced by permission;no further distribution
3、市值 Rmb1,090bn/US$158.37bn 日交易額(3 個月均值)US$125.28mn 發行股票數目 161,922mn 自由流通股(%)7%1 年股價最高最低值 Rmb6.21-Rmb4.79 注:現價 Rmb6.18 為 2023 年 4 月 6 日收盤價 資料來源:Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 絕對值 12.4%23.8%19.5%絕對值(美元)12.7%23.9%10.5%相對 MSCI China 37.2%50.3%55.3%Table_Profit (Rmb mn)Dec-22A Dec-23E Dec-24E Dec-25E 營業收入 3,239,
4、167 3,222,009 3,193,252 3,243,359(+/-)24%-1%-1%2%凈利潤 149,375 111,663 106,788 110,355(+/-)62%-25%-4%3%全面攤薄 EPS(Rmb)0.82 0.61 0.58 0.60 毛利率 22.0%19.2%19.1%19.1%凈資產收益率 10.9%7.8%7.2%7.2%市盈率 8 10 11 10 資料來源:公司信息,HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)中國石油公布中國石油公布 2022 年年報。年年報。2022 年,公司實現營業收入32391
5、.67 億元,同比增長 23.9%;實現歸屬于母公司股東凈利潤1493.75 億元(折合每股收益 0.82 元),同比增長 62.1%,創歷史新高。盈利創新高。盈利創新高。2022 年公司實現經營收益 2166.6 億元,同比增長34.44%;實現經營收益率 4.02%,為 2015 年以來的最好水平。分板塊看,高油價下,油氣與新能源業務盈利大幅提升;煉油化工和新材料、以及銷售板塊整體維持穩定。油氣和新能源業務:經營收益同比增長油氣和新能源業務:經營收益同比增長 142%。2022 年,布倫特原油均價 99.08 美元/桶,同比增長 40.02%。油價上漲帶動公司上游板塊盈利大增。2022 年
6、公司油氣和新能源業務實現經營收益 1657.48 億元,同比增長 142.14%;實現經營收益率 17.84%,同比上升 7.89 個百分點。煉油化工和新材料業務:煉油毛利提升,化工板塊承壓。煉油化工和新材料業務:煉油毛利提升,化工板塊承壓。2022年,公司煉油與化工業務實現經營收益 405.70 億元,同比下降18.4%,在原油價格大幅上升的背景下,盈利仍處于歷史較好水平。其中,煉油與化工盈利分化,煉油業務實現經營收益411.68 億元,同比增長 9.1%;化工業務虧損 5.98 億元,同比減利 126.08 億元。銷售業務:盈利穩定增長。銷售業務:盈利穩定增長。2022 年,公司積極克服需
7、求下滑影響,銷售業務板塊實現經營收益 143.74 億元,同比增長 8.3%。天然氣銷售業務:進口氣成本承壓。天然氣銷售業務:進口氣成本承壓。2022 年,受進口氣成本上漲影響,公司天然氣銷售業務板塊實現經營收益 129.57 億元,剔除昆侖能源管道資產交易對 2021 年經營利潤的影響后,同比減少人民幣 126.88 億元。2023 年計劃資本支出同比下降年計劃資本支出同比下降 11%。2023 年公司預計資本支出為 2435 億元,同比下降 11.23%。其中,油氣和新能源業務預計資本投入 1955 億元,同比下降 11.77%;煉油化工和新材料業務預計資本支出 340 億元,同比下降 1
8、8.60%。盈利預測與投資建議。盈利預測與投資建議。我們預計公司 2023-2025 年 EPS 分別為0.61、0.58、0.60元(前期預測:2022-2024年EPS分別為0.82、0.60、0.54 元),2023年BPS為7.79元(前期預測:2022年BPS 為 7.50 元)。參考可比公司估值水平,給予其 2023 年 1.0 倍PB,對應合理價值為 7.79 元(原目標價 7.50 元,對應 2022 年1.0 倍 PB,上調 3.86%),維持“優于大市”投資評級。風險提示:風險提示:原油、天然氣價格回落將影響上游業務盈利;煉化行業景氣度下降將影響公司煉油與化工業務板塊盈利。
9、Table_Author Junjun Zhu Xin Hu 6080100120140Price ReturnMSCI ChinaApr-22Aug-22Dec-22Apr-23Volume 6 Apr 2023 2 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 12022 年歸母凈利潤創新高年歸母凈利潤創新高 2022 年,公司實現營業收入 32391.67 億元,同比增長 23.9%;實現歸屬于母公司股東凈利潤 1493.75 億元(折合每股收益 0.82 元),同比增長 62.1%,創歷史新高。圖圖 1 中國石油凈利潤情況中國石油凈利潤情況 資料來
10、源:Wind,中國石油 2001-2022 年報,HTI 2各業務板塊分析各業務板塊分析 2022 年公司實現經營收益 2166.6 億元,同比增長 34.44%;實現經營收益率4.02%,為 2015 年以來的最好水平。分板塊看,高油價下,油氣與新能源業務盈利大幅提升;煉油化工和新材料、以及銷售板塊整體維持穩定。圖圖 2 中國石油整體經營收益中國石油整體經營收益 資料來源:公司 2008-2022 年報,HTI 圖圖 3 中國石油油氣和新能源業務經營收益中國石油油氣和新能源業務經營收益 資料來源:公司 2008-2022 年報,HTI 0204060801001200200400600800
11、100012001400160020012003200520072009201120132015201720192021凈利潤(億元,左軸)布倫特油價(美元/桶,右軸)0%2%4%6%8%10%0400800120016002000240020082010201220142016201820202022經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0400800120016002000240020082010201220142016201820202022經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)4WaXlYjZaUkXtWrYuV8Od
12、N7NsQpPtRpMiNqQtPjMmMzQ6MmOnOMYoOtPwMpNnM 6 Apr 2023 3 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 圖圖 4 中國石油煉油化工和新材料經營收益中國石油煉油化工和新材料經營收益 資料來源:公司 2008-2022 年報,HTI 圖圖 5 中國石油天然氣銷售業務經營收益中國石油天然氣銷售業務經營收益 資料來源:公司 2008-2022 年報,HTI 油氣與新能源業務:經營收益同比增長油氣與新能源業務:經營收益同比增長 142%2022 年,公司實現原油產量 9.06 億桶(約 1.23 億噸),同比增長
13、2.1%;其中國內原油產量 7.67 億桶,同比增長 1.9%。實現天然氣產量 1323.99 億立方米,同比增長 5.8%;實現油氣當量產量 16.85 億桶,同比增長 3.7%。2022 年,原油價格持續高位,上游業務板塊盈利能力維持高位,公司油氣和新能源業務實現經營收益1657.48億元,同比增長142.14%;實現經營收益率17.84%,同比上升 7.89 個百分點。表表 1 中國石油油氣產量數據中國石油油氣產量數據 單位 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 同比 原油 百萬桶 971.9 920.7 887.0 890.3 909
14、.3 921.8 887.9 906.2 2.1%天然氣 十億立方英尺 3131.0 3274.5 3423.4 3607.6 3908.0 4221.0 4420.0 4675.0 5.8%油當量 百萬桶 1493.9 1466.6 1457.8 1491.7 1560.8 1625.5 1624.8 1685.4 3.7%資料來源:公司 2015-2022 年報,HTI 煉油化工和新材料業務:煉油毛利提升,化工板塊承壓煉油化工和新材料業務:煉油毛利提升,化工板塊承壓 2022 年,公司原油加工量 12.13 億桶(約 1.64 億噸),同比減少 1.00%。成品油產量方面,汽油實現產量 4
15、351.4 萬噸,同比減少 11.89%;柴油實現產量 5364.8 萬噸,同比增加 11.20%;航空煤油實現產量 819.2 萬噸,同比減少 26.06%。柴汽比1.23:1。2022 年,公司按照產業鏈效益最大化原則優化產品結構,煉油化工和新材料業務全年實現經營收益 405.70 億元,同比下降 18.4%,在原油價格大幅上升的背景下,盈利仍處于歷史較好水平。其中,煉油與化工盈利分化,煉油業務實現經營收益 411.68 億元,同比增長 9.1%;化工業務虧損 5.98 億元,同比減利 126.08 億元。降油增化是趨勢。2022年公司成品油收率為64.19%,同比下降1.38個百分點;乙
16、烯產量 741.9 萬噸,同比+10.52%。-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-800-600-400-200020040060080020082010201220142016201820202022經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%010020030040050060070020082010201220142016201820202022經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)6 Apr 2023 4 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 表表 2 中國石油煉油及化工產品產量數
17、據中國石油煉油及化工產品產量數據 單位 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 同比 原油加工量 百萬桶 998.1 953.3 1016.9 1180.5 1228.4 1177.5 1225.0 1212.7-1.00%汽油 萬噸 3225.8 3327.5 3736.3 4579.4 5043 4628.0 4938.8 4351.4-11.89%航空煤油 萬噸 549.3 605.8 711.1 1104.3 1273.3 1004.3 1107.9 819.2-26.06%柴油 萬噸 5418.2 4668.9 4824.1 5431
18、.1 5462.8 5071.9 4824.5 5364.8 11.20%乙烯 萬噸 503.2 558.9 576.4 556.9 586.3 634.5 671.3 741.9 10.52%資料來源:公司 2015-2022 年報,HTI 銷售業務:盈利穩定增長銷售業務:盈利穩定增長 2022 年,受市場需求下滑影響,公司全年實現成品油銷量 1.51 億噸,同比減少7.75%。其中,汽油銷量 5820.9 萬噸,同比減少 11.78%;柴油銷量 7876.2 萬噸,同比減少 3.63%。2022 年,公司國內積極提升銷量、市場占有率和價格到位率,國際貿易業務積極開源增效,銷售業務板塊實現經
19、營收益 143.74 億元,同比增長 8.3%。表表 3 中國石油成品油銷售數據(千噸)中國石油成品油銷售數據(千噸)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 同比 汽油 60651 62406 65293 71125 76366 66084 65981 58209-11.78%柴油 84763 80168 87324 86904 90163 80796 81728 78762-3.63%煤油 14683 16533 16849 19469 21183 14350 15598 13678-12.31%資料來源:公司 2015-2022 年報,HT
20、I 天然氣銷售業務:進口氣成本承壓天然氣銷售業務:進口氣成本承壓 2022 年,受進口氣成本上漲影響,公司天然氣銷售業務板塊實現經營收益129.57 億元,剔除昆侖能源管道資產交易對 2021 年經營利潤的影響后,同比減少人民幣 126.88 億元。3單季度經營情況單季度經營情況 圖圖 6 中國石油單季度油氣和新能源業務經營收益中國石油單季度油氣和新能源業務經營收益 資料來源:公司 2010-2022 季報、半年報、年報,HTI 圖圖 7 中國石油單季度煉油化工與新材料經營收益中國石油單季度煉油化工與新材料經營收益 資料來源:公司 2010-2022 季報、半年報、年報,HTI -25%-20
21、%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-300-250-200-150-100-500501001502002503003504004505005506006501Q101Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q22經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%-250-200-150-100-500501001502001Q101Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q22經營收益(億元,
22、左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)6 Apr 2023 5 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 圖圖 8 中國石油單季度銷售業務經營收益中國石油單季度銷售業務經營收益 資料來源:公司 2010-2022 季報、半年報、年報,HTI 圖圖 9 中國石油單季度天然氣與管道業務經營收益中國石油單季度天然氣與管道業務經營收益 資料來源:公司 2010-2022 季報、半年報、年報,HTI 4.資本支出穩中趨降資本支出穩中趨降 2022 年,公司實際資本支出 2743.07 億元,同比增長 9.21%;其中,油氣和新能源業務板塊資本投入明顯提升,全年資本支出 2
23、215.92 億元,同比增長 24.31%。2023 年公司預計資本支出為 2435 億元,同比下降 11.23%。其中,油氣和新能源業務預計資本投入 1955 億元,同比下降 11.77%;煉油化工和新材料業務預計資本支出 340 億元,同比下降 18.60%。表表 4 中國石油資本支出數據(百萬元)中國石油資本支出數據(百萬元)2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2023E 同比 勘探與生產 130248 161997 196109 230117 186620 178259 221592 195500-11.77%煉油與化工 12847 177
24、05 15287 21279 21810 54487 41771 34000-18.60%銷售 7983 10982 17010 17618 16294 10982 5069 7000 38.09%天然氣與管道 20340 24529 26502 27004 21143 6750 4936 6000 21.56%其他 968 1014 1066 758 626 700 939 1000 6.50%合計 172386 216227 255974 296776 246493 251178 274307 243500-11.23%資料來源:公司 2016-2022 年報,HTI 5盈利預測與投資評級
25、盈利預測與投資評級 我們預計公司 2023-2025 年 EPS 分別為 0.61、0.58、0.60 元(前期預測:2022-2024 年 EPS 分別為 0.82、0.60、0.54 元),2023 年 BPS 為 7.79 元(前期預測:2022年 BPS 為 7.50 元)。參考可比公司估值水平,給予其 2023 年 1.0 倍 PB,對應目標價為 7.79 元(原目標價 7.50 元,對應 2022 年 1.0 倍 PB,上調 3.86%),維持“優于大市”投資評級。盈利預測主要假設:(1)假設油氣產量穩定增長,2023-2025 年原油產量年均增速 0.8%,天然氣產量年均增速 4
26、.6%;(2)假設 2023-2025 年國際油價維持高位震蕩,布倫特油價分別為 85 美元/桶、80 美元/桶、80 美元/桶。-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-200204060801001Q101Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q22經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%-60-1040901401902402903403904401Q101Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151
27、Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q22經營收益(億元,左軸)經營收益率(%,右軸)6 Apr 2023 6 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 表表 5 中國石油各板塊業務盈利預測中國石油各板塊業務盈利預測 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 油氣和新能源油氣和新能源 營業收入(百萬元)909141 804156 733472 734159 營業成本(百萬元)580188 562909 513431 513911 毛利率 36.18%30.00%30.00%30.00%煉油化工和新材料煉油化工和新材料 營業收入(百萬元)
28、1157918 1158659 1186778 1217614 營業成本(百萬元)896515 892168 913819 937563 毛利率 22.58%23.00%23.00%23.00%銷售銷售 營業收入(百萬元)2742369 2787618 2786503 2842233 營業成本(百萬元)2640615 2684476 2683402 2737070 毛利率 3.71%3.70%3.70%3.70%天然氣銷售天然氣銷售 營業收入(百萬元)513331 464607 459141 451967 營業成本(百萬元)499567 450669 440775 431628 毛利率 2.6
29、8%3.00%4.00%4.50%注:表中各業務收入、成本為內部抵消前的預測。資料來源:Wind,HTI 表表 6 可比公司盈利預測與估值(以可比公司盈利預測與估值(以 2023.3.29 日價格作為收盤價)日價格作為收盤價)收盤價 BPS(元,2023E)PB(倍,2023E)中國石化 5.47 元 6.81 元 0.80 ??松梨?108.96 美元 347.61 元 2.16 平均平均-1.48 資料來源:Wind、Bloomberg 一致預期,HTI 6風險提示風險提示 原油、天然氣價格回落將影響上游業務盈利;煉化行業景氣度下降將影響公司煉油與化工業務板塊盈利。6 Apr 2023
30、7 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 財務報表分析和預測財務報表分析和預測 Table_ForecastInfo 主要財務指標主要財務指標 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 利潤表(百萬元)利潤表(百萬元)2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 每股指標(元)每股指標(元)營業總收入營業總收入 3239167 3222009 3193252 3243359 每股收益 0.82 0.61 0.58 0.60 營業成本 2527935 2603169 2584863 2623790 每股凈資產 7.48 7.79 8.08 8.3
31、8 毛利率%22.0%19.2%19.1%19.1%每股經營現金流 2.15 1.90 1.79 1.92 營業稅金及附加 276821 275482 273023 277307 每股股利 0.42 0.31 0.29 0.30 營業稅金率%8.5%8.6%8.6%8.6%價值評估(倍)價值評估(倍)營業費用 68352 67984 67378 68435 P/E 6.87 9.20 9.61 9.30 營業費用率%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%P/B 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.67 管理費用 50523 50263 49815 50596 P/S 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.
32、32 管理費用率%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%EV/EBITDA 2.14 3.08 2.96 2.70 EBIT 315284 223178 216258 221285 股息率%7.5%5.4%5.2%5.4%財務費用 19614 19391 19391 19391 盈利能力指標(盈利能力指標(%)財務費用率%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%毛利率 22.0%19.2%19.1%19.1%資產減值損失-37233-20050-20050-20050 凈利潤率 4.6%3.5%3.3%3.4%投資收益-11140 3222 3193 3243 凈資產收益率 10.9%7.8%7.2%7.2
33、%營業利潤營業利潤 242564 187859 180902 185993 資產回報率 5.6%4.1%3.8%3.9%營業外收支-29292-28500-28500-28500 投資回報率 12.2%8.4%7.9%7.8%利潤總額利潤總額 213272 159359 152402 157493 盈利增長(盈利增長(%)EBITDA 529344 382278 377558 384784 營業收入增長率 23.9%-0.5%-0.9%1.6%所得稅 49295 36653 35053 36223 EBIT 增長率 66.2%-29.2%-3.1%2.3%有效所得稅率%23.1%23.0%23
34、.0%23.0%凈利潤增長率 62.1%-25.2%-4.4%3.3%少數股東損益 14602 11044 10561 10914 償債能力指標償債能力指標 歸屬母公司所有者凈利潤歸屬母公司所有者凈利潤 149375 111663 106788 110355 資產負債率 42.5%40.8%40.5%39.1%流動比率 0.98 1.09 1.19 1.32 速動比率 0.60 0.71 0.81 0.93 資產負債表(百萬元)資產負債表(百萬元)2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 現金比率 0.36 0.51 0.58 0.73 貨幣資金 225049 300807 358539
35、437755 經營效率指標經營效率指標 應收賬款及應收票據 72028 52085 70920 54015 應收賬款周轉天數 6.93 6.93 6.93 6.93 存貨 167751 153121 165495 157920 存貨周轉天數 22.19 22.19 22.19 22.19 其它流動資產 149039 142683 148532 144146 總資產周轉率 1.25 1.20 1.16 1.15 流動資產合計 613867 648697 743486 793836 固定資產周轉率 7.35 6.89 6.71 6.72 長期股權投資 269671 272671 275671 27
36、8671 固定資產 463027 472427 479728 484928 在建工程 196876 186876 176876 166876 無形資產 92960 93410 93860 94310 現金流量表(百萬元)現金流量表(百萬元)2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 非流動資產合計 2059884 2060634 2059185 2055535 凈利潤 149375 111663 106788 110355 資產總計資產總計 2673751 2709331 2802670 2849371 少數股東損益 14602 11044 10561 10914 短期借款 38375 38
37、375 38375 38375 非現金支出 252880 179150 181350 183550 應付票據及應付賬款 304747 269918 300706 278512 非經營收益 39432 36269 36306 36242 預收賬款 0 0 0 0 營運資金變動-62521 9634-7674 9475 其它流動負債 281141 284675 283271 286074 經營活動現金流經營活動現金流 393768 347759 327331 350535 流動負債合計 624263 592968 622352 602960 資產-243023-204500-204508-2044
38、94 長期借款 169630 169630 169630 169630 投資-3689-3000-3000-3000 其它長期負債 341755 341755 341755 341755 其他 13741 3222 3193 3243 非流動負債合計 511385 511385 511385 511385 投資活動現金流投資活動現金流-232971-204278-204315-204250 負債總計負債總計 1135648 1104353 1133737 1114345 債權募資-24981 0 0 0 實收資本 183021 183021 183021 183021 股權募資 529 0 0
39、 0 歸屬于母公司所有者權益 1369576 1425407 1478802 1533979 其他-89261-67723-65286-67069 少數股東權益 168527 179571 190132 201046 融資活動現金流融資活動現金流-113713-67723-65286-67069 負債和所有者權益合計負債和所有者權益合計 2673751 2709331 2802670 2849371 現金凈流量現金凈流量 54401 75758 57731 79216 備注:(1)表中計算估值指標的收盤價日期為 03 月 29 日;(2)以上各表均為簡表 資料來源:公司年報(2022),HTI
40、 6 Apr 2023 8 Table_header2 中國石油(601857 CH)維持優于大市維持優于大市 APPENDIX 1 Summary PetroChina released the 2022 annual report.In 2022,the company realized revenue of Rmb3239.167bn,+23.9%;realizedNPAtS of Rmb149.375bn(EPS at Rmb0.82),+62.1%YoY,hitting a record high.Earnings forecast and investment rating.We
41、estimate that the companys EPS to be Rmb0.61/0.58/0.60 in 2023-2025(EPS of Rmb0.82/0.60/0.54 previously from 2022-2024),corresponding to a BPS of Rmb7.79 by 2023(BPS of Rmb7.50 previously in 2022).Compared with peers valuation,we applied the company with a 2023 PB of 1.0 x,and derived the target pri
42、ce of Rmb7.79(last target price:Rmb7.50,corresponding to 2022 PB 1.0 x,+3.86%).We maintain the“OUTPERFORM”rating.Risks.A decline in oil and natural gas prices will impact the profitability of upstream businesses;a decrease in the prosperity of the refining industry will affect the earnings of the co
43、mpanys refining and chemical business sectors 9 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附錄附錄APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究報告由海通國際分銷,海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通國際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌,海通國際證券集團(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證
44、券活動。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong Internation
45、al Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認證分析師認證Analyst Certification:我,Junjun Zhu,在此保證(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或
46、所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Junjun Zhu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)n
47、o part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我,Xin Hu,在此保證
48、(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Xin Hu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to
49、 in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject compani
50、es discussed.利益沖突披露利益沖突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通國際及其某些關聯公司可從事投資銀行業務和/或對本研究中的特定股票或公司進行做市或持有自營頭寸。就本研究報告而言,以下是有關該等關系的披露事項(以下披露不能保證及時無遺漏,如需了解及時全面信息,請發郵件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions
51、of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive i
52、nformation is needed).601857.CH 及 中國石化集團齊魯石油化工公司目前或過去12個月內是海通的客戶。海通向客戶提供非投資銀行業務的證券相關業務服務。601857.CH and 中國石化集團齊魯石油化工公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.海通在過去的12個月中從601857.CH獲得除投資銀行服務
53、以外之產品或服務的報酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 601857.CH.10 評級定義評級定義(從(從2020年年7月月1日開始執行)日開始執行):海通國際(以下簡稱“HTI”)采用相對評級系統來為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司:優于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應仔細閱讀HTI的評級定義。并且HTI發布分析師觀點的完整信息,投資者應仔細閱讀全文而非僅看評級。在任何情況下,分析師的評級和研究都不能作為
54、投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應基于各自情況(比如投資者的現有持倉)以及其他因素。分析師股票評級分析師股票評級 優于大市優于大市,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 中性中性,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大,基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市弱于大市,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數:日本 TOPIX,韓國 KOSPI,臺灣 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美國 SP500;其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China.Ratings
55、 Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong
56、 International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment adv
57、ice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad marke
58、t benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating categor
59、y.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-conc
60、ept stocks MSCI China.評級分布評級分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年12月月31日海通國際股票研究評級分布日海通國際股票研究評級分布 優于大市優于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通國際股票研究覆蓋率 89.4%9.2%1.5%投資銀行客戶*5.2%7.3%8.3%*在每個評級類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。上述分布中的買入,中性和賣出分別對應我們當前優于大市,中性和落后大市評級。只有根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們才將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。請注意在上表中不包含非評級的股票。此前的評級系統定義(直至此前的評級系統定義
61、(直至2020年年6月月30日):日):買入,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 中性,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大,基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。賣出,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數:日本 TOPIX,韓國 KOSPI,臺灣 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China.11 Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of
62、 Dec 31,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.4%9.2%1.5%IB clients*5.2%7.3%8.3%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperfor
63、m.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 m
64、onths is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings dist
65、ribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Tai
66、wan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通國際非評級研究:海通國際非評級研究:海通國際發布計量、篩選或短篇報告,并在報告中根據估值和其他指標對股票進行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍數提出建議價格。這種排名或建議價格并非為了進行股票評級、提出目標價格或進行基本面估值,而僅供參考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short repo
67、rts which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通國際海通國際A股覆蓋股覆蓋:海通國際可能會就滬港通及深港通的中國A股
68、進行覆蓋及評級。海通證券(600837.CH),海通國際于上海的母公司,也會于中國發布中國A股的研究報告。但是,海通國際使用與海通證券不同的評級系統,所以海通國際與海通證券的中國A股評級可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600
69、837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the sa
70、me A-share stocks.海通國際海通國際優質優質100 A股股(Q100)指數指數:海通國際Q100指數是一個包括100支由海通證券覆蓋的優質中國A股的計量產品。這些股票是通過基于質量的篩選過程,并結合對海通證券 A股團隊自下而上的研究。海通國際每季對Q100指數成分作出復審。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage
71、 at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.MSCI ESG評級免責聲明條款:評級免責聲明條款:盡管海通國際的信息供貨商(包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其聯屬公司(ESG方
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87、is any difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.重要免責聲明:重要免責聲明:非印度證券的研究報告非印度證券的研究報告:本報告由海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISGL”)的全資附屬公司海通國際研究有限公司(“HTIRL”)發行,該公司是根據香港證券及期貨條例(第571章)持有第4類受規管活動(就證券提供意見)的持牌法團。該研究報告在HTISGL的全資附屬公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”)的協助下發行,H
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108、海通國際證券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)負責分發該研究報告,HTISCL是在香港有權實施第1類受規管活動(從事證券交易)的持牌公司。該研究報告并不構成證券及期貨條例(香港法例第571章)(以下簡稱“SFO”)所界定的要約邀請,證券要約或公眾要約。本研究報告僅提供給SFO所界定的“專業投資者”。本研究報告未經過證券及期貨事務監察委員會的審查。您不應僅根據本研究報告中所載的信息做出投資決定。本研究報告的收件人就研究報告中產生或與之相關的任何事宜請聯系HTISCL銷售人員。美國投資者的通知事項:美國投資者的通知事項:本研究報告由HTIRL,HSIPL或HTIJKK編寫。HTIRL,HSIPL,H
109、TIJKK以及任何非HTISG美國聯營公司,均未在美國注冊,因此不受美國關于研究報告編制和研究分析人員獨立性規定的約束。本研究報告提供給依照1934年“美國證券交易法”第15a-6條規定的豁免注冊的美國主要機構投資者(“Major U.S.Institutional Investor”)和機構投資者(”U.S.Institutional Investors”)。在向美國機構投資者分發研究報告時,Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”)將對報告的內容負責。任何收到本研究報告的美國投資者,希望根據本研究報告提供的信息進行任何證券或相關
110、金融工具買賣的交易,只能通過HTI USA。HTI USA位于340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173,電話(212)351-6050。HTI USA是在美國于U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(“SEC”)注冊的經紀商,也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,Inc.(“FINRA”)的成員。HTIUSA不負責編寫本研究報告,也不負責其中包含的分析。在任何情況下,收到本研究報告的任何美國投資者,不得直接與分析師直接聯系,也不得通過HSIPL,HTIRL或
111、HTIJKK直接進行買賣證券或相關金融工具的交易。本研究報告中出現的HSIPL,HTIRL或HTIJKK分析師沒有注冊或具備FINRA的研究分析師資格,因此可能不受FINRA第2241條規定的與目標公司的交流,公開露面和分析師賬戶持有的交易證券等限制。投資本研究報告中討論的任何非美國證券或相關金融工具(包括ADR)可能存在一定風險。非美國發行的證券可能沒有注冊,或不受美國法規的約束。有關非美國證券或相關金融工具的信息可能有限制。外國公司可能不受審計和匯報的標準以及與美國境內生效相符的監管要求。本研究報告中以美元以外的其他貨幣計價的任何證券或相關金融工具的投資或收益的價值受匯率波動的影響,可能對
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129、)。新加坡投資者的通知事項:新加坡投資者的通知事項:本研究報告由Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd(“HTISSPL”)公司注冊編號201311400G 于新加坡提供。HTISSPL是符合財務顧問法(第110章)(“FAA”)定義的豁免財務顧問,可(a)提供關于證券,集體投資計劃的部分,交易所衍生品合約和場外衍生品合約的建議(b)發行或公布有關證券、交易所衍生品合約和場外衍生品合約的研究分析或研究報告。本研究報告僅提供給符合證券及期貨法(第289章)第4A條項下規定的機構投資者。對于因本研究報告而產生的或與之相關的任何問題,本研
130、究報告的收件人應通過以下信息與HTISSPL聯系:Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd 50 Raffles Place,#33-03 Singapore Land Tower,Singapore 048623 電話:(65)6536 1920 日本日本投資者的通知事項:投資者的通知事項:本研究報告由海通國際證券有限公司所發布,旨在分發給從事投資管理的金融服務提供商或注冊金融機構(根據日本金融機構和交易法(“FIEL”)第61(1)條,第17-11(1)條的執行及相關條款)。英國及歐盟投資者的通知事項:英國及歐盟投資者的通知事項:
131、本報告由從事投資顧問的Haitong International Securities Company Limited所發布,本報告只面向有投資相關經驗的專業客戶發布。任何投資或與本報告相關的投資行為只面對此類專業客戶。沒有投資經驗或相關投資經驗的客戶不得依賴本報告。Haitong International Securities Company Limited的分支機構的凈長期或短期金融權益可能超過本研究報告中提及的實體已發行股本總額的0.5。特別提醒有些英文報告有可能此前已經通過中文或其它語言完成發布。澳大利亞投資者的通知事項:澳大利亞投資者的通知事項:Haitong Internatio
132、nal Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited和Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited分別根據澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(以下簡稱“ASIC”)公司(廢除及過度性)文書第2016/396號規章在澳大利亞分發本項研究,該等規章免除了根據2001年公司法在澳大利亞為批發客戶提供金融服務時海通國際需持有澳大利亞金融服務許可的要求。ASIC的規章副本可在以下網站獲?。簑ww.legislation.gov.au。海通國際提供的金融服務受外國法
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141、section 1.1 of National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions or,in Ontario,in section 73.3(1)of the Securities Act(Ontario),as applicable,and a“permitted client”as such term is defined in section 1.1 of NI 31-103,respectively.15 Notice to Singapore investors:This research report is provided in Si
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148、 should not rely on this research.Haitong International Securities Company Limiteds affiliates may have a net long or short financial interest in excess of 0.5%of the total issued share capital of the entities mentioned in this research report.Please be aware that any report in English may have been
149、 published previously in Chinese or another language.Notice to Australian investors:The research report is distributed in Australia by Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited in reliance on AS
150、IC Corporations(Repeal and Transitional)Instrument 2016/396,which exempts those HTISG entities from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia.A copy of the ASIC C
151、lass Orders may be obtained at the following website,www.legislation.gov.au.Financial services provided by Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited are regulated under foreign laws and regulato
152、ry requirements,which are different from the laws applying in Australia.Notice to Indian investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and
153、 Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).This research report is intended for the recipients only and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.Copyright:Haitong International Securities Group Limited 2019.All rights reserved.http:/ 16 Recommendation Chart Table_RecommendationChart Source:Company data Bloomberg,HTI estimates