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1、October 2022Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportNavigating RecoveryCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportAs we continue to navigate 2022,the darkest period for aerospace companies seems to be behind us.Driven by strong consumer demand,reopening of international borders,waning COVID effects and the teste

2、d efficacy of vaccines,the aerospace industry has reached recovery mode.Although issues such as supply chain disruptions and labor shortages in both aerospace and the broader economy are expected to linger for months to come,a positive outlook for the sector is on the horizon.1Accordingly,aerospace

3、executives are cautiously optimistic about the future.Of those surveyed by Accenture,31%expect their revenue to increase over the next six months.This number increases to 81%when asked about revenue growth in the next 12 months.Industry growth,however,is likely to vary across geographies.Asia Pacifi

4、c aerospace revenues could witness 10%higher levels in 2022 compared with 2019 levels.This would represent a much faster commercial aerospace recovery compared to North America or Europe,which respectively may still be 15%and 23%down versus 2019 levels.Executive summaryCommercial Aerospace Insight R

5、eportOngoing market recoveryOur outlook predicts 2022 global commercial aerospace revenues to grow at 13%,which would still be 20%down on 2019 levels.The outlook remains positive despite subdued 1H22 results from Boeing($10.4B,1%increase YoY)and Airbus(17.5B,-1.6%decline YoY)2along with a strong dol

6、lar muting local currency growth gains for aerospace companies.Increased narrow-body production and deliveries(A320 and 737),as well as resumption of 787 deliveries,are likely to aid market recovery in the coming months.This is also supported by our survey responses,where 94%and 100%of executives pr

7、edict higher deliveries across narrow-body and wide-body,respectively,for 2023.3Airlines robust revivalRevenue Passenger Kilometers(RPKs)are expected to increase by an astounding 98%in 2022,after an impressive 22%increase in 2021.4IATA forecasts a net loss of$10B for airlines in 2022,a remarkable im

8、provement from losses of$42B in 2021,with a return to profitability predicted for 2023.5Despite the steady pace of recovery,full restoration to pre-pandemic passenger levels is 18 months out.Moreover,risk factors such as an oncoming economic slowdown,the Russia-Ukraine war,occurrence of a new COVID

9、variant,or a prolonged zero-COVID policy in China,may present headwinds to anticipated growth.Pandemic and macroeconomic concerns aboundExecutives reported pandemic-induced disruption and worsening economic conditions as their primary concerns over the next six months.6Despite successful vaccination

10、 programs in most countries and additional government support initiatives,aerospace companies remain cautious about the possibility of localized outbreaks or emergence of new variants this fall and winter.Supply chain issues persistAerospace companies continue to grapple with pandemic-related fallou

11、t on supply chains.China represents a particularly problematic link,with its zero-COVID policy still in force.Compounding the challenge,the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered further disruptions to supply chains,as aerospace companies are reliant on various raw materials,such as titanium,aluminum,nick

12、el,copper,and steel,which are all sourced in large quantities from Russia.7Only 22%of executives expect disruptions to their supply chain timeliness and quality in the next six months.This is a dynamic metric in todays environment,but marks a significant improvement on our previous report,where exec

13、utive confidence in their supply chains reached all-time lows,with more than half of them lacking confidence in their supply chains timeliness and quality.And despite ongoing difficulties,optimism seems to be returning:almost 90%of executives believe that their supply chains will meet or exceed expe

14、ctations once we get through the next few months.8Aftermarket on stable track to recoveryAfter weathering turbulent conditions in 2020 and 2021,the aftermarket is recovering with MRO providers expected to experience strong growth in 2022.Global commercial aircraft utilization in July 2022 was 26%hig

15、her in comparison to 2021 and only 15%down from 2019.9With markets already in clear recovery mode,optimism is high among executives for the next 12 months.79%expect increased MRO spending from airlines in this timeframe.However,their optimism is tempered by expectations for the next six months,where

16、 only 14%of executives expect higher airline spending and 81%anticipate flat spending levels.10Unleashing potential with digitally enabled talentWhile the COVID pandemic undoubtedly posed the greatest challenge for the aerospace industry in decades,it also lit a fuse for far-reaching change.Our surv

17、ey revealed that a majority of executives(83%)think it is likely or very likely that their organizations will undertake a large-scale organizational or operating model redesign within the next two years,in order to improve performance or capture new opportunities.11For some companies,that transforma

18、tion is already well underway.Rolls-Royce,for example,has embraced a more centralized structure,focusing on agility in decision-making.12 However,change on this scale cannot be made without a critical mass of digitally-enabled talents.To unleash their full potential and achieve new business objectiv

19、es,organizations must have the right mix of digital talent and skills.As of now,it seems that most aerospace companies still have some way to go in achieving this.Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportDespite supply chain challenges and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war,the industry is positioned well for

20、 recovery in 2022.It is expected to recover to pre-pandemic in the 18 month timeframe,driven by the 737 MAXs approval to fly in every country(barring China),uplift of the 787 Dreamliners suspension,and traction around A320s.OEMs are regaining momentum continuing from last year.Overall commercial del

21、iveries have increased by 13%in 1H2214and we expect that for the whole of 2022,delivery increase will be 24%YoY.15Despite rather disappointing half-year results from Airbus and Boeing,2022 is expected to record double-digit growth in global commercial aerospace revenues,growing at 13%YoY(figure 1).G

22、rowth in local currency is on track to meet this.A stronger dollar may mute these local currency growth gains for aerospace companies.Figure 1:global commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)Global outlookWe anticipate 2022 global commercial aerospace revenues to grow 13%YoY,driven by resurgence in t

23、raffic and favorable macro-economic conditions.However,the global industry will still be 20%smaller when compared with 2019.13405060708090100110120ActualForecast20182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportAirline perfor

24、mance568 narrow-body deliveries accounted for the bulk of YTD deliveries,while wide-body YTD deliveries remained muted at 89.21In 2022,narrow-body and wide-body deliveries are expected to grow YoY by 26%and 14%respectively(figure 3).Figure 2:airline industry recovery outlook compared to 2019 levelsA

25、irline financial performance is expected to improve across geographies in 2022,with North America being the only region that is expected to return to profitability this year.18Compared with 2019,the industry is likely to witness a 21%reduction in seats for 2022.While passenger numbers improved in 1H

26、22,they are still anticipated to remain 27%lower in 2022 when compared with 2019 levels(while representing a marked improvement over 2021).19Cost pressures will continue to be in focus.Specifically,oil,fuel,and labor costs have risen sharply,contributing to inflationary conditions and pushing centra

27、l banks to lift interest rates,thereby impacting consumer discretionary spend.20IATA estimates show the airline industry is expected to witness recovery across all regions in 2022,cutting annual global losses to$10B,compared to$42B of losses in 2021.16Industry-wide passenger load factor reached 82%i

28、n June 2022,up 13 percentage points YoY;this was the first time since January 2020 that industry load factors crossed 80%.Industry capacity increased alongside passenger traffic,with Available Seat Kilometers(ASKs)growing 49%YoY,though capacity remains 28%lower when compared with 2019 levels.Easing

29、of government restrictions,rising disposable incomes,and pent-up demand contributed to steady recovery and a strong summer travel season;however,inflation and higher interest rates might offset demand in the short-term.17Our survey revealed that 72%of executives expect airline revenues to take betwe

30、en 12 to 24 months to recover to 2019 levels,whereas 22%expect a recovery period to 2019 levels in the next 12 months(figure 2).0-12 Months12-24 Months24-36 Months36 MonthsWide-body Narrow-bodyAs we look toward the second half of 2022,airlines will likely continue to recover and reduce their ongoing

31、 losses,while still confronting broadly the same concerns as today.Incumbents will continue to balance growth aspirations with cautious cash flow management,especially in the wake of varied macro headwinds.There will,however,remain a significant portion of the global airline fleet which will need re

32、placement in the next five years.Figure 3:historic and expected deliveries by year(Boeing and Airbus)18001600140012001000800600400200020182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportFigure 4:risk factors for commercial aero

33、space:concern for executives(greater/same/less)Next 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 2 yearsGlobal pandemicGreaterGreaterSameTerrorismLessLessLessPolitical instabilitySameSameSameWorsening economic conditionsGreaterSameSameRegional armedconflictsLessLessLess Interest ratechangesSameSameSameExchange ratech

34、angesSameSameSameWhat keeps aerospace executives up at night?Uncertainty due to the pandemic and worsening economic conditions remain the top short-term concerns for aerospace executives.The IMF 2022 World Economic Outlook update predicts subdued macro-economic growth through 2022.This is attributed

35、 to key factors including tighter financial conditions in the US and Europe due to higher than expected inflation,worse than anticipated slowdown in China,persistent COVID outbreaks,supply chain shocks worldwide,and other negative spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine war.22Executives expect pandemic-d

36、riven disruption and worsening economic conditions to be of greater concern over the next six months,while in the next 12 months,only the pandemic is considered as a factor of greater concern.This fear can be attributed to the havoc that COVID initially inflicted on the aerospace industry,along with

37、 the lingering possibility of another wave of disruption driven by a new variant of the virus.Surprisingly,despite the Russia-Ukraine war,executives do not view regional armed conflicts or terrorism to be a greater cause for concern over the next two years.On the contrary,they expect the outlook for

38、 political instability,interest rate changes,and exchange rate changes to remain the same over the next 24 months(figure 4).Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportDespite subdued half-year revenue results,OEMs recorded improved operating margins,demonstrating steady recovery of profitability.For aircraf

39、t OEMs,overall outlook for 2022 appears to be pointing toward steady recovery.Boeing has been buoyed by the resumption of 787 deliveries,as well as increased production of 737 airplanes following their safe return to service.For Airbus,its A320 program has ramped up and is progressing toward a produ

40、ction rate of 75 aircraft per month by 2025(and 65 per month by 2024).23This outlook has also been reflected in our survey,with 94%of executives anticipating the deliveries of commercial aerospace products to be higher in 2023,compared with 2022.24Boeings operating margin for its commercial airplane

41、s business improved to-3.9%in the second quarter of 2022,versus-7.8%in the same period of 2021.25Airbus operating margin improved to 14.4%in the second quarter of 2022,up from 13.5%in the same period of 2021.26Overall,August YTD net new orders were highly positive,with Boeing and Airbus reporting 33

42、8 and 637 net orders,respectively.2781%of surveyed executives expect their revenues to increase over the next 12 months,while all of them expect revenues to increase over the next 24 months(figure 5).Business-cycle stanceFigure 5:business-cycle stance(commercial aerospace revenues)outlook7Next 6 mon

43、thsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncreaseCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportIn the second half of 2022,94%of executives expect commercial aerospace product deliveries to remain the same or increase,compared with the same period in 2021(figure 6).In 2022,commercial aircraft deliveries f

44、or Boeing and Airbus are expected to be 1,176,compared to 951 deliveries in 2021,723 in 2020,and 1,243 in 2019.Boeing delivered 277 aircraft in the first eight months of 2022,and Airbus delivered 380 aircraft during the same period,with their combined deliveries increasing 11%YoY.The growth in deliv

45、eries was entirely by Boeing,which reported a substantial increase of 35%YoY,whereas Airbus deliveries declined slightly by 1%YoY.28Customer deliveriesFigure 6:commercial aerospace products delivery outlookFrom our survey,88%and 92%executives expect narrow-body and wide-body deliveries respectively

46、to be at the same or higher levels in the second half of 2022 versus the second half 2021.Outlook for 2023 is even more bullish with executives unanimously predicting higher wide-body deliveries and 94%anticipating higher narrow-body delivery levels(figures 7 and 8).With air traffic recovery well un

47、derway,a number of airlines(including Delta,China Eastern,EasyJet,Qatar Airways,and Air France-KLM)have already signed deals for new aircraft in recent months,with a view to expand and renew their fleets in the coming years.This ordering spree doesnt look to be over either,for example,with United Ai

48、rlines expected to order 100 wide-body aircraft to replace its aging 767 and 777 fleets with more advanced 787 and A350 aircraft.29Figure 8:wide-body aircraft delivery outlook(unit deliveries shipped to customers)2H22 vs 2H212023 vs 2022DecreaseMaintainIncreaseFigure 7:narrow-body aircraft delivery

49、outlook(unit deliveries shipped to customers)2H22 vs 2H212023 vs 2022DecreaseMaintainIncrease2H22 vs 2H212023 vs 2022DecreaseMaintainIncreaseCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportMRO recovery is expected to stay steady through 2022,attributed primarily to increased commercial volumes.Over 80%of executi

50、ves expect MRO spend to remain stable in the next six months.This expectation becomes significantly more positive in the next 12 to 24 months,where 80%anticipate higher MRO spend(figure 9).Rising levels of in-service aircraft and higher aircraft utilization are driving MRO activity.The number of par

51、ked aircraft(11%of in-service fleet for July 2022)continues to fall as planes are put back into service.Commercial aircraft utilization in narrow-body and turboprop fleets has reached 90%of July 2019 as a benchmark.Wide-body and regional jet fleets are lagging,however,with utilization at 70%to 80%.3

52、0Even with the ongoing recovery,the global aftermarket is still expected to be down 15%to 25%on pre-pandemic levels.AftermarketFigure 9:maintenance,repair and overhaul(MRO)activity outlookMeanwhile,the MRO digitalization trend is gaining momentum.Implementation of technologies such as automated dama

53、ge recognition,robotics,predictive maintenance,electronic flight bags,and electronic technical logbooks are becoming increasingly prevalent.31The focus is not only on greater utilization of available data,but also on exploring relatively new technologies such as blockchain.32MRO providers see that g

54、oing digital can make their operations more efficient,and can also alleviate skilled labor shortages,which are becoming an increasingly acute issue.MRO providers are replacing core processes with digital ones.GE Aerospace utilizes robotics and automation to drive efficiency and address labor shortag

55、es.90%of CFM56 airfoil inspections at GEs site in Singapore are now performed using an AI-powered robotic system.33Next 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncreaseCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportSecond quarter results revealed uneven recovery among aerospace companies,with produc

56、tion outlook pressured by supply chain issues.34Even though OEMs have increased production as air travel recovers,earlier production cuts affected suppliers cash flows significantly.Regardless of these difficulties,we observe signs that suppliers are becoming more optimistic in their outlook.Despite

57、 ongoing supply chain disruptions,Airbus has been aggressive with its recovery plans.It aims to increase production of narrow-body programs to 75 units per month by 2025 but was forced to delay 65-units plans from mid-2023 to early 2024 due to supply chain issues.Boeing,on the other hand,aims to inc

58、rease production of its 737 model to 38 per month in the first half of 2023 despite problems with engines supply.35These plans have significantly influenced production capacity outlook.In the near-term,production capacity looks to be broadly stable.64%of executives expect their capacity to remain th

59、e same in the next six months,while 33%already predict an increase.Expectations grow even more optimistic when looking at the next 12 to 24 months,when a respective 72%and 97%of executives expect production capacity to increase(figure 10).Production OutlookFigure 10:production capacity outlook 10Cop

60、yright 2022 Accenture.All rights reserved.Next 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncreaseCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportWhile supplier deliveries have improved,supply chain disruptions persist,driven by the Russia-Ukraine war,Chinas zero-COVID policy,and localized pandemic-indu

61、ced closures.Supply chains will ultimately meet OEM expectations as they adjust to changes in demand,which is getting stronger.Nevertheless,OEMs and Tier 1s have difficulties with sourcing various elements,from engine castings to microelectronics,and usually there is more than one root cause of dela

62、ys.36According to Airbus CEO,Guillaume Faury,the supply chain crisis will not be resolved in the coming months,but will last until 2023.37A similar opinion is expressed by Boeing CEO,Dave Calhoun,who is vocal that supply chain issues are hindering 737 MAX production and expects such disruption to la

63、st well into the next 18 months.38Short-term confidence in supply chains has improved in comparison to prior surveys,only 22%of executives report reduced confidence in their supply chain timeliness and quality over the next six months.Optimism is continuing to rise,but the next few months will be a

64、challenge for all.88%of executives expressed confidence about suppliers meeting or exceeding delivery expectations next year,with 100%expressing positive sentiment for suppliers to meet or exceed expectations in the 24 monthhorizon(figure 11).Supplier delivery outlookAlthough Tier 1 suppliers are se

65、eing growing demand from OEMs,they experience difficulties in meeting this expectation and are taking actions to reduce problems.For example,Rolls-Royce is focusing on consolidating its supplying companies by making direct acquisitions of best performers.39A similar approach to tackling supply chain

66、 issues can be observed in France,where industry consolidation seems to be progressing.For example,precision engineering company Mecachrome has recently completed a takeover of smaller aerospace supplier WeAre Group,creating one of the largest aerospace parts manufacturers in Europe.40Next 6 monthsN

67、ext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsNot MeetMeetExceedFigure 11:supplier delivery outlookCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportInflation is negatively impacting costs across the board.Executives are evenly split between anticipating raw material cost increases and a stable cost outlook over the next six months.

68、Longer term,92%and 86%of executives predict raw material costs to increase over the next 12 and 24-month periods respectively(figure 12).Aerospace companies are taking measures to deal with raw materials shortages and rising costs.For instance,problems with sourcing titanium following the Russia-Ukr

69、aine war have led the industry to search for innovative ways to reduce reliance on this metal.One example is the Metallic Advanced Materials for Aeronautics(MAMA)program led by the IRT Saint-Exupery Research and Technology Institute in Toulouse,which aims to reduce the need for titanium parts on Air

70、bus aircraft by 30%.41Production input cost outlookFigure 12:raw materials cost outlookNext 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncreaseSimilar to the raw materials outlook,executives are split evenly between cost increase and stable cost outlook for subsystems and parts over a 6-mon

71、th period.This position changes drastically in the longer term,as almost 90%of executives predict cost increases over the next one to two years(figure 13).Figure 13:subsystem or parts cost outlookNext 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncrease60%of executives expect production labo

72、r-related costs to be stable in the short term.Similar to other cost areas,almost 90%expect labor-related costs to rise during the next one to two years(figure 14).Increasing labor costs are being felt in all parts of the market as aerospace companies need to compete over skilled employees with othe

73、r parts of the economy.Such an imbalance puts huge pressure on wages and all aerospace companies are experiencing an acute workforce shortage.As Kailash Krishnaswamy,Senior Vice President of Aftermarket Services at Spirit AeroSystems points out,there is a general labor shortage and the only way to g

74、et labor back to work is higher rates.”42Figure 14:production labor cost outlookNext 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsDecreaseMaintainIncreaseCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportExecutives also confirmed that the depth of digital talent varies dramatically across functions.For example,while 72%of

75、executives are highly confident in their digital engineering talent mix,only 8%report the same for their supply chain management function(figure 16).This gap is reflected in increased focus on developing and procuring digital talent outside of the engineering domain,such as Pratt&Whitney announcing

76、their intent to hire hundreds of new analysts focused on digital supply chain capabilities.44As operating models shift,so too do ways of working and required skills.In particular,pivoting to a more responsive and reliable business necessitates increased digital capabilities and competencies.Executiv

77、es are aware that limited access to talent with digital skills negatively impacts their ability to fulfill customer obligations.89%acknowledged this was an issue in the past year,while 58%anticipate that they will continue to face this obstacle over the next 12 to 36 months.43Aerospace companies see

78、m fully aware that attracting digitally enabled talent is a key pre-requisite to expand in the future,digitally-driven market.For example,Airbus plans to hire 6,000 people focused mainly in the areas of digital transformation,cyber technology and decarbonization.Meanwhile,Boeing plans to create a re

79、search and technology hub aimed at focusing R&D and talent development in areas supporting digital innovation.46To build and retain this talent,executives indicated that they are relying on the fundamentals:compensation,learning opportunities and work-life flexibility are their top three areas of fo

80、cus for talent acquisition and retention.47Aerospace talent challenge89%of executives report that a lack of digital talent negatively impacted their ability to meet customer obligations last year.As executives work tirelessly to ramp up production rates while mitigating a myriad of challenges such a

81、s supply chain delivery misses,there is growing awareness that long-term strategic objectives can no longer be sacrificed.In many cases,this means redesigning how organizations operate.83%of the executives we surveyed believe it is likely or very likely that they will redesign their company in the n

82、ext 24 months to better capture market opportunities and drive performance(figure 15).To build organizations of the future that can deliver on the agility imperative and better position themselves for emerging growth areas,aerospace companies require new ways of organizing,new operating models,and d

83、ifferent skills within those structures.Figure 15:likelihood to undertake a large-scale organizational or operating model redesign to capture emerging opportunities and/or to improve performanceNext 6 monthsNext 12 monthsNext 24 monthsNot LikelyPossibleLikelyVery LikelyFigure 16:confidence in the mi

84、x of digital talent and skills required to achieve functional objectives across different functions0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%EngineeringManufacturingIn-service/MROSupply Chain72%28%17%8%72%28%17%8%Commercial Aerospace Insight Report14Copyright 2022 Accenture.All rights reserved.Commercial Aerospace

85、Insight ReportRegional outlooksCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportNorth America:Boosted by 737 MAX deliveriesFigure 17:outlook for North America Rising2H22 vs.2H212022 vs.20212022 vs.20191H23 vs.1H22RisingLowerRisingFigure 18:North America commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)Boeing delivered 216

86、 aircraft in 1H22,a 38%increase over 2021 and a promising indication that the North American market is getting back to growth.48At the recent Farnborough Air Show,Boeing secured over 200 orders or commitments.49Delta Air Lines placed an order for 100 Boeing 737-10s,the largest 737 MAX variant,with o

87、ptions for 30 additional jets.Overall,the 737 production rate increased to 31 airplanes per month during the second quarter.50 With 2022 growth anticipated to increase 16%YoY versus last years low base,commercial aerospace is still 15%lower compared to 2019 and 22%lower compared to 2018 levels(figur

88、e 18).While Boeing anticipates abnormal 787 related costs of around$2B,it finally resumed 787 deliveries after 16 months of suspension,with delivery to American Airlines.51787 production is likely to increase from its current rate of approximately 2 aircraft per month to 5 aircraft over time.However

89、,Boeings delivery backlog of 120 787s is likely to face scrutiny from the FAA over airworthiness certificates.Boeing also announced a revised outlook for the 777X,with delivery pushed back from 2023 to 2025 due to certification compliance requirements.52Demand is expected to remain strong on the fre

90、ighter side,driven by growth in e-commerce and logistics;however,supply continues to be an area of concern because of ongoing disruptions.53405060708090100110120ActualForecast20182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Commercial Aerospace Insight Report

91、Europe:Airbus deliveries slow downFigure 19:outlook for EuropeRising2H22 vs.2H212022 vs.20212022 vs.20191H23 vs.1H22RisingLowerRisingFigure 20:Europe commercial aerospace index,(USD,2018=100)At the end of August 2022,Airbus overall net order book stood at 637 aircraft and 380 deliveries.It means tha

92、t the company leads comfortably over Boeing for both orders and deliveries.At the same time,Airbus overall commercial revenues decreased 1.6%YoY in the first half of 2022.54Airbus expects to further boost its A320 production rate,which is anticipated to increase to 75 per month by 2025.The company w

93、as forced to downsize production plans to 65 aircraft per month from mid-2023 to early 2024,mainly due to supply chain issues.55 Although cancellations are still prevalent,they are heavily outpaced by new orders.This trend has been boosted by the recent decision of four Chinese carriers to order 292

94、 A320-family aircraft.56It also seems that wide-body production rates and orders are gaining momentum,albeit slowly.Production of A330 and A350 models should increase to three and six aircraft per month respectively in the coming months.57Several air carriers in Europe recently ordered wide-body air

95、craft from both Boeing(Lufthansa)and Airbus(Air France,ITA),while some are in front of this decision(IAG).With 12%YoY recovery anticipated in 2022,European commercial aerospace revenues will be 23%lower than 2019(figures 19 and 20).A long period of recovery is still ahead for Europe to reach pre-pan

96、demic levels.Moreover,an economic slowdown might have an adverse impact on European air traffic recovery,which risks cutting demand from airlines for MRO and aircraft orders.406080100120140160ActualForecast20182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Comm

97、ercial Aerospace Insight ReportAsia Pacific:advancing beyond 2019 levelsFigure 21:outlook for Asia PacificRising2H22 vs.2H212022 vs.20212022 vs.20191H23 vs.1H22RisingHigherRisingFigure 22:Asia Pacific commercial aerospace index(USD,2018=100)In 2022,commercial aerospace revenue for the Asia Pacific r

98、egion is expected to increase 4.5%YoY,driving the market level to be 10%bigger than in 2019(figures 21 and 22).Airbus witnessed record orders in China in 1H22,with four Chinese carriers ordering 292 A320 Neos.58COMAC recently completed test flights of six of its C919 models and edges closer to certi

99、fication.59The company is expected to deliver one aircraft to China Eastern this year.60Border openings across Asia Pacific have aided commercial aerospace recovery with strong orders supporting MRO activities and services.Representative of this trend,ST Engineering recorded strong 1H22 growth in Av

100、iation Asset Management(58%YoY)and MRO(15%YoY).61406080100120140160ActualForecast20182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Commercial Aerospace Insight Report-50.00-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.00ActualForecast-50-40-30-20-100102030Actu

101、alForecast-60-40-200204060ActualForecast-60-40-20020406080ActualForecastAppendixGlobal and regional and commercial aerospace index performance(QoQ percentage change)20182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4GlobalNorth America Europe Asia Pacific 20182

102、019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q420182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q420182019202020212022Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Commercial Aerospace Insight Report

103、About the Accenture Commercial Aerospace Market Insight ReportCommercial Aerospace Insight ReportRegional forecasts are in the highest-impact regional currency,with the global index aggregated in US dollars.The index baseline year is 2018,and both regional and global indices are based on this year.T

104、o complement the econometric modeling,we polled executives at major commercial aerospace companies to gain their insights into future supply and demand outlook.The outlook indicators in this report are based on a combination of Accentures econometric modeling and a global commercial aerospace execut

105、ive poll.We conducted our poll in August 2022 and views are subject to considerable change as conditions can rapidly evolve.SupplyDemandExecutive PollProduction OutlookProduction InputsExecutive PollBusiness Cycle StanceAircraft OperationsForecastingEconometricValueModelingCombining sophisticated ec

106、onometric modeling methodologies to drive quantitative quarterly forecasts on the health of the commercial aviation market,with insights from leading aerospace executives worldwide,the Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Report provides a unique perspective on short-and medium-term trends and dri

107、vers in this market,covering a wide range of activities,from suppliers to MROs.Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportContributors AuthorsJohn SchmidtAerospace and Defense Global Industry Lead David WalfischPrincipal DirectorKamil MazurekManagerJulio Juan PrietoAerospace and Defense Europe Industry LSan

108、kar SubramaniamAssociate ManagerJeffrey WhelessPrincipal DirectorShubham ShuklaResearch Senior AnalystStephen StrangeManaging DirectorAmy BahraniSenior ManagerWilliam CarberrySenior ManagerVisit us at Aerospace Insight ReportAbout AccentureAccenture is a global professional services company with lea

109、ding capabilities in digital,cloud and security.Combining unmatched experience and specialized skills across more than 40 industries,we offer Strategy and Consulting,Technology and Operations services and Accenture Song all powered by the worlds largest network of Advanced Technology and Intelligent

110、 Operations centers.Our 721,000 people deliver on the promise of technology and human ingenuity every day,serving clients in more than 120 countries.We embrace the power of change to create value and shared success for our clients,people,shareholders,partners,and communities.Visit us at .About Accen

111、ture ResearchAccenture Research shapes trends and creates data-driven insights about the most pressing issues global organizations face.Combining the power of innovative research techniques with a deep understanding of our clients industries,our team of 300 researchers and analysts spans 20 countrie

112、s and publishes hundreds of reports,articles and points of view every year.Our thought-provoking researchsupported by proprietary data and partnerships with leading organizations such as MIT and Harvardguides our innovations and allows us to transform theories and fresh ideas into real-world solutio

113、ns for our clients.Visit us at 2022 Accenture Accenture and its logo are registered trademarks of Accenture.21Copyright 2022 Accenture.All rights reserved.Commercial Aerospace Insight ReportThe views and opinions expressed in this document are meant to stimulate thought and discussion.As each busine

114、ss has unique requirements and objectives,these ideas should not be viewed as professional advice with respect to your business.This content is provided for general information purposes and is not intended to be used in place of consultation with our professional advisors.Commercial Aerospace Insigh

115、t Report1.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 20222.Boeing First Quarter 2022 report,Boeing Second Quarter 2022 report,Airbus H1 results 20223.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 20224.Global Outlook for Air Transport Times of Turbulence,IATA,June 20225.Travel Recov

116、ery Rebuilding Airline Profitability-Resilient Industry Cuts Losses to$9.7 billion,June 20226.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 20227.RussiaUkraine Crisis Disrupts European Aerospace Supply Chains,May 20228.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 20229.AWIN Market Ana

117、lysis,Commercial Aviation,Utilization,August 202210.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 202211.Ibid12.Rolls-Royce Holding Plc Civil Aerospace Investor Day,May 202213.Aerospace Market Global Briefing 2022,The Business Research Company(May 2022)14.Airbus orders and deliveries,Boeing o

118、rders and deliveries15.Accenture analysis16.Travel Recovery Rebuilding Airline Profitability-Resilient Industry Cuts Losses to$9.7 billion,IATA June 202217.Air Passenger Market Analysis,IATA,June 202218.Travel Recovery Rebuilding Airline Profitability-Resilient Industry Cuts Losses to$9.7 billion,IA

119、TA19.Effects of Novel Coronavirus(COVID-19)on Civil Aviation:Economic Impact Analysis,ICAO20.Global Outlook for Air Transport Times of Turbulence,IATA,June 202221.Airbus orders and deliveries,Boeing orders and deliveries22.World Economic Outlook Update,July 202223.Boeing Investor Presentations Q2202

120、2 results,Airbus reports Half-Year(H1)2022 results Press Release24.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 202225.Boeing Investor Presentations Q22022 results26.Airbus First half-year 2022 Financial Report27.Airbus orders and deliveries,Boeing orders and deliveries28.Accenture analysis

121、based on Airbus orders and deliveries,Boeing orders and deliveries29.United Airlines close to new widebody order,airdatanews,August 202230.AWIN Market Analysis,Commercial Aviation,Utilization,August 202231.Airlines Push Forward Digitalization Plans,aviationweek,June 202232.The Progress of Blockchain

122、 in MRO,aviationweek,March 202233.GE Aviation Ramps Up Robotics for MRO,aviationweek,June 202234.H1 Airbus Results 2022,Boeing Second Quarter 2022 report,Accenture analysis35.Boeing wants to increase 737 production but has too few engines,July 202236.Supply Chain Bottlenecks Slowing Aircraft Product

123、ion,aviationweek,August 202237.Airbus chief says supply chain crisis will last until 2023,July 202238.Boeing CEO says supply chain issues are hindering 737 Max production increase,July 202239.Rolls-Royce Sees Supply Chain Issues Lasting Into 2023,aviationweek,August 202240.Aircraft parts makers Meca

124、chrome,WeAre to join forces,August 202241.Western Industry Strives To Curb Dependence On Russian Titanium,aviationweek,June 202242.Soaring costs,weak recovery threaten aircraft maintenance market,February 202243.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 202244.Pratt&Whitney announces new

125、capabilities centre in Bengaluru,itln.in,March 202245.Airbus seeking new talents to prepare the future,A,January 202246.Boeing Makes Northern Virginia its Global Headquarters and Research&Technology Hub,May 202247.Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Survey,August 202248.Boeing Reports Second-Quar

126、ter Results49.Second-Quarter 2022 performance review,Boeing Investor Presentation50.Airbus and Boeing Report July 2022 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries,Forecast International,August 202251.Boeing Reports Second-Quarter Results52.Airbus and Boeing Report July 2022 Commercial Aircraft Orders

127、and Deliveries,Forecast International,August 202253.The Boeing Company Q2 2022 Earnings Call,Alpha street54.Accenture analysis based on Airbus revenue data for 2H2020,2021 and 2H202255.Airbus Updates 2022 Delivery Estimate and Production Rates,July 202256.Airbus awarded new orders in China57.Airbus

128、and Boeing Report,June 2022,Forecasts International58.Airbus and Boeing Report July 2022 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries,Forecast International,August 202259.Chinas homegrown passenger jet is about to take offbut experts doubt it can compete with the Boeing 737,Fortune,July 202260.COMAC C919 Edges Closer To Certification After Test Aircraft Task Completion,Simple Flying,July 202261.ST Engineering,H12022 Results