3. Global Green Hydrogen Developments_SB_V5.pdf

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1、Global Green Hydrogen Development TrendsBrinckmann|18th of October 2023Page 2WHO WE AREINDUSTRY INDUSTRY EXPERTSEXPERTSPOWERFUL POWERFUL DATADATACONNECTING CONNECTING DOTSDOTSSTRONG STRONG NETWORKNETWORKOur team consists of experienced individuals from leading energy consulting firms combined with i

2、ndustry professionals.Our management team alone has a combined 80+years of industry experience.We have a team of data and analytical experts from renewable energy backgrounds.Their research expertise drives our databases and makes us a preferred partner for providing advice and aiding strategic and

3、operational decision-making.Our strong ability to connect the dots in a dynamic and rapidly developing business provides our clients transparency across options and a basis for informed decision-making by providing data,intel,and actionable advice.We work within a well-developed professional network

4、 with a proven track record covering the entire renewable energy infrastructure lifecycle,combined with our knowledge of local markets and years of experience.Page 3STRATEGIC ADVISORYCOMMERCIAL ADVISORYRESEARCHWHAT WE DOMARKET SERVICESTECHNOLOGY&SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICESPROJECT SERVICESTRANSACTIONAL SER

5、VICESWIND POWERONSHORE&OFFSHOREGREEN HYDROGENPage 4SHASHI BARLADirector,Head of ResearchBIOGRAPHY+45 21 65 66 65PAST EXPERIENCESCORE SKILLSAnalysis and IntelligenceShashi has over 14 years of experience in the global wind energy industry,with strong expertise and knowledge spanning the value chain s

6、pectrum.He is a well-recognised wind industry thought leader,a renowned speaker,panellist and chairman at leading wind conferences globally.He is often quoted by leading media outlets like Financial Times,New York Times,Economic Times,China South Daily,Bloomberg,Recharge and Wind Power Monthly,among

7、 many others.As Head of Research at Brinckmann,Shashis role is to build and scale up the research practice for mainstream and emerging renewable technologies like Wind onshore and offshore,Solar PV and Power to X.In addition,the practice provides data,analysis,intelligence,and strategic recommendati

8、ons to clients across the value chain spectrum.Prior to joining the Brinckmann Group,Shashi was the Global Head of Wind Supply Chain and Technology Research Practice at Wood Mackenzie,where he annually authored five of the top ten wind research publications for five years.Before joining Wood Mackenz

9、ie,Shashi spent over six years at LM Wind Power,Denmark,where he was a global key account manager and worked in various roles,primarily in the global market intelligence and strategy function.He was instrumental in GEs acquisition of LM Wind Power for EUR 1.5bn in 2016 from a market intelligence and

10、 strategy standpoint.Shashi holds a Masters in Business Administration,Global Opportunities and Threat Analysis from the London School of Economics.He also holds a Bachelor of Engineering in Electrical and Electronics from Anna University,India.Global Head-Wind Supply Chain&Technology Research Wood

11、Mackenzie(2017 2022)Manager-Intelligence and Strategy LM Wind Power(2010 2017)Analyst GlobalData plc(2009 2010)ForecastingThought LeadershipStrategy and ExecutionConference SpeakerBusiness DevelopmentPage 5Global Green Hydrogen Elecyrolyzer capacity to grow by more than 100folds Cumulative Cumulativ

12、e E Electrolyser lectrolyser Installed CInstalled Capacity for apacity for G Green reen H Hydrogen ydrogen P Productionroduction(2023 to 2033)(2023 to 2033)The cumulative global green hydrogen capacity by 2033 is expected to reach 16162 2 GW GW in the baseline scenario.Depending on regulatory framew

13、orks,the capacity could reach 3 33333 GW GW in the bull case if effective and efficient policies are adopted.If the adoption of regulatory frameworks is delayed,it will lead to a postponement of the project timeline,offtake markets,and technology scaling.This delay will result in a bear scenario whe

14、re the global capacity reaches 52 GW52 GW.The top five countries in the baseline scenario China(37 GW),Australia(31 GW),Chile(16.5 GW),Canada(10.6 GW),and the US(10.1 GW),make up 65%65%of the expected global green hydrogen capacity by 2033.Key TakeawaysSource:BrinckmannNote:The different scenarios a

15、re based on project-level information and extracted from Brinckmanns databases.Additional capacity was added in China based on announced targets from developersDisclaimer:02040608010012014016018020022024026028030032034020232024202520262027202820292030203120322033GWThe database tracks more than 500 G

16、W 500 GW of global green hydrogen projects across more than 800 800 unique unique projects.The database covers green H2 projects from project announcement to commissioning in 72 countries 72 countries and covers a wide range of valuable information from upstream energy sources and estimated capacity

17、 to electrolyser technology and developers.Brinckmanns Green Hydrogen DatabaseBullBaselineBearPage 6Solar energy is becoming more appealing than Wind due to its cost efficiency,technological advancements,and ease of installation.The declining costs and government incentives make solar a financially

18、attractive option.Its lower maintenance,urban usability,and lesser environmental impact further increase attractiveness.Unlike Wind turbines,solar panels require less space,encounter less public opposition,and offer more predictable energy production,making solar a more versatile and accepted renewa

19、ble energy solution globally.The price of solar panels has plummeted over the years due to technological advancements and mass production,making solar energy more affordable.Furthermore,innovations have led to more efficient solar panels that can generate more electricity per unit area,increasing th

20、e appeal of solar energy.Solar panels are relatively easy and quick to install on rooftops or ground mounts,requiring less complex engineering than Wind turbines.Solar PV systems can be easily integrated with battery storage solutions,allowing for more reliable energy supply even during non-sunny ho

21、urs.Key TakeawaysGlobal Annual Installed Capacity Solar PV vs.Wind 2010 to 2022Why green hydrogen?:Solar PV and Wind Installations grew significantly in the past decade contributing to 70%of new power capacity Sources:International Renewable Energy Association,GWEC,WindEurope,ACP,and Brinckmann15050

22、01002002019GW201020112012201320142015201620172018202020212022Solar PVWindPage 7Green Hydrogen Production CostsGlobal Wind Annual Installae apacity 2003 to 2033Why GH2:The average annual wind installations to more than double in the next decade,prompting cost effective access of upstream electricity

23、for green H2Sources:Brinckmann1008018001201402040200602401602200604GW200326050709103113111214152816171819232224252721303233082029+114%AMER ONAPAC ONEMEA ONAMER OFFEMEA OFFAPAC OFFCapitalElectricityThermal EnergyO&MPage 8APAC to domnate the global markets due to low cost access to RE sourcesGlobal Gr

24、een Hydrogen Electrolyzers Capacity 2023 to 2033Upstream Energy Sources Cumulative 2023 to 2033*Source:BrinckmannNotes:*Unless otherwise stated by developers,projects are assumed to rely on existing grid infrastructureMixOwn AssetPPA/GridAPACEMEAEMEA will drive new green hydrogen installations in th

25、e short term with APAC being the main region from 2028 and onwardsFrom 2023 to 2028,Spain,France,Denmark and The Netherlands will cumulatively install 14.14.4 4 GW GW out of the total 62 GW(23.2%).From 2023 to 2033,Australia(31.1 GW)and China(37.1 GW)accounts for 92%92%of the installed capacity in A

26、PAC.Projects in EMEA and AMER rely more on existing grid infrastructure to supply renewable energy to projects.In contrast,APAC projects mainly operate independently,with direct connections between the upstream energy source and the green hydrogen facility.AMER02468101214161820222420262029GW20232027

27、2025202420282030 2031 2032 2033AMEREMEAAPACPage 9Cumulative installed capacity by country in baseline scenario Cumulative installed capacity by country in baseline scenario China and Australia are expected to be the two primary markets for green H2Cumulative Installed Green Hydrogen Capacity by Coun

28、try Year End 2033In the baseline forecast,the top 10 countries make up 86%86%of the global green H2 production.Out of the 419 projects expected to be commissioned by 2033 in the baseline forecast,111 projects have received funding or the first necessary permits(26%),16 projects have taken FID(Final

29、Investment Decision)(4%),and 77 projects are under construction(18%).Based on the forecast,it is expected that AustraliaAustralia will supply green H2 primarily to the Asian market,while Europe will rely on imports from IndiaIndia,Northern Northern Africa Africa and the Middle East Middle East to me

30、et its ambitious target.To achieve the ambitious green hydrogen targets established by governments,it is crucial to have the necessary regulatory frameworks regulatory frameworks and support support mechanisms mechanisms in place.This would enable developers to enter into offtake agreements,which in

31、crease the likelihood of projects reaching FID and being realised.The development of the H2 market from the baseline to the bull forecast relies on how effectively emerging H2 markets like EgyptEgypt(20 GW),IndiaIndia(17.5 GW),BrazilBrazil(14 GW),and MoroccoMorocco(9.2 GW)can establish the necessary

32、 export infrastructure and efficient regulatory framework.To date,the NEOM project NEOM project in Saudi Arabia is the largest green hydrogen project to reach FID with an electrolyser capacity of 2.2 GW.Key TakeawaysSource:BrinckmannCumulative installed capacity by country in bull scenario Cumulativ

33、e installed capacity by country in bull scenario CountryCountryby by YE YE 20332033China37.1 GWAustralia31.1 GWChile16.5 GWSpain10.8 GWCanada10.6 GWUnited States10.1 GWGermany6.9 GWThe Netherlands6.3 GWDenmark5.8 GWIndia4.6 GWTop 10 H2 producing countriesTop 10 H2 producing countries1 1Page 10Howeve

34、r,bureaucracy delays the green hydrogen targets from being realised.Only a part of the ambitious targets will be realised in the next decadeEurope is the frontrunner in national hydrogen strategiesSpainSpain is making significant strides towards meeting its electrolyser target already by 2028.Furthe

35、rmore,the country is poised to nearly double the initially targeted amount by the year 2030.The advancement of green hydrogen projects in Spain is backed by significant renewable energy resources and a strong industry offtake commitment.DenmarkDenmark and GermanyGermany are making commendable progre

36、ss towards achieving their 2030 targets.However,Denmark currently faces a shortfall of the upper 6 GW target.Both countries have numerous projects in the pipeline that could be realised prior to 2030 if developers receive clear information on support schemes and offtake possibilities.It is unlikely

37、that the EUEU will achieve its target of 100 GW by 2030.Even in the most optimistic forecast,the EU still falls short falls short of its stated target by 53 GW53 GW.To have any chance of meeting its goal,legislative progress needs to be accelerated,which would enable a faster realisation of projects

38、 expected after 2030.ChileChile,FranceFrance,and PortugalPortugal are expected to fall short fall short by approximately 40-50%40-50%of their targets.Moreover,IndiaIndia faces a more substantial shortfall,with a projected deficit of 87%deficit of 87%from its green hydrogen target.35%35%of countries

39、with ambitions for green hydrogen are yet to adopt a national strategy yet to adopt a national strategy that can offer developers the necessary clarity to make FID.Key TakeawaysSource:BrinckmannNotes:1)Estimated based on production target 2)Forecasted cumulative capacity by target year 3)A revised v

40、ersion of the hydrogen strategy is expected shortly which would double their electrolyser capacity target to 10GW by 2030.National StrategyReportGuidelineRoadmapPolicyAction Plan52 countries have an H2 ambitionTargetTargetYearYearBaseline Baseline ForecastForecast2 2Expected year of Expected year of

41、 reaching targetreaching target100 GW203034.2 GWPost 203535 GW120304.6 GWPost 203525 GW203010.1 GWPost 20356.5 GW20303.3 GWPost 20324-6 GW20305.2 GW20305 GW320305.2 GW20304 GW20307.8 GW20282.5 GW20301.1 GWPost 2033Type of green hydrogen strategy and electrolyser targetType of green hydrogen strategy

42、 and electrolyser targetPage 11US hydrogen can leverage the IRA to accelerate growth in the next decadeClean Hydrogen Production&Investment Tax Credits Facility is placed into service as early as 2023 early as 2023 and no later than January 1,2033 no later than January 1,2033.Credit is available for

43、 the first 10 years in service.Emissions rate Emissions rate of hydrogen production of max 4kg of CO2e per kg of hydrogen.4kg of CO2e per kg of hydrogen.All hydrogen needs to be produced in the United States produced in the United States to qualify for PTCs.Domestic Content Bonus CreditsDomestic Con

44、tent Bonus Credits:a max 10%increase to the base and bonus credits is available for ITCs.To qualify,40%(gradually increasing to 55%by 2027)of components used for the clean hydrogen facility must be produced in the United States.a)ConstructionConstruction of the clean hydrogen facility begins within

45、60 days begins within 60 days after the IRS publishes wage and apprenticeships guidance.Or:Or:b)Wage requirements Wage requirements and apprenticeship requirements as set out in the Act are satisfiedare satisfied.Revenues Raised and General RequirementsSources:Brinckmann,U.S.GovernmentRevenues Raise

46、d and General RequirementsLife cycle Greenhouse Gas EmissionsApplicable PTC PercentageApplicable ITC Percentage=2.5 kg of CO2e/kg 20%1.2%=1.5 kg of CO2e/kg 25%1.5%=0.45 kg of CO2e/kg 33.4%2.0%1500 km)DEMAND SIDE(DOWNSTREAM)Demand drivers in decarbonisation contextCountry-specific sector demand to be

47、 expectedPotential for multiple revenue streamsEuropean demand for PtX products driven by strong policy support and regulationsEuropean demand for PtX products driven by strong policy support and regulationsPage 16Sources:Brinckmann3.0002.0001.00002.5005001.5002030#of units2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2

48、027 2028 20292031 2032Tower CapacityGlobal demand in unitsXXL Monopile CapacityTower Capacity for+12MW machinesBlade CapacityNacelle CapacityFoundation CapacityExpecting major bottlenecks across main capital components which will be more pronounced considering additional capacity for Hydrogen demand

49、Other offshore wind-related supply bottlenecks extend towards installation vessels and also ports that require major investments to address current market demandGlobal(excl.China)supply capacity vs demand in the offshore sectorWestern Turbine OEMs New Product Introductions 2017-202230151813138322441

50、0102030202120222020No.of NPIs 201720182019-73%OnshoreOffshoreThe offshore wind supply chain will experience severe bottlenecks and will find it difficult to cope with additional hydrogen demand in the near-mid term3337394217781971813285505010015020020212017No.of NPIs 2019202220182020+321%+96%Chinese

51、 Turbine OEMs New Product Introductions 2017-2022Page 17Sources:Brinckmann,SGRETurbine technology continues to scale as OEMs focus on more standardization.SGRE is OEM working on an integrated solution for hydrogen production7.0 7.0 7.08.09.0 9.09.2 9.210.010.06.87.2 7.27.58.5 8.5 8.59.5 9.5 9.520222

52、0242026202820302032510152025MW6.26.8China Onshore MaxGlobal Excl.CN Onshore MaxChina Offshore MaxGlobal Excl.CN Offshore Max2022202420262028203020323002401800220200260280320Rotor Diameter(m)Global Max Rotor Diameter Trends 2022-2032Global Max MW Rating Trends 2022-2032SGRE concept of an integrated e

53、lectrolyzer for offshore wind turbinesSGRE is looking to integrate electrolyzer technology in their SG14-222 DD turbine platformThe company has a total investment target of EUR 120m and expects to have a full-scale demonstration by 2025/2026Such a concept offers developers a decentralized solution a

54、nd claims to provide opportunities to optimize capex and increase efficiency by eliminating electrical infrastructurePage 18Industrial companies compete fiercely with pure-play companiesOrder Intake Segmentation Order Intake Segmentation for for the the top top SevenSeven E Electrolyser lectrolyser

55、S Suppliers uppliers By Mid 2023By Mid 2023SiemensSiemens is expected to bag a large share of the electrolyser market through its role as a development partner.Still,pure-play electrolyser manufacturers such as NelNel HydrogenHydrogen and Plug Power Plug Power have more capacity under firm orders.On

56、 the other hand,ThyssenkruppThyssenkrupp is anticipated to capitalise on an agreement from December 2021 to supply the electrolyser for the NEOMNEOM project in Saudi Arabia.Among the pure-play electrolyser manufacturers,Nel HydrogenNel Hydrogen and Plug Power Plug Power currently have the largest ma

57、rket share based on the order agreements tracked by Brinckmann.John CockerillJohn Cockerill,through its joint venture with Suzhou Jingli Hydrogen,is well-positioned to leverage the projected growth of green hydrogen in the Chinese Chinese marketmarket.However,they will face competition from LONGiLON

58、Gi,who has been chosen for the Kuqa project by Sinopec and the Daan project by Jidian.The IRAIRA(Inflation Reduction Act)and its section 45V are anticipated to bolster manufacturers order books with production capacities within the US.In the near term,we expect to see a rise in the number of order a

59、greements for CumminsCummins,NelNel,and Plug PowerPlug Power.Key TakeawaysSource:Brinckmann02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000John CockerillNel HydrogenSiemens EnergyThyssenkrupp NuceraPlug PowerAccelera by CumminsHaldor TopsoeGWEstimateMoU/LoIFirmAgreementDevelopment PartnerRealisedPage 19Electrolyze

60、r Manufacturing Capacity Aggressive Scale-Up Plans AnnouncedElectrolyzers Suppliers Manufacturing Capacity Estimates 2020 to 2030Sources:Brinckmann70010402060305080202120302023GW20262020202220242025202720282029+3,574%John CockerilPERICNelADANIPlug PowerSIEMENS EnergyThyssenkruppITM PowerLongiAUYANOh

61、mium InternationalKohodo H2Green Hydrogen SystemsKylin techCumminsClean Power Hydrogen GroupGuofuHeeSunfireSinoHy EnergyMcPhyHydrogen ProSPICSunfly(Shengqing)CPU H2Topsoe HaldorOthersH2e PowerSenerElectric HydrogenQingqing SongsongHystarCawoloSUNGROWPage 20Scenario overview and modelling basisScenar

62、io overview and modelling basisSources:Brinckmann,COWILCOH INDEX:116ELECTRICITY ENERGY ISLAND ELECTRICITY ENERGY ISLAND(PRODUCTION HUB FOR(PRODUCTION HUB FOR ELECTRICITY)ELECTRICITY)OFF WTG(10GW)ELECTROLYSIS(10GW)SHOREOFFSHOREENERGY ISLANDHVDC CableH2 pipelineH2 ENERGY ISLAND H2 ENERGY ISLAND(PRODUC

63、TION HUB FOR(PRODUCTION HUB FOR HYDROGEN)HYDROGEN)OFF WTG(10GW)ELECTROLYSIS(10GW)POWER TRANSMISSION(10GW)1 GW48”SHOREOFFSHORELCOH INDEX:102H2 ENERGY ISLAND H2 ENERGY ISLAND(SYSTEM INTEGRATED H2 HUB)(SYSTEM INTEGRATED H2 HUB)OFF WTG(10GW)ELECTROLYSIS(10GW)48”SHOREOFFSHORELCOH INDEX:100GAS PIPELINEGAS

64、 PIPELINECABLE100102116SYSTEM INTEGRATED H2 HUBPRODUCTION HUB FOR HYDROGENPRODUCTION HUB FOR ELECTRICITY+16%To assess the advantages for hydrogen production on Energy Islands a comparison is made between:a)Hydrogen production on an Energy Island with transport to shore via pipeline without a grid co

65、nnection to shore.b)Hydrogen production on an Energy Island with transport of hydrogen to shore via pipeline with a grid connection to shore.c)Onshore hydrogen production(electrolyser)sourced by an Energy Island(via a behind-the-meter connection,i.e.no system fees).NB:The focus is solely on effects

66、regarding wind turbines,electrolysis and system effects.*)Levelized cost of hydrogenLCoH*resultsAssumptionsAs APAC focuses on off-grid solutions,energy island concepts could offer opportunities to build in scale and leverage on cost positionsCONTACT USCONTACT USDENMARKDENMARKStore Torv 78000 Aarhus CT:+45 43 20 02 90GERMANYGERMANYHohe Bleichen 1220354 HamburgT:+49 4080 8196 SHASHI BARLADirector/Head of Research+45 21 65 66