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1、Anthony HobleyAnthony HobleyChief Executive, Carbon Tracker InitiativeCarbon Tracker Initiative首席執行官July 17, 20172017年7月17日carbonbubbleA Changing Climate and the Financial Risk for Fossil Fuels氣候變化與化石燃料的金融風險Who is Carbon Tracker? Carbon Tracker(碳追蹤)是誰？2IdentityIdentity身份身份An independent non-profit f

2、inancial think tank funded by EU and US foundations.歐盟和美國的基金會出資成立運營的一個獨立非營利性金融智庫MissionMission使命使命Demonstrate the financial case for the transition of the fossil fuel sector in line with 2C.論證與2C目標相符的化石燃料行業轉型的金融理據VisionVision愿景愿景To enable a 2C-aligned global energy system.促成建立符合 2C 目標的全球能源體系Sustaina

3、bility at the heart of challenges for 21st Century可持續性是21世紀面臨的挑戰的核心The environment is at the centre of our future and driving change: 環境是我們未來的重心，正在推動變革：Ambitious policy at internationalinternational (Paris Agreement) and nationalnational (“Ecological Civilization”) levels國際層面（巴黎協議）和國家層面（“生態文明建設”）的宏大

4、政策Rapid technologicaltechnological development快速的技術發展Financial markets waking up to the problem?金融市場開始意識到這個問題？3Private sector has central role私營部門發揮核心作用A green transition requires deployment of capital away from “brown” towards “green” sources of energy. 綠色轉型要求把資本部署從“棕色”轉向“綠色”來源的能源This requires unde

5、rstanding the opportunitiesopportunities on the green side and the risksrisks to the brown side. 這要求理解綠色側的機會機會和棕色側的風險風險41.Policy targets provide a framework for understanding the financial risks政策目標提供理解金融風險的框架Misalignment at the macro-level宏觀層面錯位6Company-level impact公司層面影響Our carbon supply cost curv

6、es follow economic logic of efficient capital allocation我們的碳供給成本曲線符合高效資本配置的經濟學邏輯7Some companies better prepared than others有些公司準備比其他公司充分8Government plans indicate changes to fuel mix政府規劃顯示燃料結構的變化Environmental targets have local implications.環境目標具有本地影響Policy ambition can provide important market sign

7、als.政策抱負可以折射出重要市場信號92.Technological disruption may surprise incumbents and investors技術顛覆可能會令在位者和投資者吃驚Demand mismatch sets up potential misread需求不匹配引起潛在的誤讀11Different assumptions tell a different story不同假設得出不同結論12Solar PV could supply 23% of global power by 2040 and 29% by 2050太陽能光伏到2040年可以提供全球電力的23%

8、，到2050年達到29%Electric vehicles could provide 35% of road transport by 2035 and over 66% by 2050電動車到2035年占公路交通的35%，到2050年超過66%Coal demand peak in 2020煤炭需求到2020年達到最高水平Oil demand peak in 2020石油需求到2020年達到最高水平Gas demand curtailed燃氣需求減少3.Addressing the challenges of the transition through disclosure and tr

9、ansparency通過披露和透明應對轉型帶來的挑戰Disclosure shines light on risks披露揭示風險Investors focus on the futurefuture. They will shift capital where there is a financial justification. Key needs: 投資者面向未來未來。他們將把資本轉向具有金融合理性的地方。關鍵需求：Translate climate policy into impact on company assets (scenario analysis).把氣候政策轉化成對公司資產

10、的影響（情景分析）Improve disclosure of the assumptions underpinning company forecasts to allow investors to scrutinize them. 改進支持公司預測的假設的披露，便于投資者仔細分析。14There is a financial case for oil & gas companies to wind-down存在油氣公司逐步退出的金融理據15Concluding thoughts結論Private sector and markets will play a key role in devel

11、oping a sustainable energy system. 私營部門和市場將在發展可持續能源體系中發揮關鍵作用Investors are forward looking, but require true pricing of market risks to deploy capital.投資者具備前瞻性的視野，但是要求獲得市場風險的真正定價以部署資本 。 Improved disclosure can make a market in climate risk 改進披露可以建立一個氣候風險市場16Thank You.謝謝！Anthony HobleyAnthony HobleyChief Executive, Carbon Tracker InitiativeCarbon Tracker Initiative首席執行官ahobleycarbontracker.orgwww.carbontracker.orgcarbonbubble17