安永Petr-Mobility sector dynamics.pdf

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1、Strana 1Mobility sector dynamicsWhat can we see as the major aspects trends in the(not only EU)automotive&mobility sector?29 November 20233The EU automotive industry is a critical part of its economy(7%GDP)with 213 plants.EU-Chinatrading relationships form one of the strongest links to vital global

2、trade.Mobility sector dynamics4Global trends:Automotive is rapidly changing which leads to disruption of value chains.Externalfactors and compeition forces OEMs to reevaluate business models.Suppliers are changingalong.Europe is faced with most challenges&huge legacy.Key long-term trends influencing

3、 the sector that is being hit by the economic uncertainty and slow-downTalent shortgageOnline&omnichannel retailEfficiency&flexibility in production&supply chainsIncreasing competitionCustomer-focused approach/Agency&D2C ModelsProduct Innovation:X-EV,Digitalisation(SdV),ADAS-ADSustainability/Tougher

4、 regulation in ESG and safetyGeopolitics adding fragility to complexsupply chainsMobility sector dynamics5EY forecast of global vehicle sales by fuel type,20202050 It is expected that by 2032,EV sales will surpass all other fuel types It is expected that the sale of cars with fuel other than purely

5、electric will decrease to less than 16%of respondents planning to buy a carEV buying intentFully electric/plug-in hybrid/hybridPlug-in hybridHybridFully electric30.0%40.7%51.6%55.1%7.0%11.9%20.2%20.4%7.0%9.6%10.0%12.2%16.0%19.2%21.3%22.6%2020202120222023Globally,EVs are becoming a standard product.I

6、n 2028-29 should BEV prevail on the EU market.We expect ICEs will practically disappear from new car offerings by 2040.55%of total global vehicle sales by 2030 will be battery EVs and PHEVs.Currently,already 14/20 best selling EV models are ChineseEY Mobility Lens Suite EV,2023 Transition Insights*R

7、espondents were asked whether they plan on buying a car and if so,which type.Respondents could select multiple options including not buying a car at all.The results are not cumulative for vehicle types nor years.Mobility sector dynamics20202025203520302040204520500%20%40%60%80%100%BEVHybridICEPHEV66

8、 2023|E-mobility Fundamentals Wave-on-wave evolution of the segments shows increasing positive attitude to BEVs on averagewith increasing share of Enthusiasts but steady share of Reluctants&Skeptics.Global evolution of consumer segments(2021-2023)The share of EV Enthusiasts has consistently increase

9、d from 6%in 2021 to 11%in 2022 and 13%in 2023.Also evident is a gradual shift in share of both Persuadables and Considerers towards Enthusiasts.However,proportion of Skeptics and Reluctants registered a 3 points increase in 2023,highlighting the fact that there continues to be a sizeable population(

10、almost 30%)set which is not very sure about EVs.9%10%11%19%17%19%37%33%28%29%30%29%6%11%13%EnthusiastsConsiderersPersuadablesReluctantsSkeptics20212022202377 2023|E-mobility Fundamentals EV Batteries require rare resources,unevenly distributed around the world a challenge in itself to manage supply

11、chains.Mobility sector dynamicsRecent supply chain disruptions as a result of the pandemic have increased an awareness of the need to have a greater control.Actions are being taken in the EU to build more self-sufficient regional supply chains,including new mines and processing facilities and batter

12、y factoriesEUs Critical Raw Material Act identifies crucial materials and sets targets and strategies to secure a stable and diversified supply chains of materials including its recyclation.88Autonomous driving faces number of obstacles.Investments are mainly directed towards the ADAS systems focuse

13、d on L1-L2,and later L3 driving.Only 26%of consumers say they would switch to an autonomous vehicle.Regulatory environment is evolving gradually,especially in Europe(L3 in speeds up to 60kmh).And way to go to global standards.Big promise for the industry and ecosystems with high level of uncertainty

14、,and competing with other industry pressing investment needs.Estimated advanced driver-assistance systems HW market value could reach USD55-80B by 20309Massive changes are ongoing across the mobility sector as a whole.What is the outlook for European automotive in the midst of changes?E-mobility is

15、a new competitive battleground and fast growing market with distinct customer segments.How well do we play globally and how can we as EU compete?123Materials and production capabilities are critical.How can EU sustain its competitive position going forward if at all?Key discussion pointsMobility sector dynamics