麥肯錫：全球保險業報告（36頁）.pdf

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1、February 2022Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022This report is a collaborative effort by Pierre-Ignace Bernard, Stephan Binder, Alexander DAmico, Henri de Combles de Nayves, Kweilin Ellingrud, Philipp Klais, Bernhard Kotanko, and Kurt Strovink, representing views from McKinse

2、ys Insurance Practice.ContentsiiIntroduction01Welcome to a new world07State of the industry21Strategic imperatives for insurers27Where to play: Focusing the portfolioCreating value, finding focusWelcome to the first edition of McKinseys Global Insurance Report, focused on challenges and opportunitie

3、s for carriers in the global insurance industry. In this report, we look back at the past years developments and ahead to the ways that the industry is evolving.The global pandemic is resurgent with yet another wave of rising case numbers and pressure on healthcare systems. Its effects on business a

4、re no less significant. Over the past two years, COVID-19 has accelerated some trends that look certain to reshape the way insurance is underwritten, distributed, and managed. At the same time, some of the problems that have challenged the industry over the past decade have not gone away, and the co

5、mplexity of the macroeconomic environment has increased. Revenue growth is limited in most regions; intermediaries are capturing more value; scale economies are proving elusive; and productivity is quite stagnant. As a result, economic profitthat is, profit after cost of capitalin the insurance indu

6、stry is practically at a standstill. The industrys problems are not lost on capital markets. As public investors mark down companies shares, private investors swoop in to acquire closed books, and some insurers reconsider their geographical footprints, the fundamental structure of the industry is co

7、ming into question. Insurers now face several fundamental strategic questions: How can they create more value for shareholders? Can they unlock latent demand and improve the customer experience? How can they regain momentum on the long-running quest to improve productivity? Also, what about talent?

8、How can they reimagine the employee proposition to attract and retain the brightest and best after the pandemic? Finally, how can insurers, individually and collectively, reframe the role and purpose of insurance in society? To address these questions, we believe the leadership teams of insurance ca

9、rriers need to capitalize on nine value levers:1. Make environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations a core feature of the business model.2. Regain relevance through product innovation and coverage of new risks. 3. Enhance and personalize customer engagement and experience.4. Engage wit

10、h ecosystems and insurtechs.5. Develop new businesses for the digital age.6. Scale impact from data and analytics.7. Modernize core technology platforms.8. Address the productivity imperative.9. Reimagine culture, diversity, and ways of working to attract and retain talent.iiCreating value, finding

11、focus: Global Insurance Report 2022Addressing these nine imperatives will help carriers answer strategic questions about “how to play.” But the challenges and recent trends facing the industry will force some insurers also to think about “where to play,” to rebalance their portfolios of businesses,

12、and to review their capital allocation accordingly, in particular through M&A and asset disposals. At the end of this report, we focus on this pressing question: Where should insurers be active (in terms of geography, lines of business, and position in the value chain) to renew value creation and th

13、emselves? The recent wave of sales of noncore businesses to buyers with different business models suggests that a secular change may be in the works. We might be witnessing a period when the quest for economies of scale and breadth of footprint, a common strategic thrust of the past decades for many

14、 insurers, yields to a more rigorous search for a companys true source of competitive advantage. To form a strategy that addresses the challenges of this period of intense flux, carriers will need to put focus and local scale at center stage. Insurers that can develop a tightly defined business mode

15、l and take advantage of the trends and currents unleashed by the global pandemic can restart growth, expand performance on multiple dimensions, and renew themselves through value creation, securing an industry-leading position in the years to come. Where should insurers be active to renew value crea

16、tion and themselves? iiiCreating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 Alexander W Helin/Getty ImagesIn coming years, the global insurance industry will be profoundly shaped by some megatrends that have emerged and accelerated since February 2020.The past two years may have been the mos

17、t peculiar recession and recovery in living memory. In 2020, the human tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global economic downturn that was initially sharper than the Great Depression. As government support programs took shape, the recession rapidly bottomed out, leading to a strong econom

18、ic recovery in 2021. Global financial markets took a roller-coaster ride as well. The impact on the insurance industry was noticeable: in 2020, premium growth slowed to approximately 1.2 percent (compared with more than 4 percent per year between 2010 and 2020). Profits fell by about 15 percent from

19、 2019. The decline was sharpest in AsiaPacific (down 36 percent) and was particularly driven by falling profits in life (Exhibits 1 and 2). Preliminary data suggest that premium growth and profits rebounded in 2021, especially in regions where strong vaccine rollouts have made many activities possib

20、le again, at least periodically.1Welcome to a new world1Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 20222Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022Exhibit 1Source: McKinsey Global Insurance PoolsPremium growth rebounded in 2021 after slowing in 2020.Note: Figures may not

21、sum, because of rounding.1 Based on 2020 average fxed exchange rate.2 Per annum.Global insurance gross premiums written, $ billions15,6025,4213,8785,6722,3481,5311,8345,1571,4402,4912,3891,6621,3631,7351,6041,2781,2141,4592,2584,9321,9091,7008432,4541,5485,9871,1262,4624.1%p.a.24.0%p.a.2Americas Asi

22、aPacifcEurope, Middle East, and Africa1,6062,1167262,1856911,1649052,4425806931,0786352,7619447598289996072,5418455695862,3108904898106335314.7%p.a.25.5%p.a.2562CAGR, %201621HealthP&CLife4794722043761968314207861594352292177801,5332128238821,2881,4531,3951891,5361,4757534508484981,5581.3%p.a.22.2%p.

23、a.2967201025266820191,6271,6564314182691,6688929801,5742020E39520181,5192143712021E19297522995698420174291801,4219653492016201020192020E20182021E20172016201020192020E20182021E20172016201020192020E20182021E20172016982196.3%p.a.23.3%p.a.2674341482Premium growth rebounded in 2021 after slowing in 2020.

24、3Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022Exhibit 2Industry profts increased in 2021 after a dip in 2020. Source: McKinsey Global Insurance PoolsNote: Figures may not sum, because of rounding.1 Based on 2020 average fxed exchange rate.2 Per annum.34Global insurance after-tax profts

25、, $ billions117033279311901811341187162360134215392147501051561112848614043128139393244.8%p.a.24.8%p.a.28853881046712415912111322371521568767181391224321212021E20162020E20182019201720102021E20162020E20182019201720102021E20162020E20182019201720102021E20162020E201820192017201025558.1%p.a.26.1%p.a.2103

26、5156406812674971214246785765451044032492687511461414.7%p.a.24.3%p.a.2492849604323201527014262437194144423949324147120247541167241133.1%p.a.24.6%p.a.2HealthP&CLifeAmericas AsiaPacifcEurope, Middle East, and Africa654CAGR, %20162191151041197Industry profits increased in 2021 after a dip in 2020.Megatr

27、ends in the post-COVID-19 worldIn coming years, the global insurance industry will be profoundly shaped by some megatrends that have emerged and accelerated since February 2020. Some are shifts in the macroeconomy; others are changes in competitive dynamics. The most dramatic may be changes in custo

28、mer and employer behaviors. While most of these trends are not completely new, they have accelerated during the pandemic. In aggregate, they are shaping a new operating environment for insurers that is hugely disruptive and that challenges traditional ways of value creation. These trends, in brief,

29、include the following: A decoupling of macroeconomic environments among Asia, Europe, and North America, whether through elevated geopolitical and trade tensions or different interest rate trends between regions. (For example, while the situation remains highly ambiguous, the United States may be ex

30、iting the “low for long” rate environment on the back of a noticeable though perhaps transitory spike in inflation). In areas where low rates continue to prevail, this could put even more pressure on life insurers to revamp their business models accordingly. A dichotomy between winners and losers, r

31、einforced by the crisis. The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has varied considerably by geography (for example, Asia, Europe, and North America are recovering at different speeds); by sector (for example, travel and hospitality suffered a deep recession, whereas e-commerce companies soared)

32、; and within each sector (resulting in intense M&A activity). The past two years have thus reinforced the superstar phenomenon1the growing concentration of economic successthat we have observed not just among companies but also in cities, economic sectors such as insurance, and other aspects of the

33、global economy. Among the worlds largest companies, economic profit is distributed unequally along a “power curve,” with the top 10 percent of firms capturing 80 percent of 1 For more, see “What every CEO needs to know about superstar companies,” McKinsey Global Institute, April 2, 2019.2 Arun Arora

34、, Hamza Khan, Sajal Kohli, and Caroline Tufft, “DTC e-commerce: How consumer brands can get it right,” McKinsey, November 30, 2020.it. The insurance industry has not escaped this trend, moving from a moderately value-creating industry to one that destroys valueand the trend is even stronger at the c

35、ompany level. Half of insurers globally are not earning their cost of capital, and half are trading below book value. A potential anchoring of remote-interaction models with customers. The pandemic saw a “decade in days” acceleration in digital uptakefor example, e-commerce sales in the United State

36、s grew as much in the first half of 2020 as in the previous ten years.2 Tech players platforms strengthened their position as go-to places for customers. The frequency of interactions and the level of personalization have dramatically changed, and insurers need to ensure they stay relevant and can c

37、raft truly personal, needs-based contextual experiences. This situation will probably provide tailwinds for insurtechs and other digital attackers, raising the risk of disruption for incumbents. To fend off the threat, insurers will need to make additional IT investments to digitalize and automate t

38、heir processes; if the trend persists, they might even need to significantly modify their distribution models by repositioning the roles of agencies, brokers, and digital sales channels. An increased awareness of sustainability, climate change, and issues of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I).

39、Corporates and customers alike have become attuned to a broader range of environmental and energy issues, as well as situations of social, racial, and generational injustice. This will have an immediate impact on insurers, particularly in their investment and underwriting portfolios, as governments

40、set target dates to reach net-zero emissions. In addition, natural catastrophes abounded in 2020 and 2021, leaving insurers wondering whether these patterns represent extraordinary activity or the new normalin which case, they will need to examine whether their pricing models adequately account for

41、these events.4Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022 New challenges to the purpose and relevance of insurers. Just as the financial crisis of 200709 put the spotlight on the banking industry, the pandemic and its associated insurance issues have put the spotlight on the insuranc

42、e industry. This might prompt insurers to rethink their societal purpose and relevance in the economy as a risk-taking industry. There is a perception that the industry has lost this characteristic in the past ten years by limiting the types of risks or clients it covers (as seen in Europe, where li

43、fe insurance has moved sharply toward unit-linked products). A rethinking of mobility. Commercial aviation and other forms of travel fell sharply over the past two years; shared mobility3 and micromobility4 fell, then resumed their steady rise. Next steps might include a rebalancing among modes of t

44、ransport; for example, COVID-19 habits might result in a continued preference for individual car use over public transport but also in less driving overall as people continue to work from home. This might encourage insurers to reexamine their product offerings on severely affected lines of business

45、(such as life, travel, and events) and to innovate. For example, they might cover emerging mobility needs, make new use of telematics, or engage in mobility ecosystems5being thoughtful and realistic 3 Lennart Andersson, Andreas Glfke, Timo Mller, and Tobias Schneiderbauer, “Why shared mobility is po

46、ised to make a comeback after the crisis,” McKinsey, July 15, 2020.4 Kersten Heineke, Benedikt Kloss, and Darius Scurtu, “The future of micromobility: Ridership and revenue after a crisis,” McKinsey, July 16, 2020. 5 Insurance insights that matter, “A view from the Pacific Insurance Conference: How

47、to create a successful insurance ecosystem,” blog entry by Bernhard Kotanko, McKinsey, January 8, 2020.6 “Digital health ecosystems: A payer perspective,” McKinsey, August 2, 2019.7 For more, see “The consumer demand recovery and lasting effects of COVID-19,” McKinsey Global Institute, March 17, 202

48、1.8 “Digital ecosystems for insurers: Opportunities through the Internet of Things,” McKinsey, February 4, 2019.9 Aaron De Smet, Bonnie Dowling, Mihir Mysore, and Angelika Reich, “Its time for leaders to get real about hybrid,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 9, 2021.10 Insurance insights that matter, “Why

49、 insurers should embrace remote work,” blog post by Julie Goran and Tom Welchman, McKinsey, April 21, 2021.about their role in a world increasingly dominated by platform companies. A renewed focus on health and well-being and a greater interest in home nesting. The ongoing health crisis could leave

50、a mark on consumers psyches for a generation and could inspire insurers to actively participate in health and protection ecosystems.6 At the same time, consumers are now hooked on “home nesting,” or leisure activities at home (such as cooking, DIY projects, meditation, and streaming entertainment).