貝萊德投資研究所：2020年年中全球展望報告（英文版）（16頁）.pdf

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1、BlackRock Investment Institute FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. The future is running at us 2020 midyear outlook BIIH0620U-1222313-1/16 2 Contents

2、2 The future is running at us. The coronavirus shock is accelerating structural trends in inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. This is fundamentally reshaping the investment landscape and will be key to investor outcomes. Our three new investment themes Activity restart, Polic

3、y revolution and Real resilience are meant to reflect the rapidly changing world. The most important action investors need to take today, in our view, is to review their strategic asset allocation to ensure portfolios are resilient to the supercharged trends. Philipp Hildebrand Vice Chairman BlackRo

4、ck First words Summary Introduction Themes Activity restart Policy revolution Real resilience 2-4 2 3-4 5-7 5 6 7 2020 midyear outlook Summary Jean Boivin Head BlackRock Investment Institute Elga Bartsch Head of Macro Research BlackRock Investment Institute Mike Pyle Global Chief Investment Strategi

5、st BlackRock Investment Institute Scott Thiel Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Forum focus Geopolitics Emerging world Asset allocation Strategic views Tactical views 8-9 8 9 10-15 10-13 14-15 The initial Covid-19 contraction is larger than the great financial crisis, but

6、we believe its cumulative impact on the economy will likely be less as long as the policy response remains strong enough to cushion the blow. Normal business cycle dynamics do not apply, so we are tracking three signposts: how successful economies are at restarting activity while controlling the vir

7、us spread; whether stimulus is still sufficient and reaching households and businesses; and whether any signs of financial vulnerabilities or permanent scarring of productive capacity are emerging. Markets are laser-focused on changes in any of these three “known unknowns,” and a possible second wav

8、e of infections and policy fatigue are major risks in the second half. The shock will have long-term consequences that are starting to play out. Policymakers are funnelling money directly to the (non- financial) private sector, with debt monetization a possibility down the road. The pandemic is rein

9、forcing structural trends such as ecommerce and sustainability; amplifying deglobalization and geopolitical fragmentation; and may deliver a generational shock to the emerging world. Investors grapple with these issues today. This is why our virtual Midyear Outlook Forum focused on structural trends

10、 and why we emphasize three strategic calls. First, central banks have committed to keep rates low, enabling an unprecedented fiscal expansion. Combined with the risk of supply shocks, this raises the potential for higher inflation in the medium term and challenges the role of nominal government bon

11、ds as ballast over a strategic horizon. Second, the pandemic has accelerated a tectonic shift toward sustainability. Third, deglobalization and fragmentation call for a focus on real resilience: diversifying across companies, sectors and countries that are positioned well for these trends. On a tact

12、ical horizon, we are modestly pro-risk, with an overweight in corporate credit. We prefer up-in-quality assets with strong policy backstops. One of our highest- conviction views is an increased overweight to the quality factor. We upgrade European equities to overweight as the most attractive exposu

13、re to a cyclical uptick. We cut U.S. equities to neutral after a stretch of outperformance as we see risks of fading fiscal stimulus and election uncertainty. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUA

14、LIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. BIIH0620U-1222313-2/16 3 3 Activity restart The future is now The focus of the BlackRock Investment Institutes virtual but no-less real Midyear Outlook Forum in early June was decisively on longer-term trends. The Covid-19 shock has pushed the world harde

15、r against four key limits we identified at our November forum: inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. The public health and ensuing economic crisis are exacerbating entrenched forms of inequality across income levels, race and countries. Many emerging markets (EMs) are facing he

16、alth, policy and deglobalization challenges. From an investment perspective, the groups heterogenous nature creates dispersion and opportunities. See page 9. The pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities of global supply chains, and added impetus to geopolitical fragmentation. See page 8. It has led to a

17、 policy revolution that blurs the boundaries between fiscal and monetary action and could address some of the rising inequalities. This is positive for markets in the short run but may be less so in the medium term. See page 6. And it has put a premium on sustainability, corporate responsibility and

18、 resilience of companies, sectors and countries. See pages 7 and 12. Market sentiment has been driven by the pandemics near-term evolution and the policy response, but these structural limits are transforming the investment landscape and will be significant to investment outcomes. The world has chan

19、ged, leading us to a completely new macro framework and major view changes. Our revamped 2020 investment themes reflect this, and now include strategic, or long-term, implications. See the boxes on the right. Our current macro view is captured by the “Activity restart” theme as economies reopen at d

20、ifferent speeds. See page 5. A policy revolution is taking place to cushion the pandemics impact, making this our second theme. See page 6. Our third theme is “Real resilience.” Financial resilience of portfolios such as the diversification of equity risk through government bond allocations will not

21、 be enough to offset the real economic changes that we see in motion, in our view. See page 7. What is needed is a reassessment of the whole portfolio, not just tweaking its edges. This is why we are focused on the big strategic changes investors should consider making now. See pages 10-12. 2020 mid

22、year outlook Introduction Economies are slowly restarting, but at different paces. We are tracking the evolution of the virus and mobility. The longer it takes for activity to restart, the more cracks might appear in the financial system. Strategic implication: We are moderately pro risk, and expres

23、s it in an overweight to credit. Tactical implication: We have closed our underweights in cyclical assets, with a preference for Europe. Policy revolution The policy revolution was needed to cushion the devastating and deflationary impact of the virus shock. In the medium term, however, the blurring

24、 of monetary and fiscal policy could bring about upside inflation risks. Strategic implication: We are underweight nominal government bonds and like inflation-linked bonds. Tactical implication: We like credit, partly on central bank purchases. U.S. stocks are at risk of fading fiscal stimulus. Real

25、 resilience Supercharged structural trends will change the nature of portfolio diversification. Countries and sectors will make a comeback as diversifiers in a more fragmented world, in our view, offering resilience to real economy trends. Strategic implication: We favor sustainable assets, private

26、markets and deliberate country diversification. Tactical implication: We have increased our overweight in the quality factor and prefer assets with policy backstops. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS

27、AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. BIIH0620U-1222313-3/16 4 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 February MarchAprilMayJune Jobless claims (millions) S EM is based on countries in the MSCI Emerging Market index and MSCI Frontier Market index. The pandemic has dealt a generati

28、onal shock to the emerging world. Yet the impact varies greatly across economies. This increases dispersion, and makes country and security selection crucial. New Covid-19 cases in developed and emerging markets, 2020 Sergio Trigo Paz Head of BlackRock Emerging Markets Fixed Income EM investing has

29、never been more compelling given the dispersion and resiliency to shocks of many economies.” 0 25 50 75 100 125 JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune New cases (thousands) n Developed n Emerging ex-China n China BIIH0620U-1222313-9/16 10102020 midyear outlookAsset allocation FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN TH

30、E U.S., CANADA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. Strategic view 1 We cant expect nominal government bonds to provide as much ballast as they have in the past with yields so low. The role of bo

31、nds The traditional approach to building financial resilience in multi-asset portfolios has been to rely on nominal government bonds as a cushion against risk asset sell- offs. One consequence of the policy revolution bond yields tethered by central bank intervention challenges this and forces inves

32、tors to seek out alternatives. We expect negative returns across developed market government bonds on a five-year horizon given low and negative yields today. Also, the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks decreases as yields near perceived lower bounds, compromising bonds ballast role. The

33、underperformance of German and Japanese bonds in recent equity selloffs illustrates this. Both these effects lead us to prefer reduced allocations to government bonds. We show this for an illustrative multi-asset portfolio in the Fading case for nominal bonds chart. If yield curve control were to ca

34、p yields as well as provide a floor for them, returns may be less punitive. This would result in a higher allocation (the third bar) than with a floor alone (the fourth). No one asset can directly replace the ballast role of nominal government bonds, but we believe inflation- linked bonds offer an i

35、ncreasingly attractive alternative. Inflationary pressures could build up once the initial deflationary shock from the sizeable demand shortfall dissipates. Deglobalization, re- regulation and deficits are possible catalysts. And central banks will likely tolerate temporary overshoots above inflatio

36、n targets. Bottom line: Investors need to re- evaluate nominal government bond exposures in an environment of increased deglobalization, lower-for- longer yields and unprecedented policy action. We favor alternatives such as inflation-linked securities. Fading case for nominal bonds Vivek Paul Senio

37、r Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute The cost-benefit calculus of holding nominal government bonds in strategic allocations has changed. Their ballast properties have weakened because of lower-for-longer rates, and the risks are greater due to rising inflation risks. Source: BlackR

38、ock Investment Institute, June 2020. Notes: The chart shows the allocation to nominal U.S. Treasuries in an illustrative multi-assetU.S. dollar portfolio with a conservative risk target of 6%, investing on a 10-year horizon. For the “lower returns after shock” scenario we use our latest capital mark

39、et assumptions as of April 13, 2020. For allocations under the “yield curve control” scenario, we assume the Federal Reserve is explicitly capping yields at 1.5% and providing a floor of 0% for them. For the “lower bound” allocation we assume an effective lower bound of 0% for the Bloomberg Barclays

40、 U.S. government bond index. Illustrative U.S. Treasuries allocations in various scenarios, June 2020 Lower bounds only Yield curve control Lower returns after shock Before Covid-19 shock n U.S. Treasuries n Other BIIH0620U-1222313-10/16 11112020 midyear outlookAsset allocation FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTI

41、ON IN THE U.S., CANADA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. Strategic view 2 The old data sources and existing playbooks are simply not enough to navigate this changing landscape. Diversification

42、 Globalization led to growing cross-border flows and integrated consumer markets, with differences between companies, countries and regions dissipating. Now, the world is becoming more fragmented, with the U.S. and China at opposite poles. We see return dispersion growing across regions as a result.

43、 This creates more diversification potential as in the rapidly decoupling U.S. and Chinese tech industries. Investors will likely need strategic exposure to both markets, as we see two main but separate engines of global growth ahead. State intervention in economies and policy will vary greatly by c

44、ountry. The pandemic is exacerbating inequalities within and across countries, and magnifying protectionist trends. All this questions the usefulness of broad asset classes such as EM, and makes “real resilience” critical, through considered diversification across countries and sectors. Most portfol

45、ios have yet to embrace this new normal, as investors are traditionally focused on using broad asset classes to diversify. Mainstays of portfolio diversification such as U.S. Treasuries may be less effective in this role going forward. By contrast, geopolitical bifurcation and higher inflation could

46、 raise the diversification potential of assets such as Chinese government bonds and inflation protected securities over time. See the Outdated diversification chart. We also see a bigger role for private markets, both for diversification and exposure to real-economy trends. Bottom line: We believe a

47、sset class diversification alone is not going to work anymore. Granular analysis at the country and sector level is crucial to understanding exposure to the structural limits that will be tested in the post-Covid-19 world. Outdated diversification Maura Farley, CFA Investment grade credit analyst Bl

48、ackRock Global Fixed Income Achieving real resilience goes beyond broad asset class diversification. It requires considered diversification across country and sector exposures that can thrive in the new normal. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset cl

49、ass or This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise or even estimate of future performancestrategy or as a promise or even estimate of future performance. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, June 2020. Notes: The chart shows the historical 20-year correlation of weekly returns with global equities. Indexes used: , MSCI USA, MSCI Emerging Markets, Bloomberg Barclays U.S High Yield, JP Morgan EMBI Diversifi