張曉君-生豬產業如何運用金融工具“穿越”豬周期.pdf

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1、生生豬豬產產業業如如何何運運用用金金融融工工具具“穿穿越越”豬豬周周期期How to use financial instruments in pig industryCrossing the pig cycle研究員：張曉君Researcher:Zhang Xiaojun2024年4月 April 2024聯系電話：0371-6561-7380Tel:0371-6561-7380從業資格：F0242716Qualification:F0242716投資咨詢：Z0011864Investment Consulting:Z0011864一帶一路國際生豬產業大會維維護護Maintenance契契合

2、合Compatibility欣欣賞賞Appreciation互互動動Interaction和和諧諧Harmony共共榮榮Co-prosperity01生生豬豬期期貨貨對對產產業業的的影影響響及及實實際際運運用用The Impact of Live Pig Futures on the Industry and Its Practical Application02生生豬豬期期貨貨分分析析邏邏輯輯及及行行情情展展望望Analysis Logic and Market Outlook of Live Pig FuturesCONTENTS一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期期貨貨對對產產業業的的影影

3、響響及及實實際際運運用用The Impact of Live Pig Futures on the Industry and Its Practical Application1一帶一路國際生豬產業大會4生生豬豬期期貨貨上上市市背背景景Background of live pig futures listing國國家家為為什什么么要要推推進進生生豬豬期期貨貨上上市市？Why should China promote the listing of pig futures?“養養殖殖+金金融融”促促進進養養殖殖業業現現代代化化進進程程快快速速發發展展 Breeding+finance promot

4、es the rapid development of breeding modernization背景一：超級豬周期下生豬價格起飛Background 1:The price of live pigs takes off under the super pig cycle背景二：我國養殖規?；潭容^低Background 2:The scale of breeding in China is relatively low.背景三：千方百計促養殖規模擴張Background 3:Do everything possible to promote the expansion of breedin

5、g scale下跌風險Downside risks如何規避How to avoid risks養殖Breeding生豬期貨Live pig futures養殖+金融Breeding+Finance數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures software下跌風險如何規避How to avoid Downside risks養殖+金融Breeding+Finance生豬期貨Live pig futures一帶一路國際生豬產業大會5生生豬豬期期貨貨對對生生豬豬產產業業的的影影響響Impact of Live Pig Futures on Pig Indust

6、ry產業規?；潭却蠓嵘齌he degree of industrial scale has been greatly improved頭部企業將長期收益Top enterprises will benefit in the long run引領產業重塑定價模式Leading the industry to reshape the pricing model引領產業創新貿易模式Leading the industry to innovate trade mode一帶一路國際生豬產業大會6加加快快縱縱向向整整合合，終終極極目目標標實實現現全全產產業業鏈鏈覆覆蓋蓋Speeding up vert

7、ical integration and achieving the ultimate goal of covering the whole industrial chain 縱觀美國生豬產業鏈的發展歷史，受益于資本生產效率的提升與技術水平的革新，肉類產業規?；谴髣菟?，而美國生豬產業鏈發展史就是肉制品零售消費端不斷發展壯大的歷史。Throughout the development history of the pig industry chain in America,it can be seen that the pig production in the U.S.benefits f

8、rom the improvement of capital production efficiency and the innovation of technological level.The large-scale production of the meat industry is the general trend,and the development history of the pig industry chain in the U.S.is the history of the continuous development and growth of the retail c

9、onsumer side of meat products.以美國SFD公司為例，在20世紀八十年代以后經歷了一系列收購和整合，公司生產覆蓋生豬全產業鏈，成為全球最大的豬肉生產加工商，其財務數據顯示在豬價大幅漲跌時，下游豬肉加工環節、上游飼料原料和中游生豬飼養環節相互配合，降低了因豬價大幅波動造成收入不穩定的影響，其公司營收基本呈穩定增長態勢。Taking SFD as an example,after a series of acquisitions and integrations since the 1980s,the company has become the worlds larg

10、est pork producer and processor,covering the whole pig industry chain.Its financial data show that when the price of pigs rises and falls sharply,the downstream pork processing link,the upstream feed raw materials and the midstream pig feeding link cooperate with each other.As a result,the impact of

11、 unstable income caused by large fluctuations in pig prices was reduced,and the companys revenue basically showed a steady growth trend.生豬期貨上市Live pig futures are listed 各環節參與套保Each link is involved in hedging套期保值Hedging規模企業鎖定成本和利潤Scale enterprises lock in costs and profits鎖定成本利潤Lock in costs and pr

12、ofits 利用資本杠桿快速縱向兼并Rapid Vertical Merger with Capital Leverage 實現全產業鏈覆蓋Achieve full industry chain coverage縱向一體化Vertical integration生生豬豬期期貨貨對對生生豬豬產產業業的的影影響響Impact of Live Pig Futures on Pig Industry牧原屠宰產能規劃3500萬頭，目前投產2900萬頭產能，22年屠宰736.2萬頭；The slaughter capacity of Muyuan is planned to be 35 million p

13、igs.At present,its production capacity has reached 29 million pigs and 7.362 million pigs were slaughtered in 2022;溫氏屠宰產能目前廣東，江西，內蒙、江蘇共400萬產能投入運營，2022年屠宰93.3萬頭；Wens Groups slaughter capacity is currently 4 million in Guangdong,Jiangxi,Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu,and 933,000 pigs were slaughtered in 2

14、022;新希望（千喜鶴）屠宰產能500萬頭，2022年屠宰量291萬頭；New Hope Group(Kinghey)has a slaughter capacity of 5 million pigs,with a slaughter volume of 2.91 million pigs in 2022;神農年屠宰產能250萬頭（昆明、曲靖）2022年屠宰量144.45萬頭；The annual slaughter capacity of Shennong Group is 2.5 million pigs(in Kunming and Qujing),with a slaughter c

15、apacity of 1.4445 million pigs in 2022;天康生物總規劃400萬頭屠宰產能，目前具備200萬頭屠宰能力；Tecon Biology Co.has a total planned slaughter capacity of 4 million pigs,and currently has a slaughtering capacity of 2 million pigs;天邦股份產能500萬頭，2022屠宰116.69萬頭；Techbank Co.,Ltd has a production capacity of 5 million pigs,and the

16、slaughter capacity in 2022 was 1.1669 million pigs.華統股份目前屠宰產能約1400萬頭，產能利用率約25-30%；At present,the slaughter capacity of Huatong Meat Products Co.,Ltd.is about 14 million,and the capacity utilization rate is about 25-30%;唐人神目前已運營屠宰產能200萬頭（湖南，河南）；Tang Ren Shen Group currently has a slaughtering capacit

17、y of 2 million pigs(Hunan,Henan);新五豐單班年屠宰產能50萬頭，在建135萬頭（寧遠、郴州）；New Wellful Co.,Ltd.has an annual slaughter capacity of 500,000 pigs per shift,with pig farms of 1.35 million pigs under construction(in Ningyuan and Chenzhou);鐵騎力士建成投產屠宰產能200萬頭；The slaughter capacity of Techlex is 2 million pigs;龍大肉食屠宰產

18、能1100萬萬頭，2022屠宰量589.36萬頭；The slaughtering capacity of Long Da Meat Food Co.,Ltd.is 11 million pigs,with a slaughtering volume of 5.8936 million pigs in 2022;東瑞股份（河源）100萬頭屠宰產能投產；Dongrui Group(in Heyuan)has put into operation a slaughtering capacity of 1 million pigs;山西大象屠宰產能170萬頭；The slaughter capaci

19、ty of Daxiang group in Shanxi is 1.7 million pigs;和佑（成都）年屠宰產能10萬頭；The annual slaughter capacity of Heyou(in Chengdu)is 100,000 pigs;廣墾年屠宰產能300萬頭（化州在建）；The slaughter capacity of Guangken Group is 3 million pigs(under construction in Huajian);揚翔年屠宰產能規劃200萬頭，貴港屠宰今年已投產An annual slaughter capacity of 2 m

20、illion pigs has been planned in Yang Xiang,and Guigang slaughtering has been put into operation this year雙胞胎目前已布局武漢、成都、廣州The Twins Group have laid out its production in Wuhan,Chengdu and Guangzhou.雙匯屠宰產能2500萬頭，2022年屠宰量1132萬頭The slaughter capacity of Shuang Hui Group is 25 million pigs,with a slaught

21、ering volume of 11.32 million pigs in 2022.中糧家佳康屠宰產能700萬頭The slaughter capacity of COFCO Jiakang Co.,Ltd.is 7 million pigs.德康規劃屠宰產能500萬頭，宜賓在建300萬頭Dekon Group plans to have a slaughter capacity of 5 million pigs,with a slaughter capacity of 3 million pigs under construction in Yibin.數據來源：農財寶典、公開資料整理、

22、卓創資訊Data sources:Agricultural Wealth,Public Information Compilation,Sublime China Information一帶一路國際生豬產業大會7生生豬豬期期貨貨對對生生豬豬產產業業的的影影響響Impact of Live Pig Futures on Pig Industry【國國家家統統計計局局】National Bureau of Statistics2024年一季度末，生豬存欄40850萬頭，同比下降5.2%；At the end of the first quarter of 2024,the inventory of

23、 live pigs was 408.5 million,a YOY decrease of 5.2%;一季度，生豬出欄19455萬頭，同比下降2.2%In the first quarter,194.55 million pigs were slaughtered,a YOY decrease of 2.2%一季度豬肉產量1583萬噸，同比下降0.4%The pork production in the first quarter was 15.83 million tons,a YOY decrease of 0.4%【農農業業農農村村部部】Ministry of Agriculture

24、and Rural Affairs2024年3月，20家大型生豬養殖企業能繁母豬存欄831.7萬頭，環比下降0.1%，同比增長3.8%；In March 2024,the inventory of breeding sows in 20 large-scale pig breeding enterprises was 8.317 million,a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%and a YOY increase of 3.8%;生豬存欄9498.5萬頭，環比增長1.1%，同比增長5.9%；The inventory of live pigs was 94.9

25、85 million,a month-on-month increase of 1.1%and a YOY increase of 5.9%;出欄生豬1520.7萬頭，環比增長42.5%，同比增長8.2%。15.207 million pigs were slaughtered,a month-on-month increase of 42.5%and a YOY increase of 8.2%.2024年1-3月，累計出欄生豬4383.2萬頭，同比增長9.8%。From January to March 2024,a total of 43.832 million pigs were sl

26、aughtered,a YOY increase of 9.8%.產產業業規規模?；坛潭榷却蟠蠓崽嵘?優優秀秀企企業業將將長長期期收收益益The degree of industrial scale has significantly increased Excellent enterprises will benefit in the long run數據來源：博亞和訊、農財寶典Data sources:Boyar,Agricultural Wealth 在在深深層層創創新新中中跨跨越越周周期期 “要要用用全全周周期期思思維維看看待待問問題題，堅堅持持長長期期主主義義”Crossi

27、ng the Cycle in Deep Innovation,We should look at problems with full-cycle thinking and adhere to long-term doctrine 近日，牧原股份董事長秦英林在接受中華工商時報采訪時表示：“豬周期”誰也回避不了，我們能做的就是坦然面對周期，奮力向內求?！巴馔獠坎凯h環境境是是一一樣樣的的，內內因因是是根根本本。突突破破豬豬周周期期，要要靠靠自自己己；養豬人體面有尊嚴，要靠自己。只有向內求，向己求，向下扎根，才能駕馭不確定，向確定性進發?！贝送?，面對行業發展的不確定性，靠靠技技術術、靠靠創創新新、

28、靠靠智智能能化化，這是秦英林眼中的確定性之一。在他看來，純粹依賴資本驅動并不具備可持續性，只只依依賴賴資資本本驅驅動動，我我們們和和任任何何行行業業過過剩剩一一樣樣，最最后后都都是是抬抬不不起起頭頭來來。在利益和誘惑面前，我們堅決斬斷跨界的手，斬斷伸出去的手。Recently,Qin Yinglin,Chairman of Muyuan Group,stated in an interview with China Business Times that no one can avoid the pig cycle.All we can do is face the cycle calmly

29、and strive to seek internally.The external environment is the same,and internal factors are fundamental.To break through the pig cycle,we need to rely on ourselves;we pig raisers have dignity and should rely on ourselves.Only by seeking internally,depending on ourselves,and rooting down can we contr

30、ol uncertainty and move towards certainty.In addition,facing the uncertainty of industry development,relying on technology,innovation,and intelligence is one of the certainties in Qin Yinglins eyes.In his view,relying solely on capital-driven development is not sustainable.Relying solely on capital-

31、driven development,like any industry with excess,will ultimately lead to failure.In the face of interests and temptations,we should resolutely hold the industrial bottom line.中國消費經濟學會副理事長、北京工商大學商業經濟研究所所長洪濤表示，預預計計未未來來豬豬肉肉價價格格的的波波動動將將趨趨于于平平滑滑，生生豬豬養養殖殖產產業業將將逐逐步步進進入入薄薄利利時時代代，促促使使企企業業加加強強管管理理、降降低低成成本本、增增

32、加加科科技技投投入入。Hong Tao,Vice Chairman of the China Society of Consumer Economics and Director of the Institute of Business Economics at Beijing University of Business and Technology,stated that it is expected that the fluctuation of pork prices will become smoother in the future,and the pig farming indu

33、stry will gradually enter the era of low profits,which will encourage enterprises to strengthen management,reduce costs,and increase investment in technology.問題：技術、創新？Problem:Technology,innovation?“我國生豬行業正面臨著前所未有的機遇和挑戰，隨著產業鏈價值重構和行業持續整合，行業大變局已拉開帷幕，生豬產業創新升級已是大勢所趨?！皞鹘y養殖”已無法滿足產業需求，其時代背景已經由單純的養殖變為金金融融+養養

34、殖殖”2020年企業參與生豬期貨市場的積極作用Chinas pig industry is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges.With the value reconstruction of the industrial chain and the continuous integration of the industry,great changes in the industry have begun,and the innovation and upgrading of the pig industry is the ge

35、neral trend.Traditional breeding has been unable to meet the needs of the industry,and its background has changed from simple farming to finance+breeding.The Positive Role of Enterprises in the Pig Futures Market in 2020一帶一路國際生豬產業大會8生生豬豬期期貨貨將將引引領領產產業業重重塑塑定定價價模模式式 Pig futures will lead the industry t

36、o reshape the pricing model基差貿易：Basis trade:成交價格=指定月份的生豬期貨價格產生的基準價+是通過雙方協商形成的升貼水價格，Transaction price=the benchmark price generated by the futures price of live pigs in the designated month+the premium and discount price formed through negotiation between the two parties.升貼水包括等級升貼水、地區差價及運費等。Premium a

37、nd discount include grade premium and discount,regional price difference and freight,etc.通過基差定價，規模豬場與屠宰場之間最難平衡的價格因素，就可以通過生豬期貨價格+升貼水來確定，利于雙方建立穩定的購銷貿易關系。另外，還可以通過基差的波動進行套利交易，追逐無風險利潤。Through basis pricing,the most difficult price factor to balance between large-scale pig farms and slaughterhouses can be

38、 determined by pig futures price+premium and discount,which is conducive to the establishment of stable purchase and sale trade relations between the two sides.In addition,arbitrage trading can be carried out through the fluctuation of the basis to pursue risk-free profits.已上市期貨品種基差貿易規模：70%的棕櫚油和豆粕、4

39、0%的豆油現貨貿易都以期貨價格為基準進行基差定價Basis trade scale of listed futures:70%of palm oil and soybean meal and 40%of soybean oil spot trade are priced on the basis of futures price.生生豬豬期期貨貨對對生生豬豬產產業業的的影影響響Impact of Live Pig Futures on Pig Industry一帶一路國際生豬產業大會9訂訂單單長長期期化化Long-term orders訂單長期化Long-term orders行業規?；疞ar

40、ge-scale development of industry縱向一體化整合Vertical integration公開市場交易Open market transactions減少風險敞口Reduce risk exposure中間貿易Intermediate trade以合同的方式規定生產者交貨的數量、交貨的地點和時間，價格則主要隨行就市，并根據產品的質量或規模給與相應的獎勵The quantity,place and time of delivery are stipulated by contract,while the price mainly follows the market,

41、and the corresponding incentives are given according to the quality or scale of the products.生生豬豬期期貨貨對對生生豬豬產產業業的的影影響響Impact of Live Pig Futures on Pig Industry一帶一路國際生豬產業大會10生生豬豬期期貨貨對對生生豬豬產產業業的的影影響響Impact of Live Pig Futures on Pig IndustryWHAT期貨的定義？What is the definition of futures?價格發現功能？What is th

42、e price discovery function?套期保值功能？What is the hedging function?期貨交易制度和風險管理制度？What are the futures trading system and risk management system?生豬期貨合約設計？What is the design of pig futures contract?生豬期貨交割標準？What is the delivery standard of pig futures?生豬期貨交割流程？What is the delivery process of pig futures?W

43、HY生豬期貨上市背景和意義？What is the background and significance of the listing of pig futures?生豬期貨對生豬產業的影響？What is the impact of pig futures on the pig industry?生豬期貨對定價模式有何影響？What is the impact of live pig commodities on the pricing model?生豬期貨對貿易模式有何影響？What is the impact of pig futures on trade patterns?生豬期貨對

44、產業鏈上各環節企業經營發展有什么影響？What is the impact of pig futures on the operation and development of enterprises in all links of the industrial chain?HOW如何利用生豬期貨的價格發現功能？How to use the price discovery function of pig futures?如何利用生豬期貨的套期保值功能？How to use the hedging function of pig futures?如何申請生豬期貨交割庫？How to apply

45、for live pig futures delivery warehouse?如何組建期貨團隊、構建制度和流程？How to set up a futures team,build a system and process?由繁化簡From Complexity to Simplicity由簡入繁From Simplicity to Complexity認識了解 由繁化簡 抓住核心本質Knowing and Understanding;From Complexity to Simplicity;Grasping the Core Essence一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期期貨貨上上市市

46、背背景景 高高額額養養殖殖利利潤潤刺刺激激產產能能盲盲目目大大幅幅擴擴張張Background of listing of pig futures high breeding profits stimulate blind and substantial expansion of production capacity生生豬豬期期貨貨上上市市意意義義 為為養養殖殖企企業業規規避避豬豬價價大大幅幅下下跌跌風風險險The Significance of Pig Futures Listing Avoiding the Risk of Pig Price Dropping Sharply for B

47、reeding Enterprises生生豬豬期期貨貨品品種種特特點點上上得得廳廳堂堂下下得得廚廚房房，穩穩健健運運行行是是第第一一要要務務；The characteristics of pig futures varieties being steady and solid.Stable operation is the top priority;生生豬豬期期貨貨運運行行特特點點 產產業業上上下下游游套套保保天天秤秤明明顯顯失失衡衡：賣賣保保重重、買買保保輕輕；每每個個合合約約都都有有故故事事；一一般般貼貼水水進進交交割割月月Live pig futures operation charac

48、teristics industry upstream and downstream hedging Libra obvious imbalance:Selling in large quantities and buying in small quantities;each contract has a story;general discount into the delivery month豬豬周周期期驅驅動動邏邏輯輯 利利潤潤率率周周期期，靠靠政政策策和和疫疫病病驅驅動動；行行業業變變革革升升級級中中，規規模?；仆苿觿迂i豬周周期期由由供供給給變變化化加加劇劇導導致致的的價價格格波波

49、動動大大周周期期調調整整為為因因季季節節性性需需求求以以及及疫疫病病因因素素波波動動而而演演繹繹的的價價格格變變動動小小周周期期Pig cycle driving logic Profit margin cycle is driven by policies and epidemic diseases;in the process of industry reform and upgrading,the large-scale pig cycle is adjusted from a large cycle of price fluctuations caused by intensified

50、 supply changes to a small cycle of price changes deduced by seasonal demand and epidemic disease fluctuations.2020202120222023202433.519.818.615？生生豬豬期期貨貨上上市市背背景景及及品品種種特特點點Background and breed characteristics of live pig futures一帶一路國際生豬產業大會12生生豬豬期期貨貨有有什什么么用用？What is the use of pig futures?價格發現Price

51、discovery套期保值Hedging2021年5月21日央視財經頻道財經評論員王超May 21,2021,CCTV Finance Channel Financial Commentator Wang Chao如何更好地進行科學合理的供需調配，來緩解豬周期對于養殖戶帶來的負面影響？How to better carry out scientific and rational supply and demand allocation to alleviate the negative impact of pig cycle on farmers?第一、加大權威信息發布、從而引導市場預期。Fi

52、rst,increase the release of authoritative information to guide market expectations.第二、用好金融工具。Second,make good use of financial instruments.通過生豬期貨的價格發現和套期保值作用去對豬肉價格波動起到穩定作用Through the price discovery and hedging effect of pig futures,the fluctuation of pork price can be stabilized.第三，通過規?；B殖的長期建設降低豬周

53、期波幅。Third,reduce the fluctuation of pig cycle through the long-term construction of large-scale breeding.數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures so一帶一路國際生豬產業大會13生生豬豬期期貨貨的的功功能能價價格格發發現現The Function of Pig Futures:Price Discovery價價格格發發現現機機制制Price discovery mechanism特指期貨市場所具有的通過公開競價而形成的能夠表明現貨市場未來價格變動趨勢

54、的功能與機制refers to the function and mechanism of futures market,which is formed by open bidding and can indicate the future price trend of spot market.數據來源：WINDData source:WIND有利于發現價格 重塑定價模式 It is helpful to discover the price and reshape the pricing model.生豬期貨上市后，將充分發揮期貨市場特有的價格發現功能，通過期貨市場交易運行機制形成具有真實性

55、、預期性、連續性和權威性的生豬期貨價格。After the listing of pig futures,it will give full play to the unique price discovery function of the futures market,and form an authentic,predictable,continuous and authoritative pig futures price through the trading operation mechanism of the futures market.可以指導生豬養殖、屠宰、加工企業合理安排

56、或及時調整經營計劃Pig breeding,slaughtering and processing enterprises are guided to arrange reasonably or adjust their business plans in time.可以通過改變近遠期的生豬和豬肉供應來調整時間結構上的錯配The mismatch in time structure can be adjusted by changing the supply of live pigs and pork in the near and long term.提高生豬相關行業對未來供求關系和價格變動

57、的預測能力Improve the ability of pig related industries to predict future supply and demand and price changes.平滑養殖周期中的價格波動，為企業正確經營決策、提高經營業績和經濟效益服務。Smoothing the price fluctuation in the breeding cycle can help enterprises make correct business decisions,improve business performance and economic benefits.

58、通過期貨價格發現功能，合理安排、調整經營策略Discover functions through futures prices,arrange and adjust business strategies reasonably避免集中踩踏導致豬價大幅下跌Avoid concentrated stampedes leading to a significant drop in pig prices1.二次育肥;Secondary fattening x;2.外購仔豬育肥 謹慎縮量;Outsourcing piglet fattening cautious shrinkage;3.減體重;Weig

59、ht reduction;3.加快出欄;Speed up the slaughter;規模養殖Scale breeding4.延遲配種;Delay breeding;5.屠宰降低凍品庫存水平 Slaughtering reduce frozen inventory levels一帶一路國際生豬產業大會14p生豬產業鏈：飼糧、農藥、飼料加工、養殖、屠宰、肉制品、終端消費Pig industry chain:feed,pesticide,feed processing,breeding,slaughter,meat products,terminal consumptionp期貨構建了從種植、貿易

60、、加工再到養殖的完整產業鏈風險管理閉環Futures has constructed a closed-loop risk management of a complete industrial chain from planting,trade,processing to breeding.p豬價步入下行周期，套期保值操作有助于養殖企業鎖定銷售價格、提高行業競爭力The price of pigs has entered a downward cycle,and hedging operation helps breeding enterprises to lock in sales pri

61、ces and improve the competitiveness of the industry.p套期保值是指以回避現貨價格風險為目的的期貨交易行為Hedging refers to futures trading for the purpose of avoiding spot price risk.p套期保值的基本形式 有兩種,即買入保值和賣出保值There are two basic forms of hedging,namely buying hedging and selling hedging.生生豬豬期期貨貨的的功功能能套套期期保保值值Function of pig Fu

62、tures:Hedging一帶一路國際生豬產業大會買入套期保值 Buying Hedging合約Contract方向Direction入場時間Entry time平均入場點位Average entry points出場時間Exit time平均出場點位Average exit points逐筆盈虧Individual profit and loss盈虧匯總Profit and loss summary2009合約2009 contract多Long20-3-19198020-4-292100+120+929點+929 points空short20-4-29209520-5-202020+75空

63、short20-6-1207820-6-152105-27多Long20-7-7211520-7-27至30持續離場Exited continually from 20-7-27 to 7-302320+2052105合約2105 contract多Long20-8-14及9-7兩次入場Entered 20-8-14 and 9-7（2300+2354）/2=232720-9-212513+186多Long20-11-12258020-11-302660+80多Long20-12-172610繼續持有 Continue to hold2900+290時間Time期貨價格Futures pric

64、es現貨價格Spot prices20-03-191970194621-01-1129002774盈虧Profit and loss+930-828買入套期保值操作后，期現合并計算，玉米采購成本僅為1844元/噸After buying hedging,combining current and future calculations,the purchase cost of corn is only 1844 yuan/ton生生豬豬期期貨貨的的功功能能套套期期保保值值Function of pig Futures:Hedging一帶一路國際生豬產業大會16賣出套期保值 Selling He

65、dging類別：擔心生豬價格下跌Category:Worried about falling pig prices套保目標：提前鎖定銷售價格Hedging objective:lock in the sales price in advance3月7日79美分/磅賣出開倉瘦肉豬期貨In March 7,79 cents/pound to sell open position lean pig futures一手生豬期貨盈虧 =（30000-15000）*16=24萬元Profit and loss of live pig futures per lot=(30000-15000)*16=240

66、,000 yuan一手生豬期貨保證金=30000*16*0.15=7.2萬元（投機）Live pig futures margins per lot=30000*16*0.15=72,000 yuan(speculation)=30000*16*0.08=3.84萬元（套保）=30000*16*0.08=RMB 38,400(hedging)生生豬豬期期貨貨的的功功能能套套期期保保值值Function of pig Futures:Hedging數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures soTrading strategy:emphasizing on

67、the timing rather than the trend.1.The first strategy unilateral:buying small quantities and selling at high prices;一帶一路國際生豬產業大會廣廣西西某某養養殖殖企企業業4月月上上旬旬對對LH2201合合約約進進行行賣賣出出套套期期保保值值操操作作A breeding enterprise in Guangxi sold the LH2201 contract for hedging in early April.時間Time生豬現貨價格Spot price of live pig

68、sLH2201生豬期貨 LH2201 live pig futures2021年4月7號 April 7,202124800元/噸 yuan/ton25900元/噸 yuan/ton2021年10月14號 October 14,202111500元/噸 yuan/ton15000元/噸 yuan/ton盈虧 Profit and loss-13300元/噸 yuan/ton+10900元/噸 yuan/ton賬戶（一手）Account(lot)-13300*16=-21.28萬元/手-13300*16=-212,800 yuan/lot10900*16=17.44萬元/手10900*16=17

69、4,400 yuan/lot賣出套期保值彌補大部分銷售虧損，生豬實際銷售價格為22.4元/公斤Selling hedging made up for most of the sales losses,and the actual selling price of live pigs was 22.4 yuan/kg.備注：現貨豬價為廣西玉林外三元價格Remarks:The spot price of crossbred pigs of three breeds in Yulin,Guangxi.未參與套期保值銷售價格為 11.5 元/公斤，The sales price without hed

70、ging is 11.5 yuan/kg.參與套期保值銷售價格為 22.4 元/公斤The sales price with hedging is 22.4 yuan/kg.一手生豬期貨16噸，相當于約145頭（110公斤）Pig futures per lot is 16 tons,equivalent to about 145(110 kg)期貨端盈利 17.44 萬元 Futures end profit 174,400 yuan 現貨端虧損 21.28 萬元 Spot end loss 212,800 yuan期貨、現貨合并計算現貨端虧損 僅 3.84 萬元The combined l

71、oss of futures and spot is only 38,400 yuan.生生豬豬期期貨貨套套保保案案例例分分析析Case Analysis of Pig Futures Hedging案案例例一一Case 1數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures so一帶一路國際生豬產業大會案案例例二二：2021年年3月月初初拜拜訪訪某某種種豬豬企企業業，Case 2:A pig enterprise was visited in early March 2021 建建議議背靠3萬進行賣出套期保值操作 It is suggested to sell h

72、edging with 30,000 as the benchmark.案案例例三三：某某養養殖殖企企業業 2021年年3月月拜拜訪訪開開戶戶。Case 3:A pig enterprise was visited and opened an account in early March 2021 2021年年10月月25日日、2021年年11月月26日日、2022 On October 25,2021,November 26,2021,and January 5,2022,年年1月月5日日三三次次錯錯失失賣賣保保機機會會 three opportunities of selling hedg

73、ing were missed.生生豬豬期期貨貨套套保保案案例例分分析析Case Analysis of Pig Futures Hedging數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures so一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期期貨貨套套保保案案例例分分析析Case Analysis of Pig Futures Hedging案案例例四四：生生豬豬期期貨貨買買入入套套期期保保值值方方案案20211207Case 4:Pig futures buying and hedging scheme 20211207數據來源：卓創資訊Data source:Subl

74、ime China Informat結合上述分析，我們認為生豬去產能進程仍未結束，豬價下行周期仍將延續，采購方面建議隨用隨采，生豬期貨買入套期保值時機仍待時日。建議等待去產能高峰來臨之后，可擇機擇時在生豬期貨盤面進行買入套期保值操作。Based on the above analysis,we believe that the process of pig capacity reduction is still not over,and the downward cycle of pig prices will continue.In terms of purchase,it is recom

75、mended to purchase as needed.The timing for buying and hedging pig futures is still uncertain.It is recommended to wait until the peak production capacity arrives,and then choose the right time to buy hedging on the pig futures market.生豬期貨買入套期保值方案Case Analysis of Pig Futures Hedging一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期

76、期貨貨套套保保案案例例分分析析Case Analysis of Pig Futures Hedging案案例例五五：生生豬豬期期貨貨買買入入套套期期保保值值方方案案202204Case 5:Pig futures buying and hedging scheme 202204數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures so玉米生豬期貨周報 Corn and Pig Futures Weekly 玉米多單持有 生豬觀望等待入場機會Multiple holdings of corn;Live pigs wait and see for admission o

77、pportunities一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期期貨貨市市場場愈愈加加成成熟熟The pig futures market is becoming more mature.生生豬豬期期貨貨價價格格發發現現功功能能在在逐逐漸漸發發揮揮，為為養養殖殖主主體體生生產產經經營營提提供供著著越越來來越越重重要要的的參參考考。The price discovery function of pig futures is gradually playing a role,which provides more and more important reference for the producti

78、on and operation of the main breeding body.一些龍頭養殖企業開始通過關注和運用生豬期貨行情及時了解未來豬價走勢，可以提前核算養殖收益，來合合理理安安排排出出欄欄計計劃劃、調調整整養養殖殖規規模模和和飼飼養養周周期期。Some leading breeding enterprises began to pay attention to and use the pig futures market to timely understand the future trend of pig prices,so that they could calculate

79、 the breeding income in advance to rationally arrange the slaughter plan,adjust the breeding scale and feeding cycle.2022年10月中旬，生豬現貨價格在28元30元/公斤，但期貨2301的價格最高只有24元/公斤。按傳統理解，2301是旺季合約，理論上應比2022年10月價格高，但期貨市場給出的遠期價格卻低于現貨。In mid-October 2022,the spot price of live pigs was 28-30 yuan/kg,but the highest p

80、rice of futures 2301 was only 24 yuan/kg.According to the traditional understanding,2301 is the peak season contract,which should theoretically be higher than the price in October 2022,but the forward price given by the futures market is lower than the spot price.當時，現貨市場存在大量二次育肥和壓欄等因素導致階段性供需失衡，現貨價格存

81、在虛高成分，期期貨貨市市場場通通過過遠遠月月合合約約2 23 30 01 1的的價價格格給給予予了了糾糾正正和和引引導導，為為產產業業建建立立理理性性預預期期提提供供信信息息。果然，到2023年1月現貨價格回落。At that time,there were a large number of factors such as secondary fattening and column pressure in the spot market,leading to the periodic imbalance between supply and demand,and the spot pric

82、e was artificially high.The futures market gives correction and guidance through the price of the far-month contract 2301,providing information for the industry to establish rational expectations.Sure enough,spot prices fell in January 2023.2023年，生豬期貨總成交量1 13 34 42 2萬萬手手，同同比比增增加加6 62 2.2 2%。2023年16家

83、A股上市豬企參與商品套期保值額度合計達69.8億元，同比增長14.86%。交割方面，生豬期貨交割區域包括2 22 2個個省?。▍^區、市市），覆蓋我國主要生豬養殖區域。生豬期貨交割庫點為4 42 2家家（含集團交割庫分庫36家及非集團交割庫6家）、覆蓋1 14 4個個省?。ㄗ灾螀^）。In 2023,the total trading volume of pig futures was 13.42 million lots,an increase of 62.2%YOY.In 2023,16 A-share listed pig companies participated in a total

84、of 6.98 billion yuan in commodity hedging,a YOY increase of 14.86%.In terms of delivery,the delivery area of pig futures includes 22 provinces(regions,cities),covering the main pig breeding areas in China.There are 42 pig futures delivery warehouses(including 36 group delivery warehouses and 6 non-g

85、roup delivery warehouses),covering 14 provinces(autonomous regions).今年，大商所繼續免免收收交交割割手手續續費費、期期轉轉現現手手續續費費、標標準準倉倉單單轉轉讓讓貨貨款款收收付付手手續續費費、標標準準倉倉單單作作為為保保證證金金手手續續費費等，有效降低產業參與成本。同時，目前生豬期貨免免收收套套保保交交易易手手續續費費，并并實實施施套套保保投投機機差差異異化化保保證證金金政政策策，目目前前一一般般月月份份套套期期保保值值交交易易保保證證金金標標準準為為8 8%。This year,Dalian Commodity Excha

86、nge continues to waive delivery fees,futures conversion fees,standard warehouse receipt transfer payment fees,and standard warehouse receipt as margin fees,effectively reducing industry participation costs.At the same time,pig futures are currently exempt from hedging transaction fees and have imple

87、mented a differentiated margin policy for hedging speculation.At present,the standard monthly margin for hedging transactions is 8%.這這些些舉舉措措均均有有利利于于降降低低生生豬豬期期貨貨市市場場參參與與成成本本，提提高高養養殖殖企企業業資資金金使使用用效效率率，便便于于產產業業利利用用期期貨貨市市場場進進行行風風險險管管理理。These measures are conducive to reducing the participation cost of th

88、e pig futures market,improving the efficiency of fund utilization for breeding enterprises,and facilitating the industry to use the futures market for risk management.數據來源：WINDData source:WIND一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期期貨貨市市場場愈愈加加成成熟熟The pig futures market is becoming more mature.2 20 02 23 3年年豬豬價價持持續續在在低低位位徘

89、徘徊徊，生生豬豬養養殖殖企企業業幾幾乎乎全全年年處處于于虧虧損損狀狀態態，生生豬豬期期貨貨盤盤面面全全年年走走擠擠升升水水邏邏輯輯，對對于于2 20 02 23 3年年生生豬豬期期貨貨全全合合約約來來說說又又一一個個難難得得的的套套保保大大年年，已已參參與與生生豬豬期期貨貨賣賣出出套套期期保保值值的的養養殖殖企企業業能能夠夠切切實實有有效效的的規規避避豬豬價價下下跌跌風風險險。In 2023,the pig price continued to hover at a low level,the pig breeding enterprises were in a state of loss a

90、lmost throughout the year,and the pig futures market squeezed the logic of premium throughout the year,which was another rare hedging year for the whole contract of pig futures in 2023.The breeding enterprises that have participated in the selling and hedging of pig futures can effectively avoid the

91、 risk of falling pig prices.在新產業格局下，未參與套保的養殖企業對于風險管理的需求愈加迫切，越來越多的企業正在加入或嘗試使用期貨套期保值功能進行風險管理。生豬期貨上市以來養殖企業參與生豬期貨套期保值的熱情不斷高漲。In the new industrial landscape,breeding enterprises that have not participated in hedging have an increasingly urgent need for risk management,and more and more enterprises are j

92、oining or attempting to use futures hedging functions for risk management.Since the listing of pig futures,the enthusiasm of breeding enterprises to participate in pig futures hedging has been continuously increasing.A股上市豬企參與包括生豬期貨在內的商品期貨套期保值額度保持穩步增長。據據統統計計2 20 02 23 3年年1 16 6家家A A股股上上市市豬豬企企參參與與商商品品

93、套套期期保保值值額額度度合合計計達達6 69 9.8 8億億元元，同同比比增增長長1 14 4.8 86 6%。在上述多家上市豬企公布的開展商品期貨套期保值公告中，涉涉及及的的期期貨貨品品種種包包括括但但不不限限于于玉玉米米、大大豆豆、豆豆粕粕、豆豆油油、菜菜粕粕、菜菜油油、生生豬豬等等期期貨貨及及期期權權合合約約，上述期貨品種基本上涵蓋了生豬養殖的原料端和銷售端所需要風險管理的對應品種，助力養殖企業通過原料端買入套期保值提前鎖定原料成本，通過生豬期貨賣出套期保值提前鎖定銷售價格，從而實現全產業鏈風險管理閉環。除此之外，養殖企業也會根據企業自身情況積極探索期現結合的路徑來最大程度鎖定養殖利潤。

94、例如具備生豬交割庫資質的養殖企業，可以根據現貨區域價差、不同體重段價格對比來選擇現貨或期貨作為最佳銷售途徑；不具備生豬交割庫資質的企業可以根據企業自身情況選擇在最有利區域和體重段的生豬進行遠期鎖價等期現基差交易。The participation of A-share listed pig companies in commodity futures hedging,including live pig futures,has maintained steady growth.According to statistics,the total amount of commodity hedgi

95、ng participated by 16 A-share listed pig companies in 2023 reached 6.98 billion yuan,a YOY increase of 14.86%.In the commodity futures hedging announcements released by multiple listed pig companies mentioned above,the futures varieties involved include but are not limited to futures and option cont

96、racts for corn,soybeans,soybean meal,soybean oil,rapeseed meal,rapeseed oil,live pigs,etc.The above-mentioned futures varieties basically cover the corresponding varieties required for risk management in the raw material and sales ends of live pig farming,helping breeding enterprises to lock in raw

97、material costs in advance through raw material buying hedging,and lock in sales prices in advance through pig futures selling hedging,thus achieving a closed-loop risk management throughout the entire industry chain.In addition,breeding enterprises will actively explore the path of combining short-t

98、erm and short-term based on their own situation to maximize the locking of breeding profits.For example,breeding enterprises with qualifications for pig delivery warehouses can choose spot or futures as the best sales channels based on the price difference in spot areas and price comparisons in diff

99、erent weight ranges;Enterprises that do not have the qualifications for pig delivery warehouses can choose pigs in the most favorable area and weight range for forward price locking and other basis trading based on their own situation.另外，對于衍生品接受程度較高且運用較成熟的企業，也可以在期貨套期保值的基礎上，運用場內期權、場外期權等衍生品工具進行多元化、全方位

100、的價格風險管理。In addition,for enterprises with high acceptance and mature use of derivatives,they can also use derivative tools such as over-the-counter options and over-the-counter options on the basis of futures hedging for diversified and comprehensive price risk management.2024年4月9日期貨日報養殖專題深度采訪-On Apr

101、il 9,2024,a special in-depth interview on breeding was conducted in the Futures Daily數據來源：卓創資訊Data source:Sublime China Information一帶一路國際生豬產業大會23生生豬豬期期貨貨的的功功能能套套期期保保值值Function of pig Futures:Hedging一、企業風險類別識別I.Identification of enterprise risk categories二、風險敞口確定及量化II.Risk exposure determination and

102、quantification三、價格走勢及基差分析III.Price trend and basis analysis四、套期保值方案設計IV.Hedging scheme design五、套期保值效果分析V.Hedging Effect Analysis一帶一路國際生豬產業大會24套期保值策略 hedging strategy1、從宏觀的角度確定套期保值策略1.Determine the hedging strategy from a macro perspective2、從產業角度判斷套期保值時機2.Judge the timing of hedging from the perspect

103、ive of industry （1）從生產利潤、生產成本角度判斷套期保值時機 (1)Judge the hedging opportunity from the perspective of production profit and production cost （2）從供需關系角度判斷套期保值時機 (2)Judge the timing of hedging from the perspective of supply and demand3、從基差角度選擇套期保值入場和出場點3.Select the entry and exit points of hedging from the

104、perspective of basis生生豬豬期期貨貨的的功功能能套套期期保保值值Function of pig Futures:Hedging 制定詳細明確的套保計劃 Formulate a detailed and clear hedging plan 1、明確買賣方向，確定套保數量 1.Define the direction of buying and selling and determine the quantity of hedging 2、制定好相應的進場策略和了結方式 2.Formulate the corresponding approach strategy and s

105、ettlement method 3、制定保證金風險控制計劃 3.Formulate the margin risk control plan 套期保值效果評價 Evaluation of hedging effect 1、評價角度是規避風險而非追逐利潤 1.The evaluation perspective is to avoid risks rather than pursue profits.2、現貨經營和期貨套保合并計算 2.Combined calculation of spot operation and futures hedging一帶一路國際生豬產業大會25進入實操 由簡入

106、繁 不斷完善Entering practical operations From Complexity to Simplicity Improving Constantly1、企業如何構建組織架構1.How to build an organizational structure for an enterprise 組織機構設置 Organizational structure 制度設計 System design2、套期保值業務流程2.Hedging Business Process3、如何識別與控制套保時面臨的風險3.How to identify and control the risk

107、s faced by hedging4、企業參與套保后，如何進入會計處理4.How to enter the accounting treatment after the enterprise participates in the hedging5、套期保值績效評估5.Evaluation of hedging performance.企企業業架架構構、流流程程、制制度度Enterprise structure,process and system一帶一路國際生豬產業大會企企業業架架構構、流流程程、制制度度Enterprise structure,process and system操作層面

108、Operational level制度層面System level流程層面Process levelEnterprise Hedging 5W Decision SystemEnterprise Hedging Decision SystemFlow chart of hedging businessCorporate hedging system一帶一路國際生豬產業大會2 20 02 23 3年年往往期期套套保保方方案案回回顧顧Review of previous hedging schemes in 2023Hedging strategy of selling LH2311 contra

109、ctaHedging Strategy of LH2307 Secondary FatteningFeasibility Analysis of Using Pig Futures to Avoid the Risk of Frozen Product Price FluctuationConsider participating in hedging operations for LH2403 and LH2405 contracts at high prices.LH2403 can focus on selling hedging opportunities above 16500,wh

110、ile LH2405 can focus on selling hedging opportunities above 17000.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會2 20 02 23 3年年往往期期套套保保方方案案回回顧顧Review of previous hedging schemes in 2023Suggestions on Hedging Strategies for Selling Pig FuturesHedging Strategy of Selling LH2401 Secondary FatteningSuggestions on Hedging Strategies for S

111、elling Pig FuturesHedging strategy of selling far-month contract of live pig futuresHedging Scheme of Selling LH2407 ContractHedging Scheme of Selling LH2409 Contract一帶一路國際生豬產業大會2 20 02 23 3年年往往期期套套保保方方案案回回顧顧Review of previous hedging schemes in 2023Hedging strategy of selling pig futures contract L

112、H2411Hedging scheme for selling far-month contract of pig futuresHedging strategy of selling pig futures contract LH2407一帶一路國際生豬產業大會2 20 02 24 4年年套套保保方方案案回回顧顧Review of 2024 Hedging Scheme一帶一路國際生豬產業大會 我公司多年來始終秉承“金融創新服務實體經濟”宗旨，以“保險+期貨”為有效抓手服務鄉村特色產業。自2017年以來連續承做“保險+期貨”項目。項目覆蓋海南、山西、山東、甘肅、四川、新疆、廣東、河北等省，涉

113、及品種有天然橡膠、雞蛋、玉米、生豬、紅棗、蘋果等農產品，方案涉及普通期權和亞式、障礙期權等奇異期權。Our company has always adhered to the principle of financial innovation serving the real economy for many years,using insurance+futures as an effective lever to serve rural characteristic industries.Since 2017,we have been continuously undertaking th

114、e Insurance+Futures project.The project covers provinces such as Hainan,Shanxi,Shandong,Gansu,Sichuan,Xinjiang,Guangdong,and Hebei,involving various agricultural products such as natural rubber,eggs,corn,live pigs,red dates,apples,etc.The plan involves ordinary options and exotic options such as Asi

115、an and barrier options.“保保險險+期期貨貨”模模式式目目前前已已進進入入全全面面推推廣廣期期，在在按按照照中中央央一一號號文文件件的的要要求求，在在總總結結經經驗驗中中不不斷斷優優化化完完善善，以以期期形形成成適適合合中中國國國國情情的的農農業業風風險險管管理理模模式式。The insurance+futures model has entered a comprehensive promotion period.It has been continuously optimized and improved through summing up experience i

116、n accordance with the requirements of the No.1 central document,with a view to forming an agricultural risk management model suitable for Chinas national conditions.2021年2022年，大商所支持開展生豬“保險+期貨”項目368個個，涉及現貨量112.9萬萬頭頭，累計實現賠付4.23億億元元，覆蓋河河南南、四四川川、湖湖南南等養豬大省。In 2021-2022,Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE)suppo

117、rted368 insurance+futures projects,involving spot stock of 1.129 million heads of hogs,and a total of 423 million yuan was paid for compensation,covering many major pig farming provinces such as Henan,Sichuan and Hunan.今年以來，已有江江蘇蘇、廣廣西西、廣廣州州等地政府明確對生豬“保險+期貨”繼續給予資金支持。Since this year,local governments o

118、f Jiangsu,Guangxi,Guangzhou and others have claimed to continue to provide funding support to hog insurance+futures projects.越越來來越越多多的的養養殖殖戶戶正正在在建建立立起起風風險險管管理理意意識識，合合理理利利用用金金融融工工具具避避險險。More and more farmers are arising risk management awareness and utilizing financial instruments reasonably for hedg

119、ing.生生豬豬保保險險+期期貨貨模模式式Hog insurance+futures model一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬保保險險+期期貨貨模模式式Hog insurance+futures model“保險+期貨”是一種農產品期貨價格保險，2016年以來連續7年寫入中央一號文件；Insurance+futures is a type of agricultural futures price insurance,which has been included in Chinas No.1 Central Document for seven consecutive years sinc

120、e 2016.“保險+期貨”核心是一個場外期權，通過保險、期貨兩種金融工具的有機結合，既發揮農業保險覆蓋面廣、農戶認知度高、基層服務網絡下沉的優勢，又利用期貨市場價格發現和套期保值的基礎性功能，形成對價格風險的分散與轉移。At the core of insurance+futures is an over-the-counter option,which organically combines insurance and futures,leveraging the advantages of broad agricultural insurance coverage,high farme

121、r awareness,and the penetration of grassroots service networks,while also utilizing the fundamental functions of price discovery and hedging in the futures market,thereby diversifying and transferring price risks.價格保險Price insurance場外期權Over-the-counter option期貨市場Futures market投資者1Investor 1投資者2Inves

122、tor 2投資者NInvestor N農農戶戶/合作社Farmers/Cooperatives保險公司Insurance company商品期貨市場Commodities futures market農戶1Farmer 1農戶2Farmer 2農戶NFarmer N依據期貨價格開發價格保險產品Develop insurance products based on futures price期貨公司風險子公司Risk management subsidiaries of futures companies風險傳遞Risk transmission風險轉移Risk transfer風險分散Risk

123、 diversification農戶3Farmer 3投資者3Investor 31 買價格或收入險1 Buy price or income insurance2 購買場外期權2 Buy OTC option3 復制期權3 Replicate option對沖風險Hedging risk4 行權結算4 Exercise settlement5 核實理賠5 Claim verification操作步驟：Steps:第一步：投保人向保險公司購買農產品“保險+期貨”產品；Step 1:The insured purchases agricultural insurance+futures prod

124、ucts from the insurance company.第二步：保險公司向期貨風險管理子公司購買農產品場外期權；Step 2:The insurance company purchases over-the-counter agricultural options from its futures risk management subsidiary.第三步：期貨公司風險管理子公司充當再保險人角色，通過期貨來復制期權，將風險轉移至期貨市場；Step 3:The futures companys risk management subsidiary acts as a reinsurer

125、,replicating options through futures to transfer risk to the futures market.第四步：保險公司向期貨公司風險管理子公司到期行權（或放棄行權）；Step 4:The insurance company exercises(or abandons)options with the futures companys risk management subsidiary upon maturity.第五步：保險公司向投保戶到期賠付。Step 5:The insurance company pays claims to the p

126、olicyholders upon maturity.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會保保險險+期期貨貨項項目目運運作作流流程程Operational process of a“Insurance+futures”project政府補貼Government subsidies交易所Exchange期貨公司Futures company社會資金Social funds農民自籌Farmer-raised funds農戶或合作社Farmers or cooperatives保險公司Insurance company格林大華資本GELIN Dahua CAPITAL Management Co.,Ltd.購買

127、保險Purchase insurance購買期權Purchase options行權Exercise賠付Payouts期貨市場Futures market一帶一路國際生豬產業大會申申請請主主體體：格格林林大大華華期期貨貨有有限限公公司司Applicant:Gelin Dahua Futures Co.,Ltd.l服務對象：河南濟源生豬養豬戶（5戶）Service recipients:Five pig farmers in Jiyuan,Henanl申請主體：格林大華期貨有限公司、廣州期貨Applicant:Gelin Dahua Futures Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Futu

128、resl合作保險公司：中華聯合財產保險股份有限公司河南分公司Collaborating insurance company:China United Property Insurance Co.,Ltd.Henan Branch實實際際案案例例分分享享（一一）Real Case I養殖戶Farmer保險公司Insurance company期貨公司Futures company風險管理公司Risk management company期貨市場Futures market到期理賠Claim settlement upon maturity購買價格險Purchase price insurance

129、風險轉移Risk transfer場外期權轉移價格風險OTC options transfer price risks場外期權賠付Claim settlement of OTC options風險管理Risk management一帶一路國際生豬產業大會名名稱稱Item生生豬豬價價格格保保險險Hog price insurance保保險險期期間間Insurance period1個月1 month價價格格標標的的物物Underlying asset大連商品交易所LH2201合約DCE contract LH2201入入場場價價格格Entry price17200元/噸（以當時價格為準）17,2

130、00/ton(price at the time)執執行行價價格格Exercise price等于入場價格（平值）Equals entry price(at the money)結結算算價價格格Settlement price保險期內每日收盤價與執行價格較小值的算術平均值。The arithmetic average of the closing prices and the exercise price,whichever is lower,during the insurance period.鎖鎖定定賠賠付付Lock in payout若結算價格未低于入場價50%，觸發鎖定賠付300元/

131、噸，否則鎖定賠付為0If the settlement price is not below 50%of the entry price,triggering a locked payout of 300 yuan per ton;otherwise,the locked payout is 0.權權利利金金費費率率Option premium rate4.77%（不含通道費）4.77%(Excluding channel fees)保保險險費費率率Insurance premium rate5.25%（含通道費10%）5.22%(including channel fee of 10%)承承

132、保保數數量量（噸噸）Insured amount(ton)997.6854總總保保費費（元元）Total premium(RMB)100萬元1 million yuan賠賠付付Payouts(max(執行價格-結算價格，0)+鎖定賠付*承保數量(max(exercise price-settlement price，0)+lock in payout*insured amount備備注注Notes保險費=投保價格*保險費率*承保數量Premium=insured price*insurance premium rate*insured amount方方案案：保保底底+增增強強亞亞式式期期權權結

133、結構構Scheme:Guaranteed+Enhanced Asian Option Structure一帶一路國際生豬產業大會保險產品情況Insurance product details期限Period8.27-9.27目標價格（元/噸）Target price(yuan/ton)17200投保數量（噸）Insured amount(ton)1107.4197結算價（元/噸）Settlement price(yuan/ton)15188.5保險金額（萬元）Insurance coverage amount(10000 yuan)1904.7624總保費（萬元）Total premium(1

134、0000 yuan)100單位保額（元/噸）Unit coverage amount17200保險費率Insurance premium rate5.25%保保險險產產品品情情況況Insurance product details一帶一路國際生豬產業大會保保險險期期間間行行情情走走勢勢圖圖Market trend during insurance period一帶一路國際生豬產業大會采價日期Price determination date采價Price determination采價日期Price determination date采價Price determination2021/8/27

135、171752021/9/10150702021/8/30164302021/9/13145752021/8/31167602021/9/14143852021/9/1165652021/9/15141102021/9/2160852021/9/16145802021/9/3160902021/9/17141752021/9/6159652021/9/22136852021/9/7159102021/9/23136002021/9/8155852021/9/24136702021/9/9149952021/9/2714360采價天數Price determination period(days)

136、20實際平均參考價Actual average reference price15188.5保保險險期期間間結結算算價價采采價價情情況況Price determination during the insurance period一帶一路國際生豬產業大會理理賠賠情情況況Claims批次Batch一批One batch保障目標價格（元/噸）Guaranteed target price(yuan/ton)17200結算價格（元/噸）Settlement price(yuan/ton)15188.5理賠標準（元/噸）Claim standard(yuan/ton)2011.5理賠總額Total c

137、laim amount255.98萬元2.5598 million yuan保費總額（元）Total insurance premium(yuan)100萬元1 million yuan賠付率Claim rate255.98%項目總賠付約255.98萬元，總保費約100萬元，賠付率255.98%。The total project claim payout is about 2.5598 million yuan,total insurance premium about 1 million yuan,a claim rate of 255.98%.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會實實際際案案例例分分

138、享享（二二）Real Case II生生豬豬期期貨貨價價格格保保險險Hog future price insurance一噸保費=279000/514.83=541.9元，最低賠付240.822元/噸Premium/ton=279000/514.83=541.9 yuan,minimal claim 240.822 yuan/ton一頭保費=541.9/1000*12065元，最低賠付28.89元/頭Premium/head=541.9/1000*12065 yuan,minimal claim 28.89 yuan/head數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master F

139、utures so一帶一路國際生豬產業大會生生豬豬期期貨貨分分析析邏邏輯輯及及行行情情展展望望Analysis Logic and Market Outlook of Live Pig Futures2一帶一路國際生豬產業大會42宏觀Macro供需Supply-demand產業Industry世世界界觀觀 W WH HA AT TWorldview-What邏輯順序不變，調整位置排序Logic remains,order changes宏觀（貨幣周期/流動性）擇勢Macro(monetary cycle/liquidity)-trend selection產業（庫存周期/利潤傳導）擇機Indu

140、stry(inventory cycle/profit transmission)-opportunity selection供需（時間周期/主要矛盾）擇時Supply and demand(time cycle/main contradictions)-timing selection 方方法法論論 H HO OW W Methodology-How 驅動因子輪動 Driving factor rotation 驅動軸 or 傳動軸 Drive axis or Transmission axis 確定性 or 不確定性 Certainty or Uncertainty 絕對變量 or 邊際變

141、量 Absolute variables or Marginal variables確定性 方向 不確定 時機Certainty direction Uncertainty timing 嵌套？共振？級別？Nested?Resonance?Level?分分析析邏邏輯輯框框架架Analyse logic framework一帶一路國際生豬產業大會乘乘天天地地之之正正，任任萬萬物物之之性性，生生于于無無極極，化化為為太太極極，動動于于陽陽，止止于于陰陰也也。In accordance with the principles of heaven and earth,embracing the inn

142、ate nature of all things,originating from the boundless void,transforming into the Great Ultimate,moving towards yang and settling into yin.貨貨幣幣周周期期/流流動動性性monetary cycle/liquidity生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯宏宏觀觀邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Macro LogicCPI從23年10月份起連續四個月同比為負,宏觀調控政策持續發力顯效。今年2月，我國CPI企穩回升，同比由1月

143、下降0.8%轉為上漲0.7%，其中扣除食品和能源價格的核心CPI漲幅為2022年2月以來最高。這是23年9月以來CPI漲幅首次由負轉正。Since October 2023,CPI has been negative year-on-year for four consecutive months,and the macroeconomic control policies have continued to show effectiveness.In February of this year,Chinas CPI stabilized and rebounded,with a year-o

144、n-year increase of 0.7%compared to a 0.8%decrease in January.The core CPI,excluding food and energy prices,recorded the highest increase since February 2022.This is the first time CPI has turned positive since September 2023.圖：我國CPI、PPI以及生豬價格走勢圖Figure:Chinas CPI,PPI and hog price.圖：我國CPI當月同比Figure:C

145、hinas CPI year-on-year by month數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures software一帶一路國際生豬產業大會數據來源：WINDData source:WIND完整周期Complete cycle上升階段Rising phase下降階段Declining phase完整周期Complete cycle最大漲幅Maximum increase周期1Cycle 11995.6-1999.51995.6-1997.101997.10-1999.547個月47 months28.3周期2Cycle 21999.5-2003.51

146、999.5-2001.22001.2-2003.548個月48 months34.4周期3Cycle 32003.5-2006.52003.5-2004.92004.9-2006.536個月36 months67.1周期4Cycle 42006.5-2010.42006.5-2008.42008.4-2010.447個月（上漲20，下跌27）47 months（20 up,27down）183.1藍耳PRRS周期5Cycle 52010.4-2014.42010.4-2011.92011.9-2014.448個月（上漲17，下跌31）48 months(17 up,31 down)106.5口

147、蹄疫FMD周期6Cycle 62015.3-2018.52015.3-2016.62016.5-2018.538個月（上漲16，下跌22）38 months(16 up,22 down)70環保Environmental protection周期7 Cycle 7 2018.5-2021.102018.5-2019.112019.11-2021.1041個月（上漲18，下跌23）41 months(18 up,23 down)310非洲豬瘟ASF周期8Cycle 82021.10-2021.10-2022.102022年10月-？October 2022-?160豬豬周周期期產產能能周周期期/

148、利利潤潤周周期期/價價格格周周期期Hog cycle-production capacity cycle/profit cycle/price cycle政政策策和和疫疫病病是是主主要要驅驅動動Policy and diseases are the main drivers一帶一路國際生豬產業大會前前幾幾輪輪周周期期底底部部曾曾經經發發生生不不同同程程度度疫疫情情，加加速速了了產產能能去去化化In the previous cycles,varying degrees of disease outbreaks occurred during the bottom phase,accelerat

149、ing the de-overcapacity.2 20 00 06 6 年年-2 20 02 20 0 年年三三輪輪周周期期底底部部均均出出現現兩兩個個以以上上“虧虧損損底底”From 2006 to 2020,each of the three cycle bottoms witnessed two or more instances of loss bottoms.圖：2006 年-2020 年三輪周期底部，國內豬價出現 2-3 個虧損底Figure:From 2006 to 2020,each of the three cycle bottoms witnessed 2-3 insta

150、nces of hog price loss bottoms.2008年3月-2011年9月前后兩輪周期高點之間的底部區域出現了兩個“虧損底”；2011年9月-2016年6月前后兩輪周期高點之間的底部區域出現了三個“虧損底”；Between the high points of the two cycles between March 2008 to September 2011,there were two loss bottoms in the bottom region.Between September 2011 and June 2016,there were three loss

151、bottoms in the bottom region between the high points of the two cycles.2016年6月-2020年前后兩輪周期高點之間的底部區域出現了兩個“虧損底”。2021年6月至今已出現本輪周期下行筑底階段的第三個“虧損底”。Between June 2016 and around 2020,there were two loss bottoms in the bottom region between the high points of the two cycles.Since June 2021,the third loss bo

152、ttom has appeared in the bottoming stage of this cycles downturn.2 20 02 24 4年年是是磨磨底底進進入入尾尾聲聲迎迎來來上上漲漲行行情情 還還是是 會會迎迎來來第第4 4個個“虧虧損損底底”？Whether 2024 marks the end of the bottoming phase and the beginning of an upward trend or will witness the emergence of the fourth loss bottom remains uncertain.本輪周期磨底

153、時間如此之長，是“非洲豬瘟”帶來“非常周期”后的一次“非常調整”。The prolonged bottoming phase of this cycle represents an unusual adjustment following the unusual cycle caused by African Swine Fever.背后兩個重要原因：一、豬瘟疫病常態化；二、投資沖動的產業后遺癥。Two important reasons behind this:first,the normalization of the swine fever epidemic;second,the aft

154、ermath of investment impulses in the industry.政政策策和和疫疫病病是是主主要要驅驅動動 Policy and diseases are the main drivers豬豬周周期期產產能能周周期期/利利潤潤周周期期/價價格格周周期期Hog cycle-production capacity cycle/profit cycle/price cycle數據來源：山西證券Data source:Shanxi Securities一帶一路國際生豬產業大會 2 20 02 24 4年年是是磨磨底底進進入入尾尾聲聲 還還是是 會會迎迎來來第第4 4個個“虧虧

155、損損底底”？Will 2024 mark the end of the bottoming phase or witness the emergence of the fourth loss bottom?母母豬豬存存欄欄下下降降 =產產能能下下降降？Sow inventory decline=capacity decline?生生豬豬產產能能是是指指在在一一定定時時期期內內豬豬肉肉的的生生產產能能力力 /一一年年能能出出欄欄多多少少頭頭豬豬 Swine production capacity refers to the ability to produce pork over a certa

156、in period /the number of pigs that can be produced in one year.生生豬豬產產能能變變量量考考慮慮母母豬豬存存欄欄、M MS SY Y、出出欄欄均均重重等等。Variables affecting pig production capacity include the inventory of sows,MSY,and the average market weight.2 21 1-2 23 3年年鋼聯數據平均PSY:16.8-17.5-20；涌益數據平均MSY：17.39-18.16-18.72 According to Gang

157、lian data from 2021 to 2023,the average PSY ranges from 16.8 to 17.5 to 20,and the average MSY ranges from 17.39 to 18.16 to 18.72 according to Yongyi data.假設產能高位4400*15.3=6.73億頭 4100*17=6.97億頭 Assuming maximum capacity 4400*15.3=673 million pigs,4100*17=697 million pigs政政策策和和疫疫病病是是主主要要驅驅動動 Policy a

158、nd diseases are the main drivers豬豬周周期期產產能能周周期期/利利潤潤周周期期/價價格格周周期期Hog cycle-production capacity cycle/profit cycle/price cycle資料來源：國家統計局、農業農村部、英國養豬業委員會、涌益資訊、卓創資訊Data source:National Bureau of Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,British Pig Association,Yongyi Information,Sublime China

159、Information圖：2021年各國PSY對比Figure:2021 PSY of different countries圖：涌益監測生豬平均MSYFigure:Average pig MSY according to YongyiPSYMSY201820.2316.59201921.1916.53202021.3817.11202122.8218.49202223.8919.59202325.120.83圖：卓創監測生豬平均PSY/MSY Average pig PSY/MSY according to Sublime China Information一帶一路國際生豬產業大會產業Ind

160、ustry資資金金、技技術術推推動動我國養殖端或處于規?；M程深水區的前半程，豬周期處于由供給變化加劇導致的價格波動大周期向季節性需求及疫病因素波動而演繹的價格變動小周期的中中間間階階段段。Funds and technology are driving Chinas farming sector,which may be in the early stages of a deep-water zone in the process of scaling up.The swine cycle is in the intermediate stage,transitioning from a l

161、ong cycle characterized by price fluctuations intensified by supply changes to shorter cycles driven by seasonal demand and disease factors.養殖端集團企業占地盤尚未結束。低成本、資金狀況良好的企業繼續擴張，長期來看養殖成本將繼續下移。The expansion of large-scale farming group enterprises is still ongoing.Companies with low costs and healthy fina

162、ncial conditions continue to expand.In the long term,farming costs are expected to continue to decrease.養殖端內卷帶動原料、屠宰等全產業鏈競爭加劇，行業各環節進入微利時代。The intensification of internal competition within the farming sector is driving increased competition throughout the entire industry chain,including raw material

163、s and slaughter.Every link in the industry is entering an era of thin profit margins.資料來源：山西證券Data source:Shanxi Securities圖：美國生豬養殖規?；M程Figure:process of scaling up in Americas pig farming industry圖：美國豬價走勢Figure:pig price trend in the USA圖：美國生豬屠宰企業數量Figure:number of pig slaughter companies in the US

164、A圖：丹麥生豬養殖規?；M程Figure:process of scaling up in Danmarks pig farming industry生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯產產業業邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Industrial Logic一帶一路國際生豬產業大會產業Industry資資金金、技技術術推推動動我國養殖端或處于規?；M程深水區的前半程，豬周期處于由供給變化加劇導致的價格波動大周期向季節性需求及疫病因素波動而演繹的價格變動小周期的中中間間階階段段。Funds and technology are driving Chinas fa

165、rming sector,which may be in the early stages of a deep-water zone in the process of scaling up.The swine cycle is in the intermediate stage,transitioning from a long cycle characterized by price fluctuations intensified by supply changes to shorter cycles driven by seasonal demand and disease facto

166、rs.養養殖殖端端集集團團企企業業占占地地盤盤尚尚未未結結束束。低成本、資金狀況良好的企業繼續擴張，長期來看養殖成本將繼續下移。The expansion of large-scale farming group enterprises is still ongoing.Companies with low costs and healthy financial conditions continue to expand.In the long term,farming costs are expected to continue to decrease.養殖端內卷帶動原料、屠宰等全產業鏈競爭

167、加劇，行業各環節進入微利時代。The intensification of internal competition within the farming sector is driving increased competition throughout the entire industry chain,including raw materials and slaughter.Every link in the industry is entering an era of thin profit margins.資料來源：公開資料整理Source:public resources圖：生豬

168、養殖上市公司資產負債率Figure:The asset-liability ratio of listed pig farming companies圖：我國生豬養殖市場份額變化Figure:Changes of market shares in Chinas pig farming market生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯產產業業邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Industrial Logic部分上市企業生豬出欄量情況(萬頭)Numbers of produced pigs of some listed companies(unit:10,000 h

169、eads)一帶一路國際生豬產業大會產業Industry資資金金、技技術術推推動動我國養殖端或處于規?；M程深水區的前半程，豬周期處于由供給變化加劇導致的價格波動大周期向季節性需求及疫病因素波動而演繹的價格變動小周期的中中間間階階段段。Funds and technology are driving Chinas farming sector,which may be in the early stages of a deep-water zone in the process of scaling up.The swine cycle is in the intermediate stage,

170、transitioning from a long cycle characterized by price fluctuations intensified by supply changes to shorter cycles driven by seasonal demand and disease factors.養養殖殖端端集集團團企企業業占占地地盤盤尚尚未未結結束束。低成本、資金狀況良好的企業繼續擴張，長期來看養殖成本將繼續下移。截截至至2 20 02 23 3年年底底，1 11 18 8家家萬萬頭頭（能能繁繁母母豬豬）豬豬企企產產能能利利用用率率平平均均值值為為6 67 7%。T

171、he expansion of large-scale farming group enterprises is still ongoing.Companies with low costs and healthy financial conditions continue to expand.In the long term,farming costs are expected to continue to decrease.As of the end of 2023,the average capacity utilization rate of 118 large-scale pig f

172、arming enterprises,measured in terms of sow capacity(over 10,000 sows),was 67%.養殖端內卷帶動原料、屠宰等全產業鏈競爭加劇，行業各環節進入微利時代。The intensification of internal competition within the farming sector is driving increased competition throughout the entire industry chain,including raw materials and slaughter.Every lin

173、k in the industry is entering an era of thin profit margins.資料來源：新豬派公開信息Source:public information from Xinzhupa圖：2023年各梯隊能繁母豬存欄占比Figure:percentages of productive sows of companies of different tiers,2023圖：萬頭豬企數量及對應的能繁母豬總數（單位：家、萬頭）Figure:number of companies that have over 10,000 sows and sum of their

174、 sows(unit:company,10,000 heads)圖：2022/2023年不同規模豬企能繁母豬數量總和（單位：萬頭）Figure:Total number of sow(unit:10,000 heads)in pig enterprises of different scales in 2022/2023生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯產產業業邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Industrial Logic圖：2023年萬頭能繁母豬豬企產能利用率分部Figure:Distribution of sow capacity utilizatio

175、n rates in pig companies of 10,000 sows in 2023一帶一路國際生豬產業大會需需求求邏邏輯輯：長長期期來來看看豬豬肉肉消消費費在在肉肉類類消消費費占占比比中中回回落落。Demand logic:Long-term trend shows a decline in the proportion of pork consumption in total meat consumption.年年度度內內在在季季節節性性規規律律中中尋尋求求消消費費和和供供給給相相對對強強弱弱關關系系Seeking relative relationship between co

176、nsumption and supply within seasonal patterns throughout the year.家家庭庭消消費費6 60 0%：考考慮慮人人口口結結構構變變化化、飲飲食食理理念念變變化化等等Household consumption:60%-Considering changes in population structure,dietary preferences,etc.餐餐飲飲消消費費2 20 0%：考考慮慮經經濟濟增增速速、旅旅游游、學學校校等等Catering consumption:20%-Considering economic growth,

177、tourism,schools,etc.供供給給邏邏輯輯：疫疫病病和和政政策策是是長長期期驅驅動動的的關關鍵鍵因因素素。Supply Logic:Disease outbreaks and policies are key long-term driving factors.能能繁繁母母豬豬（種種豬豬/后后備備母母豬豬）：理理論論上上對對應應1 10 0個個月月后后生生豬豬出出欄欄，量量、質質并并重重 Sows(breeding pigs/sow):Correspond theoretically to the pigs produced 10 months later,with both q

178、uantity and quality emphasized.初初生生仔仔豬豬（配配種種、豬豬精精）：理理論論上上對對應應5 5-6 6個個月月后后生生豬豬出出欄欄 Piglets(breeding,boar semen):Correspond theoretically to the pigs produced 5-6 months later.出出欄欄體體重重（集集團團場場/散散戶戶、存存欄欄結結構構）：從從生生豬豬出出欄欄到到豬豬肉肉供供給給的的直直接接變變量量 Finished weight(group farms/individual farms,inventory structur

179、e):Direct variables from commercial pig to pork supply.二二次次育育肥肥（逐逐漸漸規規模?；?、體體系系化化）：從從生生豬豬出出欄欄到到豬豬肉肉供供給給的的間間接接變變量量 Secondary fattening(gradual scaling up,systematization):Indirect variables from commercial pig to pork supply.凍凍品品庫庫存存（屠屠宰宰場場/進進口口）：考考慮慮國國內內屠屠宰宰主主動動o or r被被動動，凍凍品品進進口口利利潤潤 Frozen invento

180、ry(slaughterhouses/imported):Consider domestic slaughterhouses active or passive actions,profit from frozen imports.豬豬肉肉儲儲備備：政政策策導導向向大大于于實實際際意意義義，影影響響市市場場情情緒緒 Pork reserves:Policy orientation outweighs practical significance,affecting market sentiment.難難點點：量量化化過過程程中中存存在在的的變變量量較較多多，變變量量受受市市場場情情緒緒主主導導

181、Challenges:There are many variables in the quantification process,and these variables are influenced by market sentiment.供給主導市場，消費影響幅度Supply drives the market,consumption affects the extent生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯供供需需邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Supply-demand Logic綜合生產效率看出欄預估Output estimated based on

182、comprehensive production efficiency.重點關注疫病影響Focus on the impact of diseases.重點關注集團節奏Focus on the pace of large-scale farming.影響短期市場供給，模式愈加成熟Affects short-term market supply,with increasingly mature models.監測難度較大Monitoring difficulty is relatively high.看政策導向Focus on policy guidance.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會數據來源：國

183、家統計局、農業農村部、卓創資訊、格林大華期貨Data source:National Bureau of Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Sublime China Information and Gelin Dahua Futures 表：能繁母豬存欄對應10個月后出欄Figure:breeding sow inventory corresponds to the produced pigs after 10 months 從從能能繁繁母母豬豬看看供供應應 Look at supply from breeding so

184、ws 統統計計局局最最新新數數據據顯顯示示2 24 4年年3 3月月末末全全國國能能繁繁母母豬豬存存欄欄量量3 39 99 92 2萬萬頭頭，是正常保有量3900萬的102.4%，處于綠色區域，仍以市場調節為主，不需要啟動調控措施。According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics,as of the end of March 2024,the total inventory of breeding sows in China was 39.92 million heads,which is 102.4%of

185、the normal holding level of 39 million heads,indicating that it is in the green zone.Therefore,the market remains the main mechanism for regulation,and there is no need to implement control measures.按照23年3月至24年2月能繁母豬存欄平均數為4210萬頭，基本對應今年生豬出欄供給，按照PSY20，成活率85%，推算今年生豬出欄約為 Based on the average inventory o

186、f breeding sows from March 2023 to February 2024,which was 42.10 million heads,it roughly corresponds to the supply of pigs slaughtered this year.Assuming a PSY(pigs slaughtered per year)of 20 and a survival rate of 85%,the estimated number of pigs slaughtered this year is approximately7 7.1 16 6億億頭

187、頭，略低于2023年7.26億的出欄頭數，仍高于2022年6.99億的出欄頭數，即今年全年生豬整體出欄仍處于較高水平。716 million,slightly lower than the 726 million slaughtered in 2023 but still higher than the 699 million slaughtered in 2022.This indicates that the overall pig slaughter for the year remains relatively high.圖：我國能繁母豬存欄量Figure:Inventory of b

188、reeding sows in China圖：4胎及以上淘汰母豬價格Figure:Price of culled p4+sows圖：卓創監測166家能繁母豬存欄量Figure:Breeding sows inventory of 166 companies as monitored by Sublime China Information全全年年生生豬豬整整體體出出欄欄或或仍仍處處于于較較高高水水平平The overall pig slaughter for the year remains relatively high.圖：卓創監測166家樣本企業能繁母豬淘汰量Figure:Number

189、of culled breeding sows from 166 companies as monitored by Sublime China Information日日期期Date能能繁繁母母豬豬存存欄欄（萬萬頭頭）Breeding sow inventory(10,000 heads)對對應應1 10 0個個月月后后出出欄欄Slaughter time in 10 months較較4 4月月末末增增幅幅（絕絕對對增增幅幅）Increase compared to end of April(absolute increase)環環比比增增幅幅（邊邊際際增增幅幅）MOM increase(m

190、arginal increase)2022年4月末41772023年2月2022年5月末41922023年3月0.36%2022年6月末42772023年4月2.39%2.03%2022年7月末42982023年5月2.9%0.51%2022年8月末43242023年6月3.52%0.62%2022年9月末43622023年7月4.43%0.91%2022年10月末43792023年8月4.84%0.41%2022年11月末43882023年9月5.05%0.21%2022年12月末43902023年10月5.1%0.05%2023年1月末43672023年11月4.5%-0.6%2023年2

191、月末43432023年12月3.9%-0.6%2023年3月末43052024年1月3%-0.9%2023年4月末42842024年2月2.56%-0.44%2023年5月末42582024年3月1.9%-0.66%2023年6月末42962024年4月2.8%0.9%2023年7月末42712024年5月2.2%-0.6%2023年8月末42412024年6月1.5%-0.7%2023年9月末42402024年7月1.5%0%2023年10月末42102024年8月0.8%-0.7%2023年11月末41582024年9月-0.4%-1.2%2023年12月末41422024年10月-0.8

192、%-0.4%2024年1月末40672024年11月-2.6%-1.8%2024年2月末40422024年12月-3.2%-0.6%2024年3月末39922025年1月-4.4%-0.8%生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯供供需需邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Supply-demand Logic一帶一路國際生豬產業大會中中大大豬豬存存欄欄：2月份全國規模豬場的中大豬存欄量環比下降1.1%，3月末中大豬存欄量同比下降3%，對應二季度生豬出欄量減少。Finishing pig inventory:In February,the inventory of f

193、inishing pigs(medium-large)in large-scale pig farms across the country decreased by 1.1%MOM.By the end of March,the inventory of finishing pigs decreased by 3%YOY,corresponding to a reduction in pig slaughter in the second quarter.仔仔豬豬來來看看：從新生仔豬數量看，2023年10月起新生仔豬數量開始減少，2024年3月止降回升，期間新生仔豬數量比上年同期下降4.9%

194、。春節前后冬季仔豬腹瀉疫病平穩。Piglets:The number of newborn piglets started to decrease from October 2023 and rebounded in March 2024.During this period,the number of newborn piglets decreased by 4.9%compared to the same period last year.Piglet diarrhea disease in winter remained stable around the Chinese New Yea

195、r.出出欄欄體體重重：23年中部四季度疫病影響疊加春節前集團場提前大量出欄，春節后市場中大豬源減少，肥標價差拉大，集團場普遍壓欄增重，二育進場截流部分豬源，導致生豬出欄體重自2月中下旬以來持續抬升。卓創資訊數據顯示，截截至至4 4月月1 18 8日日出出欄欄體體重重為為1 12 24 4.0 07 7元元/公公斤斤，同比增加0.9%。天氣轉熱，終端消費疲弱，肥標價差收窄，截截至至4 4月月2 23 3日日肥肥標標價價差差為為0 0.0 08 8元元/斤斤，較近期高點回落0.27元/斤。養殖端進一步壓欄預期減弱，出欄體重增幅放緩，關注養殖端主動減重時間窗口何時出現，或兌現階段性增重壓力預期。Sl

196、aughter weight:In the fourth quarter of 2023,the impact of diseases was compounded by a large number of pigs sold from group farms before the Chinese New Year.After the Chinese New Year,the supply of finishing pigs in the market decreased,leading to an increase in the price difference between fat an

197、d standard pigs.Group farms generally keep finishing pigs for more weight gain instead of selling them,and part of pig sources were cut off thereby,resulting in a continuous increase in pig slaughter weight since mid to late February.According to the data of SCI99.Com,as of April 18th,the slaughter

198、weight price was 124.07 yuan/kg,an increase of 0.9%year-on-year.As the weather gets hotter,terminal consumption weakens,and the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows,to 0.08yuan/kg as of April 23rd,a decrease of 0.27 yuan/kg from the recent high point.The expectation of further keep

199、ing pig in pens for weight gain on the farming side is weakening,and the growth rate of pig slaughter weight is slowing down.Attention should be paid to when the farming side will actively reduce weight,or when the expectation of pressure on temporary weight gain will be realized.凍凍品品庫庫存存：卓創資訊數據顯示凍品

200、庫容率自23年5月達到高點以來持續回落。今年春節后豬價震蕩上行，屠宰企業入凍積極性不足。截至3月28日，凍品庫容率為22.97%，同比降5.84%。待二季度豬價上漲，23年入庫凍品仍將積極出庫，但對毛豬行情影響有限。Frozen inventory:According to data from SCI99.Com,the frozen inventory capacity rate has continued to decline since reaching a high point in May 2023.After this Chinese New Year,pig prices hav

201、e fluctuated upwards,and slaughtering enterprises have insufficient willing for storage frozen products.As of March 28th,the storage capacity of frozen products was 22.97%,a YOY decrease of 5.84%.The price of pigs will rise in the second quarter,and frozen products that have been stored in 2023 will

202、 still be actively released,but the impact on the live pig market is limited.進進口口方方面面：今年我國1-3月累計進口豬肉26萬噸，同比減少50.9%；累計進口豬肉及豬雜碎55萬噸，同比較少32.9%。目前看凍品進口對毛豬價格影響不大。Imports:China imported 260000 tons of pork from January to March this year,a YOY decrease of 50.9%;Accumulated imports of 550000 tons of pork a

203、nd pig offal,a YOY decrease of 32.9%.At present,it seems that the import of frozen products has little impact on the price of live pigs.豬豬肉肉收收儲儲：發改委價格監測中心顯示截至4月17日最新豬糧比為6.35:1，目前退出過度下跌預警區間。Pork reserve:The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission shows that as of Apr

204、il 17th,the latest hog to corn ratio was 6.35:1,and it is currently out of the warning range for excessive decline.數據來源：卓創資訊、WIND圖：凍品庫容率Figure:Frozen product storage capacity rate圖：肥標價差走勢圖Figure:Trend chart of price difference between fat and standard pigs圖：生豬周度交易均重Figure:Weekly average trading weig

205、ht of live pigs生生豬豬市市場場分分析析邏邏輯輯供供需需邏邏輯輯Logic of Swine Market Analysis-Supply-demand Logic一帶一路國際生豬產業大會 當當前前生生豬豬年年度度觀觀點點暫暫仍仍維維持持以以下下2 20 02 24 4年年生生豬豬年年報報觀觀點點生生豬豬去去產產能能進進入入實實質質階階段段2 20 02 23 31 11 12 29 9The current view on the annual pig production is still maintained as the opinion from the 2024 Ann

206、ual Pig Report:Pig Production Capacity Reduction Has Entered A Substantive Stage.宏宏觀觀邏邏輯輯：2 20 02 24 4年年宏宏觀觀調調控控政政策策將將持持續續發發力力顯顯效效，穩穩物物價價政政策策指指引引力力度度有有望望加加大大 Macro logic:In 2024,macroeconomic control policies will continue to exert significant effects,and the guidance of stabilizing prices policies

207、is expected to be enhanced 產產業業邏邏輯輯：養養殖殖端端仍仍處處規規模?；M進程程深深水水區區，生生豬豬去去產產能能進進入入實實質質階階段段。豬豬瘟瘟疫疫病病常常態態化化，或或延延長長去去產產能能周周期期。（橫橫向向、縱縱向向）Industry logic:The large-scale development at farming end is still in a uncharted water,and the reduction of pig production capacity has entered a substantial stage.Swine

208、fever has become a regular disease,which may extend the cycle of production capacity reduction.(Horizontal and Vertical)供供需需邏邏輯輯：2 20 02 24 4年年整整體體供供需需或或相相對對均均衡衡，養養殖殖成成本本有有望望繼繼續續下下移移；豬豬價價或或圍圍繞繞養養殖殖成成本本呈呈現現季季節節性性波波動動規規律律 Supply and demand logic:In 2024,the overall supply and demand may be relatively

209、balanced,and farming costs are expected to continue to decline;Pig prices may exhibit seasonal fluctuations around farming costs行行情情展展望望：Market outlook:雖然2023年能繁母豬存欄量小幅下降，但考慮到生產效率普遍提升，當前生豬產能仍高于正常保有量。今年9月以來局部地區生豬疫病導致產能被動去化加速，但當前集團場后備母豬充足，高淘對應高補，因此被動去化難以形成產能的實質去化，價價格格長長周周期期拐拐點點目目前前仍仍難難以以預預見見。然而，考考慮慮到到

210、被被動動淘淘汰汰到到補補欄欄之之間間的的時時間間差差或或對對應應階階段段性性供供給給相相對對減減少少，或或推推動動豬豬價價呈呈現現小小周周期期的的上上漲漲行行情情。綜上，目前來看2 20 02 24 4年年沒沒有有大大的的供供需需矛矛盾盾，供供需需關關系系相相對對溫溫和和，預預計計2 20 02 24 4年年全全年年供供需需或或相相對對均均衡衡。Although the inventory of reproductive sows has slightly decreased in 2023,considering the general improvement in production e

211、fficiency,the current pig production capacity is still higher than the normal inventory.Since September this year,local pig epidemics have accelerated the passive reduction of production capacity.However,group farms currently has sufficient replacement,and behind the high culling rate is a high supp

212、lement rate.Therefore,passive reduction is difficult to form a substantial reduction in production capacity,and the long-term turning point in prices is still difficult to predict.However，given that the time difference between passive culling and replacement,or the relative reduction in phased suppl

213、y,or the promotion of a small-scale upward trend in pig prices。In summary,currently there is no major supply-demand contradiction in 2024,and the supply-demand relationship is relatively mild.It is expected that the supply and demand will be relatively balanced throughout 2024.總體來看，2 20 02 24 4年年豬豬價

214、價整整體體或或呈呈現現前前低低后后高高，全全年年均均價價或或略略高高于于2 20 02 23 3年年。上半年供給壓力仍較明顯，春節前后豬價或先揚后抑；下下半半年年供供給給壓壓力力同同比比減減弱弱，豬豬價價重重心心或或有有所所抬抬升升，但但養養殖殖成成本本預預期期下下移移將將限限制制向向上上空空間間。Overall,in 2024,pig prices may show a trend of low prices followed by high prices,with an average annual price slightly higher than in 2023.The supply

215、 pressure in the first half of the year is still significant,and pig prices may rise first and then fall before and after the Chinese New Year;The supply pressure in the second half of the year has weakened year-on-year,and the focus of pig prices may rise,but the expected downward shift in farming

216、costs will limit upward space.具體來看，一季度，春節（2月10日）前1-2月上旬在消費旺季預期下豬價或展開波段反彈；春節后2月中旬-3月供強需弱或施壓豬價繼續走低；（關注冬季肥豬疫病情況、收儲政策等）Specifically,in Q1,from January to early February before the Chinese New Year(February 10th),pig prices may experience a rebound in the expected peak consumer season;From mid February t

217、o March after the Chinese New Year,there will be strong supply and weak demand,or pressure on pig prices to continue to decline;(Pay attention to the situation of winter pig diseases,reserve policies,etc.)二季度，供需回歸相對平衡，豬價展開階段修復，回歸至養殖成本附近區間；生生豬豬市市場場觀觀點點及及操操作作建建議議Viewpoints on the pig market and operat

218、ional suggestions出欄頭數Pig sales出欄體重Market weight豬肉產量Pork output年度均價Annual average price20216.7億頭670 million heads127.36529619.820226.9億頭690 million heads122.22554118.620237.26億頭726 million heads122.8657941520247.16億頭?716 million heads?122.82?16-17?In Q2,supply and demand will return to relative balan

219、ce,and pig prices begin to recover,returning to be around the range of farming cost;三季度，今年冬季局部母豬被動去化對應階段性供給減少，豬價有望啟動波段上漲行情推動養殖利潤轉正，向上空間相對有限；（關注養殖成本、二育入場情況）In Q3,this winter,some sows will be passively culled,corresponding to a temporary decrease in supply.Pig prices are expected to start going up,dr

220、iving profits to turn positive,but with relatively limited upward space;(Pay attention to the farming costs and the situation of keeping finishing pigs for another finishing period)四季度，季節性消費預期增強，豬價或先抑后揚，向上空間取決于供給/消費的相對增量，重點關注一季度母豬淘汰節奏對應四季度出欄預期。（2025年春節1月29日）In Q4,seasonal consumption is expected to

221、be increased,and pig prices may first decline and then rise.The upward space depends on the relative increase in supply/consumption,with a focus on the pace of sow culling in the first quarter corresponding to the expected output in the fourth quarter.(2025 Chinese New Year is on January 29)一帶一路國際生豬

222、產業大會生生豬豬市市場場觀觀點點及及操操作作建建議議Viewpoints on the pig market and operational suggestions此此輪輪上上漲漲行行情情的的驅驅動動邏邏輯輯：提提前前兌兌現現漲漲價價預預期期 The driving logic of this round of upward trend:early realization of the expectations for price increase 1、宏觀調控政策持續發力顯效，CPI同比由負轉正。（降準；央行資產負債表去年從7月40.8-12月末45.6萬億元；兩會貨幣政策空間足夠，工具箱依

223、然豐富）1.The sustained efforts of macroeconomic regulation policies have shown remarkable results,and the CPI has turned from negative to positive YOY.(required reserve ratio reductions;the central banks balance sheet was RMB 45.6 trillion yuan in the end of Dec from 40.8 trillion yuan in July in last

224、year;the Two Sessions stated that there is enough room for monetary policies,and the toolbox is still rich)2、能繁母豬存欄持續減少，抄底豬周期資金進場。2.The inventory of reproductive sows continuous to decrease and capitals enters for bargain-hunting in this pig price cycle.3、養殖成本低位抬升仔豬價格觸底回升；原料價格止跌。3.Farming costs is r

225、aising from a low position-Piglets price hit the bottom and rebounded;Raw materials prices stopped falling.4、23年中部四季度疫病影響兌現。4.Impacts by the diseases in Q4 2023 is showing.5、春節前集團積極出欄，春節后大豬供給減少，標肥價差推動集團場普遍壓欄增重。5.Before the Chinese New Year,group farms actively sold pigs;but after Chinese New Year,su

226、pply of finished pigs reduced.the price difference between fat and standard pigs drove group farms to keep pigs for more weight gain.此此輪輪上上漲漲行行情情累累積積的的風風險險：The risks accumulated in this round of upward trend:1、宏觀驅動兌現后回歸產業供需邏輯。1.After the effect of macro drive is realized,it will return to the logic

227、of industrial supply and demand.2、壓欄增重導致出欄均重持續增加，供給壓力后移。2.Keeping pigs for more weight gain leads to continuous increase of average market weight,bringing later pressures.3、氣溫轉熱肥標價差持續縮小，南方疫病風險增加，養殖端有望主動減重。3.The price difference between fat and standard pigs is continuously shrinking due to the weath

228、er turning warmer.The risk of diseases is increasing in south China.So farms are expected to actively reduce pig weight.4、能繁母豬存欄仍高于正常保有量，春節后仔豬仔豬價格上漲、淘汰母豬價格堅挺、市場看漲情緒升溫，二季度能繁母豬存欄繼續下降動能不足。4.The inventory of reproductive sows is still higher than normal.After the Chinese New Year,the prices of piglets h

229、ave increased,and the prices of culled sows have remained strong.The markets bullish sentiment has heated up,and the inventory of reproductive sows in the second quarter continues to decline,lacking momentum.排除疫病影響，預計2025年一季度供給仍較充裕。If without the impact of epidemics,it is expected that the supply wi

230、ll remain relatively abundant in the first quarter of 2025.5、盤面已經給出相當的養殖利潤，養殖企業賣保積極性明顯提升。當前養殖成本區間大致為14.5-16.5元/公斤，15-15.5元/公斤附近為樣本集中區域。5.The market has already provided considerable farming profits,and the enthusiasm of farming enterprises to sell has significantly increased.The current farming cost

231、 is about 14.5-16.5 yuan/kg,with a sample concentration area around 15-15.5 yuan/kg.期貨遠月合約接近18元/公斤價格激發養殖企業套保積極性。The price of futures in later month contracts approaching 18 yuan/kg,stimulating the hedging enthusiasm of farming enterprises.6、現貨持續拉漲后凍品出庫壓力仍存，但對毛豬價格影響力度有限。6.After the continuous rise in

232、 spot prices,there is still pressure on frozen products to be released from the warehouse,but the impact on pig prices is limited.行行情情展展望望 Market outlook 天氣轉熱，肥標價差收窄，養殖端進一步壓欄預期減弱，出欄體重增幅放緩，階段性供需相對平衡下豬價或仍將維持震蕩整理。今日早間豬價北弱南穩。關注養殖端主動減重時間窗口是否出現以及南方降雨影響。中期來看：從中大豬及新生仔豬數據來看，二季度生豬出欄數量環比減少，生豬供求格局有望改善，豬價整體預期向好。

233、然而，階段性壓力后移或限制豬價上漲幅度；長期來看，三季度供需偏緊或支撐豬價展開階段性上漲，當前盤面提前兌現漲價預期。然而，母豬產能仍高于合理水平或限制下半年豬價上方空間，關注母豬去化速度及疫病影響程度。As the weather has turned warmer,the price difference of fat and standard pigs has narrowed,and the expectation of further keeping pigs for more weight gain on the farming end has weakened.The growth

234、 rate of market weight has slowed down,and pig prices may continue to fluctuate under a stage of relative balance between supply and demand.Today morning,pig prices were weak in the north and stable in the south.Pay attention to whether the time window for active weight reduction on the farming end

235、has appeared and the impact of rainfall in the south.In the medium term,based on the data of finishing pigs and newborn piglets,the number of live pigs sold in the second quarter decreased MOM,and the supply and demand pattern of live pigs is expected to improve.The overall expectation for pig price

236、s is positive.However,the temporary pressure may shift back or limit the increase in pig prices;In the long run,the tight supply and demand in the third quarter may support a phased increase in pig prices,and the current market has realized the expected price increase ahead of schedule.However,the p

237、roduction capacity of sows is still higher than a reasonable level,which may limits the space above pig prices in the second half of the year.Attention should be paid to the speed of sow inventory reduction and the extent of the impact of diseases.操操作作建建議議 Operational suggestions 2405合約走基差修復邏輯，下方支撐關

238、注14500，上方壓力關注15000；遠月合約階段性或維持高位震蕩，建議逢高賣保思路不變，已有賣保持倉可關注上方壓力效果，2407合約下方支撐15900-16000，上方壓力16500-16700；2409合約下方支撐17500，上方壓力18300-18500；2411合約下方支撐17500-17600，上方壓力18400-18500；2501合約下方支撐17500，上方壓力18150-18300；2503合約下方支撐16000-16100，上方壓力16500-16600。2405 contract follows the basis repair logic,with support bel

239、ow focusing on 14500 and pressure above focusing on 15000;Later month contracts may experience periodic or maintained high level with volatility.It is recommended to keep the idea of selling hedging at high price.For existing selling hedging and holding positions,attention should be paid to the effe

240、ct of upward pressure.The 2407 contract supports 15900-16000 below,while the upward pressure is 16500-16700;2409 contract supports 17500 below,with an upward pressure of 18300-18500;The support below contract 2411 is 17500-17600,and the pressure above is 18400-18500;Under the 2501 contract,there is

241、a support of 17500 and an upward pressure of 18150-18300;The 2503 contract has a support of 16000-16100 below and a pressure of 16500-16600 above.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會 方方向向 確確定定性性 Direction-Certainty 時時機機 阻阻力力最最小小 Timing-Minimum resistance 節節奏奏 預預期期你你的的預預期期的的預預期期 Rhythm-Expectations of Your Expectations 搶搶跑跑

242、 現現貨貨/期期貨貨快快人人一一步步 Rush-Spot/Futures Take One Step Faster思思考考：（2 20 02 24 4年年3 3月月2 22 2日日生生豬豬線線下下沙沙龍龍）Reflection:(Offline Pig Salon,March 22,2024)現現在在能能交交易易的的確確定定性性是是什什么么？What is the certainty of trading now?現現在在交交易易什什么么阻阻力力最最小??？What has the minimum resistance in trading now?數據來源：農財寶典Source:農財寶典生生豬

243、豬市市場場觀觀點點及及操操作作建建議議Viewpoints on the pig market and operational suggestions生豬期貨賣出套期套保策略建議Suggestions on Pig Futures Selling Hedging Strategies凍品企業運用生豬期貨進行套期保值策略建議Suggestions on Hedging Strategies by Pig Futures for Enterprises of Frozen Products一帶一路國際生豬產業大會2 20 02 24 4年年往往期期套套保保方方案案回回顧顧Review of pre

244、vious hedging plans in 2024數據來源：博易大師Data source:Boyi Master Futures so一帶一路國際生豬產業大會數據來源：WINDData source:WIND生生豬豬期期貨貨合合約約強強弱弱分分析析Analysis of the strength of pig futures contracts0 01 1合合約約：多多空空不不定定。根據春節假期時間判定是節前合約還是節后合約，節前合約偏強，節后合約偏弱。產產能能去去化化節節奏奏 The pace of capacity reduction01 Contract:The duration

245、is uncertain.Determine whether it is a pre holiday contract or a post holiday contract based on the duration of the Chinese New Year holiday.The pre holiday contract is relatively strong,while the post holiday contract is relatively weak.0 03 3合合約約：空空頭頭合合約約。節后合約供強需弱。供給恢復正常，需求高位斷檔，生豬增肥效應顯現，豬價大幅下跌，多現年

246、內低點。產產能能去去化化節節奏奏 The pace of capacity reduction03 Contract:Short Contract.Strong supply and weak demand in post holiday contracts.Supply has returned to normal,demand has stagnated at high levels,and the fattening effect of live pigs has become apparent.Pig prices have dropped significantly,mostly t

247、o the lowest point of the year.0 05 5合合約約：空空轉轉多多。供大于求轉向供需平衡，豬價底部企穩。階階段段性性供供給給減減少少 Periodic supply reduction05 Contract：Short to long。Supply exceeds demand and shifts towards supply-demand balance,stabilizing the bottom of pig prices.0 07 7合合約約：多多頭頭合合約約。供需均衡轉向供需偏緊。冬季疫病對應年中供應減少；高溫高濕環境養殖端提前降均重（降低養殖密度可以

248、有效預防夏季疫病、日增重較慢料肉比較高、減少高溫運輸應激等）。主主動動減減重重 Active weight reduction07 Contract：Long contract.The balance between supply and demand has shifted towards tight supply and demand.Winter epidemics correspond to a decrease in mid year supply;In high-temperature and high humidity environments,the average weigh

249、t of the aquaculture end is reduced in advance(reducing the breeding density can effectively prevent summer diseases,slow daily weight gain,high feed to meat ratio,and reduce high-temperature transportation stress).0 09 9合合約約：先先強強后后弱弱。先兌現7-8月現貨漲價預期，隨后天氣轉涼生豬日增重提升，生豬存欄體重增加，再兌現豬價階段回落預期。壓壓欄欄增增重重 Keeping

250、 pigs for more weight gain09 Contract:Strong first and then weak.First,realize the expected increase in spot prices from July to August,followed by a cooler weather and an increase in daily weight gain for live pigs,resulting in an increase in weight on hand.Then,realize the expected decline in pig

251、prices during this phase.1 11 1合合約約：壓壓欄欄合合約約。即將進入季節性消費旺季，肥標價差走擴，養殖端壓欄增重。11 Contract:Contract of keeping pigs for more weight gain.It is about to enter the seasonal consumption peak season,with the price difference of fat and standard pigs expanding,and the weight at the farming end is increasing.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會 張張曉曉君君 1 13 35 5 2 25 55 56 6 5 50 02 26 6 Zhang Xiaojun,phone number:135 2556 5026一帶一路國際生豬產業大會