7.氫氣設施的三維定量風險評估-Franz Zdravistch.pdf

《7.氫氣設施的三維定量風險評估-Franz Zdravistch.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《7.氫氣設施的三維定量風險評估-Franz Zdravistch.pdf（29頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、氫氣設施的三維定量風險評估3D-QRA for Hydrogen Installations Franz ZdravistchGexcon首席培訓官兼區域經理2023年5月25日 煙臺背景Motivation氫安全工業聯合項目Hydrogen Safety JIPsFLACS-CFD軟件FLACS-CFD三維定量風險評估3D-QRA案例1Case study 1Part 01Part 02Part 03Part 04Part 05目錄ContentsPart 06案例2Case study 2Part 06結論Conclusions背景Motivation氫是綠色能源轉型過程中最重要的能源載體

2、之一。Hydrogen has become one of the most important alternatives for the green energy transition.由于氫具有極強的爆炸性和較寬的可燃范圍，氫氣設施必須遵守嚴格的安全設計和操作標準。準確的后果模擬數據對實現這一目標至關重要。Due to its high explosivity and wide flammable range,hydrogen installations must adhere to strict safety design and operational standards of des

3、ign and accurate consequence data is crucial to achieve this goal.傳統的定量風險分析(QRA)是基于二維經驗后果模型。Traditionally,Quantitative Risk Assessments(QRAs)have been performed with empirical(2D)consequence model data.隨著過去幾十年里計算能力的不斷提高，應用三維CFD技術進行QRA研究已經變得經濟實用。As computational power has increased over the last deca

4、des,QRA studies using 3D CFD technology has become practical and economical.由于考慮了三維幾何模型影響，通過使用三維后果數據可以進行更真實、更準確的風險評估。Using 3D consequence data results in more realistic and accurate risks assessments,as the 3D geometry effects are considered.Gexcon多次參與國際能源署氫能實施協議(IEA HIA)的氫安全研究重點項目。Participation to

5、key Hydrogen safety projects in the study of the International Energy Agency Hydrogen Implementing Agreement(IEA-HIA).Gexcon參與多個氫安全國際聯合工業項目(JIPs)：Participation in several Joint Industry Projects(JIPs):1.Hydrogen safety project(2001-2003)involving a large number of small-scale dispersion and explosio

6、n experiments.2.The EU-sponsored Network of Excellence HySafe(2004-2009).3.International Energy Agency(IEA)Hydrogen Implementation Agreement(HIA)Task 19 on Hydrogen Safety(2008-2010)4.International Energy Agency(IEA)Hydrogen Implementation Agreement(HIA)Task 31 on Hydrogen Safety(2011-2013)5.Interna

7、tional Energy Agency(IEA)Hydrogen Implementation Agreement(HIA)Task 37 on Hydrogen Safety(2015-2017)6.Coordinator for the EU-funded project HySEA in Horizon 2020(2015-2018)7.SH2IFT-Safe Hydrogen Fuel Handling and Use for Efficient Implementation(2018-2022)8.PRESLHY-Prenormative Research for Safe Use

8、 of Liquid Hydrogen(2018-2021)9.PILOT-E-Liquid hydrogen to decarbonize maritime transport in Norway(2019-2024)氫安全工業聯合項目Hydrogen Safety JIPsGexcon開發了計算流體力學(CFD)軟件FLACS，該軟件被認為是過程安全的行業標準，軟件已被廣泛試驗驗證，并受到世界各地的權威機構和標準的認可。Gexcon develops the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)tool FLACS-CFD,which is considere

9、d the process safety industry standard,and has been extensively validated and accepted by authorities and standards worldwide.FLACS包含分布式孔隙度概念，用于在復雜幾何環境下模擬各類場景。FLACS-CFD includes the porosity/distributed porosity(PDR)strategy for modeling scenarios with complex physics in complex geometries.FLACS涵蓋經過

10、大量驗證的爆轟模型，用于模擬氫氣爆炸等場景。FLACS-CFD includes an extensively validated detonation model for hydrogen explosions.FLACS可模擬爆炸緩解措施的解決效果，例如抗爆墻、注入惰性氣體及泄爆板等。FLACS-CFD can simulate the effects of explosion mitigation strategies,such as blast walls,injection of inert gases and pressure relief panels.FLACS作為一種工程工具

11、，可供通過培訓的工程師使用，進行流程工業的事故后果評估。FLACS-CFD is essentially an engineering tool,accessible to engineers that have attended training and used for consequence assessments in the process industry.FLACS-CFD軟件FLACS-CFD相比于傳統的二維經驗模型，三維FLACS軟件擁有諸多優點，例如：Compared with the traditional two-dimensional empirical model,

12、the three-dimensional FLACS software has many advantages,such as:1.能夠考慮實際地形、廠區的復雜幾何布局(例如設備、建筑等)對氣體擴散、爆炸、火災的影響；Can consider the influence of the actual terrain and the complex geometric layout of the factory area(such as equipment,buildings,etc.)on gas dispersion,explosion,and fire;2.可以模擬風向與泄漏方向同向、反向

13、或存在夾角的復雜場景；Can simulate complex scenarios where the wind direction is in the same direction,opposite or at an angle to the leakage direction;3.可以模擬任意風速條件的事故場景；Can simulate Accident scenarios with arbitrary wind speed conditions;FLACS軟件相較于傳統QRA工具的優勢Advantages of FLACS software compared to traditional

14、 QRA tools4.可以模擬不同可燃氣云位置和不同點火源位置的氣體爆炸場景；Can simulate gas explosion scenarios with different flammable gas cloud positions and different ignition source positions;5.能夠考慮真實擁塞區域對爆炸沖擊波的激勵效應；Can consider the excitation effect of the actual congested area on the blast shock wave;6.考慮實際建筑物或墻面對爆炸沖擊波的反射作用；Co

15、nsider the reflection of the actual building or wall to the blast shock wave;7.能夠模擬爆轟(DDT)過程。Can simulate deflagration-to-detonation(DDT)processes.FLACS軟件相較于傳統QRA工具的優勢Advantages of FLACS software compared to traditional QRA tools 8.二維軟件是根據過去經驗公式給出大致性的預測，誤差較大；三維FLACS軟件給出更符合實際情況的仿真模擬，可信度更高。The 2D soft

16、ware provides rough consequence predictions based on empirical model,it will always have conservative results;the results from 3D FLACS will be more accurate,realistic and reliability.9.二維軟件完全無法考慮安全防護措施對事故后果的影響，例如防火墻、抗爆墻、泄壓裝置等，必須采用基于三維CFD的模擬工具進行分析，例如FLACS軟件。The 2D software cannot consider the effect

17、s of mitigation measure on consequence,such as firewall,blast wall and pressure vent device etc.It needs to be analyzed using advanced 3D CFD tools,such as FLACS.基于三維CFD模擬工具的QRA分析方法更符合實際情況，能夠呈現更加精確詳細的風險結果(可得到任一建筑物、裝置、墻面等關注目標的超越曲線、個人風險等值線和社會風險F-N曲線等)。The QRA analysis methodology based on three-dimens

18、ional CFD simulation tools is more in line with the actual situation and can present more accurate and detailed risk results(which can obtain the transcendence curve of any target of interests,Individual risk contour,and Societal risk F-N curve).FLACS軟件相較于傳統QRA工具的優勢Advantages of FLACS software compa

19、red to traditional QRA tools水平噴射火模擬，無防火墻（防護措施）Horizontal Jet Fire simulation without firewall(mitigation measure)水平噴射火模擬，有防火墻（防護措施），展示出遮擋屏蔽效應Horizontal Jet Fire simulation with firewall(mitigation measure)showing shadowing Effect在Gexcon的試驗場地上，就現實生活中的爆炸試驗對FLACS進行了廣泛驗證。FLACS has been extensively valid

20、ated against real-life explosion experiments at Gexcons test site.充滿21%氫氣云的20英尺集裝箱。20ft container filled with a 21%Hydrogen gas cloud.FLACS-CFD 氫氣爆炸驗證FLACS-CFD H2 Explosion Validation由于氫氣較大的層流燃燒速率，更容易引發爆轟現象。Gexcon公司始終致力于爆轟現象的研究，與斯坦福國際研究院(SRI International)合作組建大型試驗基地，開展大量試驗用于爆轟現象的研究，并提高FLACS模擬預測爆轟現象的

21、能力。Due to the larger laminar burning rate of hydrogen,it is easier to cause DDT phenomenon.Gexcon cooperated with Stanford Research Institute International(SRI International)to set up a large-scale test base,carry out a large number of experiments for the research of DDT phenomenon,and improve the a

22、bility of FLACS simulation to predict DDT phenomenon.火焰速度Flame Speed峰值超壓Peak Pressure爆燃Deflagration500-1000 m/s不超過數barUp to several bar 爆轟Detonation1500-2000 m/s可達到15-20 barCan reach 15-20 barFLACS-CFD 爆轟大規模試驗FLACS-CFD DDT Large Scale test氫氣爆炸驗證：Hydrogen explosion validations:最大壓力(Barg)：模擬結果對比試驗結果Ma

23、ximum pressures(Barg):Simulations vs experimental results 爆燃和爆轟案例Deflagration and detonation cases爆轟模擬功能是FLACS所擁有的獨特功能，已經過大規模試驗驗證。The detonation modelling is the unique function of FLACS,which has been verified by large-scale experiments.爆轟驗證DDT Validations水平天然氣/氫氣噴射火Horizontal Natural Gas/Hydrogen

24、Jet Fires不同泄漏孔徑噴射火試驗與模擬結果對比Jet fire validation against different leak hole sizeFLACS-CFD 氫氣火災驗證FLACS-CFD H2 Fire Validation常用QRA分析方法基于二維經驗模型進行分析，通常得到較為保守的風險分析結果，往往會面臨不符合風險基準，需采取額外風險減緩措施的情況。The traditional QRA methodology is based on 2D empirical model.It always has a conservative risk results which

25、do not meet the risk standard.And it requires additional risk mitigation measures.由于二維經驗模型無法評估新增安全措施的有效性(例如防火墻、通風、防爆設計等)，這種情況需采用基于CFD的三維QRA方法進行深入分析。The 2D empirical model can not evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures(such as firewalls,ventilation,explosion-proof design,etc.).It is necess

26、ary to have an advanced analysis using the 3D QRA method.因此采用三維QRA分析方法，能得到更符合實際事故場景的計算結果。Therefore,using 3D QRA methodology,the obtained calculation results can be more in line with the actual situation.常用QRA分析方法Traditional QRA methodologyEFFECTS經驗分析工具Empirical modeling toolFLACSCFD modeling toolCFD

27、模擬工具RISKCURVES獨立風險計算軟件Standalone risk calculator場景定義Scenario identification后果分析Consequence Analysis定量風險分析(QRA)Quantitative Risk Assessment(QRA)風險是否可接受？Risk acceptance criteria met?有效風險減緩措施Effective risk mitigation measures基于CFD場景的后果模擬Consequence modelling of CFD scenarios報告生成Report production性能保證Per

28、formance assurance否No進階分析Advanced Analysis常規分析Standard Analysis導入或搭建三維幾何模型。Importing or constructing 3D geomety model.在三維模型中識別和記錄有害物質存量。Identifying and registering inventory of hazardous materials in virtual 3D model.在三維模型中識別和記錄主要安全措施。Identifying and registering main safety functions in virtual 3D m

29、odel.在三維模型中識別和記錄潛在點火源。Identifying and registering potential ignition sources in virtual 3D model.在三維模型中記錄人員密度。Registering personnel densities in virtual 3D model.記錄相關邊界條件：風玫瑰圖，相關規范和標準等。Registering relevant boundary conditions:wind rose,relevant codes and standards,三維定量風險評估工作流程3D-QRA Process workflow

30、模擬選定的場景(自動化過程)：Simulating selected scenarios(automated process):通風模擬 初始條件Wind simulations initial conditions for 泄漏和擴散場景(可燃或有毒氣體)初始條件Release and dispersion scenarios(flammable/toxic)initial conditions for 噴射火和池火場景Jet and pool fire scenarios,and 氣體爆炸場景Gas explosion scenarios 不斷升級的事故場景Escalating accid

31、ent scenarios預測物理參數對人員造成的影響(傷害)。Estimating the effect(harm)on personnel caused by physical parameters(personnel risk).在三維模型中進行計算和可視化風險等高線。Calculating and visualizing risk contours in the virtual 3D model.分析結果，實施風險緩解措施，更新計算。Analyzing result,implementing risk-reducing measures,updating calculation.泄漏源

32、：飛機下方Leak:under plane假設純液態氫處于5 bargAssume pure liquid hydrogen at 5 barg假設所有液體蒸發(無液池形成)Assume all liquid vaporises(no pool formation)泄漏尺寸25mm25mm leak size泄漏發生在飛機下方的軟管連接處Leak occurs at plane-hose connection案例研究 1：飛機氫燃料加注時的危險 Case Study 1:Aircraft refueling hazards 氫氣擴散Hydrogen Dispersion泄漏位置位于飛機下方的軟

33、管連接處Leak occurs at plane-hose connection under plane顯示氣體濃度高于可燃下限濃度Gas concentration display on the video is above the LFL氫氣爆炸Hydrogen Explosion泄漏后形成可燃氣云的爆炸模擬Flammable cloud explosion simulation after leakage通過溫度場表示爆炸火焰的傳播Display the explosion flame through temperature distribution區域Area人口Population白

34、天Day夜晚Night加氣區Refueling area124商店/快餐店Shop/Cafeterial2212氫氣裝置H2 Unit52居民區Residents100320通用型加氫站：100公斤/天Generic filling station:100 kg/day 20英尺ISO集裝箱中的壓縮機將氫氣從長管拖車壓縮到高壓儲罐。Compressor in 20 ft.ISO container compresses hydrogen from tube trailer to high-pressure storage tanks.案例2：通用型加氫站Case Study 2:Generic

35、 H2 Filling Station通過簡化的故障樹和事件樹選定事故場景：Simplified fault trees and event trees for selected accident scenarios:擴散模擬：Dispersion simulations:用于預估典型氣云尺寸Used to estimate typical gas cloud size categories 氣體爆炸模擬：Gas explosion simulations:計算爆炸超壓 Calculate over pressures 噴射火模擬：Jet fire simulations:計算熱載荷Calcu

36、late heat loads案例2：通用型加氫站Case Study 2:Generic H2 Filling Station常見通用加氫站幾何模型A generic H2 filling station geometry model主要包含加氣區、商店及氫氣裝置區Including refueling area,shop and hydrogen unit area集裝箱內壓縮裝置熱交換器高壓儲罐/緩沖罐 中壓儲罐 加油站商店及快餐店 加氫機加油機(汽油/柴油)制冷機氣體爆炸場景Gas explosion scenario氫氣裝置區爆炸場景后果模擬示例Explosion consequen

37、ce modelling in hydrogen unit area同時展示爆炸火焰及壓力的分布Display the explosion flame and explosion overpressure distribution0.01頻率大于10-5/年的超壓等值線圖Over-pressure contours:f 10-5 yr-1頻率超過10-5/年的爆炸超壓分布Explosion overpressure contours for frequency exceeding 10-5 yr-1考慮所有爆炸場景的后果及發生頻率Generated by combine all the exp

38、losion consequence with frequency of potential explosion accidents超壓大于0.2bar的頻率等值線圖Frequency contours:P 0.2 bar 頻率等值線(顯示頻率范圍10-07/年至10-03/年)，超過0.2 bar的爆炸超壓分布Frequency contours,from 10-07 to 10-03 yr-1,for 0.2 bar overpressure考慮所有爆炸場景的后果及發生頻率Generated by combine all the explosion consequence with fre

39、quency of potential explosion accidents頻率大于10-5/年的熱輻射等值線圖Heat radiation levels:f 10-5 yr-1頻率超過10-5/年的火災熱輻射分布Fire heat radiation contours for frequency exceeding 10-5 yr-1考慮所有火災場景的后果及發生頻率Generated by combine all the fire consequence with frequency of potential fire accident熱輻射大于5 kW/m2的頻率等值線圖Frequenc

40、y contours:Qrad 5 kW m-2頻率等值線(顯示頻率范圍10-05/年至510-04/年)，超過5 kW/m2的火災熱輻射分布Frequency contours,from 10-05 to 510-04 yr-1,for 5 kW m-2 heat radiation考慮所有火災場景的后果及發生頻率Generated by combine all the fire consequence with frequency of potential fire accident個人風險等值線 噴射火和爆炸Individual risk jet fire and explosion整體

41、個人風險等值線Total LSIR contours distribution包含所有的噴射火場景及氣體爆炸場景Including all the jet fire scenarios and explosion scenarios1.00E-091.00E-081.00E-071.00E-061.00E-051.00E-041.00E-031.00E-021.00E-011.00E+00110100100010000Frequency/yrNumber of FatalitiesF-N curve社會風險FN曲線 噴射火和爆炸Societal Risk FN curve jet fire a

42、nd explosion整體社會風險FN曲線圖FN curves for societal risk展示所有的噴射火場景及氣體爆炸場景對加氫站及周邊人員的影響Illustrate influence of the jet fire scenario and explosion scenario to population nearbyGexcon模擬工具FLACS-CFD軟件已被用于在加氫站進行QRA研究：Gexcons modeling tool FLACS-CFD has been used to perform QRA studies in a H2 filling station:每個

43、特定設施都考慮了幾何模型影響，例如擁塞區域和受限空間：Geometry effects,like congestion and confinement,are taken into consideration for each specific facility:因此，與使用經驗后果模擬工具相比，FLACS可提供更準確的模擬結果(考慮真實地形、障礙物、風速、風向等)。Therefore,unique results that provide higher accuracy compared to using empirical consequence modeling tools(Consid

44、er real terrain,obstacles,wind speed,wind direction,etc.).三維研究可為以下方面提供相關信息：3D studies provide relevant information for:執行危險區域分類Performing Hazardous area classification 氣體探測系統優化 Gas detection systems optimization 應急預案和應急響應Emergency preparedness and emergency response三維可視化結果是向操作人員和業主直觀展示風險的有效工具。3D visualization results are an effective tool to communicate risks to operators and key stakeholders.結論Conclusions感謝觀看！Thank you！021-58852770