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1、JJJMay 2023ResearchBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewQuarterly Report Q1 202301JJJ Macroeconomic Overview02JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview03JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local B

2、ureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformRegional OverviewBeijingHebeiTianjinJJJs Share in Chinas Total GDP,Q1 20238.3%JJJs Share in Chinas Total Population,20227.8%PRDs Share in Chinas Import&Export Volume,Q1 202315.6%JJJs Share in Chinas Total Retail Sales,Q1 20237.3%YoY Nominal Gro

3、wth,Q1 2023+5.3%Growth vs 22Q1CAGR,Q1 2019-Q1 2023+6.2%Growth vs 22Q1JJJs Overall EconomyKept Growing Rapidly in Q1 2023JJJs GDP,2019-Q1 2023(Billion RMB)04JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform1

4、,8611,7752,1072,2512,3702.0712,1162,4212,4282,1532,2762,4952,5622,3632,4732,6122,78820192020202120222023Q1Q2Q3Q4JJJs Retail Sales Increased Rapidly in Q1 2023YoY Nominal Growth,Q1 2023+4.2%Growth vs 22Q1CAGR,Q1 2019-Q1 2023+1.0%Growth vs 22Q1JJJs Retail Sales,2019-Q1 2023(Billion RMB)05JJJ Non-bonde

5、d Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform8106147898088428338038047748827878047831,03296995074420192020202120222023Q1Q2Q3Q4JJJs Secondary Sector Recorded a Slight Decrease in Q1 2023YoY Nominal Growth,Q1 2023-1.3

6、%Growth vs 22Q1CAGR,Q1 2019-Q1 2023+0.8%Growth vs 22Q1Value Added of Secondary Sector of the JJJ,2019-Q1 2023(Billion RMB)06JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform618453573647639691620737718622640

7、77678749269986381820192020202120222023Q1Q2Q3Q4JJJs Freight Turnover Increased Dramatically in Q1 2023YoY Growth,Q1 2023+11.2%Growth vs 22Q1CAGR,Q1 2019-Q1 2023+2.4%Growth vs 22Q1Freight Turnover of JJJ,2019-Q1 2023(Billion Ton-km)07JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:N

8、ational and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform23817224923526129629032428930032830730530332029827620192020202120222023Q1Q2Q3Q4Key Indicators of the One Province and Two Cities in JJJ08JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National and Local Bu

9、reaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformBeijingHebeiTianjinLegendGDP(Billion RMB)&YoY Real GrowthImport&Export Volume(Billion RMB)&YoY Nominal GrowthRetail Sales(Billion RMB)&YoY Nominal GrowthBeijings Share in JJJs Import&Export Volume,Q1 202360%YoY Nominal Growth of Import&Export Vo

10、lume in Tianjin,Q1 2023+24%As the key powerhouse of the regions economy,Beijing accounted for over 40%of JJJs total GDP and retail sales and contributed 60%of JJJs total import&export volume.Import&export in Tianjin has seen 24%growth,highest in China in Q1 2023.The volume of import&export,export,im

11、port all reached a historical high for the same period.995(+3.1%)899(+11.6%)356(-0.7%)372(+5.5%)498(+24.0%)135(+6.5%)1,004(+5.1%)143(+17.0%)351(+8.7%)Overall Population Attractiveness of JJJ Decreased Gradually in 2010 202009JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National

12、 and Local Bureaus of Statistics,ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform2005-2010Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the JJJInbound migration from all provincial-level regions except Shanghai and Guangdong surpassed outbound migration.2015-2020Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the JJJAn increasing n

13、umber of people has moved out of the region to south-eastern coastal regions such as YRD and PRD.This indicates that JJJs economic growth is under pressure in the past decade,leading to a weakening population attractiveness.Net InflowNet OutflowThe Population Attractiveness of JJJ Further Weakened i

14、n 2021Beijing21.89(-0.02%)1,379.4(-7.2%)Langfang5.54(+0.95%)141.0(+0.5%)Tianjin13.73(-0.98%)357.3(-5.2%)Baoding9.20(-0.51%)172.2(+1.3%)Population in 2021(Million)28.00,35.00)21.00,28.00)14.00,21.00)7.00,14.00)0.00,7.00)Retail Sales in 2022(Billion RMB)1,200,1,800)900,1,200)600,900)300,600)0,300)YRDS

15、hanghaiJiaxingNingboNanjingShaoxingHangzhouNantongHefeiSuzhouWuxiChengyuChengduMeishanChongqingPRDZhaoqingHuizhouDongguanGuangzhouFoshanJiangmenShenzhenZhongshanLegendPopulation Size(Million)and YoY Change Rate in 2021Retail Sales(Billion RMB)and YoY Nominal Change Rate in 2022TIer-1 CitySatellite C

16、ityTIer-2 CityTIer-3 City10JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform based on publicly available information02JJJs LogisticsMarket11JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewThe scope of study of this section covers key l

17、ogistics markets in JJJ,namely Beijing,Tianjin,Langfang and BaodingTianjin7.87Beijing2.37Langfang1.98Baoding0.29Baoding0.29Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Stock Floor Area(Million sqm)5.00,10.002.00,5.00)1.00,2.00)0.00,1.00)Stock DistributionTianjin Supply Remains High,Langfang and Beijing Facing New S

18、upplyShare of Tianjins stock in regional total63%Tianjins stock surpassed 7 million sqm,3.3 times of that in Beijing7million sqm3.3Times12JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformOverall rent level of JJJ in Q1 decreased by 1.0%YoY1.24 RMB

19、/sqm/day4 out of 4 key logistics markets in JJJ registered QoQ drop4/4 CitiesRentAll JJJ Markets Registered QoQ Drop in Q113JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)and QoQ Change,Q1 20231.50,2.501.20,1.50)1.00,1.2

20、0)0.00,1.00)Langfang1.23-5.7%Langfang1.23-5.7%Beijing2.06-0.3%Beijing2.06-0.3%Tianjin0.97-1.1%Tianjin0.97-1.1%Baoding0.89-5.0%Baoding0.89-5.0%OccupancyAll JJJ Cities Registered QoQ Increase in Q1 Overall occupancy rate of JJJ in Q4 increased by 4.0 pp YoY+4.0pp4 out of 4 key logistics markets in JJJ

21、 registered QoQ increase4/4 Cities14JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformAverage Occupancy Rate and QoQ Change,Q1 202390.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)Tianjin77.4%+2.6ppTianjin77.4%+2.6ppBaoding78.5%+2.0ppBaoding78.5%+2.0

22、ppLangfang64.1%+13.2ppLangfang64.1%+13.2ppBeijing90.5%+1.9ppBeijing90.5%+1.9ppCap RatesAll JJJ Cities Increased in Q115JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformCap Rate and QoQ Change,Q1 20234.50%,5.00%)5.00%,5.25%)5.25%,5.75%)5.75%,6.50%T

23、ianjin5.27%-7 bpTianjin5.27%-7 bpBeijing4.66%-6 bpBeijing4.66%-6 bpBaoding5.8%-6 bpBaoding5.8%-6 bpLangfang5.14%-6 bpLangfang5.14%-6 bpMode of JJJ Cap Rate QoQ Change -6bp.4 out of 4 key logistics markets in PRD registered QoQ drop4/4 CitiesLogistics Market Key TransactionsWith the steady economic r

24、ecovery and the relaxation of COVID restrictions,market uncertainties gradually became clearer and demand for logistics leasing in China began to recover gradually since Q1 2023.However,as landlords and occupiers hold different expectations on rental pricing,the leasing market is stuck in a stalemat

25、e,which causes investors to continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.Chinas logistics real estate en-bloc transactions were relatively underwhelming overall in Q1 2023,and no logistics real estate en-bloc transactions were recorded in JJJ.Looking ahead,in the short term,the overall logistics leasin

26、g market in the JJJ region will be dominated by the theme of destocking,especially in Tianjin and Langfang,where rental growth is under pressure due to the pressure of larger inventory as well as new supply:Beijing,due to its special status and excellent leasing market performance,is believed to rem

27、ain a key focus city for investors in the future.16JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management Platform based on publicly available informationDateNameLocationNo.of AssetsGFA(sqm)Volume of Transaction(RMB mn)SellerBuyerCap RateMar.2022Portfolio of hi

28、gh-quality logistics industrial assets in the YRDYRDN/A450,0002,300Overseas well-knowndevelopment companyGaolu6.00%+Feb.2023NWS acquires a 90%stake in Suzhou Industrial ParkSuzhou175,000Leasable Area513ZhongjiNWSN/AJuly 2022ESR GIC Prime Logistics and Industrial PortfolioDongguan,Wuhan,Changsha,Chon

29、gqing,Nanjing,Wuxi,Shenyang,Tianjin9873,000Balance Sheet4,900ESRGIC/ESR JV5.30%-5.80%June 2022SC Capital Morgan Stanley PortfolioNantong,Taicang,Jiaxing3210,770850SC CapitalMorgan Stanley5.30%May 2022Goodman NWS Logistics PortfolioChengdu,Wuhan6531,0002,290GoodmanNWS5.50%-6.00%May 2022Dongbai Link L

30、ogistics PortfolioChangshu,Jiaxing3192,144947DongbaiGroupLink5.10%-5.50%March 20222 Logistics Parks of China South CityHefei,Zhengzhou2405,7001,710China South CityShenzhen IntlN/AFebruary 2022DLJ Greater Shanghai Logistics PortfolioShanghai,Suzhou,Kunshan,Taicang,Hangzhou11558,3344,500DLJGIC/ESR JV4

31、.50%Beijing&Langfang Non-bonded Grade A Logistics17JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformLangfangFangshanShunyiDaxingTongzhouPingguAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)2.10,2.501.80,2.10)1.50,1.80)0.00,1.50)Average Occupancy Rate90.0%,100.0%80.0%,9

32、0.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)LangfangFangshanShunyiDaxingTongzhouPinggu1.00,2.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)LangfangShunyiTongzhouDaxingFangshanPingguNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)Sub-markets,Q1 2023Tianjin Non-bonded Grade A LogisticsXiqingDongliJinnanBinhaiWuqingBaodiBeichenNingheAverage Rent(RMB/s

33、qm/day)1.20,1.501.00,1.20)0.80,1.00)0.00,0.80)18JJJ Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformBinhaiWuqingBeichenDongliNingheBaodiJinnanXiqingAverage Occupancy Rate90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)XiqingDongliJinnanBinhaiWuqingBao

34、diBeichenNinghe1.00,2.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)Non-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)Sub-markets,Q1 2023Baoding Non-bonded Grade A LogisticsAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)XushuiZhuozhouNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)1.00,2.000.30,1.00)0.00,0.30)1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)19JJJ Non-bonded G

35、rade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Asset Management PlatformXushuiZhuozhouAverage Occupancy Rate90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)XushuiZhuozhouSub-markets,Q1 202303Summary&Outlook1 MacroThe economy of the JJJ region resumed faster growth in Q1 of 2023 and real

36、ized a good start overall.In the first quarter,the consumer market in the JJJ region achieved a faster recovery,with total retail sales growth to a level higher than that of the same period in 2019;In addition,total imports&exports in the JJJ region achieved a rapid growth compared with the same per

37、iod last year;However,the growth of the real economy in the JJJ region slowed down,with the value added of the secondary industry recording a negative growth YOY in Q1.3 Leasing PerformanceThe overall rent level of the JJJ city cluster in Q1 remained basically stable compared to the previous quarter

38、,while the overall occupancy rate increased by 4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.As the current logistics real estate leasing market is stuck in a stalemate,leasing demand has not been fully released,it is expected that in the short term,as some landlords tend to be more flexible

39、in their rental pricing strategies,stimulating rental expansion and new rental demand,while the rental level may be slightly downward.2DemandSince 2023,the rebound of the JJJ economy,especially the faster growth of the consumer market and imports&exports,has contributed to a certain extent to the gr

40、owth of the local logistics real estate market demand.However,as the overall population attraction of JJJ is not as attractive as other key city groups such as YRD and PRD,the speed of recovery of its social retail sales is not yet as fast as the above two city clusters.In addition,the impact of a l

41、arge number of new supply makes some leasing parties have lower expectations of rents,while the landlord is not yet willing to take the initiative to give up the rental price,JJJ logistics real estate market into a stalemate,the expansion of rent and new lease demand is suppressed to a certain exten

42、t.4InvestmentThe cap rates of all major logistics markets in the JJJ city cluster recorded a slight decline in the quarter.With the national logistics bulk transaction market in the doldrums,JJJ also faced the same problem,with no logistics real estate bulk transactions recorded in JJJ in Q1 2023.Lo

43、oking ahead,in the short term,the overall logistics leasing market in the JJJ region will remain dominated by destocking,especially in Tianjin and Langfang.However,Beijing is expected to remain a key city for investors due to its special status and good rental market performance.20JJJ Non-bonded Gra

44、de A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewScan&subscribe to stay tunedAbout ZhenliangDeveloped by JLL Valuation team,ZhenLiang Platform based on more than 30 years of real estate valuation practice and over 300 valuers,helping real estate professionals gain insight into the business environment and

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49、n any way,transmitted to,copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of Shanghai Jialiang.If need to repost or quote this report,please cite the source and include this statement in its Contact UsAuthorGeorge XiongJones Lang Lasalle Zhenliang Asset Management PlatformSpokespersonJSigrid ZhouJones Lang Lasalle Zhenliang Asset Management PlatformDirector,Head of Zhenliang AcademyS