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1、C R E O U T L O O K 2 0 2 5Resilience&Recovery:The Future of CRE in 2025U.S.Research Report A year ago,economists debated the chances of a mild recession in 2024 and speculated on when the Fed would begin cutting rates many anticipated it would happen early in the year.However,the U.S.economy was no

2、tably resilient throughout 2024.Robust consumer spending,unemployment at around 4%,and gradually decreasing inflation,toward the Feds 2%target,exceeded forecasts.Annual data revisions also revealed stronger-than-expected GDP growth and a higher-than-anticipated savings rate.This economic strength le

3、d the Federal Reserve to delay its first rate cut until September,followed by a modest 25-basis-point cut in November.Despite these positive indicators,public sentiment remained mixed as the cost of goods and services stayed high,one of the factors in Donald Trumps re-election as the 47th president

4、of the United States.While the political uncertainties around the election have been resolved,questions remain about his administrations policy agenda and implementation,likely persisting until he officially takes office and begins enacting his plans.Economic forecasts point to continued growth,supp

5、orted by expansionary fiscal policies.Increased government spending,especially in the defense sector,is expected to boost GDP.The extension of the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and businesses is also projected to play a pivotal role in sustaining this growth,helping to offset potential challenges fr

6、om restrictive immigration policies and higher tariffs.Although these measures may strain the labor supply and raise costs for certain industries,the expected boost from tax cuts should help sustain economic momentum and support consumer and business confidence in the near term.The Feds cautious app

7、roach,marked by subtle shifts in its guidance,highlights a balanced response to electoral and fiscal uncertainties,suggesting that future rate cuts will be gradual,leaving interest rates above pre-pandemic levels.High capital costs and limited bank liquidity keep borrowing rates elevated despite the

8、 Feds efforts,while supply-demand imbalances in private credit markets compound these challenges,increasing borrowing costs.In this environment,businesses and consumers face continued pressures.Higher mortgage rates will reduce housing affordability and slow homebuying.Limited bank liquidity could r

9、estrict credit access for small businesses,stifling growth and innovation.Elevated borrowing costs pressure companies to balance debt servicing and operational spending,complicating strategic financial planning.U.S.Economy2|2025 Commercial Real Estate OutlookTrends to Watch in 2025Inflation to Botto

10、m in 2025:Because the recent slowdown in the core PCE deflator indicates a loss of momentum,inflation may not fully return to the Feds 2%target in 2025.Moreover,economists caution that President-elect Trumps planned immigration restrictions and broad tariff measures could potentially drive prices an

11、d inflation higher through 2026 and 2027,complicating the Feds task of inflation control.Bond Vigilantes on Deck:The potential return of bond vigilantes,who exert pressure on government fiscal policy by selling bonds and driving up yields,could become a significant factor due to rising interest cost

12、s and an increasing budget deficit.In the last major bond vigilante movement in the early 1990s,the 10-year Treasury term premium increased nearly 250 basis points and pushed yields higher.Consumers Keep Spending:Robust household balance sheets,easing inflation,and rising wage growth are expected to

13、 bolster real disposable incomes.This is likely to support strong consumer spending,forecast to average more than 3%growth in 2025,sustaining economic activity.Consumers have maintained spending habits despite recent economic headwinds,fueled by a combination of savings from prior fiscal stimulus me

14、asures,ongoing improvements in job market conditions,and a wealth effect from rising 401k and home values.Sectors like retail,travel,and hospitality are expected to benefit as consumers continue to prioritize both essential and experiential spending.Labor Force to Tighten:With the unemployment rate

15、steady at just over 4%and an aging Baby Boomer workforce edging into retirement,president-elect Trumps proposed immigration curbs could further strain an already tight labor market.Labor-intensive industries like construction and hospitality rely heavily on immigrant workers,and a shrinking labor su

16、pply could heighten worker competition,increase wages,and fuel inflation growth.These dynamics may challenge business operations by raising production costs and delaying new projects,which could potentially slow economic growth.Possible higher consumer prices could complicate policymakers efforts to

17、 balance economic stability and inflation control.Overall,2025 is expected to show continued economic resilience fueled by consumer spending and easing inflation.However,policy-driven headwinds,particularly from immigration and tariffs,could drive up inflation and tighten labor market conditions in

18、the following years.The potential return of bond vigilantes may also constrain large-scale fiscal policy moves,underscoring policymakers need for careful navigation.Projections from Oxford Economics suggest the federal funds rate will remain above 3%post-2026,with the 10-year yield holding above 4%t

19、hroughout this period.Colliers U.S.Research Report|3The real estate sectors significant headwinds in the first two-thirds of the year stemmed from delayed interest-rate cuts and election-related uncertainty,along with persistent inflation and stricter lending standards.However,after two interest-rat

20、e cuts,less political turbulence than expected,and notably more activity in multiple property types in recent months,the outlook for 2025 appears far more optimistic than it did a year ago.According to Placer.ai,office visits are still 34%below pre-pandemic levels.However,return-to-office mandates f

21、rom companies like Amazon and Goldman Sachs have gradually boosted occupancy rates.While net absorption turned positive for the first time in two years during the third quarteralbeit modestlythe office sector hasnt firmly stabilized yet.A surge in development has driven up the national industrial va

22、cancy rate by more than 250 basis points since 2023.Nevertheless,supply and demand are expected to realign before the second half of 2025.For the first time since 2020,retailers are projected to close more stores than they opened in 2024,signaling a more cautious market stance.Yet retail occupancy r

23、ates,excluding malls,have reached a decade-high of 95.6%,demonstrating the sectors resilience and stability.The multifamily sector is well-positioned for 2025,benefiting from a slowdown in new deliveries and the increasing cost of home ownership.However,as in other capital market segments,deal activ

24、ity will be tempered without a significant drop in long-term interest rates.Higher interest rates,rising insurance costs,tighter lending standards,and a constrained labor market are expected to continue in 2025.But improved economic clarity is fueling optimism that the real estate sector can build o

25、n this years momentum and move forward confidently.U.S.CRE Market4|2025 Commercial Real Estate OutlookTrends to Watch in 2025Fed Watch:Few industries are as sensitive to interest-rate fluctuations as real estate.For short-term loans tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate(SOFR),future rate cuts

26、 will align with these benchmarks and move in tandem.However,for longer-term loans often linked to the 10-year Treasury yield the industry will watch each Federal Reserve meeting intently,analyzing every hint of forward guidance and hoping for insights that might signal a compression in the long end

27、 of the yield curve.Alternative Capital Continues to Step Up:In recent years,traditional lenders have employed“extend and pretend”loan strategies to manage portfolios.But rising interest rates,stricter regulatory oversight,and$1.8 trillion in commercial real estate debt set to mature by 2026 will co

28、mpel many to clean up their balance sheets.Private and alternative capital sources are poised to step in to bridge the gap for borrowers seeking to refinance at higher rates.Insurance Challenges Persist:Commercial property insurance costs are projected to rise another 80%by 2030,according to a recen

29、t Deloitte study,a significant challenge for property owners.Insurers are becoming increasingly selective,often imposing stringent requirements,such as banning high-risk activities like using gas grills on balconies,to mitigate their exposure.Landlords must rethink their insurance,shifting to focusi

30、ng on risk management,optimizing coverage,and exploring innovations to control expenses.Acceleration in Tech-Focused Spending:As businesses gain greater economic clarity and confidence in their short and long-term outlooks,many are expected to prioritize technology upgrades over the next few years.K

31、ey advancements such as AI-enabled tools,smart building technologies,enhanced data security,sustainability and energy management systems,robotics and automation,and high-speed connectivity will be at the forefront.Investing in these technologies will give companies a competitive edge,optimize workfo

32、rces,boost operational efficiency,and ultimately drive profitability.Colliers U.S.Research Report|5Trends to Watch in 2025Prices Have Bottomed:The Fed has begun easing rates;however,at the time of publication,the 10-year Treasury hasnt responded in kind with SOFR.Regardless,volume has shown clear si

33、gns of recovery,and many assets trading today are well below replacement costs.With improving or stabilizing fundamentals across asset classes,pricing is expected to rebound from here.CMBS Is Back:CMBS issuance far exceeded predictions for 2024,topping$100 billion for only the second time since 2007

34、.SASB deals were the dominant force in the market,and that doesnt look to change.For cash-flowing assets,CMBS has proved to be a bright spot.Volume should once again top$100 billion in 2025.Loan Extensions Continue:With interest rates not responding as investors had anticipated,loans continue to be

35、extended in hopes of a brighter economic future.An estimated$280 billion in loans were extended from 2023 to 2024,with a similar outcome expected next year.This trend will lead to 2025 having the highest maturitiesat least until the cycle repeats in 2026.Distress Emerges:While distress is making up

36、a larger share of overall investment activity,the increase has been relatively mild.Office is the exception,where nearly 10%of Q3 sales were distress-driven.More deals will come to market in 2025,topping the totals seen so far in this cycle.Capital Markets6|2025 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.Nat

37、ional Capital Markets ForecastVolume:Sales have picked up,though velocity remains constrained.The market is coming off a bottom,and 2025 will prove to be a stronger year,with aggregate volume up 25%-33%from 2024 levels.Pricing:Conflicting data sources paint different pictures of where pricing stands

38、 today.Bid-ask spreads have narrowed,bid sheets are deeper than they have been,and institutional investors are once again active.Relative to 2024,pricing will increase in 2025 across major indices,with industrial leading the charge.Office Pops:Among all asset classes,office will post the most signif

39、icant volume gains in 2025.Generational acquisition opportunities will lure capital back to the asset class,driving the strongest rebound in the coming year.“A combination of factors is setting up 2025 to be a stronger year for investment sales volume.From the denominator effect and fund extensions

40、to the deployment of sidelined capital,the conditions are prime for a more active year ahead.”David AmsterdamPresident,Capital Markets|U.S.Colliers U.S.Research Report|7Trends to Watch in 2025Increased Office Attendance:As the federal government begins rolling out wider return-to-office mandates,pri

41、vate-sector companies will take the opportunity to call workers back to the office full-time on a larger scale.Several high-profile companies also have office mandates starting in the first half of 2025,encouraging others to follow suit.Reduction in Inventory:As the market bifurcates further between

42、 haves and have-nots,more property owners will consider redevelopment the best option for underperforming assets.For many,converting into alternative property types could better align with location and demand.These buildings,often more than 60 years old and with high vacancy rates,are poised for rem

43、oval from the national inventory a shift that could positively impact market fundamentals.While many conversions are already underway or completed,this trend is expected to accelerate as tenant demand increasingly targets top-tier properties.More than 37 million SF of tracked office space is anticip

44、ated for redevelopment,0.6%of the nations inventory.Limited New Construction:New construction starts will be limited to build-to-suits,as tenants show little interest in waiting two years for new space.Current headwinds including tighter lending standards with lower loan proceeds,historically high c

45、onstruction costs,and higher interest rates are likely to persist into 2025.Properties with near-term occupancy are expected to be highly appealing in this market.A broader resurgence in new construction is anticipated once vacancy rates in top-tier properties approach single digits.AI and the Workf

46、orce:Its full impact on the workplace remains to be seen.AI has so far been used to augment work,automate tasks,speed up data analysis,and generally reduce other mundane responsibilities.While large-scale advancements driving more transformative change havent materialized,leaving the broader workfor

47、ce largely unaffected,rapidly advancing innovation is expected to give AI a larger role in the office workplace in the next few years.This shift aligns well with the retirement of the aging Baby Boomer generation and a shortage of younger workers to fill the void.Office8|2025 Commercial Real Estate

48、OutlookU.S.National Office ForecastVacancy:The office vacancy rate hit a record high of 17.7%in 2024 and is projected to rise another 100 basis points,to near 19%by the end of 2025.However,the pace of vacancy growth is expected to slow by 2026 as certain markets begin to recover and the pipeline of

49、new construction diminishes.Lease Rates:While asking rents have risen steadily post-COVID,their rate of growth is expected to remain below 1%with isolated new development.Limited tenant demand for older buildings with fewer amenities is forcing owners to begin dropping rates to draw interest.Demand:

50、Net absorption is anticipated to stay flat over the near term as the nations uneven recovery unfolds.Demand will likely stagnate in the first half of the year as companies cautiously evaluate economic conditions and federal policy shifts under the new administration.Construction:New construction sta

51、rts will remain on hold,hindered by elevated labor and material costs and subdued demand.Development is expected to be quiet through 2025,with project announcements for new starts in 2026.“AI is not just a tool for efficiencyits a transformative force that reshapes how we think,work,and innovate.Ser

52、ving as the modern-day co-pilot,AI enhances our ability to make smarter decisions,explore new opportunities,and navigate complex challenges.At its core,the success of AI lies in how effectively we empower our workforce to harness its potential,ensuring it complements human ingenuity rather than repl

53、acing it.Organizations must invest in reskilling and cultivating a mindset that embraces AI as a partner in progress.”Jodie PoirierPresident,Occupier Services|AmericasColliers U.S.Research Report|9Trends to Watch in 2025Smaller Warehouses,Bigger Opportunities:Warehouse developers will position thems

54、elves for the next development cycle,with a growing number of construction starts expected by late 2025 in markets where supply and demand balance has returned.Although elevated construction costs and uncertainty around regulatory,fiscal,and trade policies could delay some projects,others will move

55、forward,particularly for well-located buildings with smaller footprints.Automation Adoption:Warehouse automation technology is advancing quickly as the need for faster,more efficient supply chain operations grows.Data analytics will play a bigger role in improving warehouse efficiency,such as in pre

56、dicting demand fluctuations and identifying bottlenecks.AI and collaborative robots will increasingly be used,designed to work alongside humans rather than replace jobs.Supply Chain Agility:While supply chain challenges have eased since the pandemics peak,pressures persist,and risks,disruptions,dela

57、ys,and high costs will continue.In 2025,last-mile delivery solutions will be crucial to boosting agility by ensuring more reliable deliveries.More companies will adopt route optimization strategies and crowdsourced delivery networks to improve the last mile and adapt to unexpected delays,making the

58、supply chain more resilient and flexible.Nearshoring&Reshoring to Continue:In the wake of the pandemic,U.S.-China trade tensions,and high inflation,supply chains have been reorganized,leading to a surge in nearshoring to Mexico and reshoring of advanced manufacturing to the United States.Expected to

59、 continue in 2025,these changes will help reduce financial and geopolitical risks.Industrial10|2025 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Industrial ForecastVacancy:Industrial vacancy in the U.S.and most markets is expected to peak by mid-2025 as new supply and tenant demand return to equilibri

60、um,after a period of record construction completions driven by an undersupply of modern industrial space since 2020.In markets where new supply has pushed vacancy rates into the double digits,it will take longer for vacancy to return to historical averages.Lease Rates:After peaking at 20%growth in 2

61、023,industrial rents grew by 9%year-over-year by the third quarter of 2024.While rent growth is expected to continue in 2025,it will slow to more typical levels of 3%to 6%.In certain coastal markets where rents climbed more quickly in recent years,lease rates declined in 2024,and that is expected to

62、 persist,but at a slower rate,into 2025.Demand:After nine consecutive quarters from late 2020 to 2022 when net absorption exceeded 100 million SF per quarter,demand has slowed,averaging 38 million SF per quarter in 2024.A recent increase in leasing activity and lease proposals is expected to boost n

63、et absorption in 2025,but it is unlikely to return to the levels of 2021 and 2022,when demand was exceptional.Construction:After peaking at 711 million SF during the fourth quarter of 2022,total space under construction has dropped by 53%,to 331 million SF.It is expected to fall below 300 million SF

64、 by early 2025,in line with pre-pandemic development.“Balance is expected to return to the U.S.industrial market in 2025,with vacancy rates peaking as new supply and tenant demand reach equilibrium and rent growth stabilizes.While some markets are already ahead of the curve,others will follow suit i

65、n the coming year as the market gears up for its next growth cycle.”Stephanie RodriguezNational Director,Industrial Services|U.S.&Executive Managing Director|FloridaColliers U.S.Research Report|11Trends to Watch in 2025Space Crunch:Elevated construction costs,now 30%40%above pre-pandemic levels,are

66、limiting new retail developments.In 2025,less than 20 million square feet of retail space will be delivered,well below historical averages.Despite strong demand,these cost pressures challenge developers to justify new investments,and instead push retailers to optimize and innovate within existing sp

67、aces.Brick-and-Mortar Momentum:Physical retail is still central to consumer shopping habits,with shopping center occupancy at a decade-high rate of 95.6%.Brick-and-mortar locations are increasingly vital as critical drivers of omnichannel strategies,blending in-store and online shopping.Retailers th

68、at integrate experience and convenience are best positioned to thrive in 2025.Adaptive Solutions:Most consumers are expected to maintain or reduce retail spending compared to the previous year,by a projected 10 basis points by the end of 2025.In response,retailers are investing in automation to meet

69、 customer demand more efficiently and adopting omnichannel solutions to lower service costs.As they also leverage AI and machine learning to create adaptable supply chains that can anticipate disruptions,consumers will be able to shop confidently yet cautiously within their budgets.Prioritization of

70、 Value:Consumers are becoming increasingly selective,driven by financial concerns continuing into 2025.Forty-seven percent feel pessimistic about finances,while record-high credit card debt and soaring interest rates are driving more deliberate spending.With 60%of consumers spending more on grocerie

71、s due to inflation,discretionary spending is expected to decline.To adapt,retailers should highlight savings opportunities and create bundled offerings for cost-conscious shoppers.Retail12|2025 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Retail Forecast Vacancy:Vacancy rates are forecast to remain st

72、eady throughout 2025,demonstrating the markets resilience.Less new retail construction is balancing supply with consistent demand.However,in specific segments,particularly freestanding retail locations,vacancy rates may rise as thousands of pharmacies and discount retailers close,partially offsettin

73、g the lower rates in other retail subtypes.Lease Rates:Market asking rents are projected to rise by approximately 2%in 2025,continuing the momentum from 2024s record-high rents.That reflects the sustained strength of retail real estate,as landlords capitalize on steady demand and limited new constru

74、ction to maintain rental growth even amid broader economic uncertainties.Demand:Demand for retail space is expected to remain strong because of the ongoing need for strategic physical locations.Net absorption may decline slightly but is still likely to stay positive for both malls and shopping cente

75、rs.This dip reflects the reduced number of new retail completions and a potential slowdown in leasing due to market stabilization.Construction:New retail construction is expected to drop sharply,by 45%,with significantly fewer new space deliveries in 2025.Limited new supply will play a critical role

76、 in maintaining stable vacancy rates and sustaining strong demand for existing space.However,the shrinking pipeline also reflects the higher construction costs and economic uncertainties.“In 2025,the retail industry will be defined by adaptability and resilience.With consumers prioritizing value ami

77、dst economic pressures,retailers must double down on blending convenience and experience in brick-and-mortar spaces while leveraging technology like AI to anticipate needs and create seamless omnichannel journeys that empower shoppers to spend wisely.”Anjee SolankiNational Director,Retail Services&P

78、ractice Groups|U.S.Colliers U.S.Research Report|13Trends to Watch in 2025Insurance Costs Continue To Sink Deals:The cost of insurance has been a sticking point for the past couple of years,and that isnt changing.As rates fluctuate,deals are being repriced,and some buyers are walking away from hard d

79、eposits.There are ways to mitigate insurance cost increases through scale,but with 2024s active hurricane season,these expenses will remain front of mind for buyers and sellers alike.Multifamily Remains#1:Multifamily has been the perennial leader in aggregate investment sales activity,and its reign

80、appears to be safe.The asset class is on track to lead the way again in 2025.NOI Erosion:Operational expenses have surged for multifamily properties,and insurance is just one part of the equation.Labor,materials,and utilities are all on the rise.Given the wave of development and decline in occupancy

81、,particularly in Sunbelt markets,NOI has been under pressure.Stabilizing fundamentals will begin to turn the tide in 2025.Interest Rates Matter:The movement of the 10-year Treasury will go a long way to supporting the health of the multifamily market.If rates come down,it will unlock additional capi

82、tal,driving volumes even higher.If they dont,housing will remain prohibitively unattainable for many households,supporting rental demand.This isnt an either/or scenario.Multifamily14|2025 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Multifamily ForecastVacancy:Occupancies have held up remarkably well,

83、given the number of units that have come online.Occupancies will bottom in 2025 and begin to recover as the year ends,heading into 2026.Lease Rates:Once-high-flying boom markets have cooled,with those in the Midwest and Northeast leading the charge on rent growth.These areas have faced less supply-s

84、ide pressure.Rent growth will be stronger across the U.S.in 2025,and some formerly red-hot markets will also see effective gains.This will set the stage for even stronger growth in 2026.Demand:Household formation has been strong,supporting robust absorption in the face of decade-high levels of new d

85、eliveries.With Gen Z out-earning prior generations,high home prices,and expensive mortgages,2025 is poised to continue this trend.Construction:Developers are still wrapping up this cycles projects.With fewer permits being pulled,construction will ease in late 2025 into 2026,setting the stage for str

86、onger rent growth and NOI gains.“Investors have an opportunity to acquire assets well below replacement costs in high-growth markets throughout the Southeast and Southwest.Look for multifamily to once again lead all asset classes in sales volume.”David Goodhue Head of Multifamily Capital Markets|U.S

87、.&Executive Managing Director|Boston Colliers U.S.Research Report|This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only.Colliers International makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information

88、 including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information.Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this docum

89、ent and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s).2024.All rights reserved.Research Steig SeawardSenior Director,National Research|U.S.+1 303 888 Marianne SkorupskiDirector,National Off

90、ice Research|U.S.+1 404 781 Aaron JodkaDirector,National Capital Markets Research|U.S.+1 617 330 Capital MarketsDavid AmsterdamPresident,Capital Markets|U.S.+1 212 716 OfficeMatt GannonHead of Agency Leasing|U.S.&Executive Managing Director|Washington D.C.+1 202 728 Jodie PoirierPresident,Occupier S

91、ervices|Americas+1 213 532 IndustrialStephanie RodriguezNational Director,Industrial Services|U.S.&Executive Managing Director|Florida+1 954 553 RetailAnjee SolankiNational Director,Retail Services&Practice Groups|U.S.+1 415 288 MultifamilyDavid Goodhue Head of Multifamily Capital Markets|U.S.&Executive Managing Director|Boston+1 617 330 Craig HurvitzDirector,National Industrial Research|U.S.+1 847 698 Nicole LarsonManager,National Retail Research|U.S.+1 954 652