變革背景下的中國經濟分析.pdf

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1、Anlisis de la Economa china en un contexto de cambioRena MaSenior FAR Analyst Consumer Foods sector RaboresearchA Glance of Chinese EconomySource:IMF World Economic Outlook,RaboResearch Asia-2025Today,Chinas economy is world leadingChinas economy can produce and consume more goods than any other eco

2、nomy2024 GDP comparison,US vs ChinaToday,Chinas economy is world leadingBut consumption still sees ample room to increaseSource:IMF,World Integrated Trade Solutions,World Bank,RaboResearch Asia analysis 2025(2022 data)Chinas economy is unlocking further potentialAgricultural reforms and establishing

3、 manufacturing baseEstablishing a market economy in run up to WTOmembershipGlobal economic integrationEconomic stimulus amid the Global Financial CrisisTransformation and upgrading towards the new normalReform and Opening UpIndustrial Policy PhaseNew growth drivers are necessary:new productive force

4、s and dual circulation.Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,RaboResearch Asia analysis-2025Chinas economy is unlocking further potential6Transformation and upgrading towards the new normalCOVIDSocialism with Chinese Characteristics“Common Prosperity in a moderately wealthy society”Per Capit

5、a Income upGINI coefficient down“The New China Playbook”“Rejuvenate the economy through ones own strength”Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,RaboResearch Asia analysis-2025New growth drivers are necessary:new productive forces and dual circulation.The transition is hampered by the current

6、 downturnChinas consumers reduced appetite to consume triggered the current downturnSource:World Integrated Trade Solutions,World Bank,RaboResearch Asia analysis 2025(2022 data)1.Income growth is slowing down:1990 2016:doubling every 8 years2017 2024:doubling every 15 years Mortgage loans outstandin

7、g:2016-2022:increase 4 trillion RMB/quarter2023:decrease 0.5 trillion RMB/quarterAnnual change in saving deposits:2009-2018:increase 2 trillion RMB/annum2023:decrease 15 trillion RMB/quarter2.(Perceived)wealth declines:3.Insecurity social security is up:And trade war adds more dynamics but this is j

8、ust one more reason for Chinas economy transitionSource:RaboResearch Asia analysis 2025Stimulate consumptionMarket diversificationFiscal monetary Policy flexibilityEnhanced competitivenessReduced reliance on US importsHow to mitigate the impact?18.86%14.67%2.76%Exports contribution to China GDP in 2

9、024US contribution to Chinas exports in 2024Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand plays increasingly important roles in economic growthSource:World Integrated Trade Solutions,World Bank,RaboResearch Asia analysis 2025(2022 data)Government recent policies to stimulate consumption?The Cen

10、tral Economic Work Conference in December 2024 placed boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand at the top of the nine major tasks for 2025.?Government work report issued during the“2025 Two Sessions”held in March,once again prioritizes consumption.This signals that Chinas economy is accele

11、rating its shift from being externally driven to being driven by domestic demand?Nevertheless,when stimulating consumption is critical for short-term growth,it should play a more important role to drive long-term industrial upgrading and transformationThe Two Sessions”annual meeting balanced demand

12、stimulus with national securityGovernment recent policies to stimulate consumptionGovernment spendingScience/Technology+8.3%Military+7.2%Education+6.1%Health&Wellbeing+5.0%Development pathwayShort-term demand stimulationDevelopment alignmentConsumer SentimentDirect stimulusTrade-in Schemes“Two Major

13、s and Two Upgrades”Upgrading consumer electronicsUpgrading Manufacturing EquipmentFrom dumb to smartSupporting property and stock marketsAllow local governments to use proceeds of bond issues to purchase apartments to support property pricesFacilitate share-buy backs to support the stock marketsGove

14、rnment subsidiesIncrease minimum wageIncrease subsidies for medical insuranceRaise basic pensionsSource:RaboResearch Asia-2025China seems to rely on a holistic approachLeverage Chinas size and its disruptive power to establish a new economic paradigm Make the body fitterUpgrade manufacturing platfor

15、mEnrich the domestic market of 1.4 bn peopleDevelop and train the brainApply frontier technologyDevelop frontier technologyUnblock the Circular SystemRestructure the financial systemSource:RaboResearch Asia-2025Chinas potential is still unsurpassed patience and faith required to benefit from itCompa

16、nies must think strategically and long termRecent production expansion collides with slower demand growthChinas will recover slowly but will not collapseBetting on Chinas long term economic success likely to pay off1 Small steps to stimulate demand will not trigger a substantial spending spree Consu

17、mers will likely be more selective in their spending and delay big-ticket items(like cars)Value-for-Money purchases/trading down-discretionary spending on health and leisure less impacted Absorption of overcapacity takes longer Top-line and bottom-line pressure-intensified competition consolidation

18、in the production industries Chinese companies accelerate their globalization Internationalizing the supply chain localizing production multinational partnership constructions32 Chinas market size,growth potential,and geography will drive economic development Companies must transition from the sales

19、 manager attitude to the CRO savviness More sophisticated value propositions business model innovations investment considerationsSource:RaboResearch Asia-2025An Overview of Chinese ConsumersChinese consumers are becoming increasingly sophisticatedTrend 1:Pursuit of multiple layers of values14Source:

20、RaboResearch Asia-2025 Online shopping Discounters Quick-service restaurants Warehouse clubs/membership supermarkets Bulk snack collection stores Pet economy Pop toy/goods economy Premium freshly-made tea/coffee shops(vs.RTD)Michelin/Black Pearl restaurants Imported goods Luxury goods/vacationsSuppl

21、y chain restructuring consolidationConsumer engagementBrand buildingYoung generation and new retirees demonstrate stronger consumption confidenceTrend 2:Increasing self-indulgent demandNote:Tier-1,new tier-1 and tier-2 are referred to as high tier cities and tier-3&below are referred to low tier cit

22、ies in general.Source:CBNData based on 2024 Oct survey,McKinsey,RaboResearch Asia-2025 Self-indulgence:Gen Z in all city tiers and Silver in higher-tier cities demonstrated strong self-indulgence demand.Besides,one-person households,accounting for over a quarter of total households,have strong self-

23、indulgent demand as well.“Lipstick effect”:Gen X and Gen Y demonstrated lower consumption confidence due to pressure from high living cost and likely property mortgage,as well as income uncertainties.However,lipstick effect seems to kick in as they intend to indulge in affordable luxuries.Young gene

24、ration aims to lead a healthy life both physically and mentallyTrend 3:Rising health awareness16Healthy lifestylePhysicallyMentallyFoodFitness/sportsRegimenEmotion mgmt.Spiritual Cultural lifeTech/digital/AI+Healthy ingredientrecipeFood safetySource:iiMedia,CBNData,Survey by Global Seafood Alliance

25、in 2016,RaboResearch Asia-2025Domestic brands have a focus on value-for-moneyTrend 4:Domestic brands regain sharesDomestic brand substitution also happens in food and beverage sectorvsvsvsSource:iiMedia,RaboResearch Asia-2025Carbonated drinksEnergy drinksCoffee shopsImplied Opportunities for Importe

26、d FruitWhat does changing supply&demand dynamics really mean?Chilean cherry in China today19Chilean cherry in ChinaChanged value proposition,become good fit for self-indulgencyCaters to rising health awarenessCompetition with domestic produceSupplyLuxuryQuality,emotional valueValue propositionCustom

27、er groupLimitedExtendedConsumption situationGiftingSelf-indulgency channel,supply chain,trade policyGood source of vitamin C,calcium,iron,magnesium,and potassium Multiple health benefitsOversupply leads to increased food safety issue and negative publicity of imported Chilean cherriesCompetition fro

28、m domestically produced cherriesReplacement products during the same season such as strawberries and mandarin Brand building:taste,quality and standardizationChannel expansion:penetrating into emerging online channelsDeteriorated image as a“luxury”Source:RaboResearch Asia-2025Exploration in diversif

29、ied consumption situations:e.g.,development of processed food and cross-over with other industriesOpportunitiesChallengesCherry is one of Chinese consumers favourite imported fruitOpportunities of Chilean cherriesCanadaUSDomesticNew ZealandAustraliaChileSource:China Customs,RaboResearch Asia-2025 Ch

30、ina turned into a net importer of fruit since 2018 from a net importer previously Cherry,the second largest imported fruit in terms of sales,is popular among Chinese consumers.Seasonality of cherries from different countries Chilean cherries fit right into the most important festive seasons in China

31、.Chilean cherries remain competitiveOpportunities of Chilean cherriesTasteTransport and preserveMarketingOperationPricingChileanDomesticConsistentVariedEasy given firmness and hardness of the fruitNot easy given the tenderness of fruit skinFestive giftingDaily consumptionHigh standardizationLack of standardizationBecoming more competitive on increased supplyNot necessarily competitiveSource:RaboResearch Asia-2025Thank you for your attention!