世界經濟論壇：全球競爭力報告（95頁）.pdf

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1、The Global Competitiveness Report SPECIAL EDITION 2020 How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery Klaus Schwab Saadia Zahidi World Economic Forum The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery 2 Terms of use and disclaimer The a

2、nalysis presented in the Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020 (herein: “report”) is based on a methodology integrating the latest statistics from international organizations and a survey of executives. The methodology, developed in collaboration with leading experts and practitioners t

3、hrough a three-year consultative process, is designed to support countries to identify relevant policies and practices. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Economic Forum. The report presents information and data tha

4、t were compiled and/or collected by the World Economic Forum (all information and data referred herein as “data”). data in this report is subject to change without notice. The terms country and nation as used in this report do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as underst

5、ood by international law and practice. The terms cover well-defined, geographically self-contained economic areas that may not be states but for which statistical data is maintained on a separate and independent basis. Although the World Economic Forum takes every reasonable step to ensure that the

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14、th these terms. Users who intend to sell World Economic Forum data as part of a database or as a stand-alone product must first obtain the permission from the World Economic Forum (cnesweforum.org). World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869

15、1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: contactweforum.org www.weforum.org Copyright 2020 by the World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or o

16、therwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum. ISBN 978-2-940631-17-9 The report and an interactive data platform are available at www.weforum.org. 3 Contents Preface Executive Summary Introduction Section 1 Enabling Environment 1.1 What were the enabling environment-related prio

17、rities emerging from the past decade? 1.2 What are the priorities for the enabling environment for the revival of economies? 1.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of enabling environments? Section 2 Human Capital 2.1 What were the human capital-related priorities emerging from the past

18、decade? 2.2 What are the priorities for human capital development for revival of economies? 2.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of human capital? Section 3 Markets 3.1 What were the markets-related priorities emerging from the past decade? 3.2 What are the priorities for markets to be

19、come a driving force in economic revival? 3.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of markets? Section 4 Innovation Ecosystem 4.1 What were the innovation ecosystem-related priorities emerging from the past decade? 4.2 What are the priorities for innovation ecosystem to for the revival of

20、economies? 4.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of innovation ecosystem? Section 5 Measuring Economic Transformation Readiness Section 6 Disruptions and Resilience: Tracking the Impact of the Pandemic through Business Perceptions 6.1 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on indicators of c

21、ompetitiveness 6.2 Key features of competitiveness that enhanced countries responses to the pandemic Appendix A Transformation Readiness Framework: Methodology and Definitions Appendix B - Transformation Readiness Performance by Score in Category Appendix C The Executive Opinion Survey: The Voice of

22、 the Business Community Contributors and Acknowledgements Partner Institutes 4 5 9 11 12 17 19 20 21 25 26 27 28 35 36 38 39 41 42 43 52 53 54 63 73 77 87 88 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, incl

23、uding photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recov

24、ery 5 The 2020 special edition of The Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) series comes out at a very difficult and uncertain historical moment. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has not only led to a global health crisis and deep economic recessiondeeper than the downturn during the 20082009 fin

25、ancial crisisbut has also created a climate of profound uncertainty about the future outlook. At this pivotal moment, there are growing calls for “building back better”. While the immediate priority is to respond to the health crisis, this moment in time also offers a unique opportunity to reflect o

26、n the fundamental drivers of growth and productivity that have degraded since the financial crisis. It is also a moment to determine how we may shape our economic systems in the future so that they are not just productive but also lead to environmental sustainability and shared prosperity. The Globa

27、l Competitiveness Report series has since its first edition aimed to prompt policy- makers beyond short term growth and to aim for long-run prosperity. The 2019 edition of the Global Competitiveness Report showed how declining trends in fundamental aspects of productivity have been masked by long-st

28、anding accommodative monetary policy but have remained bottlenecks for strengthening economic development. This unusual moment calls for innovative and much-needed shifts in policy. Therefore, in 2020 the long-standing Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) rankings have been paused. Instead, this speci

29、al edition is dedicated to elaborating on the priorities for recovery and revival, and considering the building blocks of a transformation towards new economic systems that combine “productivity”, “people” and “planet” targets. In 2021, the report will revert to a benchmarking exercise that will pro

30、vide a new compass for the future direction of economic growth. This special edition analyses historical trends on factors of competitiveness as well as the latest thinking on future priorities. It provides recommendations against three timelines: a) those priorities that emerge from the historical

31、analysis before the health crisis; b) those priorities needed to restart the economy, beyond immediate responses to the COVID-19 crisis, while embedding people and planet into economic policies (revival over the next 1-2 years); and c) those priorities and policies needed to reboot economic systems

32、in the longer run to achieve sustainable and inclusive prosperity in the future (transformation over the next 3-5 years). Recommendations and timeframes are grouped into four broad areas of action: 1) reviving and transforming the enabling environment, 2) reviving and transforming human capital, 3)

33、reviving and transforming markets, and 4) reviving and transforming the innovation ecosystem. An initial assessment of countries on readiness for transformation is also provided that converts key priorities into quantitative measures for 37 economies. The key findings of the report are summarized be

34、low. Reviving and transforming the enabling environment Before the COVID-19 crisis, a long-standing issue had been the ongoing and consistent erosion of institutions, as shown by declining or stalling checks and balances and transparency indicators. Against this backdrop, in the revival phase govern

35、ments should prioritize improving long-term thinking capacity within governments and enhance mechanisms to deliver public services, including greater digitalization of public services. In the transformation phase, governments should work to ensure that public institutions embed strong governance pri

36、nciples and to regain public trust by serving their citizens. A second area of concern before the 2020 pandemic was high levels of debt in selected economies as well as widening inequalities. The emergency and stimulus measures have pushed already high public debt to unprecedented levels, while tax

37、bases have continued eroding or shifting. To respond to these issues, in the revival phase, the priority should be on preparing support measures for highly indebted low-income countries and plan for future public debt deleveraging. In the longer run (transformation phase) countries should focus on s

38、hifting to more progressive taxation, rethinking how corporations, wealth and labour are taxed. This will require both national reforms and setting an international cooperative framework. Before the COVID-19 crisis, despite the significant expansions of ICT access, ICT availability and use remained

39、far from universal. The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated digitalization in advanced economies and made catching up more difficult for countries or regions that were lagging before the crisis. Executive Summary 6 To address this challenge, in the revival phase, countries should upgrade utilities and o

40、ther infrastructure as well as closing the digital divide within and across countries for both firms and households. In the transformation phase, the priority should be on upgrading infrastructure to broaden access to electricity and ICT, while, at the same time, accelerating energy transition. Revi

41、ving and transforming human capital For several years before the crisis, skills mismatches, talent shortages and increasing misalignment between incentives and rewards for workers had been flagged as problematic for advancing productivity, prosperity and inclusion. Because of the pandemic and subseq

42、uent acceleration of technology adoption, these challenges have become even more pronounced and compounded further by permanent and temporary losses of employment and income. To address these issues, countries should focus in the revival phase on gradually transitioning from furlough schemes to new

43、labour market opportunities, scaling up reskilling and upskilling programmes and rethinking active labour market policies. In the transformation phase, leaders should work to update education curricula and expand investment in the skills needed for jobs in “markets of tomorrow”, and in parallel reth

44、ink labour laws for the new economy and use new talent management technologies to adapt to the new needs of the workforce. The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted a second issue: how healthcare systems capacity has lagged behind increasing populations in the developing world and ageing populations in th

45、e developed world. To respond to this trend, countries should in the revival phase expand health system capacity to manage the dual burden of current pandemic and future healthcare needs. In the longer run (transformation) there should be an effort to expand eldercare, childcare and healthcare infra

46、structure and innovation. Reviving and transforming markets Over the past decade, while financial systems have become sounder compared to the pre-financial crisis situation, they continued to display some fragility, including increased corporate debt risks and liquidity mismatches. In addition, acce

47、ss to finance, despite efforts to increase inclusion in recent years (including through fintech applications), is not sufficiently widespread. Against this backdrop, countries should in the revival phase prioritize reinforcing financial markets stability, while starting to introduce financial incent

48、ives for companies to engage in sustainable and inclusive investments. In the transformation phase, the attention should shift to create incentives to direct financial resources towards long-term investments, strengthening stability while continuing to expand inclusion. Pre-crisis, there was increas

49、ing market concentration, with large productivity and profitability gaps between the top companies in each sector and all others; and the fallout from the pandemic and associated recession is likely to exacerbate these trends. To address this issue, countries should in the revival phase strike a balance between continuing measures to support firms and prevent excessive industry consolidation with sufficient flexibility to avoid keeping “zombie- firms” in the system. In the transformation phase, countries should rethink competition and anti-tr