【公司研究】瑞普生物-大產品、大客戶戰略推進市占率有望繼續提升-20200622[33頁].pdf

1、 / 2019 H5+H72019 2.6201918% 2020 8%130 2020500 H5+H7 2020H5+H7 29202061211 3H5+H7 2019H5+H7 9.6% 2019 H5+H7 202020212.42 3.21PE34.8626.36 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,190 1,467 1,783 2,182 2,339 (+/-)% 13.61% 23.26% 21.56% 22.38% 7.22% 119 194 242 321 355 (+/-)% 13.43% 63.36% 24.73% 32.24% 10.67

2、% 0.29 0.48 0.60 0.79 0.88 25.53 30.07 34.86 26.36 23.82 1.51 2.75 3.67 3.22 2.84 (%) 5.92% 9.16% 10.52% 12.22% 11.91% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% () 404 404 404 404 404 2020/6/18 6 22.80 20.56 12 10.7121.06 8,316 404 A 404 B/H 0/0 10 -8% 9% 26% 43% 60% 77% 2019/62019/92019/122020/3 % 1M 3M 12

3、M 14% 49% 75% 11% 38% 65% 3001192020 -20200427 -20200401 202012 -20200323 S0550519010002 010-58034576 li_ 300119 2020-06-22 2 / 33 1. . 5 2. . 6 2.1. 6 2.2. 8 2.3. 12 2.4. 13 3. . 14 3.1. . 14 3.2. . 14 3.3. . 15 4. 15 5. . 16 5.1. 16 5.2. . 17 6. . 21 6.1. 21 6.2. 21 7. . 23 7.1. 23 7.2.H5+H7. 24 7

4、.3.H5+H7 . 25 7.4. 26 8. . 26 8.1. 26 8.2. . 27 8.3. . 28 9. . 29 3 / 33 1 . 6 2 . 7 3 . 8 4 . 8 5 . 10 6 .11 7 .11 8 .11 9 .11 10 . 12 11/ . 12 12 . 12 13 . 13 14. 16 15 . 16 162012-2017 . 16 172012-2017 . 17 1810 . 18 1910 . 19 2010 . 19 212013-2017 . 19 222013-2017 . 19 2310 . 19 24. 20 2510 . 20

5、 26. 21 27 . 21 28. 22 29. 22 302015-2017. 22 31 . 22 32 . 22 332019 . 27 342019 . 27 35. 28 362019 . 28 372019 . 29 38/2019 . 29 39/2019 . 29 1 . 9 22018 . 17 42017 . 24 4 / 33 5H5+H7 . 25 6H5+H7 . 25 7 . 27 5 / 33 1. 2019H5+H7 H5+H72019 2.6201918% 2013-2017 20208%130 2020500 H5+H7 2020H5+H729 2020

6、61211H5+H7 2019 H5+H79.6% 2019 2019 (H5+H7), (H5+H7) H5+H7 202020212.423.21 PE34.8626.36 6 / 33 2. 2.1. 280 19982010961998 2001 2002 20072008 2010-2015 1 202033141.4% 2.76%1.28% 7.64%3.86%2.35% 7 / 33 2 Wind 9GMP / 60 201913 GMP 50 H5+H7 H5N2 rSD57+rFJ56H7N9 rGD762019 dG2017 20196754 2477557072432.2

7、 98% 8 / 33 3 Wind 2.2. H5+H7-H9 - 2 4 9 / 33 1 H5+H7 -(H9) - / 2 10 / 33 - 2012-2019 74%-84%2019 49%-66% 40%-46% 5 Wind 11 / 33 2012-2019 2019 49.45%42.34% 6.26% 2012-2019 17%10% 2012-20188%2019 40% 6 7 Wind Wind 2015-2020Q117% 2017-20192016 8 9 Wind Wind 12 / 33 10 11/ Wind Wind 2.3. “” “” 12 13 /

8、 33 100 13 20006000 30 (H5+H7)(H5N2 rSD57+rFJ56,H7N9 rGD76)2019 (H5+H7)9000 2.4. 300 14 / 33 3. 3.1. 300 “”“ ”“”“” GLPGCP 16 CMAGLPGCP 3.2. 79 GMP31GMP79 GMP 32GMP GMP201911 30% GMP 280,170, 603030 2019, 15 / 33 , “10%” H5H9 2 3.3. 2019 , 4. 20191H5+H7 20192.99 107.71%7243145.69% H5+H72.62019 18% 20

9、1914.67 23.26%1.0927.42% 2019(H5+H7) (H5+H7) 201940% 2019(H5+H7)2.61.8 2020Q1 H5+H7 1 16 / 33 14 15 Wind Wind 5. 5.1. 20173202012-2017 7.30% 2017185.6 59% 12%30% 162012-2017 IFAH ZoetisElancoCeva BoehringerMerckBayer 17 / 33 2018ZoetisBoehringer MerckElancoIDEXX Laboratories 201850% 22018 2018 Zoeti

10、s 5,825 10% Boehringher Ingelheim Animal Health 4,677 1.5% Merck/MSD Animal Health 4,212 9% Elanco 3,067 6% IDEXX Laboratories 2,066 13% IHS Markit 5.2. 20171644473.11 35.28%2012-2017 3.36% 1644 47.63%38.32% 2017 133.64117.44180.641.43 28.25%24.82%38.17%8.76% 30% 172012-2017 2017 18 / 33 2017133.64

11、39.39%52.64; 44.6833.43% 32.9024.62% 20174 35.08%850.49% 1810 2017 201813% 2017 39.39%33.43% 20162017 42.84994 25.71%8 44.7% 2013-2017201742.61 443.93%8 60.56% 19 / 33 1910 2010 2017 2017 212013-2017 222013-2017 2017 2017 2017117.44 84.88%13.3%1.11%4 23.26%8 37% 2310 2017 20 / 33 2013-20172.5%2017 1

12、80.674.1% 9.87%3.83%4.46% 2.78%20174 11.76%820% 24 2017 2510 2017 21 / 33 6. 6.1. 2013-20173% 2013-2017 201628.44% 20136 26 27 6.2. 2019201910 41.37%201911 40%201910 2019425521%20203 19.10% 2019 1687201819413% 2019201817% 2019146.4115.51 11.9%223924512.3% 2020 36 422019 5%6%2019 2020 202021% 8%20201

13、302020 22 / 33 2020500 28 29 Wind Wind 302015-2017 Wind 31 32 23 / 33 7. 7.1. 2017-2020 20167 201635 2017 11 3 24 / 33 7.2. H5+H7 201758.6943.92% 13.9912.89 31.892018 H5H5+H72019 H5+H7 0.1-0.2/0.3 /H5+H750% 42017 / 80.04/ 13.99 21.74/ 12.89 27.85/ 31.81 20172017 2017 2017 25 / 33 2017423739118 20194

14、449 421352019201714%2017 13.9970%14% 2019H5+H727 20208% 2020 H5+H729 5H5+H7 2017 2019 2020 - 14% 8% - 70% 0% 13.99 27.11 29.28 7.3. H5+H7 2020612113H5+H7 H5+H73H5N2 rSD57+rFJ56 H7N9 rGD76 6H5+H7 1 2019/3/20 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 2 2019/1/25 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 3 2

15、019/1/25 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 4 2019/1/25 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 5 2019/1/25 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 6 2019/1/14 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 7 2019/1/14 H5N2 rSD57+rFJ56H7N9 rGD76 2020/11/30 8 2019/1/14 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/3

16、0 9 2019/1/14 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 10 2019/1/3 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 11 2019/1/3 H5N1 Re-11+Re-12H7N9 H7-Re2 2020/11/30 26 / 33 7.4. 20197.470% 1H5+H7 2 2019H5+H7 2019H5+H72.6 2019H5+H727.11 9.6%11 H5+H7 2019 2019H5+H7 40% 2019 2019(H5+H7) (H5+H7) H5+H7 8. 8.1. H5+

17、H711 H5+H7 27 / 33 7 2019 1.94 2.56 2.21 1.09 0.12 0.78 X Wind 8.2. 6 201911.4010.778.33 99.96%95.96% 60%-70% 6 82.28% 60-65%53% 5 332019 342019 Wind Wind 28 / 33 2015-201950%-60% 9%-2% 35 Wind 8.3. 201963 56 20197 362019 Wind 20196835710% 2019947918% 61.73 25%24% 29 / 33 201969% 6.9%4% 3% 372019 Wi

18、nd 38/2019 39/2019 Wind Wind 9. 20197.4170% 2.640% 201912% 6 (H5+H7)7-8 2020202120%5%2020 620202021(H5+H7) 4710%2020 30 / 33 20192021 10%202020212.423.21PE 34.8626.36 31 / 33 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 396 300 300 323 224 282 377 422 385 385 385 385 54 0 0 0 349 491 586 634 92 8

19、2 82 82 264 326 389 420 -68 0 0 0 114 163 187 201 25 26 21 7 1,508 1,666 1,847 1,964 -15 -16 -16 -16 0 0 0 0 65 -169 -79 -49 222 222 222 222 7 0 0 0 772 840 758 676 384 205 385 447 251 251 251 251 -398 -228 -84 -82 68 68 68 68 93 -73 -301 -342 2,031 2,193 2,211 2,227 -118 275 419 425 3,539 3,859 4,0

20、58 4,191 601 615 335 0 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 202 244 294 316 26 32 39 42 0.48 0.60 0.79 0.88 37 37 37 37 5.25 5.70 6.49 7.36 1,046 1,144 966 677 0.95 0.51 0.95 1.10 0 0 0 0 160 160 160 160 23.26% 21.56% 22.38% 7.22% 160 160 160 160 63.36% 24.73% 32.24% 10.67% 1,206 1,304 1,127 837 2,122 2,304 2,62

21、4 2,979 52.33% 52.81% 53.47% 53.33% 235 275 331 399 13.25% 13.60% 14.69% 15.17% 3,563 3,883 4,082 4,215 93.19 100.52 98.08 98.89 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 136.25 141.58 139.80 140.39 1,467 1,783 2,182 2,339 699 841 1,015 1,092 34.08% 33.81% 27.76% 19.97% 18 23 27 30 1.44 1.46 1.91 2.90 10 0 0 0 1.13 1.10 1.41 2.12 279 340 416 446 141 172 210 225 19.05% 19.05% 19.05% 19.05% 23 23 17 4 9.64% 9.64% 9.64% 9.64% 68 0 0 0 1.58% 1.27% 0.80% 0.16% 15 16 16 16 263 326 437 488 0.00% 25.03% 0.00% 0.00% -3 0 0 0 0.00% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 260 326 437 488 36 44 60 66 P/E 30.07 34.86 26.36 23.82 224