德勤：2018年非洲基礎建設市場動態報告(60頁).pdf

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1、2018年非洲基礎建設 市場動態 2018年非洲基礎建設市場動態 | 聚焦非洲基建 2 目錄 序言 3 聚焦非洲基建 4 基礎設施與資本項目支出的經濟現狀 13 分析：如何將非洲與中國的“一帶一路”相聯系 19 分析方法 26 尾注 27 聯系我們 28 附錄 29 2018年非洲基礎建設市場動態 | 序言 3 序言 基礎建設對于非洲的發展至關重要，然 而目前不少非洲國家政府在推動私有經 濟參與和發展基建項目的同時面臨挑 戰，因此正確的應對方針將成為關鍵。 本報告聚焦于基建投資的不平衡問題， 并詳細分析了政府為解決這些問題所采 取的措施。 本報告按地區分析基建項目，從所有權 角度來看，非洲政府

2、是絕大多數項目的 業主。從資金角度來看，政府、開發金 融機構以及中國企業是主要資金來源， 值得一提的是，非洲開發金融機構相對 于其他出資方占比較小。從項目承建角 度分析，外國承建商占比正逐漸超過非 洲本土承建商，例如中國企業承建了所 有項目中的33%，已超過非洲本土企業 的24%。 交通運輸業是非洲增長最快的產業，房 地產因項目數量增加而緊隨其后。報告 將房地產細分為工業地產、商業地產和 住宅地產，其中前兩者項目數量顯著增 加。工業地產項目的增加符合非洲政府 發展、提升制造業的戰略方針，許多非 洲政府希望通過設立出口加工區或經濟 特區，提升其初級產品的附加值。與此 同時，制造業的發展需要交通運

3、輸業的 帶動，因為運輸業的發展能夠為貨物在 全國乃至各地區間的自由流通提供更便 利的條件。 此外， 本報告著重分析了中國對非洲的影 響， 尤其是 “一帶一路” 倡議對非洲各國的 意義、 價值以及承諾。 如今， 無論是非洲政 府， 還是項目承包方、 投資方都在考慮， 如 何根據 “一帶一路” 倡議的要求進行調整， 如何積極參與到 “一帶一路” 基建項目中。 為幫助更多非洲企業、 政府和投資者了解 并抓住 “一帶一路” 所帶來的機遇， 非 洲與中國加強緊密協作。 本報告由德 勤非洲團隊撰寫， 中國翻譯， 充分展現 了我們的跨境協作能力。 參與了許多全球大型、復雜的基礎 設施和資本項目（I Ango

4、la, where they are constructing six projects; and in Zimbabwe, where five Chinese-built projects are currently underway. Portuguese firms continue to construct projects in Angola and Mozambique Portugals former colonies but have also continued with the construction of projects in Zambia, constructin

5、g 4.9% of projects in the Southern Africa region. South African firms also continue to be prominent in other countries in the region, also with 4.9% of projects. South African construction firms are involved in the construction of projects in Botswana, Mozambique, and Zambia. Australian firms are re

6、sponsible for 4.9% of projects in the Southern Africa region, and companies from a number of countries are responsible for three or fewer projects (fewer than 3% of projects) each and make up the remaining 14.6% of projects. Angola has the largest share of the top 10 projects in the region with five

7、 projects, while South Africa is home to three projects. Mozambique and Zimbabwe account for the remaining two projects, with one project in Mozambique and one project in Zimbabwe. The top 10 projects account for 68.6% of total project value in US dollar terms in Southern Africa. The Kaombo, Block 3

8、2 project in the Oil & Gas sector remains the largest project in the region, worth US$16bn. The Kusile Coal-Fired Power Plant in South Africa is the second largest project in Southern Africa with a price tag of US$15.2bn, followed by Medupi Power Station, a US$13.2bn project also in South Africa. Th

9、ere are five new additions to the top 10 projects, with the highest-valued project being the Namibe Refinery Project in Angola, valued at US$12bn. Modderfontein City, a mixed-use development with a price tag of US$7.3bn, which was the third largest project in 2017, is no longer included in the list

10、of featured projects after facing delays and being downgraded from initial plans. Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: Central Africa 42 Central Africa 20142015201620172018 2018% of continental projects Projects13232420265.4 Value (US$bn)33.235.879.826.95.7 The Centr

11、al Africa region is made up of Cameroon, Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, and So Tom and Prncipe. The region represents 5.4% of all projects in Africa and 5.7% in terms of US dollar value. The Central Afric

12、a region is home to 26 projects worth US$26.9bn. The number of projects as well as the corresponding US dollar value represent an increase of 30% and 174.5% respectively from the previous year. Two significant mining projects in the resource-rich region, among other new projects, have added an addit

13、ional US$6bn and US$4.7bn respectively in value to projects in Central Africa. Cameroon accounts for the largest share of projects in the region with 50% of all projects, and 56.4% of projects by value. The DRC follows, accounting for 23.1% of projects and 20.2% in terms of US dollar value. Africa C

14、onstruction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: Central Africa 43 Projects by sector2014%2015%2016%2017%2018% Energy & Power271929 204 Transport606542 3019 Real Estate648 1519 Water/44 /4 Mining748 1538 Oil & Gas/4 Shipping & Ports / / 4 104 Social Development / 44 5/ Education / / / 5

15、4 Healthcare/4 Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 May not total to 100% due to rounding. Share of projects by number Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: Central Africa 44 Projects by sector (number of projects) Projects by sector (value of projects) Energy & Power (3.8

16、%) Transport (19.2%) Real Estate (19.2%) Water (3.8%) Mining (38.5%) Oil & Gas (3.8%) Shipping & Ports (3.8%) Healthcare (3.8%) Education (3.8%) Energy & Power (1.8%) Transport (4.0%) Real Estate (10.5%) Water (0.3%) Oil & Gas (0.6%) Shipping & Ports (4.4%) Healthcare (0.2%)Mining (76.6%) Education

17、(1.5%) Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Mining projects dominate the sectoral composition of projects in Central Africa with 38.5% of the 26 projects, representing 76.6% in US dollar terms. Central Africa remains one of the least diversified regions in Africa in terms

18、of economic activities, maintaining a heavy reliance on natural resources and extractives. Transport projects follow, accounting for 19.2% of projects and 4% in terms of US dollar value. The Port of Banana, a multipurpose port project in the DRC the first deep-sea port in the country represents a ke

19、y Shipping & Ports project in the region. Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: Central Africa 45 Who owns? Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Single Countries include Canada, India, Mauritius and Norway. Government (53.8%) Single Countries (15.4%) China (11.5%) Australi

20、a (7.7%) UK (7.7%) US (3.8%) Who funds? China (26.9%) Single Countries (23.1%) Middle East (11.5%) International DFIs (7.7%) Private Domestic (7.7%) UK (7.7%) EU Countries (7.7%) African DFIs (3.8%) Government (3.8%) Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Single Countries include Australia, Canada, India,

21、Mauritius, South Korea, and the US. Middle East includes Turkey, and the UAE. EU Countries include Italy and Norway. Governments own 53.8% of projects in the region, with the majority of government- owned projects being in the Transport sector. The Kribi-Lolabe Double Carriage Road Project, a 38.5km

22、 long highway in Cameroon under construction by a Chinese construction firm, valued at US$456m, is one of five road infrastructure projects in the region. Investments of this nature are the result of Central African countries falling among countries with the lowest coverage of paved roads in Africa.

23、 Foreign interests in the ownership of Central African projects are concentrated in the Mining sector, with China, Australia, the UK, the US, and Canada being significant participants. This is in contrast to project funding, where governments in Central Africa finance only 3.8% of projects. China is

24、 the largest funder, accounting for 26.9% of projects, with an affinity for the Mining and Transport sectors of the region. Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: Central Africa 46 Who builds? China (38.5%) Single Countries (19.2%) EU Countries (15.4%) Middle East (11.

25、5%) UK (7.7%) US (3.8%) Australia (3.8%) Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Single Countries include Gabon, India, Mauritius, South Africa, and South Korea. EU Countries include France, Italy, and Spain. China remains a key player in project construction, building 38.5% of all projects in the region. S

26、ingle countries made up of Gabon, India, Mauritius, South Africa, and South Korea account for a combined 19.2% of projects. The majority of the top 10 projects in the Central Africa region fall within the Mining sector, including bauxite, iron ore, copper and nickel projects. Central Africas Copperb

27、elt remains an attractive investment site for international mining conglomerates, with global commodity prices informing interest in the sector. Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: Central Africa 47 CountryProjectSectorUS$bn CameroonNgaoundal & Minim-MartapMining6.0

28、 CameroonMbalam-NabebaMining 4.7 Congo- Brazzaville ZanagaMining4.7 DRCKamoa-KakulaMining2.9 CameroonSonara Expansion ProjectReal Estate1.3 DRCBanana Deep-water PortShipping & Ports1.2 CameroonNkamouna-MadaMining0.83 DRCKolweziMining0.61 Equatorial Guinea Bioko Oil Storage TerminalIndustrial Constru

29、ction0.50 CameroonLom Pangar Hydropower ProjectEnergy & Power0.49 Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Top 10 projects (by value) Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus 48 Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: West Africa 49 West Africa 201420

30、15201620172018 2018% of continental projects Projects6679927910521.8% Value (US$bn)74.8116.2119.898.382.817.6% West Africa has 105 projects currently underway, with a total US dollar value of US$82.8bn. The region accounts for 21.8% of all projects in Africa and 17.6% of the continents total project

31、 US dollar value. West Africa includes Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cte dIvoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea- Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo. The West Africa region has experienced an increase of 32.9% in the number of projects, while the

32、 US dollar value decreased by 15.8%. This is due to the completion of some of the regions largest projects in the last year, such as Nigerias US$15bn Engina Gas Field project, as well as Ghanas US$7bn Block Offshore Integrated Oil & Gas Development Project, both of which have entered production. Oth

33、er sizeable projects which have been completed include Nigerias US$8.3bn Lagos- Kano Rail Project, and Ghanas US$4bn Ada Estuary Tidal Power Plant, which has since been commissioned. These projects have a combined value of US$34.3bn. Nigeria continues to be home to the greatest number of projects in

34、 West Africa, with 32 projects (30.5% of the regional total), valued at US$63bn (76.4% in US dollar value terms). Nigeria is followed by Ghana with 30 projects, valued at US$10bn. These two countries account for 59% of all projects in West Africa and 89.5% by value. Africa Construction Trends Report

35、 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: West Africa 50 Projects by sector2014%2015%2016%2017%2018% Energy & Power2123181311 Transport2930344350 Real Estate88221917 Water1210245 Mining149243 Oil & Gas/14331 Shipping & Ports/12119 Social Development /4111 TMT1/ Healthcare32334 Education/2/ Mixed Use2/ Ot

36、her10/ Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 May not total to 100% due to rounding. Share of projects by number Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: West Africa 51 Projects by sector (number of projects) Projects by sector (value of projects) Energy & Power (11.4%) Transpo

37、rt (49.5%) Real Estate (17.1%) Water (4.8%) Mining (2.9%) Oil & Gas (1.0%) Shipping & Ports (8.6%) Social Development (1.0%) Healthcare (3.8%) Energy & Power (6.7%) Transport (19.5%) Real Estate (27.1%) Water (2.1%) Oil & Gas (19.3%) Shipping & Ports (22.8%) Social Development (0.1%)Mining (1.9%) He

38、althcare (0.4%) Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Government (82.9%) Private Domestic (4.8%) Single Countries (4.8%) China (1.9%) France (1.9%) Nigeria (1.9%) US (1.9%) Who owns? Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Single Countries include Australia, Belgium, Canada, Macau,

39、 and Turkey. The Transport sector continues to have the largest number of projects in West Africa, with 52 projects, representing 49.5% of total projects in the region. Projects in the Transport sector have a combined US dollar value of US$16.2bn, representing 19.5% of the regions projects by value.

40、 The Real Estate sector follows, accounting for 17.1% of all projects in West Africa, and 27.1% in terms of US dollar value. Transport projects in West Africa, particularly road, bridge, and rail projects, represent a joint effort by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to develop

41、the movement of persons, goods, and services within the region. Large-scale industrial construction projects in the Real Estate sector continue to keep Real Estate the most valuable sector in US dollar terms, despite the sector only accounting for 17.1% of total projects. Nigerias Dangote Oil refine

42、ry, at US$12bn, is one such ongoing project that is expected to enter production in 2019. Projects in West Africa are predominantly owned by governments, which account for 82.9% of projects in the region. Private domestic firms and single countries follow, each accounting for 4.8% of projects in the

43、 region. Of the 87 government-owned projects, 60 are in the Transport sector, with a particular concentration on road infrastructure. Africa Construction Trends Report 2018 | Regional Construction Focus: West Africa 52 Who funds? Who builds? Government (26.7%) China (21.0%) African DFIs (14.3%) Sing

44、le Countries (8.6%) International DFIs (8.6%) Private Domestic (8.6%) EU Countries (5.7%) Consortiums (2.9%) Brazil (1.9%) US (1.9%) China (27.6%) Private Domestic (21.9%) EU Countries (14.3%) Single Countries (9.5%) Brazil (5.7%) Middle East (4.8%) Egypt (3.8%) Government (2.9%) Japan (1.9%) South

45、Africa (1.9%) Consortiums (1.9%) Burkina Faso (1.9%) US (1.9%) Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Single Countries include Australia, Canada, Ghana, Japan, Macau, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Turkey. EU Countries include Austria, Belgium, and France. Source: Deloitte analysis, 2018 Single Countr

46、ies include Australia, Canada, Cte dIvoire, India, Liberia, Macau, Singapore, Tunisia, the UK, and the US. EU Countries include Belgium, Finland, France, and Italy. Middle East includes Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Governments fund the majority of projects in the region, 26.7% of projects, followed by C

47、hina at 21.0%. Of the 22 Chinese-funded projects in the West Africa region, 13 are in the Transport sector, five in Energy & Power, with the remaining four projects in other sectors. Chinese builders dominate construction activities in the West African region with 27.6% of projects, followed by priv

48、ate domestic companies with 21.9% of projects. Similar to Chinese funders, Chinese builders are heavily concentrated in the Transport sector. Nigerias Lagos- Badagry Expressway Expansion project is one such Chinese-built Transport project, valued at US$1.9bn. China continues to be a global leader in

49、 the construction of road, rail and highways, having the most kilometres of highway in the world within its own borders, and now projecting these capabilities overseas. West Africas 10 largest projects account for 70.1% of the regions total project value, with seven of the 10 projects falling in the Transport and Shipping & Ports sectors. Nigerias OML 130 an Oil & Gas development is the regions largest project by value at US$16bn, followed by Nigerias Olokola Deep-sea Port at US$12bn. Nine of the top 10 projects in