Chris Chatterton-Methanol as a Maritime Fuel_EN.pdf

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1、CPCIC Future Energy ConferenceSeptember 22nd,2023Singapore|Washington|Brussels|Beijing|New DelhiMethanol as a Maritime FuelChris Chatterton,COOwww.methanol.org/join-usDemandDemand and Supply have largely been in balance over the past 20 years32M mtpa traded internationallyoChina imports 10M mtpaBroa

2、d sub-vertical markets across both chemicals and fuel applications means oLess price volatilityoPredictable supplyoConsistent quality-standardwww.methanol.org/join-us 100100milliontonneswww.methanol.org/join-usAvailabilityESTABLISHED TRADING HUBSEfficient break bulking,swaps,blendingTransparent pric

3、e assessmentsStandards and safe handlingLowers entry costswww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usMethanol use cases and demand drivers Source:IRENA study green methanol,IRENA pathway to decarbonize shipping,EU and national H2 strategies,EU Fit-for-55,Company publications,Auto OEM strategies

4、,Roland BergerHydrogen chainChemicalsMaritime Used to power ships as a form of cleaner fuel Sulphur free and low NOx-suitable fuel to substitute high-carbon conventional ship fuelAutomotive Can be used in conventional ICE1)vehicles by blending with gasoline or direct Can be used in hybrid and fuel c

5、ell vehicles methanol is used to charge fuel cellsAviationPower Methanol can be the feedstock for sustainable aviation as SAF2)via MtJ3)The source could be bio-or e-MeOH So far,no ASTM approval for MtJ process MeOH could also be used as a fuel to provide H2 in fuel cell propulsion planesFuelsRaw mat

6、erialsDemand growth of green methanol 1)Internal combustion engine;2)SAF=Sustainable Aviation Fuel;3)MtJ=Methanol to jet;4)LH2=liquefied H2 at c.-253 C;5)LOHC=Liquefied organic hydrogen carrier H2 will be the backbone for a decarbonized economy in industrial sectors Long-distance supply chains for g

7、reen H2 in build-up(e.g.,ME=EU)MeOH is an option for long-distance transport next to LH24),ammonia(NH3)and LOHC5)Power generation in off-grid solutions as a viable replacement to oil or coal Used for fuel cells to generate power and heat with use cases to also include security and surveillance,and r

8、emote telecommunication devices MeOH is a key chemical building block using 60%of all MeOH produced Chemical industry will have to decarbonize Green MeOH growth driven by balance between higher production cost demand for green and willingness-to-pay more123456Looking into the future green methanol w

9、ill be used in a wide range of applications as a fuel and as a hydrogen carrier-and continue its role as a chemical building blockwww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-us2050:Potential 5-Fold demand increaseAccording to IRENA,the uptake for both bio and renewablemethanol is set to increase s

10、ubstantially,by a factor of 5xcompared with conventional methanol,from approximately 1mlnmtpa in 2023oExisting infrastructure can be repurposedoWastefeedandCO2streamsarereadilyavailable,allowing harder to decarbonize sectors to de-leverageoCost effective and supports transition to carbon neutralityh

11、ttps:/www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jan/Innovation-Outlook-Renewable-MethanolConventional Methanol Emissions ReductionTransitionwww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usOrder book Fuel consumptionUptake by Vessel TypeAlt Fuel Uptake by Number of VesselsSource:ClarksonsEngine DesignersAltern

12、ative Fuels UptakeTop OwnersAlt FuelFleet%FleetOrder Book%Order BookMethanol25.00.0%165.03.1%190190020190No.Vessels 190 x 300=57,000 mt/day57,000 x 25=1.4M mt/mo1.4M x 12 mo=17.1M mtpaPotential Methanol DemandMPPCruiseOil and Products TankerChemical Product CarrierBulk CarrierContainershipwww.methan

13、ol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usDemand as marine fuelSource:ABSBased on new current new order book2x more than average annual capacity addition of global fleet,based on fossil RM is expected to backfill potential gapProjected Methanol DemandProjected RM Supplywww.methan

14、ol.org/join-usAggregation of Bio&E-methanolCan it be optimized?Case for consolidation ofproduction capacitiesoFeedoTechnologyoEPCoLogisticsUse of existing distribution,storage,S&MDigital TradingBunkering8M2027www.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usTransitional benchmarking&scalingYearIMO Ta

15、rgeted reductions relative to reference year2020Reference year2025 2%2030 6%30%2035 13%204026%80%2045205075%100%Sources:IMO,IRENA,MINew Nuclear?FeedstockTechnologySyngas/H2pathwayCO2Spec“Overall level of ambition to reach net-zero emissions as close to 2050 aspossible on an LCA basis”2050Carbon Free

16、 Energywww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usMethanol and green methanol forecastForecast by IRENAGrowth drivers in key segmentsUpdated forecast by Roland Berger9711014025012020982050500E-MeOHBio-MeOHFossil MeOH9711015427519820202050539Fossil MeOHE-MeOHBio-MeOH+5 to+10%for ren.MeOH vs.IREN

17、A,if hurdles are masteredSegmentmillion tmillion tGrowth driversOutlook(vs.IRENA)Decarb targets,e.g.,IMO Safe,infrastructure easy handlingH2 chainChemicalsMaritimeAutoAviationPower FC-vehicles in PC limited use,but potential in long-haul HD transport ASTM approval for MtJ required Potential for bio-

18、and e-MeOH(PtL)Use for off-grid power&heat(direct of via FC solution)Competes with diesel,LPG,EtOH wind&solar power solutions Chemicals to decarbonize replacing fossil with green MeOH as feed CCS solutions in MeOH production drive robustness(blue-MeOH)Build-up of H2 chains(US,EU,ME)MeOH robust and s

19、afe H2 carrier MeOH awareness fallen behind NH3 well covered by IRENAstrong upside potential,but hurdlesSource:IRENA,Roland BergerThe outlook for methanol into 2050 is very promising.Strong additional potential in aviation and H2 long-distance transport but only if key hurdles are masteredwww.methan

20、ol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usAnalysisisevolvingintomorepractical assessments of alternativeshipping fuels and their respectiveGHG emissionsMethanol is already low on a WtTbasis(upstream)with a clear pathwayfor decarbonization based on bio-ande-methanol,on a TtW basis to 2041Methane slip and

21、 N2O slip included by2026oIngeneralLNGprovidesareasonable CO2 reductionoEnough to allow LNG to continueunabated to 2035 when FuelEUrequires deeper reductionsFossil fuels do not have to providecertification,which means they areguidedbythedefaultvaluesasdecided by the EUGHG intensity limitsAny circula

22、r methanol or CCS NG methanol will not be recognized in EUSource:ABSwww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usWtW economic impact of ETS and FuelEUETS and/or FuelEU compliance,the choices are likely to be:oBiodieseloLNGoRenewable Methanol RMCompetitivenessNG Methanol provides somebenefit but w

23、ill be reduced byETSandFuelEU,whichmeans it will be necessary toblend with RMSource:ABSwww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usTraining&standards development Green Marine has established training hubs in Asia,with seniortrainers,classrooms and onsite facilities as well as appropriategovernme

24、nt networks for certificationBasic SOLAS/IGF/STCE requirement for the Basic and Advanced IGFtrainings already in hand,modified to ensure they are methanolspecificCourses lectures materials have been finalized with courses now onoffer:Basic,Advanced,M&O,Bunkeringwww.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.o

25、rg/join-usBunkering guidelines&ISO standard Marine Methanol grade A(MMA):this is basedlargely on the IMPCA specification but with placeholdersfor additional requirements in respect of lubricity andcleanliness,as represented by the particle counting,when tests for those characteristics become general

26、lyavailable;Marine Methanol grade B(MMB):this is basedlargely on the IMPCA specification;Marine Methanol grade C(MMC):although derivedfrom the IMPCA specification some wider tolerances areprovidedinrespectofanumberofthelistedcharacteristics.www.methanol.org/join-uswww.methanol.org/join-usMethanol fu

27、eled fleet:No Silver Bullet!Source:Clarksons,Maersk,MIMost Ship Types Containers,Bulk carriers,Chemical Tankers,Ferries,harbour craft,dredge,OSV,VLCCs,Car CarriersRetrofits now being launched25In Operation165On OrderMethanol DF vessels8MMaersk Next Generation Design1200Fuel Oil LNG LPG Methanol Ammonia H2 Battery NuclearDont sacrifice good for excellentwww.methanol.org/join-us