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1、 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 證券研究報告|行業專題研究 2024 年 05 月 11 日 輕工制造輕工制造 出口持續改善，內需結構分化出口持續改善，內需結構分化 大宗紙：旺季需求改善，提價落地，盈利環比改善。大宗紙：旺季需求改善，提價落地，盈利環比改善。1）漿紙系：旺季需求改善疊加成本上升驅動提價落地，漿紙同漲共驅盈利修復，其中太陽紙太陽紙業業憑借原材料戰略布局優勢及成本管控能力，盈利表現超預期；2）廢紙系：下游需求復蘇、產業庫存低位驅動提價窄幅落地。預計 24Q2 文化紙價格維穩、白卡預計低位震蕩，漿紙系噸盈利預計呈下滑態勢；廢紙價格Q2 預計延續磨底，產銷量改善情況

2、下龍頭噸盈利有望小幅改善。此外，龍頭產能擴張接近尾聲，行業逐步進入 Capex 下行周期。推薦太陽紙業太陽紙業，關注玖龍紙業、山鷹國際、博匯紙業、岳陽林紙、晨鳴紙業玖龍紙業、山鷹國際、博匯紙業、岳陽林紙、晨鳴紙業等。特種紙：成本穩定、提價落地，盈利復蘇。特種紙：成本穩定、提價落地，盈利復蘇。受益于低價漿入庫，企業成本上升較為平滑，疊加 23Q3 紙企逐步提價，盈利穩步修復。展望未來，仙仙鶴股份、五洲特紙、冠豪高新鶴股份、五洲特紙、冠豪高新 Q2 均價向上、成本可控，噸盈利預計高位穩定；華旺科技華旺科技受行業供給增加影響，價盤預計穩定，噸盈利小幅承壓。此外，根據我們測算，2023 年行業 CR9

3、 為 61.0%（同比+3.3pct），龍頭憑規模、產業鏈一體化布局等強化成本優勢，行業集中度預計持續提升。推薦仙鶴股份、華旺科技、五洲特紙仙鶴股份、華旺科技、五洲特紙，關注冠豪高新、恒達新材、齊峰新冠豪高新、恒達新材、齊峰新材材等。傳統家居：地產壓力逐步傳導，經營分化加速。傳統家居：地產壓力逐步傳導，經營分化加速。地產壓力逐步顯現，竣工進入下行周期，渠道客流量下降明顯，上下游整合和存量房市場擴張成為核心命題，歐派歐派率先開啟零售大家居探索（硬裝+定制+軟裝），且家居龍頭加速探索舊改市場。軟體家居裝修節奏較為滯后且更新需求占比較高，整體表現優于定制，其中床墊龍頭表現更為突出；從訂單節奏來看，預

4、計 Q2 地產壓力將進一步顯現，多品類協同提效或更新品類占比較高品類增長有望保持領先。23Q4 喜臨門、志邦家居喜臨門、志邦家居收入增長領先（同比+24.4%、+16.9%）；24Q1 低基數下普遍呈現增長態勢，慕思股份、喜慕思股份、喜臨門、索菲亞臨門、索菲亞增長領先（同比+25.5%、+20.0%、+17.0%）。長期布局的底部位置正在模糊出現，持續關注渠道變革能力突出的公司以及更新需求占比較高的品類，推薦顧家家居、志邦家居、歐派家居、索菲亞、喜臨顧家家居、志邦家居、歐派家居、索菲亞、喜臨門、慕思股份、敏華控股、金牌廚柜門、慕思股份、敏華控股、金牌廚柜等。智能家居：國產替代趨勢延續，價格競爭

5、激烈。智能家居：國產替代趨勢延續，價格競爭激烈。2023 年智能坐便器線上零售額同比+10.0%，24Q1 同比-20.0%；行業以價換量（2019-24Q1 智能一體機行業均價由近 2700 元下探至 2000 元+），內資品牌依托生產制造&渠道優勢，加碼布局輕智能產品滲透下沉市場。23Q4 箭牌家居/瑞爾特/好太太收入同比+5.4%、+11.3%、+53.0%，24Q1 分別同比+2.3%、+32.3%、+5.7%，其中瑞爾特、好太太瑞爾特、好太太產品結構升級，盈利表現更為優異，推薦瑞爾特、好太太瑞爾特、好太太等，關注箭牌家居箭牌家居等。出口：訂單延續改善，品牌出口：訂單延續改善，品牌&供

6、應鏈加速出海。供應鏈加速出海。受益于海外庫存優化、客戶訂單修復，出口公司 2023 年收入逐季改善、24Q1 低基數下業績靚麗，其中恒林股份、匠心家居、嘉益股份恒林股份、匠心家居、嘉益股份等受益于下游客戶份額提升、自身加 增持增持（維持維持）行業行業走勢走勢 作者作者 分析師分析師 姜文鏹姜文鏹 執業證書編號：S0680523040001 郵箱： 相關研究相關研究 1、輕工制造：美國降息預期推遲，內需企穩修復，布局結構成長機會2024-04-07 2、輕工制造：美國地產數據超預期，國內漿紙同漲2024-03-25 3、輕工制造：出口專題：全球布局、落地生根，品牌出海、征途在前2024-03-2

7、5 -32%-16%0%16%2023-052023-082023-122024-05輕工制造滬深300 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.2 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 速渠道&品牌擴展，增長趨勢優于同行。展望未來，2024Q2 各公司訂單環比/同比預計均維系穩健增長，盡管海外降息預期推遲致復蘇預期推遲，但整體庫存低位、需求韌性突出，年內需求或保持平穩。持續關注有能力上修業績預期或成長邏輯加強的公司，推薦恒林股份、永藝股份、匠心家恒林股份、永藝股份、匠心家居、嘉益股份居、嘉益股份，關注哈爾斯、建霖家居、西大門、致歐科技、濤濤車業、哈爾斯、建霖家居、西大門、致歐科技、

8、濤濤車業、浩洋股份、共創草坪、松霖科技、家聯科技、麒盛科技、夢百合、浙江自浩洋股份、共創草坪、松霖科技、家聯科技、麒盛科技、夢百合、浙江自然、久祺股份、盈趣科技、樂歌股份、天振股份然、久祺股份、盈趣科技、樂歌股份、天振股份等。消費：復蘇延續分化，關注結構性成長。消費：復蘇延續分化，關注結構性成長。23Q4&24Q1 社零整體表現平穩，國貨品牌受益于消費結構性變化。文具行業溫和復蘇、動銷穩健，紙巾受益于 2023 年漿價回落，衛生巾行業渠道變革、新品迭出，鏡片行業競爭漸顯、功能性占比提升趨勢延續，寵物海外代工延續改善、品牌持續高增；公司層面，公牛、乖寶公牛、乖寶競爭力突出、持續強勢，百亞百亞產品

9、&渠道邏輯變革加強，晨光、倍加潔晨光、倍加潔業績持續改善。推薦公牛集團、百亞股份、晨光股份、公牛集團、百亞股份、晨光股份、倍加潔倍加潔等，關注博士眼鏡、明月鏡片、乖寶寵物、中寵股份、佩蒂股份、博士眼鏡、明月鏡片、乖寶寵物、中寵股份、佩蒂股份、豪悅護理、依依股份、齊心集團、源飛寵物、天元寵物、康耐特光學豪悅護理、依依股份、齊心集團、源飛寵物、天元寵物、康耐特光學等。包裝：溫和復蘇延續，盈利表現分化。包裝：溫和復蘇延續，盈利表現分化。1）塑料包裝：增長穩健、盈利平穩，永新股份永新股份 24Q1 彩印價格承壓、銷量穩健增長，薄膜快速放量；2）紙包裝：需求回暖、盈利分化，裕同科技裕同科技 3C 基本盤

10、持續恢復，煙包&環保包裝趨勢向好，新巨豐新巨豐下游需求延續弱復蘇，大勝達大勝達傳統包裝延續平穩、煙酒包裝逐步改善；3）金屬包裝：三片罐增長穩健、盈利改善，二片罐競爭激烈、盈利承壓，龍頭企業并購整合加速。推薦永新股份、裕同科技永新股份、裕同科技，關注昇昇興股份、新巨豐、奧瑞金、大勝達、上海艾錄興股份、新巨豐、奧瑞金、大勝達、上海艾錄等。風險提示風險提示：消費復蘇不及預期，地產超預期下滑，漿價波動低于預期。重點標的重點標的 股票股票 股票股票 投資投資 EPS（元）（元）P E 代碼代碼 名稱名稱 評級評級 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 202

11、6E 003006.SZ 百亞股份 買入 0.55 0.71 0.91 1.20 41.09 31.83 24.84 18.83 002078.SZ 太陽紙業 買入 1.10 1.37 1.62 1.75 14.21 11.41 9.65 8.93 603195.SH 公牛集團 買入 4.34 4.98 5.75 6.64 28.42 24.77 21.45 18.58 603816.SH 顧家家居 買入 2.44 2.70 2.99 3.33 14.34 12.96 11.71 10.51 603733.SH 仙鶴股份 買入 0.94 1.52 2.04 2.56 20.40 12.62 9

12、.40 7.49 603661.SH 恒林股份 買入 1.89 3.93 4.68 5.53 25.16 12.10 10.16 8.60 603600.SH 永藝股份 買入 0.89 1.00 1.24 1.48 13.57 12.08 9.74 8.16 301061.SZ 匠心家居 買入 3.18 3.85 4.71 5.53 22.43 18.53 15.15 12.90 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 9WbUfVeU8XeZeUeU9P8Q6MoMnNpNqMfQqQrMfQrQnRbRnMmMuOnNzRMYpMpP 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.3 請仔細閱讀本報告

13、末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 內容目錄內容目錄 1 板塊估值底部，基金重倉環比下行.6 2 穩健成長的高股息資產價值凸顯.8 3 造紙：需求回暖、提價落地，盈利逐步改善.9 3.1 大宗紙：需求改善，提價落地，盈利環比改善.9 3.2 特種紙：成本穩定、提價落地，盈利復蘇.13 4 家居：地產壓力傳導，家居零售化改革、智能化方興未艾.17 4.1 傳統家居：地產壓力逐步傳導，經營分化加速.17 4.2 智能家居：滲透率穩步提升，國產替代延續，價格競爭激烈.22 5 出口：訂單延續改善，品牌&供應鏈加速出海.24 6 消費：復蘇延續分化，關注結構性成長.31 7 包裝：溫和復蘇延續，盈利表現

14、分化.41 8 投資策略.43 9 風險提示.44 圖表目錄圖表目錄 圖表 1：輕工制造板塊股價走勢 VS 大盤股價走勢.6 圖表 2：輕工制造各子板塊股價走勢.6 圖表 3：輕工各板塊估值.6 圖表 4：輕工制造基金持倉比例.7 圖表 5：輕工分板塊基金持倉比例.7 圖表 6：輕工制造板塊基金重倉持股市值（億元）.7 圖表 7：造紙板塊基金重倉持股市值（億元）.8 圖表 8：家居板塊基金重倉持股市值（億元）.8 圖表 9：包裝板塊基金重倉重倉持股市值（億元）.8 圖表 10：文娛板塊基金重倉重倉持股市值（億元）.8 圖表 11：板塊高分紅公司梳理.9 圖表 12：重點造紙企業收入及利潤情況一

15、覽（百萬元，%）.10 圖表 13：重點造紙企業盈利能力一覽（%）.10 圖表 14：各細分紙種和原料價格（元/噸）.11 圖表 15：龍頭存貨梳理（億元）.12 圖表 16：龍頭紙企資本性支出開始呈收縮跡象，逐步進入 Capex 下行周期.12 圖表 17：龍頭均價、銷量、噸盈利變化.13 圖表 18：特種紙收入&利潤拆分（單位：百萬元）.14 圖表 19：特種紙盈利能力拆分（%）.14 圖表 20：原材料庫存（億元）.15 圖表 21：特種紙細分品類供需平衡表&競爭格局.15 圖表 22：行業進出口量.16 圖表 23：特紙公司出口占比.16 圖表 24：特紙行業市占率.16 圖表 25：

16、定制家居行業主要公司收入及利潤情況（百萬元，%）.17 圖表 26：軟體家居行業主要公司收入及利潤情況（百萬元，%）.18 圖表 27：定制家居公司分品類收入及毛利率（億元）.19 圖表 28：軟體家居公司分品類收入及毛利率（億元；%）.19 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.4 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 29：定制家居公司收入-分渠道（億元）.20 圖表 30：定制家居公司零售單店收入對比.21 圖表 31：軟體家居公司零售單店收入對比.21 圖表 32：定制家居行業主要公司盈利能力（%）.21 圖表 33：軟體家居行業主要公司盈利能力（%）.22 圖表 3

17、4：智能坐便器線上零售額規模及增速.22 圖表 35：線上智能一體機均價趨勢.22 圖表 36：重點智能家居企業收入及利潤情況一覽（百萬元，%）.23 圖表 37：重點智能家居企業盈利能力一覽（%）.23 圖表 38：重點智能家居企業期間費率一覽（%）.23 圖表 39：不同地區 PMI.24 圖表 40：不同地區 GDP 增速.24 圖表 41：分品類出口概況.24 圖表 42：美國房價走勢.25 圖表 43：美國貸款利率.25 圖表 44：美國新房銷售（萬套）.25 圖表 45：美國二手房銷售（萬套）.25 圖表 46：美國零售商&批發商庫銷比.26 圖表 47：美國家居零售商銷售額&庫存

18、同比.26 圖表 48：美國家居批發銷售額&庫存同比.26 圖表 49：海外不同類型零售商&品牌商收入&庫存.27 圖表 50：出口板塊收入&利潤拆分（百萬元）.28 圖表 51：人民幣匯率.29 圖表 52：CCFI 海運指數.29 圖表 53：主要原材料價格變動趨勢（元/噸）.29 圖表 54：出口公司毛利率&歸母凈利率比較.30 圖表 55：社會消費品累計零售額及同比（億元，%）.31 圖表 56：日用品類累計零售額及同比（億元，%）.31 圖表 57：文化辦公用品累計零售額及同比（億元，%）.31 圖表 58：家具累計零售額及同比（億元，%）.31 圖表 59：輕工消費行業主要公司收入

19、及利潤（百萬元，%）.32 圖表 60：輕工消費行業主要公司盈利能力（百萬元，%）.33 圖表 61：晨光股份業務拆分.34 圖表 62：齊心集團業務拆分.34 圖表 63：百亞電商渠道收入及增速（百萬元）.35 圖表 64：2024 年 3 月抖音渠道衛生巾銷售額 TOP10.35 圖表 65：百亞各渠道毛利率變化.35 圖表 66：百亞各區域毛利率變化.35 圖表 67：明月鏡片業務拆分.36 圖表 68：博士眼鏡業務拆分.37 圖表 69：中順潔柔業務拆分.38 圖表 70：中國寵物食品出口金額及增速（億元）.38 圖表 71：中國寵物尿墊出口金額及增速（億元）.38 圖表 72：天貓、

20、抖音 2024 年 3 月寵物食品銷售排名.39 圖表 73：公牛全品類旗艦店.39 圖表 74：公牛全屋安全用電解決方案.39 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.5 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 75：登康口腔業務拆分.40 圖表 76：倍加潔業務拆分.40 圖表 77：輕工消費行業主要公司銷售費用率（%）.41 圖表 78：包裝收入&利潤拆分（單位：百萬元）.42 圖表 79：包裝盈利能力拆分（單位：%）.43 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.6 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 1 板塊板塊估值底部，基金重倉環比下行估值底部，基金重倉環

21、比下行 整體表現弱勢，不乏結構性機會。整體表現弱勢，不乏結構性機會。從股價走勢來看，2023 年輕工制造板塊股價表現較弱，2023 年 SW 輕工制造板塊股價區間漲跌幅為-7.8%，跑贏大盤 4.0%，主要系輕工板塊整體估值偏低、下跌幅度相對較??；24Q1 輕工制造板塊股價區間漲跌幅為-6.0%，跑輸大盤 10.5%，主要系小市值公司年初下跌明顯。分板塊來看，造紙子板塊表現相對優異，2023-24Q1 區間漲跌幅為-6.3%，主要由于漿價高位盤整，龍頭資源優勢持續放大；包裝印刷/家居用品/文娛用品承壓，2023-24Q1 區間漲跌幅分別為-12.4%/-14.4%/-24.1%。其中，嘉益股份

22、、百亞股份、匠心家居、乖寶寵物、紫江企業、康耐特光學、太陽紙業、永新股份、公牛集團、建霖家居等年初以來漲幅超 20%。從板塊估值來看，截至 2024 年 4 月 30 日，輕工制造行業估值為 19.2X，處于歷史 0.9%分位；分板塊來看，包裝印刷估值為 28.1X、處于歷史 12.9%分位，造紙/家居用品/文娛用品估值分別為 14.6X/17.7X/22.1X，均處于歷史底部。圖表 1：輕工制造板塊股價走勢 VS 大盤股價走勢 圖表 2：輕工制造各子板塊股價走勢 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 3：輕工各板塊估值 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究

23、所（備注：歷史分位計算為 2010 年 1 月 31 日至今）-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023-012023-012023-022023-032023-032023-042023-052023-062023-062023-072023-082023-082023-092023-102023-102023-112023-122023-122024-012024-022024-032024-032024-04滬深300輕工制造(申萬)-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023-012023-012023-022023-0

24、32023-032023-042023-052023-062023-062023-072023-082023-082023-092023-102023-102023-112023-122023-122024-012024-022024-032024-032024-04SW造紙SW包裝印刷SW家居用品SW文娛用品0204060801001201402010-012010-052010-092011-012011-052011-092012-012012-052012-092013-012013-052013-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-09

25、2016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01SW輕工制造SW造紙SW家居用品SW包裝印刷SW文娛用品 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.7 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 基金持倉環比下行，基金持倉環比下行，配置結構分化配置結構分化。從基金持倉比例看，23Q4/24Q1

26、輕工制造板塊持股比例為 4.7%/3.4%，環比+1.0pct/-1.4pct，其中 24Q1 造紙/家居/包裝/文娛持股比例分別為 3.2%/4.2%/1.4%/3.9%，環比-0.8/-2.8/-0.5/-0.4pct。從重倉情況來看，24Q1 輕工制造板塊基金重倉市值環比上行，資金配置結構進一步集中。分板塊來看：1）造紙：）造紙：前四大基金重倉公司分別為太陽紙業/博匯紙業/華旺科技/仙鶴股份，重倉市值分別為 49.5 億元/0.5 億元/0.5 億元/0.4 億元，環比+14.9%/-21.8%/+16.7%/新增。2）家居：）家居：前四大基金重倉公司分別為顧家家居/公牛集團/歐派家居/

27、索菲亞，重倉市值分別為36.0億元/18.8億元/13.5億元/7.3億元，環比+133.4%/+40.4%/-26.6%/+1.0%。3）包裝：）包裝：前兩大基金重倉公司分別為裕同科技/永新股份，基金重倉市值分別為 13.8 億元/1.1 億元，環比-6.2%/+103.9%。4）文娛：）文娛：前兩大基金重倉公司分別為晨光股份/明月鏡片，重倉市值分別為 31.6 億元/1.7 億元，環比+106.7%/-52.4%。圖表 4：輕工制造基金持倉比例 圖表 5：輕工分板塊基金持倉比例 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 6：輕工制造板塊基金重倉持股市值（

28、億元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1SW輕工制造SW輕工制造0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1SW造紙SW包裝印刷SW家居用品SW文娛用品0102

29、030405060太陽紙業顧家家居晨光股份公牛集團裕同科技歐派家居索菲亞志邦家居江山歐派瑞爾特明月鏡片力諾特玻夢百合博匯紙業永藝股份華旺科技仙鶴股份尚品宅配五洲特紙盛通股份24Q123Q4 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.8 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 7：造紙板塊基金重倉持股市值（億元）圖表 8：家居板塊基金重倉持股市值（億元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 9：包裝板塊基金重倉重倉持股市值（億元）圖表 10：文娛板塊基金重倉重倉持股市值（億元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究

30、所 2 穩健成長的高股息資產價值凸顯穩健成長的高股息資產價值凸顯 麒盛科技、江山歐派、嘉美包裝、尚品宅配、索菲亞、永新股份麒盛科技、江山歐派、嘉美包裝、尚品宅配、索菲亞、永新股份等公司當前已擁有較高的分紅水平（2023 年股息率均大于 5%）；伴隨資本開支逐步縮減，部分現金流充裕、利潤較穩定的公司有潛在分紅提升空間，相關標的包括裕同科技、慕思股份、公牛集團、裕同科技、慕思股份、公牛集團、太陽紙業太陽紙業等，其中裕同科技裕同科技前期公告 2023-2025 年三年分紅承諾（每年分紅比例不低于60%），公牛集團公牛集團 2023 年分紅方案中將分紅率提升至 71.41%，百亞股份、博士眼鏡百亞股份

31、、博士眼鏡等公司后續分紅水平可能受品牌費用投放節奏影響。0102030405060太陽紙業 博匯紙業 華旺科技 仙鶴股份 五洲特紙 山鷹國際24Q123Q40510152025303540顧家家居公牛集團歐派家居索菲亞志邦家居江山歐派力諾特玻喜臨門金牌廚柜24Q123Q40246810121416裕同科技永新股份盛通股份紫江企業嘉美包裝奧瑞金24Q123Q405101520253035晨光股份明月鏡片24Q123Q4 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.9 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 11：板塊高分紅公司梳理 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所（注：資本開支、折舊

32、攤銷、賬上現金、凈現金、凈營運資本均為 2023 年數據；其中麒盛科技、尚品宅配、合興包裝、紫江企業、豪悅護理、建霖家居選用 Wind 一致預期；收盤價截至 2024 年 5 月 9 日）3 造紙：造紙：需求回暖、提價落地，盈利逐步改善需求回暖、提價落地，盈利逐步改善 3.1 大宗紙：需求改善，提價落地，盈利環比改善大宗紙：需求改善，提價落地，盈利環比改善 漿紙系：漿紙同漲，盈利修復。漿紙系：漿紙同漲，盈利修復。成本方面，海外補庫、全球發運量表現穩健，2024 年 1-2 月 20 產漿國出貨量同比+10.2%，芬蘭罷工、Kemi 漿廠爆炸等意外擾動持續影響供給，2024H1 紙漿供需兩旺，漿

33、價持續反彈，24 年 5 月 Arauco 針葉漿外盤報價 820 美元/噸（較低點+140 美元/噸）、闊葉漿外盤報價 740 美元/噸（較低點+265 美元/噸），木漿成本上探支撐紙價上行。23Q4、24Q1 針葉漿/闊葉漿內盤價分別為 6167/5425 元/噸（同比-19.0%/-19.6%，環比+7.2%/+15.7%）、6000/5306 元/噸（同比-16.5%/-11.8%，環比-2.7%/-2.2%）；需求方面，文化紙教輔教材招標旺季疊加下游渠道補庫，提價逐步落實；頭部紙企盈利表現分化，主要系供需格局差異及上下游調節能力不同，展望未來，Q2 需求預計保持平穩運行，成本抬升下文

34、化紙價格預計維穩、均價環比小幅上行，白卡預計低位震蕩、環比保持穩定，漿紙系噸盈利預計呈現下滑態勢。1）文化紙）文化紙：成本驅動，提價窄幅落地。招標：成本驅動，提價窄幅落地。招標旺季需求改善疊加成本上升驅動提價落地，漿紙同漲共驅盈利改善，23Q4、24Q1 雙膠紙/銅版紙均價分別為 6114/5977 元/噸（同比-8.2%/+5.6%，環比+10.0%/+12.2%）、5788/5792 元/噸（同比-13.5%/+1.8%，環比-5.3%/-3.1%），Q1 淡季均價小幅回落。太陽紙業太陽紙業憑借原材料戰略布局優勢及成本管控能力，盈利表現超預期，23Q4 實現歸母凈利潤9.49億元（同比+7

35、5.5%、環比+7.2%）；24Q1 實現歸母凈利潤 9.56 億元（同比+69.0%、環比+0.7%）。岳陽林紙岳陽林紙成本改善較為滯后，23Q4 實現歸母凈利潤-3.54 億元，24Q1 盈利改善、實現歸母凈利潤 0.81 億元（同比-7.6%）。2）白卡紙：）白卡紙：供給壓力仍存，價格磨底。供給壓力仍存，價格磨底。受益于需求回暖，23Q4 白卡提價穩步落地、紙價超跌反彈，均價為 4897 元/噸（同比-7.6%，環比+11.8%），但行業供給壓力仍存，24Q1 價格環比走弱，均價為 4762 元/噸（同比-6.7%、環比-2.8%），24Q2 價盤預計低位震蕩。博匯紙業博匯紙業憑借產品結

36、構優化及成本節降，23Q4 實現實現歸母利潤 2.75 億元（同比+171.4%、環比+8.4%）；24Q1 實現歸母凈利潤 1.01 億元（同比+120.2%、環比-63.4%）。市值市值分紅率分紅率股息率股息率資本開支資本開支23年凈利潤年凈利潤（億元）（億元）202320232023（億元）（億元）20232024E2025E2026E603610.SH麒盛科技46171.6%7.9%3.42.12.123.0%22.215.913.611.915.536.403.17.3603208.SH江山歐派4156.3%7.7%1.00.83.914.0%10.59.18.07.111.944.

37、051.0-3.6002969.SZ嘉美包裝34143.0%7.3%3.01.51.5-22.2-2.64-5.05-3.34.1300616.SZ尚品宅配31305.1%6.5%7.01.70.6-47.816.011.0-29.912.794.3-6.6002572.SZ索菲亞17975.5%5.4%7.61.412.615.8%14.211.910.59.134.9512.541.0-12.4002014.SZ永新股份6382.6%5.4%1.10.74.114.0%15.413.411.810.411.787.681.96.8605377.SH華旺科技7863.9%4.7%3.73.4

38、5.714.2%13.812.410.79.322.9419.203.47.1603801.SH志邦家居6851.4%4.5%4.22.16.012.3%11.410.29.18.18.6310.241.7-1.2001206.SZ依依股份2844.3%4.3%0.50.91.030.6%27.016.413.912.12.707.327.17.4002228.SZ合興包裝35136.0%4.2%3.51.11.0-34.021.018.0-6.06-9.65-9.412.5603833.SH歐派家居40855.1%4.1%21.02.330.49.4%13.412.711.410.3125.

39、7525.800.8-15.11999.HK敏華控股21151.1%4.1%13.72.316.815.7%12.610.49.18.131.68-1.87-0.119.1600210.SH紫江企業9667.8%4.0%9.72.25.616.6%17.114.212.510.825.65-7.62-1.410.6603816.SH顧家家居29456.3%3.9%22.23.320.110.9%14.713.212.010.835.8316.100.8-8.6300622.SZ博士眼鏡2881.7%3.7%0.20.11.317.9%22.018.715.513.41.940.290.22.5

40、605009.SH豪悅護理7067.8%3.8%2.82.34.416.7%15.913.311.410.022.9619.294.4-4.5002831.SZ裕同科技25560.3%3.5%11.71.414.415.6%17.715.113.111.534.96-12.34-0.943.8603600.SH永藝股份4044.5%3.3%3.33.03.018.4%13.612.29.88.26.643.571.23.2001323.SZ慕思股份14249.0%2.8%4.01.68.012.3%17.715.814.012.528.7631.653.9-4.0603408.SH建霖家居75

41、46.1%2.6%3.11.44.217.0%17.615.112.711.04.785.511.312.7603180.SH金牌廚柜3431.4%2.7%5.73.52.915.7%11.810.08.77.67.886.932.45.3603195.SH公牛集團111771.4%2.5%6.62.338.715.2%28.924.921.618.947.44134.713.575.3003006.SZ百亞股份9999.1%2.4%0.81.52.429.3%41.532.325.319.23.567.753.33.8603899.SH晨光股份34848.4%2.1%2.10.415.317

42、.7%22.819.316.514.052.3960.013.99.2002078.SZ太陽紙業44027.2%1.9%47.72.230.916.5%14.311.59.79.024.95-144.38-4.737.0股票代碼股票代碼分紅分紅公司名稱公司名稱股息率大于4%股息率大于2%+具備分紅提升預期凈現金凈現金/23年凈利潤年凈利潤凈營運資本凈營運資本23-26年凈年凈利潤利潤CAGRPE賬上現金賬上現金凈現金凈現金資本開支資本開支/折折舊攤銷舊攤銷 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.10 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 廢紙系：庫存低位，成本、價格小幅下降。廢紙系

43、：庫存低位，成本、價格小幅下降。成本方面，23Q4 國廢均價為 1575 元/噸（同比-19.9%、環比+3.2%），24Q1 均價為 1514 元（同比-9.8%、環比-3.9%）；價格方面，紙價逐步消化進口紙零關稅沖擊，23H2 包裝紙消費旺季催化需求，產業庫存低位驅動提價窄幅落地，23Q4、24Q1 箱板紙/瓦楞紙均價分別為 3843/2927 元/噸（同比-14.2%/-11.9%，環比+2.5%/+5.9%）、3833/2855 元/噸（同比-10.4%/-8.7%，環比-0.3%-2.5%）。Q1 成本、紙價淡季均呈現小幅下降態勢。受益于供給增量有限，伴隨需求溫和回暖，行業供需關系

44、有望緩和，Q2 紙價預計延續磨底，產銷量改善情況下龍頭噸盈利有望小幅改善。山鷹國際山鷹國際 23Q4 實現歸母利潤 2.73 億元（同比+111.8%、環比+76.2%）；24Q1 實現實現歸母凈利潤 0.39 億元（同比+111.4%、環比-85.7%）。圖表 12：重點造紙企業收入及利潤情況一覽（百萬元，%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 13：重點造紙企業盈利能力一覽（%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1大宗紙行業大

45、宗紙行業117356.56121119.69150491.18162623.1035124.5036291.4737957.8438561.56147935.3736086.42119292.73125703.31154954.92167091.5335176.9136345.0138010.0338608.37152615.4236133.87YOY0.27%3.21%24.25%8.06%-9.91%-12.65%-9.10%-4.39%-9.03%2.74%1.20%5.37%23.27%7.83%-9.90%-12.62%-9.09%-4.38%-8.66%2.72%太陽紙業太陽紙業2

46、2762.7021588.6531996.6439766.939805.039536.989860.5210341.8139544.3410184.9323915.8622878.5632368.2840294.6310458.8210133.3610678.8010765.9140125.3223147.22YOY()4.6%-5.2%48.2%24.3%1.4%-6.4%0.8%2.1%-0.6%3.9%5.8%-4.3%41.5%24.5%8.2%-6.1%0.9%1.0%-0.4%121.3%博匯紙業博匯紙業9739.8013982.1016276.1218361.784161.534

47、495.615020.595015.3218693.064398.3410030.7214332.8516790.9418905.704767.615238.915666.944946.8519241.579061.45YOY()16.8%43.6%16.4%12.8%0.5%-4.9%0.9%11.0%1.8%5.7%17.6%42.9%17.2%12.6%15.2%-1.1%1.6%-2.2%1.8%90.1%山鷹國際山鷹國際23240.9524969.1533032.8134014.126351.507396.057564.438021.3629333.346669.1223331.48

48、25054.7733102.8834100.956476.377484.847684.576722.3129386.5324521.70YOY()-4.6%7.4%32.3%3.0%-20.2%-15.1%-13.9%-6.3%-13.8%5.0%-4.6%7.4%32.1%3.0%-18.7%-15.2%-14.3%-22.3%-13.8%278.6%晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業30395.4330736.5233019.8132004.376155.926409.057156.896886.7126608.576761.7830395.4331787.6734402.1033310.407733.60

49、8038.118571.818205.4628052.2530360.57YOY()5.3%1.1%7.4%-3.1%-27.7%-21.5%-17.5%3.6%-16.9%9.8%5.3%4.6%8.2%-3.2%-9.2%-15.3%-14.1%3.2%-15.8%292.6%岳陽林紙岳陽林紙7105.947115.867838.059781.492522.472173.941923.532020.798640.731959.757509.197495.568262.4310172.932903.642482.762199.372276.938957.917629.86YOY()1.3%0

50、.1%10.1%24.8%51.1%-1.1%-24.8%-39.8%-11.7%-22.3%2.9%-0.2%10.2%23.1%73.9%-6.4%-31.2%-39.3%-11.9%162.8%大宗紙行業大宗紙行業6264.427880.4310349.211928.04(279.04)651.471303.46730.682406.561480.905079.867081.149512.981015.67(481.87)302.89805.02416.961043.01998.35YOY-36.02%25.80%31.33%-81.37%-116.62%-59.71%33.56%-24

51、.82%-40.16%39.40%34.34%-89.32%-130.31%-79.85%-3.48%-114.32%2.69%-307.18%太陽紙業太陽紙業2178.121953.112956.842808.77565.60685.72885.26949.103085.69956.102098.731923.232931.712771.07553.00665.14867.16941.293026.59952.37YOY()-2.7%-10.3%51.4%-5.0%-16.2%-30.3%45.5%75.5%9.9%69.0%-5.1%-8.4%52.4%-5.5%-16.0%-32.1%4

52、5.4%75.6%9.2%72.2%博匯紙業博匯紙業133.77834.071705.68228.07-497.05150.75253.38274.75181.83100.53175.78821.971712.77221.03-547.8794.76241.71332.04120.6594.75YOY()-47.7%523.5%104.5%-86.6%-375.2%-40.1%40.6%171.4%-20.3%120.2%-32.4%367.6%108.4%-87.1%-412.7%-63.6%38.2%185.3%-45.4%117.3%山鷹國際山鷹國際1362.181381.101515.

53、67-2256.45-341.2770.18154.69272.63156.2339.061258.681430.461200.10-2406.64-377.05-59.0077.4660.41-298.18-15.48YOY()-57.5%1.4%9.7%-248.9%-270.7%197.6%311.4%111.8%106.9%111.4%-53.0%13.6%-16.1%-300.5%-318.2%45.7%158.1%102.6%87.6%95.9%晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業1656.571712.032065.51189.29-275.41-412.67-80.21-513.00-1281.2

54、958.20702.331119.101743.88-361.46-327.89-483.95-439.77-690.51-1942.12-226.48YOY()-34.0%3.3%20.6%-90.8%-341.8%-455.1%-868.7%-900.3%-776.9%121.1%-64.1%59.3%55.8%-120.7%-429.1%-756.0%-2306.7%-33.7%-437.3%30.9%岳陽林紙岳陽林紙313.24414.31298.08615.5687.4915.4213.17-354.03-237.9580.84252.48376.88210.03547.7762.8

55、3-7.519.89-55.999.22-40.71YOY()-14.4%32.3%-28.1%106.5%-29.6%-91.2%-92.4%-350.0%-138.7%-7.6%-13.5%49.3%-44.3%160.8%-44.4%-104.5%-93.7%-150.0%-98.3%-164.8%營業收入規模及增速營業收入規模及增速收入收入&合同負債規模及增速合同負債規模及增速歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1大宗紙行業大宗紙行業20.47%18.50%17.38%11

56、.63%8.98%9.99%10.29%10.83%10.83%12.98%YOY-1.79%-1.97%-1.13%-5.75%-4.39%-3.60%-2.51%-0.80%-0.80%4.00%太陽紙業太陽紙業22.54%19.44%17.37%15.17%13.51%16.13%16.74%17.12%15.89%17.99%YOY()-0.91%-3.11%-2.07%-2.21%-0.46%-2.75%2.24%3.90%0.72%4.48%博匯紙業博匯紙業14.58%17.06%22.93%11.65%-4.60%12.58%15.81%17.09%10.83%13.30%YOY

57、()-1.46%2.48%5.87%-11.28%-19.52%-6.24%1.02%19.41%-0.82%17.90%山鷹國際山鷹國際19.06%16.74%12.19%7.23%7.72%9.49%10.15%11.66%9.87%9.88%YOY()-3.99%-2.33%-4.55%-4.96%-2.98%1.61%3.01%8.21%2.64%2.16%晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業28.36%23.07%23.61%14.47%10.52%6.57%4.38%11.34%8.13%12.37%YOY()-2.91%-5.29%0.54%-9.15%-5.67%-8.67%-7.97%-2.75

58、%-6.34%1.86%岳陽林紙岳陽林紙18.91%18.97%15.11%15.41%11.81%8.64%5.02%7.64%8.53%7.05%YOY()-1.88%0.06%-3.86%0.30%-6.89%-8.56%-10.45%-4.91%-6.88%-4.76%大宗紙行業大宗紙行業5.34%6.51%6.88%1.19%-0.79%1.80%3.43%1.89%1.63%4.10%YOY-3.03%1.17%0.37%-5.69%-5.10%-2.10%1.10%7.71%0.44%4.90%太陽紙業太陽紙業9.57%9.05%9.24%7.06%5.77%7.19%8.98%

59、9.18%7.80%9.39%YOY()-0.71%-0.52%0.19%-2.18%-1.21%-2.47%2.76%3.84%0.74%3.62%博匯紙業博匯紙業1.37%5.97%10.48%1.24%-11.94%3.35%5.05%5.48%0.97%2.29%YOY()-1.70%4.59%4.51%-9.24%-16.31%-1.97%1.43%13.99%-0.27%14.23%山鷹國際山鷹國際5.86%5.53%4.59%-6.63%-5.37%0.95%2.04%3.40%0.53%0.59%YOY()-7.29%-0.33%-0.94%-11.22%-7.88%1.77%

60、2.88%30.38%7.17%5.96%晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業5.45%5.57%6.26%0.59%-4.47%-6.44%-1.12%-7.45%-4.82%0.86%YOY()-3.24%0.12%0.69%-5.66%-5.81%-7.86%-1.24%-6.68%-5.41%5.33%岳陽林紙岳陽林紙4.41%5.82%3.80%6.29%3.47%0.71%0.68%-17.52%-2.75%4.13%YOY()-0.81%1.41%-2.02%2.49%-3.97%-7.27%-6.13%-21.74%-9.05%0.66%毛利率毛利率歸母凈利率歸母凈利率 2024 年 05 月 1

61、1 日 P.11 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 14：各細分紙種和原料價格（元/噸）資料來源：卓創資訊，Wind，國盛證券研究所 紙漿價格持續上行背景下，紙企龍頭增加部分原材料庫存，太陽紙業、博匯紙業太陽紙業、博匯紙業原材料庫存呈現上行態勢，有望部分平滑后續成本上漲壓力。針葉漿針葉漿闊葉漿闊葉漿雙膠紙雙膠紙銅版紙銅版紙白卡紙白卡紙國廢國廢瓦楞紙瓦楞紙箱板紙箱板紙白板紙白板紙2022Q1675457375880548361162317385748844849同比同比0.14%6.44%-8.68%-15.09%-27.39%0.67%1.60%4.16%-10.93%環

62、比環比22.31%23.96%6.67%2.28%1.60%-4.72%-9.26%-5.43%-4.94%2022Q2736763796156559363732345372548444589同比同比5.78%21.39%-7.49%-18.31%-30.02%5.02%1.31%4.62%-11.25%環比環比9.08%11.20%4.69%2.00%4.21%1.18%-3.43%-0.81%-5.36%2022Q3738967156253549056322113345846994107同比同比16.03%40.57%14.62%0.86%-8.70%-12.07%-11.02%-2.11

63、%-15.23%環比環比0.30%5.26%1.58%-1.83%-11.63%-9.89%-7.16%-3.00%-10.51%2022Q4761367456662565953011966332244804078同比同比37.86%45.74%20.87%5.56%-11.94%-19.18%-21.86%-13.26%-20.04%環比環比3.02%0.44%6.54%3.08%-5.88%-6.97%-3.95%-4.67%-0.69%2023Q1718960156694568951061678312642774079同比同比6.44%4.86%13.84%3.77%-16.51%-27

64、.60%-18.96%-12.42%-15.88%環比環比-5.57%-10.81%0.47%0.54%-3.67%-14.64%-5.89%-4.51%0.02%2023Q2585743176060543044871584284839453702同比同比-20.49%-32.33%-1.55%-2.91%-29.60%-32.44%-23.55%-18.55%-19.32%環比環比-18.52%-28.24%-9.46%-4.56%-12.13%-5.59%-8.90%-7.76%-9.23%2023Q3575346875560532643801526276337483523同比同比-22.

65、15%-30.20%-11.09%-2.99%-22.22%-27.76%-20.09%-20.23%-14.21%環比環比-1.79%8.58%-8.26%-1.92%-2.37%-3.65%-2.97%-5.00%-4.85%2023Q4616754256114597748971575292738433865同比同比-18.99%-19.57%-8.23%5.63%-7.61%-19.85%-11.90%-14.20%-5.24%環比環比7.20%15.74%9.97%12.23%11.80%3.22%5.91%2.54%9.70%2024Q160005306578857924762151

66、4285538333856同比同比-16.53%-11.79%-13.53%1.81%-6.74%-9.78%-8.68%-10.39%-5.46%環比環比-2.70%-2.19%-5.33%-3.10%-2.77%-3.92%-2.45%-0.27%-0.22%漿紙系漿紙系廢紙系廢紙系 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.12 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 15：龍頭存貨梳理（億元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 龍頭擴張放緩，行業龍頭擴張放緩，行業 Capex 逐步進入下行周期。逐步進入下行周期。2023 年太陽紙業、博匯紙業、晨鳴紙業、山 鷹 國 際 資

67、本 性 開 支 分 別 為 47.74/5.41/3.14/20.15 億 元，較 高 點 下 降34%/77%/91%/57%；資本性開支與經營性現金流比值方面，2023 年太陽紙業、博匯紙業、晨鳴紙業、山鷹國際分別為0.72/0.26/0.07/0.64，較高點下降0.75/8.08/0.19/17.95。2022-2023 年龍頭逆勢擴張，普遍面臨一定現金流壓力，產能擴張接近尾聲，大宗紙企業逐步進入 Capex 下行周期。圖表 16：龍頭紙企資本性支出開始呈收縮跡象，逐步進入 Capex 下行周期 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所（注：玖龍紙業財年為前一年 7 月 1 日-當年 6 月

68、 30 日）23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1存貨47.7944.2337.4045.7443.41其中：原材料24.0526.02其中：在產品0.530.77其中：產成品14.1013.06存貨57.4757.4054.9848.8050.19其中：原材料10.897.50其中：在產品1.361.61其中：產成品4.141.44存貨34.0429.5422.4124.9632.93其中：原材料16.7316.94其中：在產品0.810.85其中：產成品12.177.29存貨30.2730.0828.4028.2330.01其中：原材料16.9617.90其中：在產品0.140.21其中

69、：產成品13.0910.36存貨71.1867.7855.3749.5850.34其中：原材料18.9419.77其中：在產品1.331.02其中：產成品21.6314.13太陽紙業岳陽林紙博匯紙業山鷹國際晨鳴紙業資本性開支（億元）資本性開支（億元）2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A太陽紙業太陽紙業30.3540.9163.0972.4947.1247.74YoY-23.73%34.80%54.19%14.91%-34.99%1.31%博匯紙業博匯紙業23.6516.123.373.0815.015.41YoY96.72%-31.86%-79.09%-8.49%386

70、.72%-63.95%晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業36.0911.122.546.338.853.14YoY60.18%-69.18%-77.14%148.86%39.97%-64.49%山鷹國際山鷹國際16.8030.7334.7646.3637.8020.15YoY111.54%82.92%13.09%33.37%-18.46%-46.70%資本性開支資本性開支/經營性現金流經營性現金流2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A太陽紙業太陽紙業0.680.870.951.471.230.72較上年同期增減-0.380.200.080.52-0.24-0.51博匯紙業博匯紙業2.201

71、.420.090.088.340.26較上年同期增減1.27-0.79-1.32-0.018.25-8.08晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業0.260.090.020.070.260.07較上年同期增減-94.54-0.17-0.070.050.18-0.19山鷹國際山鷹國際0.522.302.972.3518.590.64較上年同期增減0.231.790.67-0.6216.23-17.95資產負債率資產負債率2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A太陽紙業太陽紙業57.2%54.5%54.7%56.0%51.7%48.3%較上年同期增減-1.2%-2.7%0.2%1.3%-4.2%-3

72、.5%博匯紙業博匯紙業72.2%72.8%68.7%63.5%71.4%69.9%較上年同期增減9.4%0.6%-4.1%-5.2%7.9%-1.5%晨鳴紙業晨鳴紙業75.4%73.1%71.8%72.8%71.9%73.5%較上年同期增減4.1%-2.3%-1.3%1.0%-0.9%1.6%山鷹國際山鷹國際62.3%65.0%62.1%64.8%73.1%71.3%較上年同期增減1.1%2.7%-2.9%2.7%8.3%-1.8%玖龍紙業玖龍紙業FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024H1資本性開支（億元）資本性開支（億元）63.8758.1547

73、.9460.60126.21176.9866.03YoY74.1%-9.0%-17.6%26.4%108.3%40.2%-38.7%資本開支資本開支/經營性現金流經營性現金流0.760.670.542.414.162.56-2.63較上年同期增減-0.28-0.09-0.221.871.76-1.61-6.59資產負債率資產負債率53.4%53.1%48.6%49.7%55.6%62.6%64.9%較上年同期增減-1.1%-0.3%-4.5%1.1%6.0%7.0%5.2%2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.13 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 3.2 特種紙：成本穩定、提

74、價落地，盈利復蘇特種紙：成本穩定、提價落地，盈利復蘇 成本控制優異，提價落地，盈利穩步修復。成本控制優異，提價落地，盈利穩步修復。23Q4 特種紙板塊實現收入 109.44 億元（同比+7.5%），實現歸母凈利潤 5.48 億元（同比+66.5%）；24Q1 收入為 99.24 億元（同比+8.8%），歸母凈利潤為 7.47 億元（同比+110.2%）。受益于低價漿入庫，企業成本上升較為平滑，疊加 23Q3 紙企逐步提價，盈利穩步修復。目前行業仍處提價通道且整體成本可控，盈利延續修復。當前節點：價格端價格端：23Q3 紙企讓利客戶、價盤下降，但年末終端需求改善、外盤漿價持續報漲，23Q4 提價

75、逐步落地、24Q1 延續上升，其中裝飾原紙裝飾原紙由于競爭顯現、價盤小幅下降；目前熱轉印、格拉辛等熱轉印、格拉辛等日用消費品類仍處提價通道，預計落地幅度優異，24Q2行業均價有望維持上行趨勢。銷量端：銷量端：24Q1 受節假日影響、龍頭產銷環比下滑，但受益于 23 年新增產能穩步爬坡，其中仙鶴股份仙鶴股份（PM29&PM30、30 萬噸食品卡）、五洲特紙五洲特紙（2.2 萬噸熱轉?。?、華旺科技華旺科技（8 萬噸裝飾原紙）新增產能貢獻增量，產銷同比均表現靚麗。展望未來，龍頭紙企新增產能落地在即，24 年產銷有望逐季增加。噸盈利噸盈利：受益于前期囤漿、提價落地，五洲特紙、仙鶴股份五洲特紙、仙鶴股份

76、盈利修復顯著；華旺科華旺科技技產品結構改變&競爭顯現，表現平穩；冠豪高新冠豪高新低價化機漿 Q3 入庫，Q4 成本延續改善、盈利呈現持續修復趨勢。展望未來，仙鶴股份、五洲特紙、冠豪高新仙鶴股份、五洲特紙、冠豪高新 Q2 均價向上、成本可控，噸盈利預計高位穩定；華旺科技華旺科技受制行業供給增加影響，價盤預計穩定，噸盈利小幅承壓。圖表 17：龍頭均價、銷量、噸盈利變化 資料來源：Wind，公司公告，國盛證券研究所（測算數據，存在誤差風險）2023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1銷量（萬噸）18.420.630.327.924.5噸價（元/噸）9986.39377.18073.1

77、8401.99016.3噸盈利（元/噸）426.370.5362.7839.2922.7銷量（萬噸）6.87.28.68.17.7噸價（元/噸）10832.210343.110370.09695.510285.0噸盈利（元/噸）1592.71983.51801.11953.41773.6銷量（萬噸）17.6025.0232.3031.5329.00噸價（元/噸）71506327564458835952噸盈利（元/噸）(169.44)70.64368.57526.34461.46銷量（萬噸）17.122.124.124.421.5噸價（元/噸）8350.947252.047472.057131.

78、717074.08噸盈利（元/噸）43.90(679.34)(182.16)147.30259.74仙鶴股份華旺科技五洲特紙冠豪高新 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.14 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 18：特種紙收入&利潤拆分（單位：百萬元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 19：特種紙盈利能力拆分（%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 原材料儲備分化，仙鶴、華旺成本紅利有望延續。原材料儲備分化，仙鶴、華旺成本紅利有望延續。23Q2 漿價低位、公司加大囤漿力度，存貨明顯提升；伴隨低價漿消耗、且多數紙企龍頭 24Q1 對漿價上漲謹慎觀望，紙企龍頭原材料

79、儲備分化，其中仙鶴股份、華旺科技仙鶴股份、華旺科技加大儲備力度，伴隨漿價超預期上漲，預計 24Q2-24Q3 成本紅利有望延續。201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1特種紙行業特種紙行業19422.9723769.2834501.6439444.589117.999737.0010821.9210944.4641125.249924.2319422.9724039.9134880.7339976.939518.2010098.7511304.1611302.3341483.

80、1210366.18YOY-0.15%22.38%45.15%14.33%0.62%-4.10%7.65%7.54%4.26%8.84%-0.15%23.77%45.10%14.61%0.58%-5.44%6.61%5.54%3.77%8.91%仙鶴股份仙鶴股份4567.044843.106016.977738.311837.471928.872446.162340.978553.482209.004630.924891.866067.097793.351972.312027.522618.572324.878669.354342.45YOY11.5%6.0%24.2%28.6%9.5%0.5

81、%27.9%5.1%10.5%20.2%10.2%5.6%24.0%28.5%17.5%0.2%28.1%1.8%11.2%120.2%五洲特紙五洲特紙2375.932634.663689.525962.081258.391582.901823.111854.916519.311726.182382.052649.213710.545990.521280.381614.721889.551767.926561.052203.73YOY10.6%10.9%40.0%61.6%-5.5%-3.6%15.6%31.4%9.3%37.2%10.6%11.2%40.1%61.4%-3.8%-4.2%17

82、.4%22.8%9.5%72.1%華旺科技華旺科技1654.021611.982940.193436.40913.97947.141122.82991.853975.79951.861686.261620.072949.413458.76933.70974.171131.30964.933988.851929.92YOY-14.1%-2.5%82.4%16.9%20.9%11.4%27.2%4.7%15.7%4.1%-12.5%-3.9%82.1%17.3%23.5%11.2%25.6%-0.5%15.3%106.7%冠豪高新冠豪高新2594.772439.757397.828085.9716

83、25.331823.261935.322019.467403.371689.922614.572451.057478.298305.311714.461878.711994.841763.027476.472646.82YOY1.7%-6.0%203.2%9.3%-5.6%-12.9%-6.7%-8.1%-8.4%4.0%1.5%-6.3%205.1%11.1%-0.4%-14.7%-8.3%-27.0%-10.0%54.4%恒達新材恒達新材583.34671.96757.74953.18198.61185.92228.79255.42868.74253.55583.61673.00759.3

84、3956.45198.61187.08229.91254.75869.93543.58YOY7.7%15.2%12.8%25.8%-8.8%-1.2%-8.9%27.7%7.5%15.3%12.8%26.0%-8.3%-2.7%-9.0%173.7%齊峰新材齊峰新材3249.822810.913701.963118.64796.10926.54990.86947.333660.82861.913282.832857.803750.913143.91838.22961.171033.38881.063679.973754.91YOY-11.7%-13.5%31.7%-15.8%-5.0%13.6

85、%23.1%43.5%17.4%8.3%-11.5%-12.9%31.3%-16.2%0.0%12.7%23.5%28.5%17.1%348.0%特種紙行業特種紙行業1055.521281.502654.322075.97355.22254.86613.10548.271771.45746.68510.21754.842263.791717.56263.12138.40529.09730.651661.26676.19YOY9.22%21.41%107.13%-21.79%-34.86%-62.54%17.69%66.51%-14.67%110.20%-11.37%47.95%199.90%-

86、24.13%-45.18%-76.04%28.89%192.77%-3.28%156.99%仙鶴股份仙鶴股份439.93717.161016.67710.29122.1358.51201.19281.96663.79268.85418.86645.74958.17556.95115.0132.82167.34279.69594.86236.89YOY50.4%63.0%41.8%-30.1%-16.3%-71.9%-5.5%96.7%-6.5%120.1%56.6%54.2%48.4%-41.9%-13.1%-81.2%7.6%196.0%6.8%106.0%五洲特紙五洲特紙199.25338

87、.56390.16205.20-29.8217.68119.05165.95272.86133.82175.69313.11353.26163.04-14.2612.7894.56158.67251.75131.65YOY20.5%69.9%15.2%-47.4%-128.9%-84.0%1053.8%983.1%33.0%548.8%29.6%78.2%12.8%-53.8%-113.9%-85.7%3492.6%602.6%54.4%1023.0%華旺科技華旺科技170.79260.00448.58467.34107.51128.44160.90169.24566.09146.84165.

88、26254.86427.05453.4096.70123.65158.72148.84527.91145.00YOY36.2%52.2%72.5%4.2%-4.4%12.1%55.3%23.8%21.1%36.6%34.7%54.2%67.6%6.2%-6.5%11.1%55.8%8.8%16.4%50.0%冠豪高新冠豪高新170.33178.55138.71387.117.94-58.26-19.0523.14-46.2442.53148.25156.500.69375.537.17-66.99-18.4310.36-67.8937.71YOY56.0%4.8%-22.3%179.1%-79

89、.2%-152.4%-118.6%-82.9%-111.9%435.8%63.3%5.6%-99.6%54453.5%-79.3%-160.5%-118.5%-92.1%-118.1%426.2%恒達新材恒達新材32.0989.79103.6297.4517.1524.9028.1517.4487.6316.6929.4087.0495.1685.40-26.7513.8777.5015.63YOY17.1%179.8%15.4%-6.0%-9.5%49.2%-10.1%-2.7%20.1%196.0%9.3%-10.3%-9.3%-齊峰新材齊峰新材132.71159.92165.248.48

90、-1.8349.79109.4579.37236.7851.18115.11130.09125.84-6.36-6.8346.17113.0565.18217.5747.69YOY127.4%20.5%3.3%-94.9%-108.9%1158.2%1002.0%1567.8%2693.6%2893.4%189.8%13.0%-3.3%-105.0%-157.4%609.7%668.3%1439.2%3523.6%797.8%扣非歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速收入收入&合同負債規模及增速合同負債規模及增速營業收入規模及增速營業收入規模及增速歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速20192020

91、2021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1特種紙行業特種紙行業19.23%20.36%18.33%13.35%10.61%9.62%12.09%15.21%13.23%15.49%YOY1.45%1.13%-2.03%-4.98%-4.26%-6.20%-0.29%4.73%-0.12%4.88%仙鶴股份仙鶴股份18.70%20.47%19.98%11.51%10.01%8.25%9.32%18.05%11.62%18.01%YOY1.47%1.78%-0.50%-8.47%-1.53%-5.95%-2.49%9.14%0.11%8.00%五洲特紙五洲特紙19.16%23

92、.13%17.28%8.78%3.42%6.75%10.72%15.11%9.59%12.96%YOY2.36%3.97%-5.85%-8.50%-13.02%-7.35%2.30%19.33%0.81%9.54%華旺科技華旺科技18.24%24.55%21.86%18.47%14.08%18.80%20.61%22.11%19.05%20.16%YOY3.38%6.31%-2.69%-3.38%-7.35%-1.03%4.97%4.56%0.58%6.08%冠豪高新冠豪高新25.43%23.51%18.68%14.22%10.00%2.66%6.08%7.04%6.36%14.03%YOY5

93、.14%-1.92%-4.83%-4.46%-4.54%-14.77%-8.04%-3.94%-7.85%4.03%恒達新材恒達新材20.63%26.48%24.49%18.87%16.09%22.43%23.49%12.52%18.35%12.25%YOY1.21%5.85%-1.99%-5.62%16.09%22.43%5.83%0.27%-0.53%-3.84%齊峰新材齊峰新材14.06%14.39%10.87%7.85%6.01%13.20%19.68%15.47%13.98%13.51%YOY2.77%0.33%-3.52%-3.02%-3.54%3.89%14.69%8.09%6.

94、12%7.50%特種紙行業特種紙行業13.62%14.57%9.66%7.76%6.71%7.95%6.91%5.01%4.31%7.52%YOY0.96%0.95%-4.91%-1.91%-1.70%-0.56%-0.10%1.77%-0.96%3.63%仙鶴股份仙鶴股份9.63%14.81%16.90%9.18%6.65%3.03%8.22%12.04%7.76%12.17%YOY2.50%5.18%2.09%-7.72%-2.05%-7.81%-2.91%5.61%-1.42%5.52%五洲特紙五洲特紙8.39%12.85%10.57%3.44%-2.37%1.12%6.53%8.95%

95、4.19%7.75%YOY0.69%4.46%-2.28%-7.13%-10.11%-5.62%5.88%10.28%0.74%10.12%華旺科技華旺科技10.33%16.13%15.26%13.60%11.76%13.56%14.33%17.06%14.24%15.43%YOY3.81%5.80%-0.87%-1.66%-3.11%0.09%2.60%2.63%0.64%3.66%冠豪高新冠豪高新6.56%7.32%1.88%4.79%0.49%-3.20%-0.98%1.15%-0.62%2.52%YOY2.28%0.75%-5.44%2.91%-1.73%-8.51%-5.91%-5.

96、01%-5.41%2.03%恒達新材恒達新材5.50%13.36%13.68%10.22%8.63%13.40%12.30%6.83%10.09%6.58%YOY0.44%7.86%0.31%-3.45%-2.05%2.31%-0.14%-2.05%齊峰新材齊峰新材4.08%5.69%4.46%0.27%-0.23%5.37%11.05%8.38%6.47%5.94%YOY2.50%1.61%-1.23%-4.19%-2.68%5.95%12.55%7.66%6.20%6.17%歸母凈利率歸母凈利率毛利率毛利率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.15 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報

97、告末頁聲明 圖表 20：原材料庫存（億元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 日用消費類紙種供需延續平衡，日用消費類紙種供需延續平衡，食品卡食品卡競爭激烈，競爭激烈，裝飾原紙矛盾裝飾原紙矛盾顯現。顯現。1）食品卡：受益于以紙代塑&社會環保意識增強，需求增量表現突出，但龍頭集中投產，2024 年供給增量較大，供需預計呈現弱平衡；2）裝飾原紙：受地產疲軟影響、需求壓力預計逐步顯現，中高端市場預計表現較優，且出口市場消化部分供給增量，但 2024 年供給增量較大（預計新增 20+萬噸），預計供大于求；3）日用消費系列：熱敏/熱轉印/格拉辛等使用場景拓寬、下游行業復蘇，需求穩健增長，細分賽道供需延續平

98、衡，其中格拉辛預計供小于求。4）醫療用紙：受益于最終滅菌&以紙代塑推進，2024 年預計恢復較快增長，但由于前期投產較多&規劃產能充足，整體供需弱平衡；5）煙草配套系列：由于下游行業（煙草&紙發票）變革，預計需求延續承壓，新增規劃亦有限，預計呈現供需弱平衡。圖表 21：特種紙細分品類供需平衡表&競爭格局 資料來源：恒達新材招股書、華經產業研究院、共研網、觀研天下、智研咨詢、知網文化、中國家居產業、中商情報網、各公司公開投資者交流紀要、各公司公告、湛江經濟開發區門戶網站、馬鞍山慈湖高新區公眾微信號、紙視界、國盛證券研究所（供需狀態為自行預測）海外合作加強，出海持續發展。海外合作加強，出海持續發展

99、。根據中國造紙協會特種紙委員會數據，2023 年我國特種紙進口量/出口量分別為 33.4/181.3 萬噸，同比分別-19.1%/+9.7%，其中華旺科技、仙華旺科技、仙鶴股份鶴股份（歐洲、東南亞等區域同步拓展）等龍頭把握出海機遇，憑借技術研發&優異產品，客戶合作加深，持續出海搶占份額。23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1存貨26.5429.9829.2627.7731.23其中：原材料15.2515.61其中：在產品0.020.03其中：產成品14.7512.26存貨7.886.757.289.799.12其中：原材料5.117.09其中：在產品0.020.02其中：產成品1.622.7

100、9存貨8.689.657.145.756.05其中：原材料4.903.53其中：在產品0.000.00其中：產成品4.802.20存貨14.7513.2611.1710.3413.79其中：原材料6.646.50其中：在產品0.240.40其中：產成品6.543.60存貨4.244.614.754.16其中：原材料3.503.97其中：在產品0.120.11其中：產成品0.620.68仙鶴股份華旺科技五洲特紙冠豪高新恒達新材20182019202020212022E新增供給2022年競爭格局龍頭紙企供需狀態供需狀態產量（萬噸）161.2205.4236.5267.0301.7厚紙：CR232.

101、18%五洲特紙、冠豪高新弱平衡弱平衡YOY6.0%27.4%15.1%12.9%13.0%薄紙：CR244.5%仙鶴股份、恒達新材弱平衡弱平衡銷量（萬噸）105.5108.5111.3120.5105.7YOY8.5%2.9%2.6%3.3%-12.3%產量（萬噸）30.234.238.944.352.5YOY34.8%13.2%13.7%14.0%18.3%產量（萬噸）49.052.053.053.055.1YOY16.7%6.1%1.9%0.0%4.0%產量（萬噸）46.744.743.142.241.4YOY-0.6%-4.3%-3.6%-2.0%-2.0%產量（萬噸）19.220.42

102、1.023.025.0YOY3.2%6.4%2.8%9.5%8.7%產量（萬噸）13.816.221.023.524.2YOY3.1%17.0%29.8%11.9%3.0%產量（萬噸）8.88.59.010.510.5YOY-1.1%-3.4%5.9%16.7%0.0%弱平衡弱平衡供大于求供大于求供小于求供小于求弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡CR3 76.5%仙鶴股份、齊峰新材、華旺科技食品包裝紙厚紙：1）2021五洲50萬噸食品卡持續爬坡；2）2023仙鶴30萬噸食品卡；3）2024冠豪30萬噸食品卡；4）金天和30萬噸食品卡薄紙：1）2024年仙鶴廣西&湖北項目；2）2024年恒達5

103、萬噸食品醫療及深加工；3）2024-2025年華旺40萬噸特種紙；4）民豐8、25號機合計技改5萬噸裝飾原紙2024仙鶴廣西&湖北項目2024-2025華旺40萬噸特種紙2025齊峰20萬噸裝飾原紙（首期8萬噸）格拉辛紙2024仙鶴廣西&湖北項目2024-2025華旺40萬噸特種紙CR3 84.1%仙鶴股份、五洲特紙、UPM熱敏紙2024仙鶴廣西&湖北項目CR2 28.5%仙鶴股份、冠豪高新無碳紙醫療用紙2024年仙鶴廣西&湖北項目2024年恒達5萬噸食品醫療及深加工2024-2025年華旺40萬噸特種紙民豐8、25號機合計技改5萬噸（部分為醫療紙）CR2 44.1%仙鶴股份、恒達新材熱轉印2

104、023五洲2.2萬噸熱轉印2024冠豪6萬噸熱轉印2024仙鶴廣西&湖北項目民豐25號機技改2.5萬噸CR3 83.4%仙鶴股份、五洲特紙、冠豪高新煙草配套紙2024仙鶴廣西&湖北項目民豐8號機技改2.5萬噸&2.6萬噸煙用鍍鋁內襯用紙CR3 79.8%仙鶴股份、民豐特紙、恒豐紙業 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.16 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 22：行業進出口量 圖表 23：特紙公司出口占比 資料來源：特紙協會，造紙信息，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 龍頭持續擴張，漿紙一體擴大競爭優勢。龍頭持續擴張，漿紙一體擴大競爭優勢。2023 年

105、行業產量預計平穩增長，根據我們測算，2023 年 CR9 為 61.0%（同比+3.3pct），其中仙鶴、五洲、華旺市占率同比分別+1.1pct、+1.3pct、-0.3pct。龍頭產品附加值提升、拓展產品品類、客戶和市場邊界，產能擴張領先行業，有望憑規模、產業鏈一體化布局等強化成本優勢，行業集中度預計持續提升。仙鶴股份：仙鶴股份：廣西&湖北林漿紙一體化項目 24 年逐步投產，其中廣西聚焦食品醫療及日用消費、湖北聚焦裝飾原紙及食品包材等系列，首期合計將投產 60 萬噸造紙產能以及匹配足量紙漿產能，憑借廣西桉樹、湖北楊樹/蘆葦等豐富資源，漿&紙產能有望快速放量。五洲特紙：五洲特紙：24 年湖北一

106、期（箱板瓦楞紙）有望于 H1 末開機試產，且后續仍有特紙項目持續落地，25 年末總產能有望翻番，成長路徑清晰。此外，30 萬噸化機漿產能持續爬坡（主要供應食品&文化紙），60 萬噸化學漿目前已至環評二次公示，漿紙一體進程加快。華旺科技：華旺科技：公司仍有 40 萬噸特紙產能有待釋放（含裝飾原紙），預計 2024-2025 年逐步投產，且產品切入食品、醫療、工業等特種用紙。冠豪高新：冠豪高新：30 萬噸食品卡 24 年 5 月已投產，6 萬噸熱轉印仍有望于 2024 年釋放增量，且公司已納入 61.2 萬噸新增化機漿產能，投產后有望順利弱化周期影響。齊峰新材：齊峰新材：年產 20 萬噸特種紙項目

107、（一期 8 萬噸），預計 2024H1 建成投產。恒達新材：恒達新材：全資子公司恒川新材“5 萬噸原紙產能和 1 萬噸原紙深加工”項目投產后，總產能有望+50%-60%。圖表 24：特紙行業市占率 資料來源：公司公告，造紙信息，國盛證券研究所（測算數據，存在誤差風險）-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%020406080100120140160180200201820192020202120222023出口量（萬噸）進口量（萬噸）進口量YOY出口量YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20222023市占率（%）201820192020202120222023E仙鶴

108、股份（合計）10.00%10.86%11.96%14.34%16.17%17.24%五洲特紙4.52%5.28%5.92%8.28%13.42%14.76%冠豪高新3.21%3.37%3.50%11.45%12.56%12.24%齊峰新材5.58%4.99%4.46%5.20%4.34%4.93%華旺科技2.17%2.05%1.98%2.83%3.45%4.32%恒豐紙業1.99%2.32%2.26%2.42%2.77%2.94%民豐特紙2.03%2.06%1.88%2.05%2.19%2.20%凱恩股份1.15%1.23%1.30%1.34%1.48%1.12%恒達新材1.01%0.94%0

109、.97%1.08%1.35%1.26%CR931.65%33.10%34.22%48.99%57.74%61.00%2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.17 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 4 家居家居：地產壓力傳導，家居零售化改革、智能化方興未艾：地產壓力傳導，家居零售化改革、智能化方興未艾 4.1 傳統傳統家居：地產壓力逐步傳導，經營分化加速家居：地產壓力逐步傳導，經營分化加速 收入收入&利潤：分化顯現，軟體優于定制利潤：分化顯現，軟體優于定制。消費環境持續承壓、消費者選擇路徑變化對家居企業零售化能力提出考驗，中小企業普遍面臨應變能力不足、供應鏈實力和零售能力難以支撐轉

110、型的問題，行業供給端加速劣汰；截至 2023Q4、2024M2 家居虧損企業數量占比分別為 23.2%/29.3%，分別環比-2.5pct/+6.1pct。地產壓力逐步顯現，竣工進入顯著下行周期，渠道客流量下降明顯，上下游整合和存量房市場擴張成為核心命題，歐派率先開啟零售大家居探索（硬裝+定制+軟裝），且家居龍頭加速探索舊改市場。內銷方面，23Q4 家居龍頭表現持續分化，喜臨門、志邦家居喜臨門、志邦家居收入增長領先（同比+24.4%、+16.9%）；24Q1 低基數下普遍呈現增長態勢，慕思股份、喜臨門、索菲亞、金牌廚柜慕思股份、喜臨門、索菲亞、金牌廚柜增長領先（同比+25.5%、+20.0%、

111、+17.0%、+11.4%）。其中，慕思股份慕思股份依托優勢套餐、開拓家裝渠道、升級賣場門店，線下持續保持靚麗表現，發力電商、增長預計高于線下；喜臨門喜臨門線上線下渠道延續擴張，同時代工業務恢復、跨境電商高增；索菲亞索菲亞多品牌協同發展，整家戰略助力品類連帶率提升，櫥柜、木門均有受益；歐派家居歐派家居零售渠道改革延續、大宗嚴控風險，短期收入表現承壓。軟體家居裝修節奏較為滯后且更新需求占比較高，整體表現優于定制，其中床墊龍頭表現更為突出；從訂單節奏來看，預計 Q2 地產壓力將進一步顯現，多品類協同提效或更新品類占比較高品類增長有望保持領先。外銷來看，海外庫存持續優化，訂單延續持續改善，23Q4、

112、24Q1 顧家家居、敏華控股顧家家居、敏華控股預計外銷增長均高于內銷，喜臨門喜臨門外銷表現靚麗，其中顧家家居、喜臨門等布局跨境電商，預計表現更為靚麗。顧家家居顧家家居越南產能利用率提升驅動盈利顯著修復，美國工廠產能爬坡對床墊收入影響預計 24H2 逐步消除。此外，歐派、志邦、索菲亞、金牌等定制龍頭陸續布局海外市場。圖表 25：定制家居行業主要公司收入及利潤情況（百萬元，%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1歐派家居歐派家居13533.

113、3614739.6920441.6022479.503570.336273.116721.116217.5422782.093621.3214693.2515664.3421644.6023261.795272.148052.548314.327216.5323781.084700.11YOY17.6%8.9%38.7%10.0%-13.8%13.0%2.2%0.1%1.3%1.4%14.9%6.6%38.2%7.5%27.2%8.9%-1.5%3.2%2.2%-10.8%索菲亞索菲亞7686.088352.8310407.0911222.541804.732939.053456.673465

114、.1911665.652111.118230.079146.0311391.7211924.272802.984238.824658.904771.2812971.732977.73YOY5.1%8.7%24.6%7.8%-9.7%5.6%9.6%5.4%3.9%17.0%4.9%11.1%24.6%4.7%40.3%11.9%11.0%19.6%8.8%6.2%志邦家居志邦家居2962.143840.445152.805388.78805.741494.881628.172187.676116.47820.023331.784306.035684.775824.531164.731931.5

115、12045.492661.546590.341064.96YOY21.7%29.7%34.2%4.6%6.2%17.1%9.9%16.9%13.5%1.8%18.6%29.2%32.0%2.5%53.5%13.2%6.5%15.3%13.1%-8.6%金牌廚柜金牌廚柜2125.442639.843447.773553.35574.85931.581040.751098.313645.48640.652428.242985.763863.143880.32855.911350.521322.771538.894086.06936.44YOY24.9%24.2%30.6%3.1%1.1%8.0%-

116、1.6%3.2%2.6%11.4%25.3%23.0%29.4%0.4%50.5%6.6%-5.6%10.6%5.3%9.4%江山歐派江山歐派2026.633011.513157.313208.92682.22919.291103.491032.973737.95626.492307.163199.593353.373503.66995.951218.711383.841313.764018.75866.51YOY58.0%48.6%4.8%1.6%39.0%17.9%17.1%3.7%16.5%-8.2%62.2%38.7%4.8%4.5%102.9%20.9%13.8%1.8%14.7%-

117、13.0%王力安防王力安防1950.912113.912644.912202.72394.68726.44789.061134.083044.25435.162102.572297.032835.402369.88623.53971.331067.731314.273224.44645.02YOY12.9%8.4%25.1%-16.7%11.6%13.3%32.9%84.6%38.2%10.3%10.2%9.2%23.4%-16.4%76.3%14.0%30.9%68.2%36.1%3.4%曲美家居曲美家居4279.364278.745073.264852.50967.24980.04984.

118、371096.114027.76887.274421.264360.815157.764922.921039.311077.171093.641175.284106.93974.11YOY48.0%0.0%18.6%-4.4%-26.3%-19.9%-18.9%-0.5%-17.0%-8.3%47.2%-1.4%18.3%-4.6%-20.8%-18.7%-15.1%0.2%-16.6%-6.3%尚品宅配尚品宅配7260.796513.437309.615314.34808.651261.811441.741387.634899.83776.458579.597821.868295.61593

119、6.551515.822005.502055.542031.675543.871309.78YOY9.3%-10.3%12.2%-27.3%-25.5%3.5%-0.9%-10.7%-7.8%-4.0%8.4%-8.8%6.1%-28.4%39.6%-2.8%-9.2%-6.7%-6.6%-13.6%皮阿諾皮阿諾1471.441493.621823.661451.66178.88391.95357.57387.571315.98174.221557.751641.391980.721592.68353.22544.03512.59572.281500.69337.15YOY32.5%1.5%2

120、2.1%-20.4%-24.2%15.7%-11.8%-17.7%-9.3%-2.6%31.3%5.4%20.7%-19.6%49.7%3.4%-14.3%-6.5%-5.8%-4.5%好萊客好萊客2225.152183.303370.962823.17347.76624.77654.40637.902264.83402.942357.482570.523778.052925.23496.23790.49806.81831.782458.71540.29YOY4.3%-1.9%54.4%-16.3%-43.5%-20.0%-9.8%-9.1%-19.8%15.9%5.2%9.0%47.0%-2

121、2.6%-19.3%-36.1%-7.9%3.5%-15.9%8.9%森鷹窗業森鷹窗業728.37836.53956.63886.9985.80249.76342.73261.36939.6588.57891.18958.371105.71961.83179.89331.85387.69295.60973.88128.93YOY19.2%14.9%14.4%-7.3%-17.6%19.4%-4.0%20.6%5.9%3.2%19.9%7.5%15.4%-13.0%72.7%-12.3%-13.3%1.4%1.3%-28.3%201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202

122、324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1歐派家居歐派家居1839.452062.632665.592688.43152.41980.121177.24725.903035.67217.941680.761935.192510.352592.34129.82941.641129.01545.202745.66142.84YOY17.0%12.1%29.2%0.9%-39.8%28.1%21.1%4.0%12.9%43.0%12.3%15.1%29.7%3.3%-44.4%26.0%20.2%-18.8%5.9%10.0%索菲亞索菲亞1077.43

123、1192.25122.581064.30104.34395.29452.81308.851261.28165.47970.921049.6131.67937.2489.69378.68437.73228.521134.62155.89YOY12.3%10.7%-89.7%768.3%-8.9%32.9%15.6%18.4%18.5%58.6%5.9%8.1%-97.0%2859.0%-15.6%44.5%14.4%22.8%21.1%73.8%志邦家居志邦家居329.43395.44505.52536.7251.54127.79169.98245.75595.0747.22285.24358.

124、75460.10497.5843.32121.43159.79223.60548.1438.97YOY20.7%20.0%27.8%6.2%0.5%20.0%8.2%10.8%10.9%-8.4%12.5%25.8%28.3%8.1%8.7%20.4%2.3%11.4%10.2%-10.0%金牌廚柜金牌廚柜242.50292.65337.98277.0332.7543.7089.80125.78292.0336.41197.75237.34262.94191.3313.0330.2666.12124.36233.7714.10YOY15.4%20.7%15.5%-18.0%8.2%-29.9%

125、24.8%11.8%5.4%11.2%22.3%20.0%10.8%-27.2%-2.9%9.5%20.2%30.5%22.2%8.2%江山歐派江山歐派261.29425.79256.90-298.5158.5083.41149.4798.55389.9328.79228.89393.30215.97-374.3438.3074.78139.4486.76339.2719.14YOY71.1%63.0%-39.7%-216.2%5.6%36.3%274.5%129.9%230.6%-50.8%85.7%71.8%-45.1%-273.3%362.0%57.4%247.5%125.9%190.6

126、%-50.0%王力安防王力安防211.84239.74137.52-42.9915.4133.3746.69-40.8354.6416.12195.85224.97125.75-68.5110.6532.5235.84-32.4846.536.93YOY39.9%13.2%-42.6%-131.3%325.7%678.7%93.9%25.0%227.1%4.6%47.4%14.9%-44.1%-154.5%210.5%509.3%81.7%54.0%167.9%-34.9%曲美家居曲美家居82.16103.85177.9136.96-96.12-60.41-49.37-98.28-304.18

127、-79.4368.6894.87147.61-25.60-74.16-51.73-63.71-97.33-286.93-57.59YOY239.1%26.4%71.3%-79.2%-265.3%-189.6%-242.0%20.3%-923.1%17.4%294.3%38.1%55.6%-117.3%-267.2%-220.6%-274.8%34.8%-1021.0%22.3%尚品宅配尚品宅配528.40101.4089.7046.30-95.3132.3367.0560.7864.85-86.52445.0439.9842.47-17.35-104.3822.6560.8160.0439.1

128、2-94.76YOY10.8%-80.8%-11.5%-48.4%4.9%6599.1%-5.6%-20.1%40.1%9.2%26.9%-91.0%6.2%-140.9%4.4%222.6%23.0%-1.3%325.4%9.2%皮阿諾皮阿諾175.21196.94-728.77153.61-3.8636.4929.0024.3585.98-8.20179.71187.53-732.84110.98-9.8432.5326.277.2356.20-11.81YOY23.3%12.4%-470.0%121.1%-120.7%-10.8%-44.1%-42.3%-44.0%-112.3%47.3

129、%4.3%-490.8%115.1%-160.8%32.6%-38.2%-73.9%-49.4%-20.1%好萊客好萊客364.52276.1465.31431.0612.0172.4893.6739.08217.2412.65322.07242.4838.94248.450.9657.8873.2426.12158.215.07YOY-4.6%-24.2%-76.4%560.1%-70.7%-14.0%-63.3%-22.4%-49.6%5.3%4.6%-24.7%-83.9%538.1%-97.2%-25.0%-14.4%-48.9%-36.3%426.1%森鷹窗業森鷹窗業75.86127

130、.02128.45107.95-5.6148.7477.4025.44145.97-1.7667.67118.75105.8496.50-8.2042.7274.7218.52127.75-8.84YOY26.9%67.4%1.1%-16.0%33.5%50.4%23.5%19.4%35.2%68.6%8.4%75.5%-10.9%-8.8%13.8%32.4%26.8%25.0%32.4%-7.8%營業收入規模及增速營業收入規模及增速收入收入&合同負債規模及增速合同負債規模及增速歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.1

131、8 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 26：軟體家居行業主要公司收入及利潤情況（百萬元，%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 分業務：多品協同下木門延續高增，持續優化整家設計、完善品牌矩陣。分業務：多品協同下木門延續高增，持續優化整家設計、完善品牌矩陣。品類上，龍頭積極推進大家居戰略落地，整家競爭深化、不斷加強場景化設計；品牌上，歐派家居、歐派家居、索菲亞索菲亞等定制龍頭均已建立完善高中低端品牌矩陣，喜臨門、顧家家居喜臨門、顧家家居通過“喜眠”“樂活”等子品牌或子系列拓展中低端用戶群體，同時顧家家居顧家家居在線上嘗試布局中高端。細分來看：1）定制龍頭：多品協同戰略、木門

132、等品類快速增長。23Q4/24Q1 櫥柜表現普遍承壓，衣柜保持穩健增長，伴隨整家戰略推行，木門等協同品類快速增長，索菲亞索菲亞 2023 年木門收入+35.7%，同時不斷提升櫥柜、木門等品類盈利能力；志邦家居志邦家居 2023 年木門新增門店 200+家，收入同比增長 80%，規模效應逐步顯現，23Q4 毛利率 25.2%（+18.3pct），驅動全年木門毛利率同比+10.6pct至21.0%；金牌廚柜金牌廚柜23Q4木門收入同比增長88.7%，驅動全年同比+65%至2.46億元，公司橫向推動品類多元化，櫥衣木品類協同效應深化。此外，定制龍頭積極尋求存量市場突破，聚焦舊改需求，品類延伸至門窗、

133、衛浴、墻地空間等，2021 年歐派舊廚煥新戰略升級，共推出“48 小時舊廚煥新套餐”、“10 天全廚空間改造”兩種模式，2023 年歐派歐派專門成立舊房改造部門，提升舊改業務戰略高度。2）軟體龍頭：床墊品類增長較好，定制業務快速發展。2023 年床墊品類增長較好，顧顧家家居家家居聚焦門店結構轉型，床墊系列門店延續擴張，且加強“樂活”等中低端系列推廣，2023 年床類產品收入同比+15.4%，預計床墊內銷增長高于外銷；喜臨門喜臨門 2023 年末自主品牌專賣店數量合計達 5653 家（+380 家），天貓、京東穩中求進，重點發力抖音等新平臺，核心床墊品類量價齊升，全年收入同比+23.9%至 50

134、.17 億元，銷量同比+20%、單價小個位數提升；慕思股份慕思股份 2023 年床墊收入個位數下滑主要受減少歐派供應影響，2024 歐派基數影響趨弱、床墊恢復較快增長；得益于新品迭代、SKU 標準化和供應鏈降本增效，23Q4/24Q1 床架、沙發等毛利率均呈現提升態勢。定制業務方面，顧家家居顧家家居供應鏈能力深化（全年采購降本率 7%，板材綜合利用率提升至 84%）、融合門店及獨立門店同步擴張，家裝渠道合作加強，整家定制服務能力進一步提升，定制業務收入占比逐步提升。201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q22

135、3Q323Q4202324Q1顧家家居顧家家居11093.5912665.9918341.9518010.453953.544924.395257.885076.2319212.034350.4512585.7514700.0020739.4019541.665373.416385.756578.406679.7420815.545625.21YOY20.9%14.2%44.8%-1.8%-12.9%10.0%10.8%19.5%6.7%10.0%23.6%16.8%41.1%-5.8%18.4%6.1%7.8%15.6%6.5%4.7%喜臨門喜臨門4871.405623.297771.847

136、838.731467.422337.422264.312609.208678.351761.135010.815832.427972.228207.471695.002615.112486.092855.558924.701955.10YOY15.7%15.4%38.2%0.9%4.5%6.2%6.0%24.4%10.7%20.0%14.1%16.4%36.7%3.0%20.7%9.5%4.1%15.8%8.7%15.3%慕思股份慕思股份3862.094452.426481.045812.68957.201442.191406.091773.075578.551201.254092.72474

137、1.016733.005930.131124.201634.791570.141961.915767.391355.16YOY21.2%15.3%45.6%-10.3%-23.1%-4.3%0.3%6.9%-4.0%25.5%20.5%15.8%42.0%-11.9%-9.7%-3.5%0.0%10.4%-2.7%20.5%顧家家居顧家家居1161.16845.471664.451812.05400.10523.41577.58504.872005.96420.19848.84590.661426.771544.07340.49497.05527.23416.221780.99375.54YO

138、Y17.4%-27.2%96.9%8.9%-9.7%16.9%12.7%23.5%10.7%5.0%3.7%-30.4%141.6%8.2%-10.9%24.7%5.4%58.3%15.3%10.3%喜臨門喜臨門380.41313.40558.75237.5561.63160.63168.0138.60428.8774.08264.79313.39495.73204.5050.00162.04168.44-3.83376.6474.30YOY186.8%-17.6%78.3%-57.5%14.3%-3.1%-0.8%125.5%80.5%20.2%156.5%18.4%58.2%-58.7%1

139、.7%3.2%5.9%97.6%84.2%48.6%慕思股份慕思股份333.00536.34686.44708.92101.27254.47162.62283.91802.27141.25425.49575.96677.23650.2097.71248.19155.88281.67783.45133.31YOY53.9%61.1%28.0%3.3%-18.4%39.1%37.5%0.1%13.2%39.5%75.4%35.4%17.6%-4.0%-21.0%34.8%47.0%19.2%20.5%36.4%營業收入規模及增速營業收入規模及增速歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速收入收入&合同負債規

140、模及增速合同負債規模及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.19 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 27：定制家居公司分品類收入及毛利率（億元）資料來源：Wind，各公司 2019-24Q1 經營數據公告，索菲亞 2019-2023 定期報告，國盛證券研究所 圖表 28：軟體家居公司分品類收入及毛利率（億元；%）資料來源：Wind，各公司 2019 年度-2023 年度定期報告，國盛證券研究所 2019A2020A21Q121Q221Q321Q42021A22Q122Q222Q322Q42022A23Q123Q223H123Q

141、323Q42023A24Q1歐派家居收入歐派家居收入61.9360.6112.5919.4521.9021.3475.2913.2419.421.8317.2371.7310.8519.8730.7220.9218.6670.3110.68YOY7.4%-2.1%96.2%25.9%12.7%10.5%24.2%5.1%-0.1%-0.4%-19.3%-4.7%-18.0%2.2%-6.0%-4.1%8.3%-2.0%-1.6%毛利率36.6%36.2%31.7%34.4%33.6%36.7%34.4%30.5%31.6%36.8%36.0%34.0%29.3%30.8%30.3%39.2%3

142、5.5%34.3%25.5%索菲亞收入索菲亞收入8.5112.1114.2012.724.8112.44-YOY20.1%42.3%17.3%-10.4%-10.7%-2.2%-毛利率28.5%22.7%26.3%25.2%22.2%24.8%-志邦家居收入志邦家居收入21.1724.993.607.277.8410.6429.343.656.527.359.8527.373.186.8510.047.4910.8528.383.16YOY9.8%18.0%78.1%19.2%11.2%8.3%17.4%1.3%-10.4%-6.2%-7.4%-6.7%-12.8%5.2%-1.3%1.9%1

143、0.2%3.7%-0.7%毛利率42.4%41.8%41.6%41.9%37.0%41.7%40.5%43.0%40.2%40.1%42.2%41.3%46.5%35.9%39.2%49.4%36.6%40.9%41.5%金牌廚柜收入金牌廚柜收入17.8220.733.546.506.428.3424.803.825.996.827.0023.633.625.859.476.246.6122.323.89YOY16.0%16.4%69.4%46.1%4.0%4.0%19.6%7.9%-7.9%6.2%-16.0%-4.7%-5.2%-2.3%-3.5%-8.5%-5.6%-5.6%7.6%毛利

144、率36.5%32.9%27.6%27.3%31.6%32.8%30.3%29.4%28.5%28.1%30.9%29.2%28.3%29.3%28.9%29.1%29.7%29.2%26.0%歐派家居收入歐派家居收入51.6757.7213.5217.5326.3144.35101.7223.2028.9834.9234.29121.3919.7634.5454.3034.4330.77119.4919.06YOY24.6%11.7%173.5%27.6%35.4%126.2%49.5%40.9%65.3%32.7%-22.7%19.3%-14.8%19.2%4.1%-1.4%-10.3%-1

145、.6%-3.5%毛利率39.9%40.0%33.4%41.8%39.8%23.5%32.2%28.6%35.9%31.0%31.3%31.8%27.7%11.1%33.6%37.6%40.4%36.5%35.6%索菲亞收入索菲亞收入66.0567.0282.6991.7738.7694.11-YOY3.3%1.5%23.4%11.0%-1.0%2.5%-毛利率38.9%40.4%35.7%34.3%36.5%37.8%-志邦家居收入志邦家居收入7.311.42.84.05.15.717.63.35.046.076.6121.033.536.339.866.898.3025.053.84YOY7

146、0.8%55.3%179.4%65.4%33.5%37.1%54.3%19.7%24.5%20.0%15.4%19.5%6.8%25.7%18.2%13.5%25.5%19.1%8.8%毛利率31.6%33.4%33.3%33.1%38.1%32.6%34.4%34.0%36.3%39.3%41.8%38.5%35.6%41.0%39.0%38.4%36.4%38.0%41.1%金牌廚柜收入金牌廚柜收入3.054.991.151.612.033.218.001.522.132.953.029.611.592.624.213.133.1110.441.90YOY121.4%63.5%149.6%

147、47.9%35.5%65.3%60.3%32.1%31.9%45.2%-6.0%20.1%4.6%23.2%15.5%6.1%2.9%8.6%19.9%毛利率26.8%29.7%27.2%26.3%29.5%30.4%28.9%28.9%26.6%26.7%33.5%29.2%27.9%27.8%27.8%31.5%30.5%29.7%28.2%歐派家居收入歐派家居收入5.977.711.652.923.813.9912.362.183.224.004.0613.462.073.695.764.203.8313.782.17YOY25.9%29.0%155.3%71.7%51.7%39.8%6

148、0.4%32.3%10.2%5.2%1.7%8.9%-4.9%14.5%6.7%4.8%-5.7%2.4%5.0%毛利率12.4%14.0%11.5%13.6%17.7%11.2%13.8%10.1%28.2%21.8%5.1%16.4%7.8%28.4%21.0%24.4%18.9%21.5%15.0%索菲亞收入索菲亞收入1.882.924.584.342.235.89-YOY18.8%55.4%56.9%-5.3%21.7%35.7%-毛利率15.9%14.6%17.1%24.0%25.2%29.8%-志邦家居收入志邦家居收入0.280.430.080.220.470.931.700.22

149、0.520.501.042.280.400.901.301.091.714.100.45YOY254.9%57.0%115.7%175.9%306.8%355.2%291.5%183.1%133.6%6.2%11.9%34.2%79.5%74.5%76.0%118.6%64.2%79.9%11.6%毛利率-3.6%16.0%18.3%16.1%8.0%14.4%13.0%8.0%11.9%17.1%6.9%10.4%6.7%22.9%17.9%18.0%25.2%21.0%14.4%金牌廚柜收入金牌廚柜收入0.080.250.080.130.300.330.840.170.340.510.47

150、1.490.300.600.890.680.882.460.25YOY2078.7%222.6%473.8%180.5%273.8%214.6%242.2%107.9%163.5%71.7%41.4%77.3%79.3%75.2%76.5%31.9%88.7%65.0%-14.9%毛利率10.6%0.3%0.5%4.4%3.7%6.0%4.4%5.2%5.8%5.9%10.3%7.2%5.6%3.1%3.9%5.6%11.8%7.2%7.3%4.0%26.4%55.345.2%38.6%3.6646.0%32.5%6.9%-12.5%21.7%16.2%17.7%16.6%93.8%40.4%

151、29.3%25.2%1.722.861.832.502.23木門木門13.2%9.4%-1.0%38.0%34.1%34.0%57.6%6.7%34.6%36.5%34.5948.1039.1652.6138.76衣柜衣柜-4.1%-14.5%-10.7%24.4%27.5%21.9%121.1%-10.3%27.6%22.2%5.628.585.397.334.81櫥柜櫥柜7.622019H12019H22019A2020H12020H22020A2021H12021H22021A2022H12022H22022A2023H12023H22023A顧家家居顧家家居7.2712.2619.53

152、9.0314.3523.3813.9219.4533.3817.2318.3435.5719.1621.8841.04YOY38.0%102.5%72.5%24.2%17.1%19.7%54.2%35.5%42.8%23.8%-5.7%6.6%11.2%19.3%15.4%毛利率42.6%30.6%35.1%35.0%36.0%35.6%34.3%32.5%33.2%34.4%35.9%35.2%35.3%38.7%37.1%喜臨門喜臨門37.6842.7863.8130.8636.5167.37-76.78YOY13.2%13.5%49.1%20.8%-4.6%5.6%-14.0%毛利率37

153、.1%35.7%34.1%33.7%-35.6%慕思股份慕思股份35.0340.0024.3730.7955.1722.7725.1247.8920.0125.7545.76YOY22.5%14.2%-37.9%-6.6%-18.4%-13.2%-12.1%2.5%-4.4%毛利率55.1%52.0%49.6%49.6%49.6%50.1%-喜臨門喜臨門27.3228.5539.6119.5020.9840.48-50.17YOY4.5%4.5%38.7%29.3%-14.3%2.2%-23.9%毛利率36.6%35.2%36.2%-36.8%-38.3%慕思股份慕思股份22.5123.961

154、4.2517.9432.1912.8714.4127.2811.4614.3525.81YOY22.6%6.4%-34.3%-9.7%-19.7%-15.2%-11.0%-0.4%-5.4%毛利率61.2%59.3%57.5%57.0%57.2%57.7%60.0%58.9%62.6%62.1%62.3%喜臨門喜臨門10.3614.2324.2011.3615.5426.90-26.61YOY45.0%37.3%70.0%9.0%12.8%11.2%-1.1%毛利率38.6%36.7%30.8%-29.0%-30.5%慕思股份慕思股份12.5216.0410.1212.8622.989.901

155、0.7120.618.5511.3919.95YOY22.2%28.1%-43.3%-2.2%-16.7%-10.3%-13.6%6.4%-3.2%毛利率44.2%41.1%38.6%39.2%38.9%40.2%-顧家家居顧家家居28.2430.0758.3124.1539.9864.1341.1751.5092.6847.0942.6389.7243.2650.2493.50YOY31.7%0.2%13.3%-14.5%33.0%10.0%70.5%28.8%44.5%14.4%-17.2%-3.2%-8.1%17.8%4.2%毛利率56.4%49.4%52.6%49.7%51.2%50.

156、6%51.4%49.9%50.5%52.2%47.4%49.8%33.7%37.6%35.8%喜臨門喜臨門6.197.1810.544.894.139.02-7.70YOY6.4%15.9%46.9%9.0%-31.8%-14.5%-14.6%毛利率26.6%28.4%21.9%-25.3%-25.6%慕思股份慕思股份3.592.144.501.862.474.34YOY-25.4%-13.1%-3.6%顧家家居顧家家居1.382.053.431.353.214.562.943.676.603.544.077.623.934.878.80YOY67.6%58.0%61.7%-2.2%56.5%

157、32.9%118.3%14.0%44.8%20.7%11.1%15.3%11.0%19.6%15.6%毛利率30.7%39.2%35.8%34.1%36.5%35.8%32.2%32.6%32.4%32.9%33.2%33.1%28.3%26.9%27.5%定制定制床類產品床類產品床墊床墊軟床及配套軟床及配套沙發沙發 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.20 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 分渠道分渠道：零售增長壓力顯現，零售增長壓力顯現，工程渠道增長工程渠道增長分化分化。1）零售：增長壓力顯現。23 年、24Q1商品住宅銷售面積累計同比-8.2%、-23.4%，商品住宅竣

158、工面積累計同比+17.2%、-21.9%；新房銷售持續低迷，竣工壓力逐步傳導，24Q1 歐派家居、志邦家居、金牌廚柜、江山歐派零售渠道收入分別同比-2.7%、+0.6%、-7.9%、-23.7%，志邦家居志邦家居零售表現相對優異主要系渠道擴張延續、整家戰略驅動多品類增長。此外，家居零售化轉型加速，顧家家居顧家家居倉配服成效顯著（2023 年累計建倉覆蓋率超 30%，覆蓋倉儲面積超 10 萬平方米，嘉好倉零售周轉加速 5 天，整體存貨周轉縮短 14 天、提升 19%）。2）工程：客戶結構優化、競爭加劇。家居龍頭不斷提高風險控制，客戶結構持續改善，逐步形成國央企為主的客戶結構，同時逐步加強與非地產

159、客戶合作，開拓酒店、學校、醫院等增量業務，客戶結構優化，但競爭持續加劇，24Q1 歐派家居、志邦家居、金牌廚柜歐派家居、志邦家居、金牌廚柜大宗渠道低基數下保持較快增長，分別同比+18.8%、+9.7%、+24.7%；江山歐派受基數影響，同時保交樓交付下降，24Q1 同比-5.6%。圖表 29：定制家居公司收入-分渠道（億元）資料來源：Wind，各公司 2019-24Q1 經營數據公告，索菲亞 2019-2023 定期報告，國盛證券研究所 門店方面：渠道結構優化，顧家、志邦、金牌等延續門店擴張態勢。門店方面：渠道結構優化，顧家、志邦、金牌等延續門店擴張態勢。2023 年末歐派家居歐派家居門店數較

160、年初凈增 40 家至 8716 家（口徑調整），以調整后口徑（2022 年門店數調整為8676 家）計算單店收入 211 萬元、同比基本持平，公司持續推動渠道改革，零售大家居和整裝大家居齊頭并進，優化終端單店結構、伴隨店態模型及經銷商磨合逐步成熟，預計零售大家居門店占比進一步提高；索菲亞索菲亞多品牌協同發展，整家戰略 3.0 全面升級，客單值持續提升同時加速開拓櫥柜、衛浴、門窗和墻地市場，2023 年索菲亞品牌客單價達 19619 元（同比+6.3%），米蘭納門店快速增長，2023 年末門店總數較年初-333 家至3767 家（主要系司米品牌門店顯著減少），但單店收入同比提升 14%。顧家家居

161、顧家家居/志邦志邦家居家居/金牌廚柜金牌廚柜等門店延續擴張，2023 年凈開店數分別為 203/352/180 家，顧家家居顧家家居持續擴張融合大店及整裝渠道，門店經營面積穩健增長，其中定制開店及收入保持較高增長，整裝顧家星選 2.0 穩步推進，單店收入同比+3%；志邦家居志邦家居推動持續強化南方市場部署和空白區域下沉，同時強化門店整家戰略落地、單店收入同比+0.7%；金牌廚柜金牌廚柜開啟一城多商、分商圈招商，依托平臺辦事處開拓分銷渠道。2019A2020A21Q121Q221Q321Q42021A22Q122Q222Q322Q42022A23Q123Q223H123Q323Q42023A24

162、Q1歐派家居歐派家居109.0115.824.839.450.548.0162.733.547.353.448.8182.928.552.080.452.850.8184.027.7YOY6.2%174.9%39.7%28.8%21.7%40.4%34.7%20.1%5.8%1.6%12.4%-15.0%10.0%-0.4%-1.1%4.2%0.6%-2.7%毛利率36.0%35.2%29.9%34.9%33.2%27.9%31.5%27.8%34.5%33.8%29.3%31.7%27.6%34.5%32.1%39.4%35.1%35.0%33.0%索菲亞索菲亞67.168.113.921.

163、625.725.887.016.623.527.327.695.015.024.839.899.4-YOY1.5%22.2%4.4%27.8%19.6%8.8%5.9%7.2%9.2%-9.7%5.5%-0.8%4.6%-志邦家居志邦家居21.024.65.17.59.29.831.55.78.49.89.033.05.59.515.09.811.235.95.5YOY17.2%140.5%25.9%12.1%16.8%28.0%13.2%11.5%7.0%-7.4%4.6%-3.9%13.5%6.4%-0.6%23.7%9.0%0.6%毛利率39.4%38.4%37.3%38.3%36.4%

164、38.1%37.5%37.6%37.8%41.3%37.6%38.8%41.0%40.1%40.5%42.3%35.3%39.4%41.7%金牌廚柜金牌廚柜15.316.03.04.75.47.720.73.34.625.576.119.63.25.08.15.85.819.82.9YOY4.2%99.7%27.3%9.8%29.0%29.4%9.7%-0.6%3.2%-20.1%-5.3%-4.3%8.0%2.9%4.1%-4.6%0.9%-7.9%毛利率40.1%39.0%34.3%35.7%38.4%41.3%38.3%37.5%36.3%35.5%42.4%38.2%36.5%34.9

165、%35.5%39.2%34.1%36.2%36.2%江山歐派江山歐派2.22.50.71.61.92.76.91.32.32.62.78.81.72.74.42.92.59.81.3YOY-26.2%13.0%270.6%211.2%112.7%210.1%180.5%74.3%42.0%36.9%-2.9%26.4%32.6%19.6%24.2%13.3%-5.6%11.9%-23.7%毛利率17.6%24.2%20.5%16.8%19.8%26.5%21.8%17.2%21.3%21.8%24.4%21.8%19.2%24.1%23.5%67.6%24.2%19.3%歐派家居歐派家居21.

166、626.87.28.610.510.436.76.77.010.610.634.95.98.914.812.09.135.97.0YOY52.5%24.1%89.7%30.5%33.1%21.9%36.9%-7.0%-19.5%1.4%2.5%-4.8%-13.0%28.6%8.1%12.9%-14.7%2.6%18.8%毛利率34.6%32.7%30.2%30.4%30.6%31.8%30.8%27.1%29.2%27.3%28.0%27.9%20.0%33.3%28.0%26.3%20.8%25.6%15.9%索菲亞索菲亞9.415.13.63.73.65.116.03.33.63.74.

167、715.33.03.46.414.5-YOY60.9%60.7%-14.2%-34.2%6.2%-9.3%-0.2%0.7%-9.2%-4.9%-10.0%-6.1%-7.9%-4.9%-志邦家居志邦家居6.411.71.33.94.17.216.51.33.53.88.016.61.34.35.65.39.120.11.5YOY63.7%83.7%52.7%55.8%53.6%26.2%40.6%-1.5%-11.7%-5.9%10.8%0.4%4.5%23.2%18.2%40.1%14.0%21.2%9.7%毛利率42.0%41.5%42.1%39.8%38.0%37.4%38.5%40.

168、9%38.0%35.3%44.1%40.5%32.6%33.5%33.3%43.8%34.2%36.5%36.5%金牌廚柜金牌廚柜5.08.91.43.23.03.911.41.83.14.23.712.81.93.35.23.54.012.82.3YOY149.3%76.8%68.5%99.2%14.2%0.4%28.2%27.9%-2.8%42.5%-5.5%11.8%5.3%8.9%7.6%-16.7%8.2%-0.3%24.7%毛利率20.0%18.5%11.8%14.6%14.2%12.2%13.3%12.1%14.5%15.1%15.3%14.6%9.7%15.8%13.6%12.

169、3%20.4%15.4%11.5%江山歐派江山歐派16.826.13.67.06.35.322.23.24.96.37.521.84.86.110.87.67.125.54.5YOY78.2%54.8%38.3%5.1%-24.1%-37.7%-14.9%-11.2%-30.0%-0.3%40.3%-1.7%49.6%23.6%33.9%20.8%-4.5%17.0%-5.6%毛利率34.2%33.6%30.9%33.5%37.4%25.6%32.3%28.2%29.3%29.3%12.7%23.5%20.7%24.1%22.6%23.8%28.8%24.7%14.8%大宗渠道大宗渠道零售渠道

170、零售渠道59.658.8%8.6%8.1135.2%-2.3%2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.21 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 30：定制家居公司零售單店收入對比 圖表 31：軟體家居公司零售單店收入對比 資料來源：Wind，各公司 2017-2023 經營數據公告，國盛證券研究所 注：金牌門店數未包含陽臺衛浴和瑪尼歐門店；歐派門店口徑調整，括號內為按照調整后口徑計算的值 資料來源：Wind，各公司 2017-2023 經營數據公告，國盛證券研究所 盈利能力：盈利能力：原料價格走低疊加降本增效效果顯現，盈利穩中有進。原料價格走低疊加降本增效效果顯現，盈利穩中有

171、進。原材料方面，24Q1 布和乳膠價格同環比均有小幅回升，軟泡聚醚 24Q1 價格延續下降，皮革價格同比仍處低位。此外，龍頭重視降本增效，持續提升營運效率，定制家居龍頭推進齊套交付模式，板材利用率穩步提升，23Q4 歐派家居、索菲亞歐派家居、索菲亞毛利率分別+4.11pct/+4.07pct 至34.60%/37.42%；軟體家居中喜臨門喜臨門床墊占比提升疊加優化供應鏈共同驅動毛利率增長、慕思股份慕思股份兼縮減低效 SKU 且加強成本控制，23Q4 毛利率分別同比+5.15pct/+2.73pct 至34.71%/49.22%，24Q1 毛利率同比+1.06pct/+1.76pct 至 33.

172、46%/50.15%。圖表 32：定制家居行業主要公司盈利能力（%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 2017201820192020202120222023零售收入（百萬元）829895531090311583162671828818403門店數590867087062711274757615(8676)8716單店收入（萬元）140.5142.4154.4162.9217.6240.2(210.8)211.1YOY1.4%8.4%5.5%33.6%10.4%-12.1%(+0.1%)零售收入（百萬元）5843668667106812870395029942門店數3035355837365

173、040486341003767單店收入（萬元）192.52187.91179.60135.15178.96231.75263.93YOY-2.4%-4.4%-24.7%32.4%29.5%13.9%零售收入（百萬元）1644186121312462315232963595門店數1759236328273232374242314583單店收入（萬元）93.4878.7675.4076.1784.2377.9178.43YOY-15.7%-4.3%1.0%10.6%-7.5%0.7%零售收入（百萬元）1242142115351600207019601977門店數125017592144249331

174、3037293909單店收入（萬元）99.3680.7871.5864.1866.1552.5750.58YOY-18.7%-11.4%-10.3%3.1%-20.5%-3.8%歐派家居歐派家居索菲亞索菲亞志邦家居志邦家居金牌廚柜金牌廚柜2017201820192020202120222023內銷收入（百萬元）4036.495209.846096.877649.1310712.4610303.5010935.31門店數4935607664866691645667436946單店收入（萬元）81.885.794.0114.3165.9152.8157.4YOY4.8%9.6%21.6%45.1%

175、-7.9%3.0%自主品牌零售（百萬元）1349.051903.832328.633084.705054.395091.675489.21門店數1517202021682340389947025163單店收入（萬元）88.9394.25107.41131.82129.63108.29106.32YOY6.0%14.0%22.7%-1.7%-16.5%-1.8%內銷收入（百萬元）-6377.505706.595482.03門店數-490056005700單店收入（萬元）-130.15101.9096.18YOY-21.7%-5.6%顧家家居顧家家居喜臨門喜臨門慕思股份慕思股份2019202020

176、21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1歐派家居歐派家居35.84%35.01%31.62%31.61%26.68%34.27%37.62%34.60%34.16%29.98%26.16%27.23%24.84%24.14%16.93%25.77%29.43%25.75%25.46%18.39%YOY()-2.54%-0.82%-3.39%-0.01%-0.98%0.26%4.49%4.11%2.55%3.30%-1.99%1.08%-2.39%-0.70%-1.60%-0.33%3.88%1.

177、11%1.32%1.46%索菲亞索菲亞37.33%36.56%33.21%32.99%33.25%35.74%36.76%37.42%36.15%32.62%27.37%27.39%23.51%23.05%21.98%26.29%27.34%28.19%26.50%22.48%YOY()-0.25%-0.77%-3.35%-0.22%1.93%3.31%2.58%4.07%3.16%-0.63%-0.62%0.02%-3.88%-0.46%2.83%3.55%1.70%4.98%3.44%0.50%志邦家居志邦家居38.53%38.07%36.24%37.69%36.89%36.75%40.6

178、9%34.65%37.07%37.22%22.91%23.14%21.58%22.25%19.34%23.08%25.94%20.76%22.52%18.43%YOY()2.58%-0.46%-1.83%1.44%1.81%-0.20%3.23%-4.77%-0.62%0.33%0.68%0.22%-1.56%0.67%0.60%2.86%2.78%-3.59%0.27%-0.91%金牌廚柜金牌廚柜35.84%32.73%30.48%29.46%29.11%27.77%29.80%31.16%29.58%28.01%19.93%20.95%18.72%17.32%14.57%15.13%17.

179、69%21.04%17.55%14.71%YOY()-3.15%-3.12%-2.24%-1.02%-0.81%-0.53%1.94%-0.58%0.12%-1.11%-0.63%1.01%-2.23%-1.40%-0.69%-0.65%2.22%-0.47%0.23%0.14%江山歐派江山歐派32.22%32.20%29.10%23.85%21.67%24.86%26.76%29.12%26.02%18.76%23.61%26.31%20.75%14.48%14.49%16.65%21.29%20.00%18.55%10.59%YOY()-0.51%-0.01%-3.11%-5.24%-3.

180、24%-6.19%3.38%10.97%2.16%-2.91%0.76%2.69%-5.56%-6.27%1.89%-0.39%4.00%9.26%4.07%-3.90%王力安防王力安防29.21%31.84%24.45%24.46%27.32%26.15%27.91%26.13%26.75%23.09%18.26%21.01%13.48%13.28%15.03%15.16%14.60%15.79%15.23%10.33%YOY()0.75%2.63%-7.39%0.01%4.37%5.36%2.15%-1.79%2.29%-4.23%1.54%2.74%-7.53%-0.21%5.67%5.

181、94%0.18%-2.87%1.96%-4.70%曲美家居曲美家居43.59%43.41%35.83%32.29%30.18%31.26%32.87%32.89%31.84%30.97%18.82%20.32%18.55%14.82%8.76%11.60%12.81%14.46%11.99%10.55%YOY()1.18%-0.18%-7.58%-3.53%-5.40%-1.53%-1.43%7.28%-0.46%0.79%0.71%1.50%-1.77%-3.72%-10.76%-4.67%-3.58%8.56%-2.83%1.79%尚品宅配尚品宅配41.57%33.23%33.17%34.

182、62%30.98%36.11%35.22%36.03%34.98%27.81%14.41%8.96%9.04%10.97%0.31%14.11%16.48%15.49%12.92%1.45%YOY()-2.11%-8.33%-0.07%1.45%-0.66%1.70%-1.49%1.13%0.36%-3.17%0.22%-5.45%0.08%1.93%-0.54%2.67%2.08%1.04%1.95%1.14%皮阿諾皮阿諾35.78%34.08%33.96%30.02%24.43%29.12%31.24%30.61%29.50%21.77%21.62%25.50%24.04%19.35%9.

183、33%19.35%20.39%21.58%18.93%6.81%YOY()-0.16%-1.70%-0.12%-3.94%-5.33%-0.93%2.32%-0.46%-0.52%-2.65%-0.60%3.88%-1.45%-4.69%-8.69%1.73%1.87%-0.39%-0.42%-2.52%好萊客好萊客40.06%36.70%33.94%35.15%35.53%36.05%37.37%31.47%35.06%33.18%26.54%25.80%24.47%25.05%18.75%24.19%25.66%18.49%22.17%17.87%YOY()0.50%-3.37%-2.76

184、%1.22%-0.24%-0.48%1.84%-1.21%-0.09%-2.36%1.72%-0.74%-1.33%0.57%-6.17%-1.86%-0.53%-4.38%-2.87%-0.88%森鷹窗業森鷹窗業38.19%38.61%29.65%33.34%26.32%34.25%40.06%36.19%36.19%16.04%24.65%29.70%20.47%27.42%13.24%28.91%36.21%26.69%29.53%1.26%YOY()2.50%0.42%-8.96%3.69%-1.02%2.95%4.47%1.70%2.84%-10.28%-0.01%5.05%-9.2

185、3%6.95%-2.89%2.98%4.70%-0.84%2.11%-11.98%201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1歐派家居歐派家居13.59%13.99%13.04%11.96%4.27%15.62%17.52%11.67%13.32%6.02%19.24%17.30%18.50%16.29%0.92%5.96%6.96%4.08%16.76%1.20%YOY()-0.07%0.40%-0.95%-1.08%-1.84%1.84%2.73%0.44%1.37%1.75

186、%-1.55%-1.95%1.20%-2.21%-0.82%0.71%0.52%-0.25%0.47%0.27%索菲亞索菲亞14.02%14.27%1.18%9.48%5.78%13.45%13.10%8.91%10.81%7.84%19.79%19.47%2.17%18.41%1.79%6.86%7.71%4.71%17.98%2.35%YOY()0.90%0.26%-13.10%8.31%0.05%2.76%0.68%0.98%1.33%2.06%-0.06%-0.32%-17.30%16.23%-0.22%1.57%0.83%0.24%-0.43%0.56%志邦家居志邦家居11.12%1

187、0.30%9.81%9.96%6.40%8.55%10.44%11.23%9.73%5.76%17.08%17.75%19.51%18.65%1.77%4.42%5.78%7.78%18.10%1.42%YOY()-0.10%-0.82%-0.49%0.15%-0.36%0.21%-0.17%-0.62%-0.23%-0.64%2.50%0.67%1.76%-0.87%-0.22%0.19%-0.37%-0.26%-0.55%-0.35%金牌廚柜金牌廚柜11.41%11.09%9.80%7.80%5.70%4.69%8.63%11.45%8.01%5.68%20.03%16.03%14.02%

188、10.68%1.25%1.67%3.39%4.62%10.55%1.31%YOY()-0.94%-0.32%-1.28%-2.01%0.37%-2.53%1.83%0.88%0.21%-0.01%-1.36%-4.00%-2.01%-3.34%0.01%-0.92%0.41%0.17%-0.13%0.06%江山歐派江山歐派12.89%14.14%8.14%-9.30%8.58%9.07%13.54%9.54%10.43%4.60%19.91%25.83%13.95%-21.10%4.05%6.04%10.98%6.64%25.42%1.86%YOY()0.99%1.25%-6.00%-17.4

189、4%-2.71%1.22%22.63%42.62%19.73%-3.98%6.00%5.92%-11.88%-35.05%1.09%2.87%15.61%27.49%46.52%-2.19%王力安防王力安防10.86%11.34%5.20%-1.95%3.90%4.59%5.92%-3.60%1.79%3.70%24.62%21.79%7.96%-2.60%0.93%2.03%2.85%-2.48%3.37%0.99%YOY()2.09%0.48%-6.14%-7.15%5.83%5.49%1.86%5.27%3.75%-0.20%6.42%-2.83%-13.83%-10.56%1.32%2

190、.37%1.43%0.75%5.96%0.06%曲美家居曲美家居1.92%2.43%3.51%0.76%-9.94%-6.16%-5.02%-8.97%-7.55%-8.95%5.47%4.81%8.82%1.68%-4.56%-2.99%-2.49%-5.11%-16.00%-3.83%YOY()3.96%0.51%1.08%-2.75%-14.37%-11.67%-7.88%2.23%-8.31%0.99%9.85%-0.67%4.01%-7.13%-7.37%-6.19%-4.13%0.58%-17.69%0.73%尚品宅配尚品宅配7.28%1.56%1.23%0.87%-11.79%2

191、.56%4.65%4.38%1.32%-11.14%15.02%2.89%2.51%1.29%-2.70%0.93%1.90%1.70%1.79%-2.31%YOY()0.10%-5.72%-0.33%-0.36%-2.55%2.60%-0.23%-0.51%0.45%0.64%-0.63%-12.13%-0.39%-1.21%0.14%0.94%-0.13%-0.44%0.50%0.39%皮阿諾皮阿諾11.91%13.19%-39.96%10.58%-2.16%9.31%8.11%6.28%6.53%-4.71%14.92%10.25%-63.33%12.15%-0.31%2.85%2.21

192、%1.82%6.37%-0.61%YOY()-0.89%1.28%-53.15%50.54%-10.07%-2.76%-4.67%-2.68%-4.05%-2.55%1.11%-4.67%-73.58%75.47%-1.93%-0.67%-2.12%-1.57%-5.78%-0.30%好萊客好萊客16.38%12.65%1.94%15.27%3.45%11.60%14.31%6.13%9.59%3.14%14.30%10.46%2.47%14.17%0.39%2.43%3.17%1.28%7.01%0.41%YOY()-1.54%-3.73%-10.71%13.33%-3.20%0.81%-2

193、0.90%-1.05%-5.68%-0.31%-2.25%-3.83%-8.00%11.70%-1.15%-0.68%-5.76%-0.39%-7.15%0.01%森鷹窗業森鷹窗業10.42%15.18%13.43%12.17%-6.53%19.51%22.58%9.73%15.53%-1.99%12.43%17.45%15.00%6.04%-0.31%2.77%4.36%1.39%7.92%-0.10%YOY()0.63%4.77%-1.76%-1.26%1.56%4.02%5.03%-0.10%3.36%4.55%1.25%5.02%-2.45%-8.96%0.68%-0.98%-0.37

194、%0.19%1.88%0.22%歸母凈利率歸母凈利率ROEROE毛銷差毛銷差毛利率毛利率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.22 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 33：軟體家居行業主要公司盈利能力（%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 4.2 智能家居：滲透率穩步提升，國產替代延續，價格競爭激烈智能家居：滲透率穩步提升，國產替代延續，價格競爭激烈 收入收入&利潤：國產替代趨勢延續，競爭加劇下“以價換量”越發明顯利潤：國產替代趨勢延續，競爭加劇下“以價換量”越發明顯 智能馬桶：智能馬桶：國產替代延續，競爭激烈、價格進一步下探。根據奧維云網數據，2023 年智能坐便器

195、線上零售額為 68.4 億元（同比+10.0%），24Q1 線上智能坐便器零售額規模為7.7 億元（同比-20.0%）；行業以價換量（2019-24Q1 智能一體機行業均價由近 2700 元下探至 2000 元+），內資品牌依托生產制造&渠道優勢，加碼布局輕智能產品滲透下沉市場，加速搶占市場份額。圖表 34：智能坐便器線上零售額規模及增速 圖表 35：線上智能一體機均價趨勢 資料來源：奧維云網，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：奧維云網，國盛證券研究所 智能馬桶：輕智能占比提升，瑞爾特自主品牌持續放量智能馬桶：輕智能占比提升，瑞爾特自主品牌持續放量。23Q4 箭牌家居/瑞爾特分別實現收入 23.68/

196、6.38 億元（同比+5.4%/+11.3%）、24Q1 分別實現收入 11.35/5.23 億元（同比+2.3%/+32.3%）；其中，箭牌家居箭牌家居推進零售門店、家裝和電商等全渠道擴張，加碼輕智能馬桶產品，持續上市 X7ZOOM、H2 等系列智能座便器，價格相對更低的輕智能產品占比提升拉低毛利水平；此外，24Q1 出口訂單影響公司毛利率，23Q4/24Q1 毛利率分別為 25.9%（-4.24pct）/24.4%（-6.04pct）；瑞爾特瑞爾特智能座便器及蓋板業務快速增長，自主品牌持續放量，線上渠道依托抖音引流表現亮眼，線下加速拓展建材店中店及家電渠道，市場份額加速提升，同時由于自主品

197、牌占比持續提升，驅動盈利中樞上移，23Q4/24Q1 毛利率分別為 32.02%（+9.37pct）/30.24%（+5.01pct），伴隨智能馬桶均價探底&內資品牌份額提升，公司降本增效成效釋放（精簡 SKU、提升自產率等），盈利能力有望保持穩定。智能晾曬：智能新品迭代，供應鏈提效。智能晾曬：智能新品迭代，供應鏈提效。根據 CSHIA Research 數據，2023 年中國智能201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1顧家家居顧家家居34.86%35.21%28.87%30

198、.83%32.13%31.01%33.76%34.18%32.83%33.08%16.17%15.52%14.13%14.44%15.25%15.54%17.33%13.05%15.31%15.67%YOY()-1.51%0.35%-6.34%1.97%2.28%2.94%3.70%-1.48%2.00%0.95%-0.70%-0.65%-1.39%0.32%0.06%2.74%2.01%-1.35%0.87%0.42%喜臨門喜臨門34.75%33.76%32.00%32.40%32.39%37.01%32.52%34.71%34.37%33.46%18.08%17.63%16.64%12.8

199、8%12.44%17.71%14.27%11.65%14.10%14.30%YOY()5.91%-0.99%-1.76%0.40%-1.87%3.35%-0.16%5.15%1.96%1.06%11.62%-0.45%-0.99%-3.76%-1.89%0.57%-2.53%8.20%1.22%1.86%慕思股份慕思股份53.49%49.28%44.98%46.47%48.39%52.20%50.98%49.22%50.29%50.15%22.18%24.46%20.35%21.42%22.35%28.95%21.52%26.26%25.09%23.60%YOY()53.49%-4.21%-4

200、.30%1.50%3.38%5.29%3.70%2.73%3.82%1.76%52.91%2.28%-4.11%1.07%0.59%5.39%3.44%4.23%3.67%1.25%顧家家居顧家家居10.47%6.68%9.07%10.06%10.12%10.63%10.99%9.95%10.44%9.66%19.66%12.54%20.76%20.40%4.41%5.51%6.05%5.32%20.88%4.29%YOY()-0.32%-3.79%2.40%0.99%0.36%0.63%0.19%0.32%0.38%-0.46%-1.49%-7.12%8.21%-0.35%-0.98%0.0

201、8%-0.14%0.62%0.47%-0.12%喜臨門喜臨門7.81%5.57%7.19%3.03%4.20%6.87%7.42%1.48%4.94%4.21%14.33%10.66%17.46%6.79%1.75%4.43%4.56%1.05%11.59%1.98%YOY()18.22%-2.24%1.62%-4.16%0.36%-0.66%-0.51%8.70%1.91%0.01%33.51%-3.67%6.81%-10.67%0.07%-0.54%-0.23%5.29%4.80%0.24%慕思股份慕思股份8.62%12.05%10.59%12.20%10.58%17.64%11.57%1

202、6.01%14.38%11.76%31.84%28.53%26.75%16.27%2.30%5.80%3.70%6.23%17.29%3.03%YOY()1.83%3.42%-1.45%1.60%0.61%5.51%3.12%-1.08%2.19%1.18%2.19%-3.31%-1.78%-10.48%-2.42%0.61%0.89%-0.50%1.03%0.73%毛利率毛利率毛銷差毛銷差歸母凈利率歸母凈利率ROE-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010203040506070802019202020212022202324Q1零售額（億元，左軸）YOY（%，右軸）2000210

203、022002300240025002600270020192020202120222023均價（元）均價（元）2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.23 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 晾衣機市場規模預計同比+20.2%，好太太好太太市占率超 30%、承接行業增長紅利，23Q4、24Q1分別實現收入5.72億元（+53.0%）、2.92億元（+5.7%），毛利率分別同比+3.30pct、+6.23pct 至 53.05%、51.94%，高毛利智能產品占比提升驅動盈利能力提升。我們預計，隨著智能晾曬新品迭代，單價中樞保持穩定，配合供應鏈化深化布局，自供比例增加，盈利能力有望提升

204、。此外，面對行業競爭加劇、消費需求走低的外部環境，好太太好太太持續深化渠道建設，維持線上渠道優勢的同時加快線下渠道改革（區域化政策、通路拓展、尾部經銷商淘汰等），不斷優化單店模型。圖表 36：重點智能家居企業收入及利潤情況一覽（百萬元，%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 37：重點智能家居企業盈利能力一覽（%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 期間費用期間費用：智能產品處于快速滲透階段，品牌&產品打造需要持續投入。瑞爾特瑞爾特銷售費率持續提升、23Q4&24Q1 分別同比+13.61pct/+5.84pct 至 17.86%/11.66%，好太太23Q4&24Q1 銷售費率分別同比

205、+0.58pct/+3.14%；此外，瑞爾特、好太太瑞爾特、好太太持續投入研發強化產品競爭力，23Q4 研發費率分別同比+0.68pct、0.39pct，24Q1 研發費率分別同比+0.07pct、0.57pct。圖表 38：重點智能家居企業期間費率一覽（%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1箭牌家居箭牌家居6657.956502.388373.487513.461109.562324.181846.332368.107648.181

206、134.646942.576699.218614.607779.941366.032624.402208.902732.928012.991438.39YOY-2.2%-2.3%28.8%-10.3%-1.7%6.7%-5.8%5.4%1.8%2.3%-2.7%-3.5%28.6%-9.7%21.1%8.8%0.7%8.8%3.0%5.3%瑞爾特瑞爾特1109.441284.201868.291959.59395.61577.86572.64638.312184.42523.381152.691307.651896.381995.80472.84690.97691.71735.952282.0

207、6631.73YOY11.6%15.8%45.5%4.9%-2.8%17.0%18.0%11.3%11.5%32.3%14.9%13.4%45.0%5.2%16.2%22.7%31.1%20.7%14.3%33.6%好太太好太太1260.271160.011425.451382.02276.23442.49397.29572.321688.33292.061299.381192.241500.621422.95337.31472.99427.04594.171710.17317.44YOY-3.8%-8.0%22.9%-3.0%13.3%16.7%3.2%53.0%22.2%5.7%-4.9%

208、-8.2%25.9%-5.2%38.4%13.4%5.8%43.2%20.2%-5.9%箭牌家居箭牌家居556.25588.51577.15593.033.11168.18116.16137.19424.64-90.35506.93533.47532.65540.73-15.54165.12111.92130.35391.85-105.70YOY182.2%5.8%-1.9%2.8%-88.1%-20.8%-36.9%-19.5%-28.4%-3004.0%651.7%5.2%-0.2%1.5%-35.4%64.6%164.6%264.6%瑞爾特瑞爾特181.54114.63139.36210

209、.9439.7973.5362.5342.73218.5858.55162.0983.61114.33192.6434.6170.5657.5337.38200.0953.46YOY12.7%-36.9%21.6%51.4%8.7%57.0%-11.6%-24.7%3.6%47.1%12.5%-48.4%36.8%68.5%8.4%60.3%-15.5%-23.1%3.9%54.5%好太太好太太279.47265.75300.22218.5948.27102.0188.0788.91327.2655.55245.48227.85278.90220.9747.86100.7280.2294.20

210、323.0155.40YOY7.2%-4.9%13.0%-27.2%6.6%74.7%28.4%92.1%49.7%15.1%10.9%-7.2%22.4%-20.8%15.1%53.7%16.2%110.1%46.2%15.8%扣非歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速收入收入&合同負債規模及增速合同負債規模及增速營業收入規模及增速營業收入規模及增速歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1箭牌家居箭牌家居32.47%31.46%30.06%32

211、.85%30.44%28.96%29.36%25.94%28.34%24.40%23.72%23.18%20.53%23.32%20.85%21.00%21.01%19.30%20.45%17.24%YOY()7.45%-1.00%-1.40%2.78%-5.47%-5.33%-3.17%-4.24%-4.51%-6.04%9.63%-0.55%-2.65%2.80%-3.56%-4.78%-1.94%-1.43%-2.87%-3.61%瑞爾特瑞爾特30.40%24.16%22.59%24.81%25.22%29.73%29.54%32.02%29.53%30.24%25.47%20.16%1

212、7.52%18.52%19.41%22.30%19.45%14.16%18.65%18.58%YOY()1.58%-6.23%-1.58%2.22%0.30%4.13%3.08%9.37%4.72%5.01%0.64%-5.31%-2.63%1.00%1.07%3.54%0.87%-4.24%0.13%-0.83%好太太好太太49.52%48.41%45.09%46.37%45.72%51.41%52.77%53.05%51.35%51.94%32.58%32.77%30.84%27.70%26.91%33.66%32.91%29.67%31.03%29.99%YOY()6.86%-1.10%

213、-3.32%1.27%2.37%6.85%6.00%3.30%4.99%6.23%4.35%0.19%-1.93%-3.14%-0.54%5.52%4.77%2.72%3.33%3.08%箭牌家居箭牌家居8.35%9.05%6.89%7.89%0.28%7.24%6.29%5.79%5.55%-7.96%34.74%24.77%19.44%12.52%0.07%3.54%2.42%2.78%8.49%-1.82%YOY()5.46%0.70%-2.16%1.00%-2.05%-2.52%-3.09%-1.79%-2.34%-8.24%10.99%-9.97%-5.33%-6.92%-0.82%

214、-3.06%-3.14%-1.41%-4.03%-1.89%瑞爾特瑞爾特16.36%8.93%7.46%10.76%10.06%12.72%10.92%6.69%10.01%11.19%11.07%6.81%7.86%10.90%2.04%3.72%3.12%2.08%10.51%2.78%YOY()0.16%-7.44%-1.47%3.31%1.06%3.24%-3.65%-3.21%-0.76%1.13%0.58%-4.26%1.05%3.05%-0.01%1.13%-0.74%-0.91%-0.40%0.74%好太太好太太22.18%22.91%21.06%15.82%17.48%23.

215、05%22.17%15.53%19.38%19.02%19.07%16.02%15.98%10.69%2.33%4.85%4.08%3.95%14.25%2.39%YOY()2.29%0.73%-1.85%-5.24%-1.11%7.65%4.35%3.16%3.57%1.54%-1.19%-3.05%-0.04%-5.29%-0.05%1.85%0.58%1.64%3.57%0.06%歸母凈利率歸母凈利率毛銷差毛銷差ROE毛利率毛利率201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1

216、箭牌家居箭牌家居19.04%19.84%19.70%22.96%30.74%17.86%22.03%18.86%21.04%30.86%9.68%10.75%9.97%13.23%21.13%9.97%13.78%11.88%13.10%22.78%YOY()-1.57%0.80%-0.15%3.27%-2.42%-1.72%-0.03%-3.06%-1.92%0.11%0.58%1.07%-0.78%3.26%-0.30%-0.87%1.66%-0.52%-0.13%1.66%瑞爾特瑞爾特12.64%15.63%14.74%13.00%16.87%12.96%17.73%25.88%18.6

217、9%19.45%8.97%10.06%9.15%9.02%10.21%9.70%8.08%7.71%8.79%8.61%YOY()1.80%2.99%-0.89%-1.74%0.89%-0.94%6.77%14.05%5.70%2.57%0.30%1.09%-0.91%-0.13%1.16%-2.74%-0.26%1.07%-0.24%-1.60%好太太好太太25.44%24.07%21.70%26.86%27.61%24.83%26.58%32.10%28.16%31.48%8.62%8.58%8.00%8.72%9.72%7.20%7.34%9.17%8.31%10.70%YOY()4.1

218、1%-1.37%-2.37%5.16%2.41%0.39%0.69%0.72%1.30%3.87%1.63%-0.04%-0.58%0.72%-0.55%-1.43%-0.30%0.25%-0.41%0.98%箭牌家居箭牌家居6.66%7.37%6.53%8.70%14.94%6.46%8.97%7.54%8.63%16.10%3.02%3.38%3.44%4.53%6.18%3.51%4.81%4.33%4.47%6.68%YOY()1.11%0.71%-0.84%2.17%-1.42%-0.31%1.43%-0.17%-0.06%1.16%-0.53%0.36%0.07%1.09%1.12

219、%-0.56%0.23%-0.35%-0.07%0.50%瑞爾特瑞爾特5.05%5.89%5.32%4.79%6.03%6.36%4.74%2.04%4.61%4.35%3.92%4.17%3.83%4.23%4.19%3.34%3.34%5.66%4.17%4.26%YOY()0.51%0.84%-0.57%-0.53%1.08%-2.27%0.28%0.39%-0.18%-1.67%-0.21%0.25%-0.34%0.40%0.07%-0.47%-0.54%0.68%-0.06%0.07%好太太好太太4.43%4.67%4.59%5.55%6.83%4.34%4.56%5.44%5.17

220、%7.24%4.20%3.91%3.41%3.17%2.89%2.87%2.79%3.73%3.15%3.46%YOY()0.71%0.25%-0.08%0.96%-0.84%-0.55%-0.30%-0.13%-0.39%0.41%0.92%-0.29%-0.50%-0.25%0.29%-0.89%0.01%0.39%-0.02%0.57%箭牌家居箭牌家居0.62%0.81%0.19%0.21%0.03%-0.07%-0.10%0.34%0.06%0.91%8.74%8.29%9.54%9.52%9.59%7.96%8.35%6.64%7.88%7.16%YOY()0.03%0.19%-0.

221、63%0.03%-0.21%-0.30%-0.46%0.28%-0.15%0.89%-2.18%-0.46%1.25%-0.02%-1.91%-0.55%-1.23%-2.81%-1.64%-2.43%瑞爾特瑞爾特-1.26%1.56%0.52%-2.32%0.84%-4.17%-0.43%0.31%-0.97%-0.82%4.93%4.01%5.06%6.29%5.82%7.43%10.09%17.86%10.88%11.66%YOY()0.55%2.82%-1.04%-2.84%0.51%1.22%4.83%-0.63%1.34%-1.67%0.95%-0.92%1.06%1.23%-0.

222、77%0.58%2.21%13.61%4.59%5.84%好太太好太太-0.13%-0.16%-0.56%-0.53%-0.92%-0.12%-0.61%-0.45%-0.48%-1.16%16.94%15.64%14.26%18.67%18.81%17.75%19.85%23.38%20.33%21.95%YOY()-0.04%-0.03%-0.41%0.03%0.05%0.50%-0.25%-0.12%0.05%-0.24%2.51%-1.30%-1.39%4.41%2.91%1.33%1.23%0.58%1.66%3.14%期間費用率期間費用率管理&研發費用率管理&研發費用率管理費用率管

223、理費用率研發費用率研發費用率財務費用率財務費用率銷售費用率銷售費用率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.24 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 5 出口：訂單延續改善，出口：訂單延續改善，品牌品牌&供應鏈加速出海供應鏈加速出海 美國強韌性，歐洲疲軟，新興經濟體增長勢頭良好。美國強韌性，歐洲疲軟，新興經濟體增長勢頭良好。美國消費/就業/制造等指標持續超預期、經濟強韌性顯現；歐洲通脹壓力仍存、且降息節奏受制于美國；新興地區部分制造業出口型經濟體增長勢頭良好。展望未來，1）24 年 3 月美國 PMI 重返 50%+，盡管降息預期延后、整體經濟韌性仍有望延續；2）歐洲 PMI 仍

224、處低位區間且地緣沖突持續，全年預計表現平穩；3）新興地區仍處擴張通道，增長趨勢有望延續。此外，需要注意，全球大選年，通脹、利率、地緣政治等因素均存在一定不確定性。圖表 39：不同地區 PMI 圖表 40：不同地區 GDP 增速 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 多品類增速靚麗，其中地產后周期及必選品類復蘇勢頭率先顯現。多品類增速靚麗，其中地產后周期及必選品類復蘇勢頭率先顯現。24Q1 我國累計出口金額同比+1.5%，其中家具及其零件累計同比+19.6%。海外終端需求穩定，高增主要系春節錯位&低基數。沙發、床墊、PVC 地板、辦公椅等地產后周期，以及寵物食品

225、、保溫杯、廚房塑料用品等必選消費品表現優異。此外，辦公椅 24-25 年迎較明確換新周期（上輪于 20-21 年爆發，換新周期通常為 3-5 年），因此后續有望展現增長彈性。圖表 41：分品類出口概況 資料來源：海關總署，國盛證券研究所 美國歐元區英國日本韓國印度越南俄羅斯 新加坡 菲律賓2024-0350.3046.1050.3048.2049.8059.1049.9055.7055.7050.902024-0247.8046.5047.5047.2050.7056.9050.4054.7056.8051.002024-0149.1046.6047.3048.0051.2056.5050.3

226、052.4054.7050.902023-1247.1044.4046.2047.9049.9054.9048.9054.6055.7051.502023-1146.7044.2047.2048.3050.0056.0047.3053.80-52.702023-1046.7043.1044.8048.7049.8055.5049.6053.8050.2052.402023-0949.0043.4044.3048.5049.9057.5049.7054.5050.1050.602023-0847.6043.5043.0049.6048.9058.6050.5052.7049.9049.70202

227、3-0746.4042.7045.3049.6049.4057.7048.7052.1049.8051.902023-0646.0043.4046.5049.8047.8057.8046.2052.6049.7050.902023-0546.9044.8047.1050.6048.4058.7045.3053.5049.5052.202023-0447.1045.8047.8049.5048.1057.2046.7052.6055.3051.402023-0346.3047.3047.9049.2047.6056.4047.7053.2052.6052.502023-0247.7048.504

228、9.3047.7048.5055.3051.2053.6049.6052.702023-0147.4048.8047.0048.9048.5055.4047.4052.6051.2053.50日本美國歐盟印度越南韓國菲律賓德國新加坡2020-06-9.70-7.53-13.40-23.130.39-2.69-16.91-10.70-11.802020-09-5.00-1.47-3.70-5.842.69-0.85-11.55-2.50-4.202020-12-0.40-1.08-3.201.784.48-0.72-8.23-1.20-0.502021-03-0.601.57-0.203.294

229、.652.36-3.77-1.704.402021-068.0011.9514.7022.636.576.4712.0411.2017.902021-092.104.744.909.87-6.024.207.042.409.502021-121.305.425.405.535.224.257.861.607.902022-030.303.575.804.455.053.108.054.304.202022-061.501.874.2012.817.832.967.521.604.602022-091.501.712.605.4613.713.077.701.204.202022-120.500

230、.651.404.265.921.357.110.202.402023-032.601.721.406.183.281.016.450.300.502023-062.302.380.308.224.050.874.35-0.400.502023-091.602.93-0.108.085.471.255.99-0.701.002023-121.203.130.108.366.722.205.57-0.402.202024-032.975.663.16-0.902.7023M1-223M323M423M523M623M723M823M923M1023M1123M1224M1-224M323Q1出口

231、金額31.8323.9922.4820.6921.6221.4322.2125.6724.9826.4927.6744.6521.1665.81YOY-7.0%44.6%18.7%-0.1%3.6%6.5%13.5%23.8%7.3%16.5%21.9%40.3%-11.8%17.9%出口金額7.715.625.595.436.045.706.436.987.117.467.7912.686.7119.39YOY-2.8%34.6%-1.1%5.3%19.7%16.6%33.6%27.4%23.4%27.7%42.1%64.5%19.4%45.5%出口金額6.634.634.403.994.2

232、64.064.154.754.234.735.078.024.7512.77YOY-5.2%28.5%16.5%15.2%27.3%21.3%27.9%20.7%7.7%14.6%22.8%21.0%2.5%13.4%出口金額2.651.661.831.291.330.941.000.850.860.710.922.721.664.38YOY0.2%12.4%-5.3%-16.3%-8.7%-20.2%-5.9%-12.9%5.0%-4.1%12.3%2.5%-0.2%1.5%出口金額2.130.990.901.131.021.291.050.941.121.130.871.901.363.2

233、6YOY21.4%-5.3%-27.0%-6.5%-39.8%-14.9%-3.4%-31.2%22.1%-13.4%-18.7%-10.7%37.4%4.5%出口金額3.612.662.182.012.202.151.931.861.741.751.872.510.843.36YOY28.5%74.1%74.6%15.7%11.6%19.5%12.3%6.1%17.3%-12.2%-9.9%-30.3%-68.2%-46.4%出口金額1.411.441.521.220.920.810.670.520.560.701.071.140.811.95YOY5.9%159.5%135.7%36.3%

234、15.7%-4.6%-43.4%-54.0%-46.5%-47.3%-11.0%-19.1%-43.6%-31.5%出口金額14.2810.189.819.679.478.929.719.909.6510.8710.5717.717.8925.59YOY-35.0%-11.4%-8.0%-12.8%-18.1%-16.6%-1.9%-1.0%-4.7%4.9%13.1%24.0%-22.5%4.6%出口金額48.2234.4136.1235.7335.2934.7837.6639.3942.0245.0046.4674.4034.42108.82YOY-24.7%3.9%4.7%-3.3%-1

235、.8%-4.0%23.8%29.2%31.6%32.7%35.7%54.3%0.0%31.7%出口金額4.483.573.042.692.492.432.032.222.302.742.824.071.705.78YOY-2.6%99.0%93.8%-5.8%-20.8%-30.8%-35.5%-33.3%-38.7%-19.3%-27.1%-9.0%-52.3%-28.2%出口金額78.4548.5143.6837.8835.8836.6234.7536.4538.0147.2558.30105.4247.94153.37YOY-16.4%5.4%-10.1%-17.4%-17.6%-6.9

236、%-8.9%-10.4%-16.1%-3.7%14.2%34.4%-1.2%20.8%出口金額32.9724.4619.1614.1514.2714.0913.5914.8012.1613.8015.3133.1117.3050.40YOY-26.9%7.2%-0.9%-32.0%-40.8%-39.7%-36.9%-28.9%-32.7%-20.8%-9.9%0.4%-29.3%-12.2%出口金額41.5426.4830.0829.8832.8530.3434.6328.9524.0822.5220.8352.9925.9178.90YOY-19.4%2.0%17.6%-0.2%-4.9%

237、-22.3%-6.3%-16.2%-17.6%-20.0%3.8%27.6%-2.2%16.0%出口金額85.5162.5160.3155.0655.1354.9556.7655.1751.2657.8060.70110.0051.84161.85YOY-9.6%26.7%4.6%-11.8%-15.4%-14.0%-0.6%-9.1%-15.1%-6.4%7.8%28.6%-17.1%9.3%出口金額38.1326.4629.4826.4026.6427.6929.0530.7828.0930.3728.8655.6622.3177.97YOY-3.7%42.6%32.1%3.8%-1.2%

238、3.7%32.6%31.5%8.3%23.2%23.2%46.0%-15.7%20.7%出口金額4.182.762.862.412.442.532.312.442.512.663.214.803.057.85YOY15.5%32.0%54.2%13.3%13.0%-11.1%-5.0%6.6%14.7%22.0%20.5%14.7%10.4%13.0%出口金額10.547.267.427.227.528.017.408.027.257.508.1314.127.7821.89YOY-19.6%-2.8%10.7%-11.4%0.7%0.5%1.9%37.1%18.7%29.4%21.2%33.

239、9%7.1%23.0%出口金額46.3732.6932.2932.2732.0029.9231.3733.5729.8232.8835.8160.7127.8688.57YOY-31.5%-11.8%-7.2%-15.1%-23.4%-26.6%-4.0%8.2%5.1%9.0%10.3%30.9%-14.8%12.0%出口金額1.090.840.830.880.800.740.640.550.500.510.551.210.541.75YOY-27.9%-0.8%-3.9%-8.0%-23.9%-12.5%-9.5%-21.8%-16.6%-21.0%16.8%10.9%-35.2%-9.2

240、%出口金額53.3634.4036.8934.7433.3433.4734.7234.3031.4734.0637.4572.4325.3097.73YOY-22.77%32.8%11.1%-4.9%-11.9%-10.7%-6.4%-0.8%-1.8%-4.6%10.4%35.7%-26.5%11.4%床墊（夢百合、顧家家居）彈簧床墊乳膠床墊單位：億元單位：億元辦公椅（恒林股份、永藝股份）可調高度的轉動坐具沙發（敏華控股、夢百合、匠心家居）皮革或再生皮革面的帶軟墊的木框架坐具其他帶軟墊的木框架坐具皮革或再生皮革面的帶軟墊的金屬框架坐具其他帶軟墊的金屬框架坐具充氣床墊（浙江自然）充氣床墊特種紙

241、（仙鶴股份、華旺科技、五洲特紙、冠豪高新）格拉辛紙裝飾原紙熱轉印紙/熱敏紙人造草坪（共創草坪）人造草坪自行車（久祺股份）自行車電動自行車花灑龍頭（松霖科技、建霖家居）花灑龍頭塑料制品（家聯科技）廚房用塑料制品保溫杯（哈爾斯、嘉益股份）保溫杯寵物（依依股份、中寵股份、佩蒂股份、乖寶股份、源飛寵物、天元寵物）寵物尿墊寵物食品PVC地板（天振股份，海象新材，愛麗家居）PVC地板 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.25 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 美國地產底部企穩，后周期需求彈性值得期待。美國地產底部企穩，后周期需求彈性值得期待。自美聯儲釋放降息信號后，美國借款利率 23 年

242、底高位下滑，盡管仍處高位，剛需&較強經濟韌性依然驅動美國地產底部回暖：1）房價指數提升，2）新房銷售底部復蘇（24 年 3 月同比/環比分別+8.1%/+17.5%），3）二手房銷售持續企穩回暖（24 年 2 月絕對值為近 9 個月內第二高）。后續伴隨降息落地，地產需求有望持續釋放（歷史經驗降息后一個季度，地產逐步復蘇），后周期行業需求回升可期。圖表 42：美國房價走勢 圖表 43：美國貸款利率 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 44：美國新房銷售（萬套）圖表 45：美國二手房銷售（萬套）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證

243、券研究所 庫存優化，家居庫銷比位于歷史中值。庫存優化，家居庫銷比位于歷史中值。2023 年海外品牌商/零售商訂單保守，持續優化庫存。截止 2024 年 2 月，家居零售商/批發商歷史庫銷比分位分別為 54.7%/64.1%，位于歷史中樞，相較于其他耐用消費品類，庫存相對低位。若地產復蘇，家居類目有望率先開啟主動補庫周期。-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502000-012001-042002-072003-102005-012006-042007-072008-102010-012011-042012-072013-102015-01

244、2016-042017-072018-102020-012021-042022-072023-10美國:房地美房價指數:季調同比0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-092024-02美國:聯邦基金利率美國:30年期抵押貸款固定利率美國:10年期國債收益率-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060801001201402000-012002-0

245、12004-012006-012008-012010-012012-012014-012016-012018-012020-012022-012024-01美國:新建住房銷量:未季調同比-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060702001-012003-012005-012007-012009-012011-012013-012015-012017-012019-012021-012023-01美國成屋銷量同比 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.26 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 46：美國零售商&批發商庫

246、銷比 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 47：美國家居零售商銷售額&庫存同比 圖表 48：美國家居批發銷售額&庫存同比 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 零售商總體機動車家具、家用裝飾、電子和家電建筑材料、園林設備和物料食品飲料服裝服飾日用品商場歷史分位35.85%42.48%54.69%75.86%20.00%49.48%15.12%2020年至今均值1.441.991.681.810.792.431.512024-011.291.821.631.940.752.281.28批發商：耐用品汽車及配件家居及擺設木材及建材專業及商業設備電腦及外圍設備

247、金屬及礦產電氣及電子五金及水暖機械設備耐用品雜項歷史分位72.22%44.55%64.13%87.34%81.58%83.87%51.88%31.94%69.33%93.33%43.93%2020年至今均值1.591.561.641.401.090.791.971.192.022.521.462024-011.801.771.921.721.260.922.181.222.252.971.55批發商：非耐用品紙及紙制品藥品服裝及面料食品農產品化學品石油及石油產品酒類非耐用品雜項歷史分位41.94%48.65%12.07%54.93%66.67%23.53%45.95%11.11%96.72%8

248、5.71%2020年至今均值0.931.041.141.940.661.241.130.371.261.392024-010.921.011.032.340.711.071.120.281.641.78零售商批發商（耐用品）批發商（非耐用品）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2001-012002-022003-032004-042005-052006-062007-072008-082009-092010-102011-112012-122014-012015-022016-032017-042018-052019

249、-062020-072021-082022-092023-10零售商：家具零售額同比零售商：家具庫存同比（右軸）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2001-012002-052003-092005-012006-052007-092009-012010-052011-092013-012014-052015-092017-012018-052019-092021-012022-052023-09批發商：家居銷售額同比批發商：家居庫存同比（右軸）2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.27

250、請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 49：海外不同類型零售商&品牌商收入&庫存 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 補庫邏輯持續演繹，補庫邏輯持續演繹，24Q1 低基數下業績靚麗，低基數下業績靚麗，Q2 訂單環比訂單環比/同比均維系穩健增長，海同比均維系穩健增長，海外降息預期推遲致復蘇預期推遲，但零售商、品牌商庫存低位，海外需求韌性突出，年外降息預期推遲致復蘇預期推遲，但零售商、品牌商庫存低位，海外需求韌性突出，年內需求或保持平穩。目前降息預期降溫，但美國成屋銷售和新開工均有回暖跡象，后續內需求或保持平穩。目前降息預期降溫，但美國成屋銷售和新開工均有回暖跡象，后續復蘇預期有

251、望持續演繹，持續關注有能力上修業績預期或成長邏輯加強的公司。復蘇預期有望持續演繹，持續關注有能力上修業績預期或成長邏輯加強的公司。收入延續改善，結構性成長公司增長靚麗。收入延續改善，結構性成長公司增長靚麗。23Q4、24Q1 出口公司合計實現營收 176.84、163.62 億元（同比+22.3%、+24.5%）。受益于海外庫存優化、客戶訂單修復，出口公司 23 年收入逐季改善，其中匠心家居、麒盛科技匠心家居、麒盛科技等 23Q4 邊際承壓主要系下游季節性提前補庫，同比仍表現靚麗；24Q1 海外庫存恢復常態、需求平穩，低基數下收入增速靚麗，其中部分公司受益于細分行業景氣、下游客戶份額提升、自身

252、加速渠道&品牌擴展，增長趨勢優于同行；其中，恒林股份（恒林股份（+39.0%）、致歐科技（致歐科技（+45.3%）、西大門（西大門（+38.3%）高增主要系跨境電商兌現高增；樂歌股份（樂歌股份（+40.8%）海外倉貢獻主要增量；匠心家居匠心家居（+30.7%）新品加速迭代、新老客戶同步擴張；嘉益股份嘉益股份（+78.2%）、哈爾斯哈爾斯（+58.6%）保溫杯需求景氣、Stanley 爆品&新品持續增長。其中，永藝股份永藝股份新產品、新客戶等 Q1 導入早期，Q2 有望加速導入，增長有望提速。2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023

253、Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4勞氏(LOWES)24.13%0.98%2.73%5.06%-3.12%-0.34%2.45%5.18%-5.55%-9.17%-12.81%-17.12%WAYFAIR49.25%-10.39%-18.71%-11.41%-13.93%-14.87%-9.01%-4.64%-7.32%-3.44%3.66%0.42%RH-19.31%0.39%24.57%22.18%78.26%39.42%19.24%11.12%11.21%0.28%-13.65%-14.43%FLOOR&D COR41.01%86.03%27.99%26.35%31.46%26.7

254、1%25.24%14.63%9.07%4.23%0.91%0.00%家得寶(HOME DEPOT)32.70%8.05%9.79%10.72%3.75%6.50%5.57%0.31%-4.24%-2.00%-2.99%-2.92%沃爾瑪(WALMART)2.74%2.40%4.32%0.52%2.36%8.37%8.74%7.31%7.58%5.74%5.23%5.69%開市客(COSTCO)16.65%14.58%21.50%17.41%16.56%15.94%16.16%15.02%8.09%6.48%2.00%9.50%塔吉特(TARGET)11.28%24.72%21.25%21.12

255、%23.36%9.51%13.34%9.38%4.02%3.49%3.38%1.29%百思買(BEST BUY)-6.34%3.92%21.39%11.46%35.91%19.57%0.48%-3.38%-8.51%-12.83%-11.11%-9.96%亞馬遜(AMAZON)43.82%27.18%15.26%9.44%7.30%7.21%14.70%8.58%9.37%10.85%12.57%13.91%歐迪辦公（OFFICE DEPOT）-13.17%5.93%-14.18%-10.75%-7.95%-11.02%-0.32%3.13%-3.21%-6.15%-7.50%-14.25%S

256、TEELCASE15.32%-11.48%19.61%11.23%33.03%19.03%12.06%6.51%1.48%-0.93%-5.93%-3.34%YETI41.94%44.84%23.10%17.93%18.61%17.44%19.55%1.10%3.12%-4.16%0.00%16.03%TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL26.92%75.75%19.96%28.63%18.75%3.58%-5.52%-12.67%-2.53%4.85%-0.48%-1.42%LA-Z-BOY-30.99%2.66%-1.19%41.44%83.84%25.43%21.56%3

257、1.78%15.11%6.15%0.20%-18.01%SLEEP NUMBER20.25%69.97%20.57%-13.37%-7.24%13.37%-15.59%-19.31%-0.11%-16.44%-12.56%8.19%HNI3.33%22.28%15.72%7.25%18.18%21.79%2.05%9.30%-16.29%-9.36%18.84%3.16%CRICUT126.02%42.13%24.44%4.54%-24.41%-45.06%-31.95%-27.61%-25.94%-3.26%-1.18%-17.65%PETCO27.02%18.69%14.52%13.15%

258、4.31%3.21%4.02%4.23%5.42%3.38%-0.46%6.08%Freshpet33.25%35.81%27.79%37.09%41.49%34.42%40.65%43.12%26.75%25.56%32.57%29.90%2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4勞氏(LOWES)28.70%25.24%6.19%8.72%10.10%11.59%18.77%5.27%-3.54%-9.87%-11.54%-8.84%WAYFAIR5.37%39.85%22.82%32.3

259、1%34.20%63.57%54.61%30.43%3.75%-21.43%-23.30%-16.67%RH-6.78%1.45%15.82%24.06%20.17%32.47%27.46%34.92%37.61%32.99%29.31%9.20%FLOOR&D COR3.18%15.07%39.21%54.15%89.18%96.57%58.49%28.19%2.75%-12.77%-16.28%-14.41%家得寶(HOME DEPOT)27.95%40.09%27.40%32.72%31.91%37.97%24.96%12.77%0.29%-10.82%-11.33%-15.71%沃爾瑪

260、(WALMART)12.53%16.24%10.88%25.72%32.01%25.48%12.56%0.12%-7.02%-5.34%-1.17%-2.98%開市客(COSTCO)7.84%17.00%26.93%16.12%13.70%18.90%26.10%25.97%9.62%-2.45%-7.37%-7.01%塔吉特(TARGET)-5.25%-2.70%11.55%18.47%22.77%26.85%17.67%30.50%43.12%36.07%14.43%-2.90%百思買(BEST BUY)-23.14%-20.58%-1.45%8.47%43.28%55.15%14.67%

261、6.29%9.39%-5.83%-14.72%-13.83%亞馬遜(AMAZON)26.47%23.06%30.33%37.17%46.70%58.19%18.47%5.41%-2.34%-4.10%-3.39%-3.16%歐迪辦公（OFFICE DEPOT）0.00%-4.78%-15.90%-7.63%-6.78%1.15%5.83%-3.61%-8.43%-13.64%-12.13%-7.61%STEELCASE-7.69%6.88%21.70%68.04%63.16%70.39%32.52%-1.84%-17.47%-31.74%-31.40%-27.81%YETI-9.11%59.7

262、2%97.56%127.58%124.57%121.06%65.22%16.48%-15.99%-34.30%-22.32%-9.21%TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL 16.61%25.27%39.66%48.64%82.34%90.96%55.62%19.64%-2.51%-14.50%-18.95%-12.95%LA-Z-BOY-8.75%-8.03%6.82%24.50%46.59%51.48%48.79%34.07%25.48%19.93%-3.82%-8.88%SLEEP NUMBER0.35%8.45%3.45%29.84%25.40%36.96%31.84%

263、7.94%13.15%0.11%2.35%1.23%HNI-9.59%19.67%30.84%31.77%33.98%21.09%17.82%-0.82%-7.48%3.44%3.02%9.16%CRICUT-82.59%60.06%13.43%-7.78%-22.57%-39.19%-39.22%-37.24%-30.49%PETCO-19.04%25.23%18.61%15.13%12.27%-3.41%-2.05%-6.64%0.99%5.06%Freshpet37.50%31.58%61.11%89.47%104.55%144.00%120.69%61.11%46.67%6.56%-7

264、.81%9.03%庫存增速家居零售商綜合零售商品牌商寵物零售&品牌商辦公用品品牌商家居零售商綜合零售商品牌商寵物零售&品牌商收入增速辦公用品品牌商 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.28 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 50：出口板塊收入&利潤拆分（百萬元）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 盈利能力整體穩定。盈利能力整體穩定。23Q4 出口鏈公司毛利率為 31.9%（同比-0.5pct），歸母凈利率為 7.6%（同比-2.1pct）；24Q1 毛利率為 31.9%（同比-0.3pct），歸母凈利率為 11.5%（同比-1.8pct），整體表現基本穩定。原材料、匯率

265、利好，產能利用率提升，但是代工企業普遍下調價格讓利客戶（23 年共創草坪共創草坪均價同比-12%）；跨境電商企業受紅海事件影響，海運費有所上升，且消費降級背景下價格下滑（23 年致歐科技致歐科技均價同比-7.3%）。目前部分原材料價格底部上升、匯率穩定、海運費高位回落，預計 24Q2 毛利率保持穩定，凈利率受制于上年同期匯兌收益高基數影響、預計普遍承壓。201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1出口出口35540.5246716.2463538.2160473.7913143.

266、2815740.2916861.5117684.2163429.2916362.7836084.6547459.0564801.5561746.3014380.9816970.8618048.1518789.6064534.6817518.74YOY-31.4%36.0%-4.8%-14.4%0.5%12.4%22.3%4.9%24.5%-31.5%36.5%-4.7%-6.3%0.2%11.9%19.4%4.5%21.8%夢百合夢百合3831.596530.138139.258017.241698.781901.852114.832260.457975.921818.973891.63674

267、1.198319.498121.921801.942017.112229.112385.228100.681952.43YOY25.6%70.4%24.6%-1.5%-20.7%-2.0%6.5%16.0%-0.5%7.1%26.6%73.2%23.4%-2.4%-15.9%-2.2%6.5%16.1%-0.3%8.4%盈趣科技盈趣科技3854.445310.257060.974345.22871.39972.311116.56899.953860.20764.193870.915328.847122.184506.24989.181099.951230.17991.253951.50872.

268、44YOY38.7%37.8%33.0%-38.5%-32.5%-2.3%3.2%-7.8%-11.2%-12.3%38.6%37.7%33.7%-36.7%-23.4%-0.7%4.1%-12.8%-12.3%-11.8%浙江自然浙江自然544.95581.34842.44945.80240.26290.00141.15151.90823.32273.49550.62591.76856.95959.75253.93302.88156.19168.47839.88296.92YOY7.2%6.7%44.9%12.3%-27.2%-5.1%-15.8%6.7%-13.0%13.8%7.0%7.5

269、%44.8%12.0%-23.1%-5.9%-13.8%7.8%-12.5%16.9%匠心家居匠心家居1174.701318.131924.961462.65427.96517.53509.23466.731921.46559.161176.301318.461931.531465.27431.29524.08514.81468.701923.43561.86YOY7.1%12.2%46.0%-24.0%-7.4%61.7%55.8%32.0%31.4%30.7%7.1%12.1%46.5%-24.1%-6.7%60.3%50.9%31.6%31.3%30.3%永藝股份永藝股份2450.483

270、433.724658.624055.28696.71839.68963.851038.123538.36856.692459.283449.674674.074068.58711.00854.67982.691055.633555.87875.82YOY1.6%40.1%35.7%-13.0%-30.9%-30.2%-1.4%19.7%-12.7%23.0%1.4%40.3%35.5%-13.0%-29.5%-29.9%-1.5%19.9%-12.6%23.2%恒林股份恒林股份2903.744743.095777.806514.931693.581949.872132.212418.94819

271、4.592353.692952.314804.796204.266908.832057.692343.502489.452725.778501.422639.81YOY25.3%63.3%21.8%12.8%20.8%25.7%27.1%28.3%25.8%39.0%26.7%62.7%29.1%11.4%46.8%13.3%19.6%19.6%23.1%28.3%樂歌股份樂歌股份978.071940.662871.283208.31796.41881.641007.301216.363901.711121.581022.631994.742948.673264.67853.36929.011

272、062.451282.613967.951200.92YOY3.3%98.4%48.0%11.7%4.3%12.3%31.9%35.7%21.6%40.8%6.4%95.1%47.8%10.7%11.8%10.1%29.5%34.7%21.5%40.7%久祺股份久祺股份1795.432285.563709.752376.05487.05549.87516.48452.602006.00529.371909.382378.373748.172482.77584.64682.56651.79565.582118.98630.53YOY-1.4%27.3%62.3%-36.0%-37.1%-6.2%

273、1.2%-10.4%-15.6%8.7%1.6%24.6%57.6%-33.8%-24.5%5.7%5.9%-7.6%-14.7%7.8%共創草坪共創草坪1553.541850.292301.662470.75558.78711.45646.05545.162461.43688.071602.441882.442389.752549.57636.73757.84700.41606.232522.51744.13YOY11.2%19.1%24.4%7.3%-18.0%12.2%1.4%5.2%-0.4%23.1%12.5%17.5%26.9%6.7%-6.5%10.2%0.9%1.5%-1.1%

274、16.9%嘉益股份嘉益股份404.96355.59585.631259.54242.46410.83575.17546.941775.40432.08407.14357.53604.311265.03260.30416.21579.58552.791781.25439.59YOY7.6%-12.2%64.7%115.1%32.5%49.8%51.8%29.2%41.0%78.2%7.4%-12.2%69.0%109.3%42.2%48.5%49.3%28.9%40.8%68.9%家聯科技家聯科技1020.481026.271234.351976.02328.45439.31461.98491.

275、421721.16499.351023.371031.781243.121982.60338.71447.04469.82496.291726.03510.89YOY7.6%0.6%20.3%60.1%-20.8%-24.3%-21.1%24.2%-12.9%52.0%7.7%0.8%20.5%59.5%-18.4%-24.4%-21.0%23.4%-12.9%50.8%哈爾斯哈爾斯1793.741491.942388.912427.90362.45574.28769.30701.092407.12574.781827.201521.282426.322474.74395.83606.8479

276、1.50730.242436.27606.25YOY0.0%-16.8%60.1%1.6%-35.9%-21.4%27.7%32.4%-0.9%58.6%-0.1%-16.7%59.5%2.0%-30.0%-19.8%26.0%26.7%-1.6%53.2%玉馬遮陽玉馬遮陽383.59385.01520.38546.62130.42173.87173.01185.73663.02158.65389.02396.87532.48561.54148.46185.64187.62199.70676.99173.80YOY19.2%0.4%35.2%5.0%14.4%22.4%18.8%28.2%21

277、.3%21.6%17.6%2.0%34.2%5.5%30.2%21.5%20.2%24.9%20.6%17.1%海象新材海象新材858.771223.941797.571894.50433.36489.69333.34342.581598.97301.38863.321226.071800.471897.78440.54491.14338.15345.641602.03305.53YOY9.6%42.5%46.9%5.4%7.2%-11.3%-30.0%-25.8%-15.6%-30.5%9.8%42.0%46.8%5.4%9.0%-11.6%-29.4%-25.7%-15.6%-30.6%麒

278、盛科技麒盛科技2529.262259.912966.832663.34696.84826.18862.91716.863102.80755.962533.712265.232972.512669.18706.24838.71877.84725.453111.38766.24YOY5.8%-10.6%31.3%-10.2%-6.4%19.9%27.2%30.0%16.5%8.5%5.6%-10.6%31.2%-10.2%-5.1%20.7%28.5%30.2%16.6%8.5%致歐科技致歐科技2325.573970.995967.385455.391267.471376.441492.13193

279、8.156074.191841.612355.724024.896021.875499.821322.381430.411532.541991.946127.981886.16YOY45.8%70.8%50.3%-8.6%-11.2%-0.4%13.9%45.0%11.3%45.3%45.4%70.9%49.6%-8.7%-7.3%0.0%17.0%44.2%11.4%42.6%西大門西大門408.82354.25465.48499.10119.16157.05175.21185.91637.33164.84422.35374.66485.37520.94142.81180.04199.092

280、04.49655.91185.57YOY4.6%-13.3%31.4%7.2%5.0%38.1%26.1%39.8%27.7%38.3%4.7%-11.3%29.5%7.3%25.8%34.6%28.3%32.1%25.9%29.9%松霖科技松霖科技1738.632034.822977.003180.53604.79790.16798.68789.792983.42681.041769.172081.753074.203269.29695.50862.83877.09867.193060.82752.05YOY-1.1%17.0%46.3%6.8%-23.7%-14.0%3.1%13.7%-6

281、.2%12.6%0.0%17.7%47.7%6.3%-12.3%-14.8%-1.3%10.7%-6.4%8.1%建霖家居建霖家居3393.033835.084712.124186.25807.971073.511208.471243.824333.761152.823433.333873.264778.554244.38874.941141.801274.821305.614395.561232.15YOY-3.9%13.0%22.9%-11.2%-29.0%-11.6%22.1%47.3%3.5%42.7%-3.8%12.8%23.4%-11.2%-23.1%-10.0%22.2%44.6

282、%3.6%40.8%浩洋股份浩洋股份845.06399.69618.141222.70330.21378.82301.72294.141304.89315.18848.28402.92627.281234.76344.62390.68308.55297.241307.99317.95YOY23.1%-52.7%54.7%97.8%42.5%11.7%-15.8%0.2%6.7%-4.6%21.8%-52.5%55.7%96.8%48.7%11.9%-14.8%-2.7%5.9%-7.7%濤濤車業濤濤車業751.661385.572017.691765.67348.78435.94561.937

283、97.592144.25519.90776.511412.552040.011798.62390.89467.92594.47823.582170.24567.71YOY21.9%84.3%45.6%-12.5%-5.0%7.2%30.4%42.1%21.4%49.1%24.0%81.9%44.4%-11.8%6.5%9.7%38.0%38.6%20.7%45.2%出口出口4342.175269.414893.565469.491396.251851.691642.901048.235939.071387.284150.924739.184285.865097.62852.911880.421

284、633.60861.965228.881291.68YOY-21.4%-7.1%11.8%24.2%3.9%2.4%9.2%8.6%-0.6%-14.2%-9.6%18.9%-13.2%17.8%7.6%32.5%2.6%51.4%夢百合夢百合373.68378.59-275.5341.3616.7780.8415.31-6.33106.6019.82361.29349.92-258.3936.335.2388.9631.29-24.45101.0418.98YOY100.8%1.3%-172.8%115.0%-45.6%53.0%1.5%89.0%157.7%18.2%60.4%-3.1%-

285、173.8%114.1%-81.2%186.8%2.8%53.8%178.1%262.7%盈趣科技盈趣科技973.171024.961093.06693.3680.17123.11130.27116.96450.5155.61890.79904.35958.63606.2342.41128.20113.56102.50386.6743.34YOY19.6%5.3%6.6%-36.6%-48.4%-34.5%-32.5%-25.5%-35.0%-30.6%22.5%1.5%6.0%-36.8%-68.0%-28.6%-37.1%-9.7%-36.2%2.2%浙江自然浙江自然131.38159.5

286、4219.51212.9767.2153.3113.14-2.98130.6838.67122.89137.08198.67204.6253.3061.2518.374.00136.9355.66YOY60.9%21.4%37.6%-3.0%-20.9%-40.3%-47.3%-121.7%-38.6%-42.5%30.7%11.5%44.9%3.0%-31.0%-29.4%-54.0%465.8%-33.1%4.4%匠心家居匠心家居112.94205.60298.44334.1176.59124.60121.3784.83407.39121.00169.98197.77297.63288.9

287、461.89111.96107.6974.65356.19113.22YOY-17.9%82.0%45.2%12.0%8.7%22.1%43.9%9.9%21.9%58.0%25.6%16.4%50.5%-2.9%0.3%14.0%58.2%22.4%23.3%82.9%永藝股份永藝股份181.33232.50181.33335.2151.7390.2369.2286.69297.8842.69144.77197.96139.11242.4635.2087.9971.7614.00208.9642.81YOY74.5%28.2%-22.0%84.9%9.5%1.2%-53.4%72.4%-11

288、.1%-17.5%92.4%36.7%-29.7%74.3%-19.4%13.8%0.4%-72.0%-13.8%21.6%恒林股份恒林股份243.39363.28337.66352.8678.26184.14103.56-102.87263.10102.69187.85323.16286.82316.1476.90165.3596.13-103.44234.94103.01YOY42.4%49.3%-7.1%4.5%7.5%33.4%23.4%-277.2%-25.4%31.2%40.2%72.0%-11.2%10.2%12.6%11.4%-8.7%-1667.7%-25.7%34.0%樂歌

289、股份樂歌股份62.98217.09184.68218.73397.0546.1773.57116.90633.6979.8548.96184.74109.36103.9520.6461.6570.4699.21251.9541.29YOY9.4%244.7%-14.9%18.4%2104.0%-58.9%163.9%93.5%189.7%-79.9%17.2%277.3%-40.8%-4.9%805.2%415.3%23.9%160.6%142.4%100.1%久祺股份久祺股份101.99156.75205.21167.8613.8639.1242.6210.87106.4721.4997.8

290、6140.62189.38153.6110.7135.8837.526.8690.9719.01YOY97.6%53.7%30.9%-18.2%-67.4%-33.7%-18.5%-22.7%-36.6%55.1%87.8%43.7%34.7%-18.9%-74.8%-33.9%-23.3%-13.0%-40.8%77.6%共創草坪共創草坪284.60410.92380.29447.0393.68132.73125.8378.98431.22121.18268.66384.10355.16428.8583.43134.20124.0976.93418.65117.12YOY24.7%44.4%

291、-7.5%17.5%9.8%7.5%-13.4%-15.1%-3.5%29.4%29.5%43.0%-7.5%20.7%2.2%11.6%-11.9%-10.7%-2.4%40.4%嘉益股份嘉益股份71.9064.8482.17271.9153.15109.90150.77158.21472.03107.4861.1252.1576.38270.9551.20113.96158.83142.45466.44108.82YOY-11.5%-9.8%26.7%230.9%61.0%105.9%85.8%51.6%73.6%102.2%-19.1%-14.7%46.5%254.7%79.5%133.

292、4%74.5%38.9%72.2%112.5%家聯科技家聯科技74.84114.3471.20179.2218.3826.7017.94-17.6745.3643.3766.8589.1951.74155.339.1113.6216.96-21.8117.889.86YOY609.7%52.8%-37.7%151.7%-18.9%-53.6%-72.1%-150.9%-74.7%136.0%208.3%33.4%-42.0%200.2%-47.4%-74.7%-70.7%-183.2%-88.5%8.3%哈爾斯哈爾斯55.12-28.31135.50205.913.5741.99107.429

293、6.80249.7831.4856.27-49.36124.88197.350.1250.31108.2457.06215.7331.40YOY-44.5%-151.4%578.7%52.0%-88.4%-56.4%102.6%276.2%21.3%781.6%-47.0%-187.7%353.0%58.0%-99.6%-41.9%79.0%152.4%9.3%25927.0%玉馬遮陽玉馬遮陽109.12108.05140.32156.6527.0245.8446.8145.37165.0436.62110.9496.88135.20151.4326.7643.4645.6344.07159.

294、9336.65YOY35.0%-1.0%29.9%11.6%0.3%4.4%-2.3%19.8%5.4%35.5%29.7%-12.7%39.5%12.0%-0.3%2.4%-3.6%26.5%5.6%37.0%海象新材海象新材138.32188.2996.97212.8467.24111.40-39.88-93.1145.6510.98129.32169.3896.21214.8766.68110.01-39.82-94.6242.2511.02YOY54.4%36.1%-48.5%119.5%290.7%94.8%-167.8%-217.0%-78.6%-83.7%44.3%31.0%-4

295、3.2%123.3%289.3%94.1%-163.8%-220.3%-80.3%-83.5%麒盛科技麒盛科技394.88273.43357.1225.6323.9197.8664.8619.05205.6744.93393.71233.25317.20139.739.6592.31115.9236.58254.4657.50YOY34.9%-30.8%30.6%-92.8%-57.4%136.1%-6.2%113.5%702.6%88.0%34.8%-40.8%36.0%-55.9%-84.1%44.3%36.6%152.5%82.1%495.8%致歐科技致歐科技107.99380.2523

296、9.82250.1187.3898.53100.53126.44412.88100.54163.90458.69207.49251.3484.49128.17100.25118.84431.7595.98YOY165.7%252.1%-36.9%4.3%69.9%67.2%64.8%60.6%65.1%15.1%106.8%179.9%-54.8%21.1%82.3%116.5%-71.8%13.6%西大門西大門88.3977.8489.5082.0416.6231.6527.5815.2991.1423.3089.0174.8576.9575.8617.7327.9526.8215.4287

297、.9222.94YOY16.0%-11.9%15.0%-8.3%-14.9%49.4%11.6%-7.9%11.1%40.2%15.5%-15.9%2.8%-1.4%-8.1%56.0%17.9%-3.2%15.9%29.4%松霖科技松霖科技234.18270.49301.30261.1443.7176.74183.5948.46352.49111.33231.83223.61252.85287.6639.7993.71156.7367.51357.74102.22YOY-0.9%15.5%11.4%-13.3%-39.9%-7.7%152.0%49.6%35.0%154.7%-2.9%-3.

298、5%13.1%13.8%-38.2%-13.1%82.7%127.8%24.4%156.9%建霖家居建霖家居333.97364.97376.33458.0645.43113.65131.12134.63424.83122.81301.83302.94323.76425.3826.66115.43124.82121.76388.67113.23YOY-0.2%9.3%3.1%21.7%-52.7%-13.2%0.7%33.7%-7.3%170.3%-10.5%0.4%6.9%31.4%-68.7%-17.6%-10.3%99.6%-8.6%324.7%浩洋股份浩洋股份196.2588.13135

299、.96356.1799.66123.5987.2755.66366.17100.56191.0378.08122.39341.8496.35121.6482.8448.95349.7997.26YOY73.0%-55.1%54.3%162.0%62.6%8.1%-31.0%2.8%2.8%0.9%77.3%-59.1%56.8%179.3%69.6%9.4%-33.1%-2.3%2.3%0.9%濤濤車業濤濤車業71.75217.86242.72206.3134.8799.5870.0076.03280.4850.8762.06189.82224.46204.7734.6594.4065.497

300、5.48270.0350.37YOY83.7%203.6%11.4%-15.0%21.7%45.2%79.0%8.7%36.0%45.9%73.6%205.9%18.2%-8.8%-31.9%45.4%營業收入規模及增速營業收入規模及增速收入收入&合同負債規模及增速合同負債規模及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速扣非歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速歸母凈利潤及增速 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.29 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 51：人民幣匯率 圖表 52：CCFI 海運指數 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 53：主要原材

301、料價格變動趨勢（元/噸）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 5.866.26.46.66.877.27.417-0317-0918-0318-0919-0319-0920-0320-0921-0321-0922-0322-0923-0323-0924-03人民幣匯率050010001500200025003000350040001100013000150001700019000210002300017-0317-0918-0318-0919-0319-0920-0320-0921-0321-0922-0322-0923-0323-0924-03原材料（左軸）海運費（右軸）TPUPPTDIMDI

302、鋼不銹鋼2022Q443512.9011429.0319877.4215056.454218.745244.352023Q140688.5211093.4419090.9815996.724492.345189.342023Q243412.909970.1618049.1915566.134167.055210.482023Q342096.889092.5818155.4716799.224124.315139.842023Q441545.169412.1017212.1015681.454189.814874.192024Q138023.398933.8716226.6115689.5241

303、24.714975.48 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.30 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表 54：出口公司毛利率&歸母凈利率比較 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1出口出口33.93%34.29%29.06%30.31%32.12%32.28%33.31%31.91%32.53%31.86%YOY-0.36%-5.23%1.25%3.80%2.85%2.15%-0.45%2.22%-0.26%夢百合夢百合39.72%33.92%28.47%31.04%36.00%36.09%37

304、.33%42.99%38.35%38.52%YOY7.64%-5.81%-5.45%2.57%6.77%7.36%6.35%7.60%7.31%2.52%盈趣科技盈趣科技39.83%33.75%27.97%30.43%29.88%31.12%28.74%33.46%30.70%27.58%YOY-3.19%-6.09%-5.78%2.47%2.24%4.25%-4.46%-1.24%0.26%-2.30%浙江自然浙江自然39.83%40.68%38.76%36.61%37.91%33.81%30.23%30.81%33.84%38.37%YOY4.77%0.86%-1.93%-2.15%1.4

305、4%-1.45%-6.82%-8.51%-2.77%0.46%匠心家居匠心家居32.46%35.45%28.78%32.56%30.02%32.67%33.09%39.94%33.95%33.32%YOY3.48%2.99%-6.67%3.78%2.69%-0.63%0.40%1.32%1.40%3.30%永藝股份永藝股份19.98%19.18%14.64%19.34%22.45%23.68%23.00%22.41%22.88%22.11%YOY4.34%-0.80%-4.54%4.70%5.80%4.92%1.94%1.08%3.54%-0.33%恒林股份恒林股份24.97%29.49%22

306、.50%21.78%24.90%22.69%24.67%23.11%23.78%24.80%YOY5.38%4.51%-6.99%-0.72%3.60%4.32%-2.72%3.15%2.01%-0.09%樂歌股份樂歌股份46.47%46.74%39.72%34.41%37.16%34.46%37.81%36.55%36.53%31.29%YOY2.27%0.27%-7.03%-5.31%-2.57%-2.09%-2.65%13.71%2.12%-5.87%久祺股份久祺股份17.35%20.18%12.63%13.54%12.76%14.61%16.98%15.74%15.03%12.84%Y

307、OY4.03%2.83%-7.55%0.91%0.09%0.87%2.90%1.64%1.48%0.08%共創草坪共創草坪37.18%36.92%27.90%28.74%32.31%30.46%32.90%30.73%31.58%30.48%YOY3.44%-0.26%-9.02%0.84%8.22%2.61%2.68%-3.39%2.84%-1.83%嘉益股份嘉益股份34.99%35.64%28.73%34.26%37.00%39.88%40.01%43.75%40.72%38.70%YOY0.02%0.65%-6.91%5.53%10.20%7.95%4.92%5.49%6.46%1.70

308、%家聯科技家聯科技24.13%26.13%18.02%22.24%19.17%17.00%20.21%20.35%19.23%19.33%YOY6.12%1.99%-8.11%4.22%1.00%-6.35%-2.73%-3.48%-3.01%0.15%哈爾斯哈爾斯29.82%26.66%26.13%29.24%26.83%30.73%35.19%29.45%31.20%27.42%YOY-1.79%-3.16%-0.53%3.11%2.28%1.94%6.82%-6.39%1.96%0.59%玉馬遮陽玉馬遮陽46.29%46.58%43.57%41.66%39.20%40.16%42.97%

309、39.61%40.55%39.41%YOY2.39%0.29%-3.01%-1.92%-2.34%-0.49%0.59%-2.41%-1.11%0.21%海象新材海象新材33.05%29.75%16.75%22.05%30.12%33.07%24.94%4.43%24.44%23.28%YOY4.19%-3.31%-13.00%5.30%14.80%12.62%2.93%-25.43%2.40%-6.84%麒盛科技麒盛科技39.30%38.01%35.47%31.61%35.74%31.49%38.01%41.96%36.68%32.86%YOY4.28%-1.29%-2.54%-3.86%0

310、.86%2.39%8.46%9.09%5.07%-2.88%致歐科技致歐科技55.80%37.92%32.64%31.65%36.78%36.02%37.70%35.17%36.32%36.00%YOY-0.68%-17.88%-5.28%-0.99%5.41%4.42%7.03%2.21%4.67%-0.78%西大門西大門39.36%40.39%37.00%34.31%36.51%39.42%39.52%38.82%38.73%39.95%YOY1.96%1.03%-3.39%-2.70%2.72%5.45%8.33%0.52%4.42%3.44%松霖科技松霖科技34.78%34.55%29

311、.54%30.79%33.53%34.91%36.39%34.89%35.02%35.54%YOY2.90%-0.23%-5.01%1.24%4.49%5.16%5.01%1.42%4.24%2.00%建霖家居建霖家居29.46%26.93%22.76%24.28%23.16%24.66%27.27%27.67%25.97%27.05%YOY0.94%-2.53%-4.17%1.52%0.44%0.62%1.75%2.41%1.69%3.88%浩洋股份浩洋股份48.19%46.06%45.29%50.18%51.65%49.75%51.60%46.64%49.96%52.66%YOY5.64%

312、-2.12%-0.78%4.90%3.23%-3.01%0.27%-0.53%-0.22%1.01%濤濤車業濤濤車業42.51%35.13%32.97%35.75%41.35%41.23%41.01%31.57%37.60%37.47%YOY-3.52%-7.38%-2.16%2.78%8.35%9.02%4.15%-7.68%1.85%-3.88%出口出口13.51%14.19%11.29%12.78%13.31%14.99%12.24%7.56%12.31%11.54%YOY-0.68%-2.90%1.49%2.76%-0.54%-2.16%-2.10%-0.47%-1.78%夢百合夢百合

313、9.75%5.80%-3.39%0.52%0.99%4.25%0.72%-0.28%1.34%1.09%YOY3.65%-3.96%-9.18%3.90%-0.45%1.53%-0.04%2.66%0.82%0.10%盈趣科技盈趣科技25.25%19.30%15.48%15.96%9.20%12.66%11.67%13.00%11.67%7.28%YOY-4.03%-5.95%-3.82%0.48%-2.83%-6.22%-6.16%-3.09%-4.29%-1.92%浙江自然浙江自然24.11%27.44%26.06%22.52%27.97%18.38%9.31%-1.96%15.87%14

314、.14%YOY8.05%3.34%-1.39%-3.54%2.23%-10.85%-5.56%-11.60%-6.65%-13.83%匠心家居匠心家居9.61%15.60%15.50%22.84%17.90%24.08%23.83%18.18%21.20%21.64%YOY-2.93%5.98%-0.09%7.34%2.65%-7.82%-1.98%-3.67%-1.64%3.74%永藝股份永藝股份7.40%6.77%3.89%8.27%7.42%10.75%7.18%8.35%8.42%4.98%YOY3.09%-0.63%-2.88%4.37%2.74%3.33%-8.01%2.55%0.

315、15%-2.44%恒林股份恒林股份8.38%7.66%5.84%5.42%4.62%9.44%4.86%-4.25%3.21%4.36%YOY1.01%-0.72%-1.81%-0.43%-0.57%0.54%-0.15%-7.33%-2.21%-0.26%樂歌股份樂歌股份6.44%11.19%6.43%6.82%49.86%5.24%7.30%9.61%16.24%7.12%YOY0.36%4.75%-4.75%0.39%47.50%-9.09%3.65%2.87%9.42%-42.74%久祺股份久祺股份5.68%6.86%5.53%7.06%2.85%7.11%8.25%2.40%5.31

316、%4.06%YOY2.84%1.18%-1.33%1.53%-2.64%-2.95%-2.00%-0.38%-1.76%1.21%共創草坪共創草坪18.32%22.21%16.52%18.09%16.76%18.66%19.48%14.49%17.52%17.61%YOY1.99%3.89%-5.69%1.57%4.24%-0.80%-3.33%-3.47%-0.57%0.85%嘉益股份嘉益股份17.75%18.23%14.03%21.59%21.92%26.75%26.21%28.93%26.59%24.88%YOY-3.82%0.48%-4.20%7.56%3.89%7.30%4.80%4

317、.26%5.00%2.95%家聯科技家聯科技7.33%11.14%5.77%9.07%5.59%6.08%3.88%-3.59%2.64%8.69%YOY6.22%3.81%-5.37%3.30%0.13%-3.84%-7.11%-12.36%-6.43%3.09%哈爾斯哈爾斯3.07%-1.90%5.67%8.48%0.99%7.31%13.96%13.81%10.38%5.48%YOY-2.47%-4.97%7.57%2.81%-4.46%-5.88%5.16%8.95%1.90%4.49%玉馬遮陽玉馬遮陽28.45%28.06%26.97%28.66%20.72%26.37%27.06%

318、24.43%24.89%23.08%YOY3.32%-0.38%-1.10%1.69%-2.90%-4.55%-5.86%-1.71%-3.77%2.37%海象新材海象新材16.11%15.38%5.39%11.23%15.52%22.75%-11.96%-27.18%2.85%3.64%YOY4.68%-0.72%-9.99%5.84%11.26%12.39%-24.32%-44.42%-8.38%-11.87%麒盛科技麒盛科技15.61%12.10%12.04%0.96%3.43%11.84%7.52%2.66%6.63%5.94%YOY3.37%-3.51%-0.06%-11.07%-4

319、.12%5.83%-2.67%28.25%5.67%2.51%致歐科技致歐科技4.64%9.58%4.02%4.58%6.89%7.16%6.74%6.52%6.80%5.46%YOY2.10%4.93%-5.56%0.57%3.29%2.89%2.08%0.63%2.21%-1.43%西大門西大門21.62%21.97%19.23%16.44%13.94%20.15%15.74%8.22%14.30%14.14%YOY2.13%0.35%-2.74%-2.79%-3.26%1.53%-2.06%-4.26%-2.14%0.19%松霖科技松霖科技13.47%13.29%10.12%8.21%7

320、.23%9.71%22.99%6.14%11.81%16.35%YOY0.04%-0.18%-3.17%-1.91%-1.94%0.66%13.58%1.47%3.60%9.12%建霖家居建霖家居9.84%9.52%7.99%10.94%5.62%10.59%10.85%10.82%9.80%10.65%YOY0.36%-0.33%-1.53%2.96%-2.82%-0.20%-2.31%-1.10%-1.14%5.03%浩洋股份浩洋股份23.22%22.05%21.99%29.13%30.18%32.62%28.92%18.92%28.06%31.90%YOY6.70%-1.17%-0.05

321、%7.13%3.74%-1.08%-6.37%0.47%-1.07%1.72%濤濤車業濤濤車業9.55%15.72%12.03%11.68%10.00%22.84%12.46%9.53%13.08%9.79%YOY3.21%6.18%-3.69%-0.35%2.19%5.97%3.38%-2.93%1.40%-0.21%歸母凈利率歸母凈利率毛利率毛利率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.31 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 6 消費：復蘇延續分化，關注結構性成長消費：復蘇延續分化，關注結構性成長 消費整體平穩，細分賽道分化。消費整體平穩，細分賽道分化。根據國家統計局數據，

322、23Q4/24Q1 我國社會消費品零售總額累計同比+8.3%/+4.7%，其中限額以上批發零售業日用品類零售額、辦公用品零售額、家具零售額等同比-0.2%/+0.7%、-4.3%/-8.0%、-4.3%/+3.0%。下游消費內生動力仍不足、總體延續弱復蘇，總量擴張邏輯趨弱下建議關注結構性成長機會。當前消費結構呈現以下特征：1）消費理性化：消費者購物理念趨于理性，性價比成為重要考量因素，國貨品牌（瑞爾瑞爾特、寵食龍頭、鏡片龍頭明月特、寵食龍頭、鏡片龍頭明月&康耐特、公牛集團康耐特、公牛集團等）依托高性價比優勢加速突圍。2）渠道結構變化：抖音、小紅書等新興平臺紅利凸顯，流量分配算法快速迭代下新銳國

323、貨品牌（自由點、瑞爾特、寵食龍頭、舒客自由點、瑞爾特、寵食龍頭、舒客等）有望實現彎道超車。3）悅己消費興起：伴隨消費觀念升級與 Z 世代崛起，悅己消費逐步興起，消費者對智能化、大健康、情感消費等方面的需求逐步增長，細分賽道（自由點、寵食龍頭、公牛軌自由點、寵食龍頭、公牛軌道插道插&無主燈、九木雜物社無主燈、九木雜物社等）實現快速發展。圖表 55：社會消費品累計零售額及同比（億元，%）圖表 56：日用品類累計零售額及同比（億元，%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 圖表 57：文化辦公用品累計零售額及同比（億元，%）圖表 58：家具累計零售額及同比（億元，%

324、）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所-30-20-100102030400500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500005000002018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02社會消費品零售總額:累計值社會消費品零售總額:累計

325、同比-10-505101520253035400100020003000400050006000700080002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02零售額:日用品類:累計值（億元，左軸）零售額:日用品類:累計同比-20-100102030405005001000150020002500

326、300035004000450050002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02零售額:文化辦公用品類:累計值（億元，左軸）零售額:文化辦公用品類:累計同比-40-20020406080050010001500200025002018-022018-052018-082018-112019

327、-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02零售額:家具類:累計值（億元，左軸）零售額:家具類:累計同比 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.32 請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明請仔細閱讀本報告末頁聲明 關注業績驅動，重視超預期延續性。關注業績驅動，重視超預期延續性。通過對消費板塊 2023 年及 24Q1 業績梳理歸因，建議關注三大布局方向：1）競爭力突出、

328、持續強勢：公牛集團公牛集團產品&渠道&供應鏈&管理能力卓越，通過產品矩陣拓展&渠道業態升級&供應鏈能力深化，傳統業務穩步增長，結構升級、新業務多點開花，戰略升級穩步推進；乖寶寵物乖寶寵物主糧單品塑造能力&精準營銷能力領先，份額穩步提升，品牌建設突出，高端化邏輯持續兌現，驅動單價&盈利持續上行。2）產品&渠道邏輯變革加強：百亞股份百亞股份三大核心邏輯加強兌現，盈利質量拐點有望來臨，24Q1 業績超預期的底層邏輯為份額加速提升、產品結構升級驅動毛利率持續改善、品牌勢能向上同時消費者復購提升，從成長周期角度，公司份額已支撐品牌勢能釋放，進入份額提升且利潤增長逐步好于收入的階段，業績有望持續兌現。3）

329、業績反轉：晨光股份晨光股份傳統核心業務延續恢復，產品端調結構、擴品類，渠道端聚焦單店質量提升，電商渠道持續發力，九木模式初獲成功；倍加潔倍加潔牙刷、濕巾代工業務重回穩健增長、盈利修復，牙線簽&牙線單品塑造成功，牙膏增量貢獻有望顯現，善恩康客戶拓展順利、2024Q2 開始并表、薇美姿旺季來臨，內生外延共驅成長；此外，齊心集團齊心集團B2B 業務持續擴張、盈利盈利表現穩健，云視頻業務持續收縮，豪悅護理豪悅護理新產品持續擴張、份額提升對沖新生兒數量下滑壓力、自有品牌持續放量。細分賽道來看，文具行業溫和復蘇、動銷穩健，紙巾行業產品策略分化、23Q4&24Q1 成本受益于 2023 年漿價回落，衛生巾行

330、業持續提價、新品迭出，鏡片行業競爭漸顯、功能性占比提升趨勢延續，寵物海外代工持續修復、盈利超預期，自主品牌延續高增；公司層面，龍頭 持續凸顯，通過產品&渠道結構優化、培育新增長點，實現超越行業的增長。圖表 59：輕工消費行業主要公司收入及利潤（百萬元，%）資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所 201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1201920202021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1公牛集團公牛集團10040.4410051.1312384.9214081.373334.144258.294014.404087.9315694.

331、763802.7910170.4710384.8712822.9214513.034199.974923.194591.534616.4216223.255048.10YOY10.8%0.1%23.2%13.7%8.3%13.3%10.4%13.3%11.5%14.1%10.7%2.1%23.5%13.2%36.4%18.9%11.4%14.3%11.8%20.2%晨光股份晨光股份11141.1013137.7517607.4019996.324881.605079.165899.017491.5423351.305485.3811347.8613251.8517753.9920078.064

332、969.895149.196003.647597.5823457.345609.12YOY30.5%17.9%34.0%13.6%15.4%20.8%11.4%19.5%16.8%12.4%30.7%16.8%34.0%13.1%17.5%19.4%10.6%19.7%16.8%12.9%齊心集團齊心集團5981.278009.338236.348629.141910.732542.343306.673339.1211098.852190.756081.418065.268325.658699.911979.502665.543503.313394.1211153.862418.16YOY41

333、.0%33.9%2.8%4.8%-11.0%20.3%33.4%76.8%28.6%14.7%39.7%32.6%3.2%4.5%-7.8%22.1%29.1%73.2%28.2%22.2%中順潔柔中順潔柔6634.917823.539149.878569.692060.542624.542138.182977.699800.951845.206777.397960.869314.238666.282111.522680.392199.883021.879845.131889.49YOY16.8%17.9%17.0%-6.3%9.4%5.7%22.4%21.3%14.4%-10.5%18.1%17.5%17.0%-7.0%12.1%5.7%20.0%18.4%13.6%-10.5%百亞股份百亞股份1149.411250.751463.061612.14522.66427.22526.256