貝恩：2018年全球鉆石行業報告（英文版）（43頁）.pdf

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1、The Global Diamond Industry 2018 A resilient industry shines through Copyright 2018 Bain the final outcome for the year will be determined by sales performance during the holiday season. Rough diamond mining companies delivered unprecedented production growth of nearly 20% in volume in 2017. The pro

2、duction increase came mostly from mines with lower-quality assortments. Mining company revenues grew by 2% overall, indicating a positive trajectory for the second year in a row. In 2017, some major producers reported decreases in their EBIT margins, mostly due to currency appreciation in production

3、 countries. However, mining companies profitability bounced back in the first half of 2018. Midstream profitability remained positive with margins of about 1% to 3%. Assuming the demand for diamond jewelry continues to rise through the end of 2018, overall profitability of the cutting and polishing

4、segment is expected to improve. Midstream inventories increased in 201718, particularly in lower-quality and small-size assortments, as midstream players prepared to ride another demand surge for those categories in 2018. India continued to grow its leadership position in the cutting and polishing s

5、egment due to lower labor costs, a favorable regulatory environment and relatively better access to financing. Even though financing availability remains an issue in the midstream segment, transparent and financially healthy companies report little impact on their ability to secure funding. In line

6、with positive luxury market trends, global diamond jewelry sales grew 2% in US dollar terms in 2017, fueled by strong macroeconomic fundamentals in the US, resurging demand from Chinese millennials, and increasing sales in the self-purchasing category in China. The Global Diamond Report 2018 Page ii

7、i The demand for diamond jewelry is expected to accelerate in 2018. However, if the trade war between the US and China continues, it may have a negative effect on the growth prospects for global demand in the short to medium term. Three key industry trends are shaping the future of the diamond indus

8、try. One of the most important opportunities is the increasing influence of digital technologies. Emerging and maturing digital technologies are affecting all parts of the value chain, enabling diamond producers, midstream players and retailers to increase efficiencies within their operations. Marke

9、ting efforts that use digital technology can also deliver superior customer experiences. The second trend is the growing presence of lab-grown diamonds. Lab-grown diamonds are clearly here to stay. De Beers Groups launch of a lab-grown fashion jewelry retailer called Lightbox Jewelery, and the US Fe

10、deral Trade Commission ruling on diamond terminology were major news in 2018. Lightbox does not provide grading reports for its products, as it states that grading reports exist as a record of a diamonds rarity and, therefore, its value with products that can be mass-produced to a particular recipe,

11、 Lightbox notes that grading reports could confuse consumers about the value of their lab-grown stones. The effects on natural diamond demand and price will depend on consumers perceptions and preferences. If the natural diamond industry can differentiate its stones from lab-grown diamonds (perhaps

12、positioning lab-grown diamonds as fashion jewelry rather than luxury items), the effect on natural diamond demand by 2030 will be limited up to 5% to 10% in value terms. Given the pace of declining production costs and wholesale and retail prices, we expect lab-grown stones to become accessible to a

13、 wider consumer audience, potentially increasing demand for diamonds in general. In the short to medium term, growth of lab-grown diamonds will be limited by manufacturing capacity, access to technology and intellectual property, and availability of funding. The third key trend is the shifting prefe

14、rences of younger generations of consumers. Younger generations of consumers are causing industry players to rethink their sales and marketing strategies. The self-purchase product category continues to grow as millennial and Generation Zs female spending power increases. Younger generations are als

15、o more inclined to consider the opinions of social influencers, customer reviews and “likes” when making purchasing decisions. Social media shopping is expected to increase significantly as the spending power of Gen Z rises. Many retailers are already strategizing how the shifts in preferences will

16、change their approaches to marketing and operations. The long-term outlook for the diamond market remains positive. Rough diamond supply is projected to be negative 1% to 1% annually in volume terms. We expect demand for natural rough diamonds to stay flat or grow up to 2% annually through 2030 in r

17、eal terms (2% to 4% in nominal), backed by strong fundamentals in the US and the continued growth of the middle class in China and India. Our outlook incorporates possible demand substitution from lab-grown diamonds, which is estimated to be 5% to 10%. It also reflects fundamental long-term supply a

18、nd demand factors rather than short-term fluctuations. Every segment of the value chain improved in 2017, with industry revenue growing around 2%. In 2018, we expect revenues to continue to trend upward, and project accelerated growth in the mining and jewelry segments. Revenue for rough diamonds in

19、creased, continuing a climb that started in 2016. Revenue growth for rough diamonds is largely attributed to increased production by smaller players. The top five mining company aggregates faced unfavorable exchange rates in 2017, which contributed to lower profit margins of about 5%. Cutting and po

20、lishing revenues increased slightly in 2017 due to healthy demand, marking a turnaround from prior years. Average profitability was stable at 1% to 3%, with the most efficient players delivering margins of around 10%. We expect cutting and polishing profitability to improve in 2018, supported by ris

21、ing prices for polished diamonds and increased demand for diamond jewelry. Midstream inventory has increased in anticipation of higher demand, particularly in lower-quality and smaller-sized assortments. Global retail sales of diamond jewelry increased in 2017 due to a strong economy in the US, the

22、worlds largest diamond jewelry market. A resurgence of luxury spending among Chinese millennials also contributed to the increase. De Beers Group launched Lightbox Jewelry, a lab-grown fashion jewelery retailer with a new linear pricing model and no grading reports for its products, in September 201

23、8. Along the value chain, companies are evaluating how to strategically respond. Performance across the value chain was strong during the first half of 2018, with accelerated growth expected among mining companies and jewelry retailers. The final outcome for the year hinges on holiday sales in Decem

24、ber. 1. Recent developments in the diamond industry The Global Diamond Report 2018 Page 3 Source: Bain Kimberley Process; Euromonitor; Bain analysis of large chains is based on data for Chow Sang Sang, Chow Tai Fook, Gitanjali Jewels, Lukfook, Signet Jewelers, Tiffany company data; expert interviews

25、; Bain ALROSA revenues represent diamond sales only; Dominion Diamond Mines 2017 results based on H1 2017 as the company was delisted and no long publishes the data; Petra Diamonds data converted from year ending in June to year ending in December, based on company reports for full year and half yea

26、r; only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; other is estimated assuming no price change for the players of this segment; E is estimate; to estimate average price per carat sold, total value of diamonds sold is divided by total volume of diamonds sold Sources: Company data; Kimberley

27、Process; analyst reports; Bain Kimberley Process; company data; Bain Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain volume reached 151 million carats in 2017, breaking an eight-year trend of flat output. However, the increase was largely attributed to the processing of lower-quality supplies and tailing

28、s, diminishing the effect on revenues. Canada, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Botswana and Russia accounted for 90% of the output increase in 2017. Canada led the way, with the largest production increases coming from commercial mining efforts in Gahcho Ku and Renard, both of which

29、 started production in 2016 and early 2017. We believe that 2017 was the pinnacle production level for the natural diamond supply. From here on, output is expected to remain stable at best. Miners plans and actual production volumes in the first half of 2018 suggest production may even decline in th

30、e near future. The most significant decreases are expected from Mirny in Russia and Voorspoed in South Africa, resulting from their closure; Jubilee in Australia from lower-grade mining; and Argyle, also in Australia, because of depleted reserves in its block cave. Meaningful increases are expected

31、from Orapa and Jwaneng in Botswana. Currency adjustments in production countries lowered the EBIT margins (earnings before interest and taxes) for De Beers Group and ALROSA in 2017. ALROSA returned to positive in the first half of 2018 and maintains the highest margin in the segment, attributable to

32、 rises in rough diamond prices, currency devaluation and strong cost containment. Petra reported negative EBIT margin in 2017 but rebounded in 2018. Merger and acquisition activity was focused on the mining segment, with key industry players investing in mining resources and operations. De Beers Gro

33、up purchased Chidliak, a diamond resource in Canada; ALROSA increased its shares in Catoca from 33% to 41%. 2. Rough diamond production The Global Diamond Report 2018 Page 9 21% 5% 16% 21% 23% 12% 78% 6% Other Angola South Africa DRC Australia Botswana Canada Russia *Estimated based on company produ

34、ction plans Notes: Only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; 2018 data is preliminary estimate and is to be updated with 2018 Kimberley data; due to rounding, some totals may not correspond with the sum of the separate figures; DRC is Democratic Republic of the Congo Sources: Company

35、data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain 2018 data is preliminary estimate and is to be updated with 2018 Kimberley data; due to rounding, some totals may not correspond with the sum of the separate figures; DRC is Democratic Republic of the Congo Sources: Company data; Kimberley Process; ex

36、pert interviews; Bain only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; 2018 data is a preliminary estimate and is to be updated with 2018 Kimberley data Sources: Company data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain Petra Diamonds data converted from year ending in June to year ending in

37、December, based on company reports for full year and half year; 2017 impairment charges are taken into consideration for Petra Diamond EBIT/EBITDA calculations Sources: Company data; Bain International Trade Centre; Antwerp World Diamond Centre; China Customs Statistics; Israeli Central Bureau of St

38、atistics; Bain Bain expert interviews; Bain Bain Bain Euromonitor; Bain Bain social media, for example, is enabling and influencing new direct-to-consumer and online sales models. Two important events occurred in 2018 regarding the lab-grown diamond market. In July, the US Federal Trade Commission a

39、mended its Jewelry Guides, clarifying “a diamond is a diamond” regardless of its origin. In September, De Beers Group launched a lab-grown fashion jewelery retailer called Lightbox Jewelery that introduced a new pricing paradigm. Lightbox uses a linear pricing model, reflecting the linear cost of pr

40、oduction, whereby all lab-grown stones cost $800 per carat, regardless of size. Lightbox also does not provide grading reports for its products. As the lab-grown industry continues to evolve and lab-grown diamond prices decline, players along the entire natural diamond value chain will need to deter

41、mine how to respond and how to position their products with consumers. While much attention has been paid to millennial buyers, their successors in Generation Z have been gaining buying power, forcing the industry to rethink marketing and sales strategies. Self-purchase sales and social media shoppi

42、ng are expected to increase, attracting younger generations of diamond buyers with distinct preferences. 5. Key industry trends The Global Diamond Report 2018 Page 21 Source: Bain expert interviews; Bain Bain production cost excludes polishing and certification; electricity cost of $15$30 is equival

43、ent to 200400 kWh Sources: Expert interviews; Bain expert interviews; online retailers websites; Bain Bain expert interviews; Bain expert interviews; Bain additional sources also could include potential projects that are not in development now but may become viable should rough prices increase Sourc

44、es: Company data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain Ekati and Diavik production decrease 180 2018E2022F2026F2030F2018E2022F2026F2030F 150 120 90 60 30 0 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Note: PDI is personal disposable income Sources: Euromonitor; Bain Bain hange in 2030 demand outlook versus previou

45、s years forecast is driven mostly by revised macroeconomic forecast and potential substitution from lab-grown diamonds Sources: Kimberley Process; Euromonitor; Economist Intelligence Unit; company reports; expert interviews; Bain Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain to estimate average price p

46、er carat sold, total value of diamonds sold is divided by total volume of diamonds sold. Beneficiation the process by which producing governments seek to extract more value from their natural resources by developing downstream industries in their own countries; typically it involves commitments by p

47、roducer companies to set up local cutting centers and hire local workers. CAGR compound annual growth rate, a year-on-year growth rate over a specified period of time. Carat one of the four main diamond characteristics, the others being color, cut and clarity; 1 carat=250 mg. CVD chemical vapor depo

48、sition, a high-temperature but normal-pressure process to grow lab-grown diamonds. Gem-quality diamonds diamonds used for jewelry manufacturing. HPHT high-pressure, high-temperature; a process using large presses to grow lab-grown diamonds. Kimberley Process certification commitment aimed at prevent

49、ion of conflict diamond sales. Lab-grown diamonds diamonds produced in laboratories using HPHT or CVD methods; also known as synthetic diamonds. Market price index indicator that shows change in market price for like-for-like diamond categories weighted according to global rough and polished product mix. Operating profit profit from main operations before interest and tax. Personal disposable income amount of money that households have available for spending and saving after paying income taxes. Reserves resources known to be economic