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1、20242024MKTGM0724A/S-3722444-1/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-1/1622024(AI)Philipp Hildebrand23-43 4 5-7567Jean BoivinVivek Paul8-14 8-91011 12131415612Wei LiChristopher KaminkerMKTGM0724A/S-3722444-2/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-2/16360%100%89(Transition Scenario)3.5圖表結論：要讓通脹一路回落到目標水平（綠色虛線），那么美聯儲設定的利率將會重創經濟。2024

2、6Crafts(2021)Crafts(2021)0102030Steam(UK)1760s-1840sElectricity1880s-1940sInformation andcommunication tech1970s-2010sAI&low-carbontransition2024-2030sCapital spendingTotal factor productivity?資本支出總要素生產力20242030197020101880194017601840MKTGM0724A/S-3722444-3/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-3/1646122024712MKTG

3、M0724A/S-3722444-4/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-4/16512020圖表結論：要讓通脹一路回落到目標水平（綠色虛線），那么美聯儲設定的利率將會重創經濟。20247100100AlphabetMeta0123051015202530MKTGM0724A/S-3722444-5/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-5/16626128-9圖表結論：要讓通脹一路回落到目標水平（綠色虛線），那么美聯儲設定的利率將會重創經濟。2005-2024LSEG Datastream20247MSCIMSCI01232005201020152020MicrosoftA

4、ppleUKGermanyMKTGM0724A/S-3722444-6/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-6/1673圖表結論：要讓通脹一路回落到目標水平（綠色虛線），那么美聯儲設定的利率將會重創經濟。Helen Jewell202474.44.54.64.74.84.955.15.24.44.54.64.74.84.955.15.2201520202025203020352040MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-7/168500BGIFSemianalytics(Bernstein)202452022/2022-20300%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2022

5、2024202620282030EstimatesIEA estimate12MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-8/1691%0.1%1.5%Haver Analytics202472070-801970-20242070Simona Paravani-Mellinghoff生產力大幅提升生產力大幅提升30%1%2%3%4%1%2%3%4%197019801990200020102020Information tech investment(%of GDP)Productivity growth(right)MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-9/1610Macrohistory

6、Jorda2017Haver Analytics202461940-2024Tom Donilon-302070120170MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-10/1611Haver20243200020192019214080%64%2000-2019David Giordano-202468-0.50.51.52.5MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-11/1612LSEG Datastream202431990Datastream15-64/1970-2024Carrie King35455565758550100150200250300197019801990200020

7、102020Healthcare sector vs broad market indexDependency ratio(right)MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-12/16132024610MSCI20Yuichi Chiguchi0%2%4%6%8%10%12%BenchmarkCurrency hedgedUnhedgedMKTGM0724A/S-3738014-13/16143%202476-1220247MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-14/16156122024710n 中性MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-15/16“”2024 BlackRock,Inc.BLACKROCKBlackRock,Inc.,MKTGM0724A/S-3722444-16/16MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-16/16