高力國際：2022年全球投資者展望報告（44頁）.pdf

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1、2022 Global Investor Outlook Report Global Capital Markets Global Capital is back Global capital is back as pandemic-related uncertainty and travel restrictions remain in flux. In 2021, real assets - across all property asset classes - played an increasingly prominent role in global investment strat

2、egies in a show of impressive resilience. Looking ahead, property will continue to demonstrate a strong investment trajectory amid less-than-ideal conditions, with investment volumes set to match the 5 year average. As investors race to deploy capital in 2022, they face an increasingly complex and c

3、ompetitive marketplace, buoyed by multiple growth opportunities in expanding economies and populations. New regulations and legislation - particularly regarding ESG will continue to shape the investment landscape and decision-making process. The key trends shaping global real estate investment marke

4、ts in the year ahead include: Investing with intent. Social and environmental trends are a clear priority, increasingly woven into long-term investment strategies and performance targets. We expect environmental attributes and asset performance to drive market turnover as investors re-calibrate thei

5、r assets under management. Three quarters of investors surveyed globally are taking action, with at least 25% in advanced planning stages on whether to hold or dispose assets. Social trends point to affordable housing as a significant growth opportunity globally when expertly managed. The race to co

6、re assets. As investors upgrade and future-proof their portfolios, the race to core will impact asset pricing. An estimated 1% of global office assets meet Net Zero standards, yet core-plus offices in major cities top the global strategy pick, with 60% of investors confirming this as preference. Thi

7、s investment-demand versus supply imbalance correlates with the consensus that core offices will increase in value up to, or more than 10% over the next 12 months. Current yield/cap rates for offices in many major cities price them at a discount to other asset types, making offices a compelling rout

8、e to deploy capital at scale. Tier-1 global markets of London, New York, Tokyo, and Paris top the wish-list. How low can you go? As competition for core assets heat up, investors should not be surprised to be outbid. The recalibration of portfolios will also likely result in a wave of non-conforming

9、 assets coming to market creating an impetus for investors to dispose early before discounted prices take hold. Yet to be seen is how deeply prices will be discounted and how the cost of retro-fitting will accentuate a shift in pricing. Large bid-ask spreads is likely to diminish market activity sho

10、rt-term, but we expect markets to reconcile on pricing by 2023. Rising construction costs the primary market constraint. In addition to impacting cost and the ability to retro-fit, the constrained supply of materials and labour creates positive and negative impacts. On a negative note, it will delay

11、 production of new supply and product. On a more positive note, it will limit space availability just as occupier demand is expanding, strengthening core and core-plus asset values in particular. It will also accelerate modern methods of construction, adding an extra dimension to the race to create

12、the new core and stimulate joint venture and M what investors wanted to pay and what vendors wanted to sell for,” says Harrington. “Thats started to move into more realistic levels, which suggests more transactional activity going into 2022.” 11 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook

13、Report I N T R O D U C T I O NA P A CE M E AT H E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U SK E Y T H E M E S Although investors continue to focus on well-established centres like London, New York, Tokyo and Sydney, fast-growing metropolitan areas such as Dallas are moving up the rankin

14、gs. Cities like Dallas present a stack of sector opportunities. Demographics and growth are driving record volumes in the Southeast and Southwest U.S., amid significant migration to the Sunbelt. Dallas in particular is also a notable U.S. hotspot for investors pursuing core and development strategie

15、s for big-box and light industrial/flex assets. It has also become a preferred location for multifamily. Alternate destinations on the radar, even with tier-1 markets back in favour Top 20 locations by popularity London20% 16% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% r

16、/o UK Sydney Washington, D.C. Dallas Berlin Singapore Stockholm New York Munich San Francisco Los Angeles Tokyo Melbourne Amsterdam Boston r/o Germany Paris Frankfurt Copenhagen 12 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook Report K E Y T H E M E SI N T R O D U C T I O NA P A CE M E AT H

17、E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U S APAC Outlook Report Contributors 13 Terence Tang Managing Director, Capital Markets & Investment Services, Asia John Marasco Managing Director, Capital Markets & Investment Services, Australia & New Zealand Nicholas Wilson Director, Head of R

18、esearch Capital Markets & Investment Services, Asia A P A CI N T R O D U C T I O NK E Y T H E M E SE M E AT H E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U S Industrial & Logistics OfficeMultifamily / BTR The top three sectors investors are most likely to invest in during 2022* Unprecedent

19、ed year expected as pent-up demand unleashed 2022 is likely to be a standout year for the APAC region, according to Colliers experts, with more investors prepared to put ambitious plans into action after a year in which there was less progress on reopening than expected. “2022 will be the year inves

20、tors start to make big decisions around asset classes and whether they diversify,” says John Marasco, Managing Director, Capital Markets & Investment Services, Australia & New Zealand. “While 2021 was strong in terms of turnover, it was disappointing in that there were higher expectations for the re

21、turn of travel and business activity. Once borders open up and more people return to the office it will be easier to determine demand and that will drive investment. 2022 will be a redefining year, because it will set new standards, and see increased global capital flows. Organisations can then star

22、t to make decisions for the medium term.” Tokyo, Japan is the #1 location to invest in during 2022 70%62%34% *These charts represents how often each asset class was chosen relative to total responses provided. For each asset class, the % figure indicates the percentage of investors surveyed who chos

23、e this specific sector, whereby each investor could choose multiple asset classes. “With pent-up demand from investors, buoyed by ample liquidity in the markets such as South Korea and Singapore, demand for commercial assets will continue, with investment activities picking up and improving througho

24、ut 2022.” - Terence Tang, Managing Director, Capital Markets & Investment Services, Asia 14 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook Report I N T R O D U C T I O NK E Y T H E M E SE M E AT H E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U SA P A C “2022 will be a redefining year

25、, because it will set new standards, and see increased global capital flows. Organisations can then start to make decisions for the medium term.” - John Marasco, Managing Director, Capital Markets & Investment Services, Australia & New Zealand 15 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook

26、 Report I N T R O D U C T I O NK E Y T H E M E SE M E AT H E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U SA P A C I&L assets are the most sought-after in APAC overall, according to the survey, with sky-high expectations for appreciation. Over 20% of investors anticipate 10-20% capital valu

27、e gains in value-add I&L assets this year, versus 9% expecting the same in value-add offices, with I&L growth supported by tailwinds and large-scale economic transformation. Diving into development While the focus on I&L is on core/core-plus assets, investors are also increasingly eyeing development

28、 opportunities, with over half of likely I&L investors keen to explore this category - particularly in the big-box/last-mile distribution sectors as these are closely tied to e-commerce trends. “The surge in e-commerce globally, with Asia Pacific leading this growth, as a result of a burgeoning cons

29、umer class in the region connecting and transacting online, has created new opportunities for growth and property investment in many key gateway cities,” says Tang. Types of industrial & logistics assets investors intend to invest in during 2022, in APAC.* 78% 75% 52% 30% 30% 10% 3% Last-Mile Distri

30、bution Big-Box / Warehouse Cold / Dark Storage Light Industrial / Flex Industrial Park / Manufacturing Container Terminal (Truck Park) Other 58% 54% 53% 43% 21% 10% Core-Plus Development Core Value-Add Opportunistic Debt Industrial & logistics interest by risk profile* *The chart represents how ofte

31、n each I&L asset was chosen relative to total responses provided. For each I&L asset, the % figure indicates the percentage of investors surveyed who chose this specific I&L asset, whereby each investor could choose multiple assets. *This chart represents how often each risk profile was chosen relat

32、ive to total responses provided. For each risk profile, the % figure indicates the percentage of investors surveyed who chose this specific risk profile, whereby each investor could choose multiple profiles. 16 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook Report I N T R O D U C T I O NK E Y

33、 T H E M E SE M E AT H E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U SA P A C 63% 60% 53% 31% 30% 7% Notwithstanding surging appetite for I&L assets, significant interest continues to surround core-plus offices, which remain the most popular asset class for regional investors in tier-1 cit

34、ies like Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo, with 63% of respondents planning to invest in these assets versus 54% last year. This signals confidence in both the stability and capital growth prospects of these markets, despite growing experimentation with remote and hybrid working models. Marasco notes a m

35、ajor flight to quality is evident in markets like Australia, with ESG becoming a more important consideration. More investors are also following the shift to decentralised offices, business parks and flex/coworking spaces. “Many office building owners/landlords are working closely with coworking pla

36、tforms to cater to a growing demand for flex space,” says Tang. “In cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore, weve also seen growing demand for business parks. Overall its a remarkably resilient asset class.” “BTR is essentially following the development of new infrastructure, which is a str

37、ategy we recommend across all asset classes,” Marasco says. “You need to look at what and where governments are building, the fundamentals of the land and invest in assets you can repurpose if required.” Multifamily/BTR is also an increasingly sought-after asset class, with investors targeting both

38、core and development projects. Nicholas Wilson, Director and Head of Research, Capital Markets, Asia, believes this trend is connected to the different propositions presented by markets like Japan, where the sector is well-established and has long attracted foreign core capital, and Australia, where

39、 its an emerging asset class with development opportunities. Four most popular locations for office* 31% Tokyo 29% Sydney 29% Singapore 26% Melbourne *This figure shows the percentage of survey respondents who expressed a preference for the Office asset class in the four most popular cities. Since t

40、he respondents were free to express a preference for Offices in more than one city, it does not represent the percentage of total preferences expressed. Office interest by risk profile* Multifamily/BTR interest by risk profile* Core-Plus Core Value-Add Development Opportunistic Debt 57% 49% 46% 44%

41、19% 10% Core-Plus Core Value-Add Development Opportunistic Debt *These charts represents how often each risk profile was chosen relative to total responses provided. For each risk profile, the % figure indicates the percentage of investors surveyed who chose this specific risk profile, whereby each

42、investor could choose multiple profiles. 17 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook Report I N T R O D U C T I O NK E Y T H E M E SE M E AT H E A M E R I C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U SA P A C The tougher approach to the pandemic adopted by many APAC markets is likely to

43、remain a headwind for retail in 2022. However the survey shows investors see significant potential for appreciation and repurposing of retail assets. Around a third of the investors mulling retail allocations are targeting opportunistic (including change of use) investments. Hotels are also an oppor

44、tunistic target, with 38% of investors looking at this sector. Tang highlighted that both hotel and retail sectors offer good opportunities in cities with large domestic markets, like Japan, Australia and Korea. “However, bid-ask spreads still need to narrow a bit,” says Wilson. Retail is a target f

45、or opportunistic investments 56% 48% 48% 44% 19% Grocery / Supermarkets / Convenience Out of Town Shopping Centres / Malls Reposition / Change of Use CBD / High Street Retail Retail Park / Power Centre *The chart represents how often each retail asset was chosen relative to total responses provided.

46、 For each retail asset, the % figure indicates the percentage of investors surveyed who chose this specific retail asset, whereby each investor could choose multiple assets. 18 Colliers Global Capital Markets 2022 Investor Outlook Report I N T R O D U C T I O NK E Y T H E M E SE M E AT H E A M E R I

47、 C A SK E Y T A K E A W A Y SC O N T A C T U SA P A C Specialised assets, particularly data centres, life sciences and healthcare, are expected to help boost investment volumes in 2022, with student housing also poised for a comeback as Australia, the regions main market, opens up to international v

48、isitors. “2022 will also be a benchmark year for healthcare, which is the only sector where were seeing really long-term leasing commitments,” Marasco notes. Tang notes these assets can require a different approach. “This interest in alternative assets will continue to grow in most Asian markets, as

49、 investors seek new avenues of growth and returns amid the changes brought about by ongoing technological evolution and healthcare needs,” he says. “However, investors would need to work closely with operators and relevant experts to identify the right opportunities in order to extract returns from

50、these specialised asset classes, which will be expected to become highly competitive.” Specialised assets, particularly data centres, life sciences and healthcare, are expected to help boost investment volumes in 2022. 17% 14% 12% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4% Interest in specialised assets by type Data C